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Oct 8, 2022 · Troutville, VA

Blue Ridge Invitational

Greenfield Recreation Park 5K Course · Historical 2022 results

Other years: 2025 · 2024 · 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 154.2), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

2 of 4 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero. JV races are not calculated on their own. Each uses its meet’s varsity adjustment plus a JV adjustment.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls 5k run

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C

71 of 71 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +41.8 s course and conditions +53.7 s in-season fitness −12.0 sCourse constant 515.47 (515)Race constant 514.93 (515)

71 used anchors± 6.7 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 71 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: the first 50 of 71, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Kerrigan Chaney · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Violet Wall · Jefferson Christian Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Randy Smith Classic (Sep 29) · and 2 more
  3. 3 Summer Hamlin · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  4. 4 Olivia Hurd · William Byrd: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 7 more
  5. 5 McKenna Spaulding · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  6. 6 Erna Dietrich · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Emma Shirey · Jefferson Christian Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Randy Smith Classic (Sep 29) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Mary Malcolm · Liberty (Bedford): Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Kasey Rosenbaum · Auburn: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 2) · and 4 more
  10. 10 Grace Ballard · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  11. 11 Hannah Parker · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  12. 12 Molly Hayden · Southwest Virginia Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  13. 13 Mickie O'Herron · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Addison Mecom · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  15. 15 Jasliene Flanders · Southwest Virginia Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  16. 16 Annie Miller · Jefferson Christian Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Randy Smith Classic (Sep 29) · and 2 more
  17. 17 Cairney Smith · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 2 more
  18. 18 Claire Glover · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 3 more
  19. 19 Abigail Spickard · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2) · and 2 more
  20. 20 Hatlyn Haggerty · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 3 more
  21. 21 Alexis Teter · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Natalee Powers · Liberty (Bedford): Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Eleanor Lichty · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  24. 24 Lauralee Spickard · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2) · and 2 more
  25. 25 Eva Coniglione · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24) · and 2 more
  26. 26 Riley Larimer · Christiansburg: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 2 more
  27. 27 Tindell Chessie · Bland County: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · Randy Smith Classic (Sep 29) · and 2 more
  28. 28 Alexa Carillo · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 3 more
  29. 29 Lea McCumsey · Christiansburg: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  30. 30 Gracie Conner · Christiansburg: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  31. 31 Brianna Adams · Liberty (Bedford): Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  32. 32 Angela Drapac · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 3 more
  33. 33 Falan Peters · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 4 more
  34. 34 Braelyn Wilson · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2) · and 2 more
  35. 35 Natalie Smith · Roanoke Catholic School: 9th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  36. 36 Elizabeth Meadows · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 3 more
  37. 37 Amelia Dietrich · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  38. 38 Danika Soares · Southwest Virginia Academy: CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24) · Vikings XC Invitational (Sep 3)
  39. 39 Anna John · Southwest Virginia Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  40. 40 Alexandra Bonilla · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 5 more
  41. 41 Georgia Miller · James River (Buchanan): VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  42. 42 Lucy Whitenack · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 5 more
  43. 43 Allison Brundrett · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24)
  44. 44 Sophia Strycharz · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 1 more
  45. 45 Jessica Dowdy · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  46. 46 Katherine Light · Auburn: Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  47. 47 Nahirana Cruz · Carroll County: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  48. 48 Lydia Horner · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 3 more
