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Sep 3, 2022 · Roanoke, VA

Vikings XC Invitational

Northside HS XC Course · Historical 2022 results

Other years: 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 148.6), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

2 of 4 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero. JV races are not calculated on their own. Each uses its meet’s varsity adjustment plus a JV adjustment.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls 5000 Meter Run

Copy link to Girls varsity
C

57 of 59 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +238.2 s course and conditions +180.4 s in-season fitness +57.8 sCourse constant 571.05 (571)Race constant 583.46 (583)

55 used anchors± 9.4 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 55 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: the first 50 of 55, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Kristen Werner · Pacers Homeschool: Pole Green XC Classic (Sep 10)
  2. 2 Anna Fletcher · Pacers Homeschool: Pole Green XC Classic (Sep 10)
  3. 3 Sophie Mast · Pacers Homeschool: Pole Green XC Classic (Sep 10)
  4. 4 Emma Ervi · Pacers Homeschool: Pole Green XC Classic (Sep 10)
  5. 5 Sadie Wagner · Hidden Valley: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  6. 6 Erin Loker · Eastern Mennonite School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · BRAC Championships (Oct 29) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Hannah Parker · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  8. 8 Sarah Arner · Hidden Valley: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  9. 9 Emma Harris · Pacers Homeschool: Pole Green XC Classic (Sep 10)
  10. 10 Olivia Hurd · William Byrd: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 7 more
  11. 11 McKenna Spaulding · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  12. 12 Molly Hayden · Southwest Virginia Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  13. 13 Jasliene Flanders · Southwest Virginia Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  14. 14 Izzy Norton · Pacers Homeschool: Pole Green XC Classic (Sep 10)
  15. 15 Kylie White · Pacers Homeschool: Pole Green XC Classic (Sep 10)
  16. 16 Hatlyn Haggerty · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Megan Hawley · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 4 more
  18. 18 Addison Mecom · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  19. 19 Grace Ballard · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  20. 20 Summer Hamlin · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  21. 21 Marissa Martin · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 5 more
  22. 22 Elizabeth Bocock · Salem (Salem): VHSL Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  23. 23 Valerie Germeroth · Brookville: Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  24. 24 Emma Grisso · Staunton River: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · and 1 more
  25. 25 Lauren Stenzel · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 3 more
  26. 26 Leila Ramey · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  27. 27 Eleanor Lichty · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  28. 28 Lauren Murray · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  29. 29 Gracie Conner · Christiansburg: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  30. 30 Sarah Anderson · Brookville: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  31. 31 Emily Eanes · Faith Christian School: CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24)
  32. 32 Lyndsye Rothkopf · Salem (Salem): VHSL Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  33. 33 Alexa Carillo · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 3 more
  34. 34 Alexandra Bonilla · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 5 more
  35. 35 Danika Soares · Southwest Virginia Academy: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24)
  36. 36 Falan Peters · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 4 more
  37. 37 Anna John · Southwest Virginia Academy: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  38. 38 Lauren Thomason · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  39. 39 Ashley Crosby · Faith Christian School: CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · and 1 more
  40. 40 Sadie Alphin · Bath County: East Mont Invitational (Oct 5) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  41. 41 Rachelle Brown · Faith Christian School: CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · and 1 more
  42. 42 Riley Roth · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 5 more
  43. 44 Ava Ridinger · Faith Christian School: CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24) · 9th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  44. 45 Emily Murray · Lord Botetourt: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  45. 46 Bethany Beecher · William Byrd: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · East Mont Invitational (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  46. 47 Sadie Mace · Brookville: Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  47. 48 Riley Wolford · Lord Botetourt: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  48. 49 Eliza Dowdy · Southwest Virginia Academy: CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24)
  49. 50 Hailey Nichols · Faith Christian School: CHARCS Private School Invitational (Sep 24) · 9th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  50. 51 Julia-Rose Spears · Southwest Virginia Academy: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 59 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Kristen WernerPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 23:01.423:01.419:30.8102.2
2Anna FletcherPacers Homeschool · JRFinish 23:20.523:20.519:47.096.8
3Sophie MastPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 23:41.423:41.420:04.790.9
4Emma ErviPacers Homeschool · JRFinish 23:50.323:50.320:12.288.4
5Sadie WagnerHidden Valley · SRFinish 24:13.324:13.320:31.781.9
6Erin LokerEastern Mennonite School · JRFinish 24:45.724:45.720:59.272.7
7Hannah ParkerChristiansburg · SRFinish 24:48.924:48.921:01.971.8
8Sarah ArnerHidden Valley · JRFinish 24:52.924:52.921:05.370.7
9Emma HarrisPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 24:58.724:58.721:10.269.1
10Olivia HurdWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 25:09.625:09.621:19.566.0
11McKenna SpauldingChristiansburg · SRFinish 25:37.025:37.021:42.758.2
12Molly HaydenSouthwest Virginia Academy · JRFinish 25:45.125:45.121:49.556.0
13Jasliene FlandersSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 25:52.125:52.121:55.554.0
14Izzy NortonPacers Homeschool · Grade not recordedFinish 26:12.526:12.522:12.848.2
15Kylie WhitePacers Homeschool · JRFinish 26:18.426:18.422:17.846.5
16Hatlyn HaggertyLord Botetourt · SRFinish 26:28.126:28.122:26.043.8
17Megan HawleyStaunton River · SRFinish 26:34.926:34.922:31.741.9
18Addison MecomChristiansburg · FRFinish 26:39.126:39.122:35.340.7
19Grace BallardChristiansburg · FRFinish 26:50.226:50.222:44.737.6
20Summer HamlinChristiansburg · JRFinish 27:07.227:07.222:59.132.8
21Marissa MartinNorthside · JRFinish 28:05.928:05.923:48.916.2
22Elizabeth BocockSalem (Salem) · SRFinish 28:29.728:29.724:09.09.5
23Valerie GermerothBrookville · JRFinish 28:31.028:31.024:10.19.1
24Emma GrissoStaunton River · FRFinish 28:39.428:39.424:17.26.7
25Lauren StenzelStaunton River · FRFinish 28:40.628:40.624:18.26.4
26Leila RameyHidden Valley · SOFinish 28:57.628:57.624:32.71.6
27Eleanor LichtyChristiansburg · FRFinish 28:59.928:59.924:34.70.9
28Lauren MurrayHidden Valley · JRFinish 29:25.029:25.024:55.9—
29Gracie ConnerChristiansburg · SOFinish 29:50.629:50.625:17.6—
30Sarah AndersonBrookville · SOFinish 30:01.230:01.225:26.6—
31Emily EanesFaith Christian School · SRFinish 30:03.530:03.525:28.6—
32Lyndsye RothkopfSalem (Salem) · JRFinish 30:05.730:05.725:30.4—
33Alexa CarilloLord Botetourt · JRFinish 30:07.530:07.525:32.0—
34Alexandra BonillaWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 30:08.230:08.225:32.5—
35Danika SoaresSouthwest Virginia Academy · JRFinish 30:42.630:42.626:01.7—
36Falan PetersLord Botetourt · SRFinish 31:06.531:06.526:21.9—
37Anna JohnSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 31:13.231:13.226:27.6—
38Lauren ThomasonNorthside · SOFinish 31:15.131:15.126:29.2—
39Ashley CrosbyFaith Christian School · SRFinish 31:20.531:20.526:33.8—
40Sadie AlphinBath County · JRFinish 31:28.231:28.226:40.3—
41Rachelle BrownFaith Christian School · JRFinish 31:39.031:39.026:49.5—
42Riley RothWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 32:36.132:36.127:37.9—
43Riley SmithBrookville · SOFinish 32:39.132:39.127:40.4—
44Ava RidingerFaith Christian School · SOFinish 34:04.134:04.128:52.5—
45Emily MurrayLord Botetourt · FRFinish 34:23.534:23.529:08.9—
46Bethany BeecherWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 34:35.634:35.629:19.2—
47Sadie MaceBrookville · JRFinish 34:52.934:52.929:33.8—
48Riley WolfordLord Botetourt · FRFinish 34:57.734:57.729:37.9—
49Eliza DowdySouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 35:03.035:03.029:42.4—
50Hailey NicholsFaith Christian School · SOFinish 35:58.835:58.830:29.6—
Show all 59 results (9 more)Showing all 59 results · hide rows 51–59
Girls results, rows 51 to 59 of 59
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Julia-Rose SpearsSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 36:21.736:21.730:49.1—
52Riley WaldronStaunton River · FRFinish 36:39.936:39.931:04.5—
53Elizabeth DixonWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 36:50.936:50.931:13.8—
54Savannah HardeeStaunton River · SOFinish 38:54.938:54.932:58.9—
55Annalise CoonLord Botetourt · SOFinish 41:50.441:50.435:27.6—
56Meredith ClaterbaughLord Botetourt · SOFinish 42:40.942:40.936:10.5—
57Emma RupeWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 42:52.542:52.536:20.3—
58Caitlin HaleyBath County · FRFinish 53:50.053:50.0UnavailableUnavailable
59Megan HigginsWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 60:50.660:50.6UnavailableUnavailable

