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Sep 2, 2023 · Roanoke, VA

Vikings XC Invitational

Northside HS XC Course · Historical 2023 results

Other years: 2022

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 156.4), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

2 of 4 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero. JV races are not calculated on their own. Each uses its meet’s varsity adjustment plus a JV adjustment.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Vikings XC Invitational - 9/2/2023 Northside HS XC Course, Roanoke, VA Girls Varsity 5000 Meter Run

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C

44 of 44 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +112.0 s course and conditions +56.7 s in-season fitness +55.3 sCourse constant 517.67 (518)Race constant 530.76 (531)

43 used anchors± 8.1 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 43 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 43, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Allie Zealand · Pacers Homeschool: Foot Locker Nationals Presented By HOKA (Dec 9) · Nike Cross Nationals (Dec 2) · and 5 more
  2. 2 Kerrigan Chaney · North Cross School: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · and 7 more
  3. 3 Anna Fletcher · Pacers Homeschool: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Emma Ervi · Pacers Homeschool: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · and 3 more
  5. 5 Hannah Werner · Pacers Homeschool: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Summer Hamlin · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  7. 7 Kylie White · Pacers Homeschool: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Molly Hayden · Pacers Homeschool: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · and 3 more
  9. 9 Natalie White · Bath County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  10. 10 Ainsley Myles · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3) · and 6 more
  11. 11 Riley Larimer · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · and 6 more
  12. 12 Olivia Wilbon · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · and 6 more
  13. 13 Heidi Wienke · William Byrd: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · and 6 more
  14. 14 Grace Webb · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  15. 15 Grace Ballard · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  16. 16 Gracie Conner · Christiansburg: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  17. 17 Ellie Eddleton · Christiansburg: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 23) · and 1 more
  18. 18 Lauren Murray · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 6 more
  19. 19 Lea McCumsey · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  20. 20 Leila Ramey · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 6 more
  21. 21 Sadie Alphin · Bath County: VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Lacy Davis · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · and 5 more
  23. 23 Grace Kinzie · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 6 more
  24. 24 Riley Waldron · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 4 more
  25. 25 Fiona Ramey · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 6 more
  26. 26 Braelyn Handy · Northside: Cougar Clash Invitational (Sep 30) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 23) · and 2 more
  27. 27 Grace Woodcock · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 2 more
  28. 28 Elena Mullen · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 3 more
  29. 29 Emma Grisso · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 3 more
  30. 30 Meghan Kidwell · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  31. 31 Maggie Howard · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · and 5 more
  32. 32 Alexia Allen · Giles: VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 3 more
  33. 33 Maggie Bryant · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 5 more
  34. 34 Rachel Blankenship · Giles: VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · East Mont Invitational (Oct 4) · and 2 more
  35. 35 Addy Weaver · Hidden Valley: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · and 1 more
  36. 37 Ember Wiley · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 24) · and 4 more
  37. 38 Kate Chadwick · Hidden Valley: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 23) · and 2 more
  38. 39 Jadelynn Lane · Giles: VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 2 more
  39. 40 Elizabeth Dixon · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 24) · and 5 more