  49. 49 Lillian Kessler · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  50. 50 Bethany Beecher · William Byrd: East Mont Invitational (Oct 5) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 3 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 71 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Kerrigan ChaneyNorth Cross School · SOFinish 19:00.619:00.618:11.6128.6
2Violet WallJefferson Christian Academy · SOFinish 19:40.919:40.918:50.2115.7
3Summer HamlinChristiansburg · JRFinish 21:14.021:14.020:19.386.0
4Olivia HurdWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 21:27.221:27.220:32.081.8
5McKenna SpauldingChristiansburg · SRFinish 21:41.921:41.920:46.177.1
6Erna DietrichLord Botetourt · JRFinish 21:46.721:46.720:50.775.6
7Emma ShireyJefferson Christian Academy · FRFinish 21:53.921:53.920:57.573.3
8Mary MalcolmLiberty (Bedford) · JRFinish 22:15.022:15.021:17.766.6
9Kasey RosenbaumAuburn · JRFinish 22:19.322:19.321:21.865.2
10Grace BallardChristiansburg · FRFinish 22:26.322:26.321:28.562.9
11Hannah ParkerChristiansburg · SRFinish 22:26.922:26.921:29.162.8
12Molly HaydenSouthwest Virginia Academy · JRFinish 22:55.822:55.821:56.753.6
13Mickie O'HerronRoanoke Catholic School · JRFinish 22:56.622:56.621:57.553.3
14Addison MecomChristiansburg · FRFinish 22:57.322:57.321:58.253.1
15Jasliene FlandersSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 23:10.623:10.622:10.948.8
16Annie MillerJefferson Christian Academy · SOFinish 23:14.623:14.622:14.847.5
17Cairney SmithChristiansburg · FRFinish 23:23.923:23.922:23.744.6
18Claire GloverWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 23:40.823:40.822:39.839.2
19Abigail SpickardWilliam Campbell · JRFinish 23:44.123:44.122:42.938.2
20Hatlyn HaggertyLord Botetourt · SRFinish 23:48.223:48.222:46.936.8
21Alexis TeterNorth Cross School · SRFinish 23:56.923:56.922:55.234.1
22Natalee PowersLiberty (Bedford) · JRFinish 23:59.523:59.522:57.733.2
23Eleanor LichtyChristiansburg · FRFinish 24:03.824:03.823:01.831.9
24Lauralee SpickardWilliam Campbell · FRFinish 24:10.724:10.723:08.429.7
25Eva ConiglioneRoanoke Catholic School · FRFinish 24:19.024:19.023:16.427.0
26Riley LarimerChristiansburg · FRFinish 24:21.624:21.623:18.826.2
27Tindell ChessieBland County · SRFinish 24:22.724:22.723:19.925.8
28Alexa CarilloLord Botetourt · JRFinish 24:27.724:27.723:24.724.2
29Lea McCumseyChristiansburg · JRFinish 24:30.724:30.723:27.523.3
30Gracie ConnerChristiansburg · SOFinish 24:34.924:34.923:31.621.9
31Brianna AdamsLiberty (Bedford) · JRFinish 24:43.324:43.323:39.619.3
32Angela DrapacRoanoke Catholic School · SRFinish 25:12.125:12.124:07.210.1
33Falan PetersLord Botetourt · SRFinish 25:12.625:12.624:07.79.9
34Braelyn WilsonWilliam Campbell · JRFinish 25:41.125:41.124:35.00.8
35Natalie SmithRoanoke Catholic School · FRFinish 25:56.625:56.624:49.8—
36Elizabeth MeadowsLord Botetourt · SOFinish 26:10.326:10.325:02.9—
37Amelia DietrichLord Botetourt · JRFinish 26:15.426:15.425:07.8—
38Danika SoaresSouthwest Virginia Academy · JRFinish 26:26.126:26.125:18.0—
39Anna JohnSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 26:34.126:34.125:25.7—
40Alexandra BonillaWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 26:48.626:48.625:39.5—
41Georgia MillerJames River (Buchanan) · FRFinish 26:49.026:49.025:40.0—
42Lucy WhitenackWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 26:52.926:52.925:43.7—
43Allison BrundrettRoanoke Catholic School · JRFinish 27:00.727:00.725:51.1—
44Sophia StrycharzRoanoke Catholic School · SRFinish 27:16.227:16.226:06.0—
45Jessica DowdyAltavista · JRFinish 27:20.527:20.526:10.1—
46Katherine LightAuburn · JRFinish 27:42.927:42.926:31.5—
47Nahirana CruzCarroll County · JRFinish 27:45.027:45.026:33.5—
48Lydia HornerNorth Cross School · JRFinish 28:01.928:01.926:49.7—
49Lillian KesslerRoanoke Catholic School · FRFinish 28:09.128:09.126:56.6—
50Bethany BeecherWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 28:12.028:12.026:59.4—
Show all 71 results (21 more)Showing all 71 results · hide rows 51–71
Girls results, rows 51 to 71 of 71
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Karis HambrickLord Botetourt · JRFinish 28:16.628:16.627:03.8—
52Tamara RunnelsAltavista · FRFinish 28:22.028:22.027:09.0—
53Katelyn WheatleyCarroll County · JRFinish 28:31.028:31.027:17.5—
54Anahi Muniz-HernandezWilliam Fleming · SOFinish 28:32.528:32.527:19.0—
55Anna DavidsonJames River (Buchanan) · FRFinish 29:15.429:15.428:00.0—
56Micah AndrewsAltavista · SRFinish 29:22.229:22.228:06.5—
57Jillian HarrisLord Botetourt · SOFinish 29:30.829:30.828:14.8—
58Victoria Race-WallerJames River (Buchanan) · SOFinish 29:51.929:51.928:35.0—
59Riley RothWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 29:53.229:53.228:36.2—
60Sarah ReynoldsAltavista · SOFinish 29:58.629:58.628:41.4—
61Kayli LindsayLiberty (Bedford) · SRFinish 30:00.730:00.728:43.4—
62Julia-Rose SpearsSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 30:10.230:10.228:52.5—
63Jacmyn RinehartJames River (Buchanan) · FRFinish 30:42.730:42.729:23.6—
64Ashlyn NewmanCarroll County · JRFinish 30:52.930:52.929:33.4—
65Elizabeth DixonWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 31:08.731:08.729:48.5—
66Yazim Lopez-CapoJames River (Buchanan) · SRFinish 31:10.731:10.729:50.4—
67Haedyn WilsonLiberty (Bedford) · JRFinish 32:06.632:06.630:43.9—
68Willow SavorAltavista · SOFinish 32:16.332:16.330:53.2—
69Kailey LesterLiberty (Bedford) · SRFinish 34:49.734:49.733:20.0—
70Lilly WrightWilliam Campbell · FRFinish 38:24.538:24.536:45.6—
71Iz'Real SmithWilliam Campbell · SOFinish 39:47.839:47.838:05.3—

