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Sep 24, 2022 · Rocky Mount, VA

CHARCS Private School Invitational

Christian Heritage XC Course · Historical 2022 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 144.2), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

1 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls 5000 Meter Run

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C

43 of 43 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +49.7 s course and conditions +36.5 s in-season fitness +13.2 sCourse constant 508.44 (508)Race constant 513.00 (513)

38 used anchors± 7.6 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 38 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 38, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Kerrigan Chaney · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Violet Wall · Jefferson Christian Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  3. 3 Priscilla Keller · Roanoke Valley Christian: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  4. 4 Emma Shirey · Jefferson Christian Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Georgia Babish · Grace Christian School (Staunton): Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Molly Hayden · Southwest Virginia Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  7. 7 Isabelah Cauley · Christian Heritage Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  8. 8 Jessica Dryer · Grace Christian School (Staunton): VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  9. 9 Jasliene Flanders · Southwest Virginia Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Maddie Harper · Grace Christian School (Staunton): VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Alexis Teter · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Ainsley Myles · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29)
  13. 13 Mickie O'Herron · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Kaitlyn Harper · Grace Christian School (Staunton): VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  15. 15 Annie Miller · Jefferson Christian Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Sophia Bradley · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Angela Drapac · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 3 more
  18. 18 Eva Coniglione · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  19. 20 Emily Eanes · Faith Christian School: Vikings XC Invitational (Sep 3)
  20. 21 Addison Becker · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 2 more
  21. 22 Danika Soares · Southwest Virginia Academy: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · Vikings XC Invitational (Sep 3)
  22. 23 Lillian Kessler · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  23. 24 Anna John · Southwest Virginia Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  24. 25 Lydia Horner · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 3 more
  25. 26 Ashley Crosby · Faith Christian School: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · Vikings XC Invitational (Sep 3) · and 1 more
  26. 27 Molly Murdock · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 1 more
  27. 28 Rachelle Brown · Faith Christian School: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · Vikings XC Invitational (Sep 3) · and 1 more
  28. 29 Sophia Strycharz · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 1 more
  29. 30 Grace Law · Roanoke Valley Christian: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  30. 31 Savannah Jones · Grace Christian School (Staunton): VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  31. 32 Karly Smith · Roanoke Catholic School: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  32. 33 Barrett Cundiff · Roanoke Catholic School: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  33. 34 Allison Brundrett · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  34. 35 Eliza Dowdy · Southwest Virginia Academy: Vikings XC Invitational (Sep 3)
  35. 37 Bailey Cundiff · Roanoke Catholic School: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  36. 40 Hailey Nichols · Faith Christian School: Vikings XC Invitational (Sep 3) · 9th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  37. 41 Gabby Lee · Roanoke Valley Christian: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  38. 43 Ava Ridinger · Faith Christian School: Vikings XC Invitational (Sep 3) · 9th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 43 of 43 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Kerrigan ChaneyNorth Cross School · SOFinish 19:16.519:16.518:31.0122.1
2Violet WallJefferson Christian Academy · SOFinish 20:02.620:02.619:15.3107.4
3Priscilla KellerRoanoke Valley Christian · SRFinish 21:17.621:17.620:27.483.3
4Emma ShireyJefferson Christian Academy · FRFinish 21:48.921:48.920:57.473.3
5Georgia BabishGrace Christian School (Staunton) · FRFinish 22:01.822:01.821:09.869.2
6Molly HaydenSouthwest Virginia Academy · JRFinish 22:32.422:32.421:39.259.4
7Isabelah CauleyChristian Heritage Academy · JRFinish 22:38.422:38.421:44.957.5
8Jessica DryerGrace Christian School (Staunton) · JRFinish 22:38.622:38.621:45.257.4
9Jasliene FlandersSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 22:47.022:47.021:53.254.7
10Maddie HarperGrace Christian School (Staunton) · JRFinish 22:48.622:48.621:54.754.2
11Alexis TeterNorth Cross School · SRFinish 22:51.122:51.121:57.153.4
12Ainsley MylesNorth Cross School · 8Finish 22:56.022:56.022:01.951.8
13Mickie O'HerronRoanoke Catholic School · JRFinish 23:14.923:14.922:20.045.8
14Kaitlyn HarperGrace Christian School (Staunton) · SOFinish 23:34.223:34.222:38.639.6
15Annie MillerJefferson Christian Academy · SOFinish 23:49.423:49.422:53.234.7
16Sophia BradleyRoanoke Catholic School · JRFinish 24:37.024:37.023:38.919.5
17Angela DrapacRoanoke Catholic School · SRFinish 24:52.624:52.623:53.914.5
18Eva ConiglioneRoanoke Catholic School · FRFinish 25:00.125:00.124:01.112.1
19Alyssa ClementTimberlake Christian School · SRFinish 25:50.225:50.224:49.2—
20Emily EanesFaith Christian School · SRFinish 25:54.025:54.024:52.9—
21Addison BeckerRoanoke Catholic School · SOFinish 26:00.626:00.624:59.2—
22Danika SoaresSouthwest Virginia Academy · JRFinish 26:06.026:06.025:04.4—
23Lillian KesslerRoanoke Catholic School · FRFinish 26:18.126:18.125:16.0—
24Anna JohnSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 26:25.026:25.025:22.7—
25Lydia HornerNorth Cross School · JRFinish 26:51.726:51.725:48.3—
26Ashley CrosbyFaith Christian School · SRFinish 27:24.927:24.926:20.2—
27Molly MurdockRoanoke Catholic School · FRFinish 27:27.827:27.826:23.0—
28Rachelle BrownFaith Christian School · JRFinish 27:38.327:38.326:33.1—
29Sophia StrycharzRoanoke Catholic School · SRFinish 28:22.428:22.427:15.4—
30Grace LawRoanoke Valley Christian · JRFinish 28:39.228:39.227:31.6—
31Savannah JonesGrace Christian School (Staunton) · SRFinish 29:01.829:01.827:53.3—
32Karly SmithRoanoke Catholic School · FRFinish 29:43.829:43.828:33.7—
33Barrett CundiffRoanoke Catholic School · FRFinish 29:47.129:47.128:36.8—
34Allison BrundrettRoanoke Catholic School · JRFinish 29:49.129:49.128:38.7—
35Eliza DowdySouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 30:10.030:10.028:58.8—
36Gabriella RodrizuezTimberlake Christian School · SOFinish 30:22.230:22.229:10.5—
37Bailey CundiffRoanoke Catholic School · JRFinish 31:25.531:25.530:11.3—
38Caroline BrelandTimberlake Christian School · JRFinish 32:09.932:09.930:53.9—
39Audrey CloranTimberlake Christian School · SOFinish 32:50.632:50.631:33.1—
40Hailey NicholsFaith Christian School · SOFinish 33:09.433:09.431:51.1—
41Gabby LeeRoanoke Valley Christian · JRFinish 33:45.333:45.332:25.6—
42Mary Helen SeayTimberlake Christian School · JRFinish 35:20.135:20.133:56.7—
43Ava RidingerFaith Christian School · SOFinish 36:15.236:15.234:49.6—

CHARCS Private School Invitational, Sep 24, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.