2 rows: time outside the rated range.

GIRLS · JV · 5,000 M

JV Mixed 5000 Meter Run

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D

14 of 15 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +246.4 s course and conditions +188.3 s in-season fitness +58.1 sCourse constant 584.22 (584)Race constant 598.19 (598)

Unavailable used anchors± 21.9 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Girls results, places shown 1 to 15 of 15 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Cairney SmithChristiansburg · FRFinish 27:49.527:49.523:26.923.5
2Hope WernerPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 28:42.428:42.424:11.68.6
3Riley LarimerChristiansburg · FRFinish 29:31.229:31.224:52.7—
4Heidi BisseyChristiansburg · SOFinish 30:35.230:35.225:46.6—
5Rachel BirchPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 30:55.830:55.826:03.9—
6Grace WebbChristiansburg · FRFinish 31:43.431:43.426:44.1—
7Rebekah IsenhourPacers Homeschool · JRFinish 33:01.333:01.327:49.8—
8Ella AmosPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 34:12.634:12.628:49.8—
9Jenna SaiaChristiansburg · FRFinish 34:13.334:13.328:50.4—
10Aleah DunnChristiansburg · FRFinish 37:43.737:43.731:47.7—
11Ariana MarkhamNorthside · FRFinish 38:46.838:46.832:40.9—
12Lydia HarrisPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 39:30.839:30.833:18.0—
13Abigail BirchPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 42:19.042:19.035:39.8—
14Lily BrandowChristiansburg · FRFinish 42:41.442:41.435:58.6—
15Isabella DavisPacers Homeschool · JRFinish 50:12.950:12.9UnavailableUnavailable

1 row: time outside the rated range.

Vikings XC Invitational, Sep 3, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Not rated. The finish time is outside the range we rate (12:00–45:00 for a 5K), so it has no adjustment or rating.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.