GIRLS · JV · 5,000 M

JV Mixed 5000 Meter Run

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D

13 of 13 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +48.9 s course and conditions +60.9 s in-season fitness −12.0 sCourse constant 525.39 (525)Race constant 524.86 (525)

Unavailable used anchors± 20.9 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Girls results, places shown 1 to 13 of 13 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Jenna SaiaChristiansburg · FRFinish 25:19.125:19.124:05.710.6
2Grace WebbChristiansburg · FRFinish 25:21.925:21.924:08.39.7
3Heidi WienkeWilliam Byrd · 8Finish 26:46.626:46.625:28.9—
4Aleah DunnChristiansburg · FRFinish 31:03.731:03.729:33.7—
5Disha TalajiaChristiansburg · SOFinish 31:42.831:42.830:10.8—
6Arianna KristaWilliam Byrd · 8Finish 31:57.431:57.430:24.7—
7Megan HigginsWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 33:30.433:30.431:53.2—
8Emily MurrayLord Botetourt · FRFinish 34:03.934:03.932:25.1—
9Myrena PetersWilliam Fleming · SRFinish 34:10.334:10.332:31.2—
10Meredith ClaterbaughLord Botetourt · SOFinish 36:06.836:06.834:22.1—
11Riley WolfordLord Botetourt · FRFinish 37:10.237:10.235:22.4—
12Annalise CoonLord Botetourt · SOFinish 37:18.137:18.135:29.9—
13Payton RamseyWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 41:30.441:30.439:30.0—

Blue Ridge Invitational, Oct 8, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.