  40. 41 Jordyn Hutchison · Eastern Montgomery: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  41. 42 Jillian Harris · Lord Botetourt: Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 24) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 3 more
  42. 43 Skylar Fitzgerald · William Byrd: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9)
  43. 44 Abbey Phillips · Bath County: VHSL Region 1C Cross Country Championship (Oct 30) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 2 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 44 of 44 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Allie ZealandPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 20:51.320:51.319:23.4106.4
2Kerrigan ChaneyNorth Cross School · JRFinish 21:10.521:10.519:41.2100.4
3Anna FletcherPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 22:17.722:17.720:43.779.6
4Emma ErviPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 22:17.722:17.720:43.779.6
5Hannah WernerPacers Homeschool · JRFinish 22:22.222:22.220:47.978.2
6Summer HamlinChristiansburg · SRFinish 22:24.022:24.020:49.577.6
7Kylie WhitePacers Homeschool · SRFinish 22:25.122:25.120:50.677.3
8Molly HaydenPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 22:49.622:49.621:13.469.7
9Natalie WhiteBath County · SRFinish 22:55.722:55.721:19.167.8
10Ainsley MylesNorth Cross School · FRFinish 23:55.623:55.622:14.749.2
11Riley LarimerChristiansburg · SOFinish 24:18.324:18.322:35.842.2
12Olivia WilbonEastern Montgomery · JRFinish 24:33.324:33.322:49.837.6
13Heidi WienkeWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 24:57.524:57.523:12.330.1
14Grace WebbChristiansburg · SOFinish 25:02.125:02.123:16.528.7
15Grace BallardChristiansburg · SOFinish 25:09.125:09.123:23.026.5
16Gracie ConnerChristiansburg · JRFinish 25:11.225:11.223:25.025.8
17Ellie EddletonChristiansburg · SOFinish 25:13.225:13.223:26.925.2
18Lauren MurrayHidden Valley · SRFinish 25:24.325:24.323:37.221.8
19Lea McCumseyChristiansburg · SRFinish 25:26.925:26.923:39.621.0
20Leila RameyHidden Valley · JRFinish 25:38.325:38.323:50.317.4
21Sadie AlphinBath County · SRFinish 25:44.925:44.923:56.415.4
22Lacy DavisEastern Montgomery · JRFinish 26:01.326:01.324:11.610.3
23Grace KinzieHidden Valley · JRFinish 26:04.126:04.124:14.29.4
24Riley WaldronStaunton River · JRFinish 26:12.726:12.724:22.26.8
25Fiona RameyHidden Valley · FRFinish 26:15.726:15.724:25.05.8
26Braelyn HandyNorthside · FRFinish 26:23.326:23.324:32.13.5
27Grace WoodcockWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 26:32.626:32.624:40.70.6
28Elena MullenWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 26:41.926:41.924:49.3—
29Emma GrissoStaunton River · SOFinish 27:08.827:08.825:14.3—
30Meghan KidwellEastern Montgomery · JRFinish 27:48.627:48.625:51.3—
31Maggie HowardEastern Montgomery · SOFinish 27:56.727:56.725:58.8—
32Alexia AllenGiles · JRFinish 28:14.428:14.426:15.3—
33Maggie BryantHidden Valley · FRFinish 28:15.828:15.826:16.7—
34Rachel BlankenshipGiles · JRFinish 28:16.328:16.326:17.2—
35Addy WeaverHidden Valley · FRFinish 28:23.528:23.526:23.8—
36Alexis AnglinLord Botetourt · SOFinish 28:31.728:31.726:31.4—
37Ember WileyLord Botetourt · FRFinish 29:37.229:37.227:32.3—
38Kate ChadwickHidden Valley · SOFinish 30:26.330:26.328:18.0—
39Jadelynn LaneGiles · SOFinish 30:52.730:52.728:42.6—
40Elizabeth DixonWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 30:55.930:55.928:45.5—
41Jordyn HutchisonEastern Montgomery · JRFinish 31:05.431:05.428:54.3—
42Jillian HarrisLord Botetourt · JRFinish 31:38.331:38.329:24.9—
43Skylar FitzgeraldWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 33:44.333:44.331:22.1—
44Abbey PhillipsBath County · SRFinish 40:48.340:48.337:56.2—

GIRLS · JV · 5,000 M

Mixed JV 5000 Meter Run

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D

15 of 15 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +119.5 s course and conditions +63.8 s in-season fitness +55.6 sCourse constant 526.26 (526)Race constant 542.13 (542)

Unavailable used anchors± 21.4 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Girls results, places shown 1 to 15 of 15 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Rachel BirchPacers Homeschool · SOFinish 23:57.423:57.422:08.851.2
2Hope WernerPacers Homeschool · SOFinish 24:47.324:47.322:55.035.8
3Kaylin LarimerChristiansburg · FRFinish 25:07.825:07.823:13.929.5
4Jenna SaiaChristiansburg · SOFinish 29:38.129:38.127:23.8—
5Ella AmosPacers Homeschool · SOFinish 30:44.230:44.228:24.9—
6Abigail BirchPacers Homeschool · SOFinish 30:47.730:47.728:28.1—
7Keri DraperPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 31:04.631:04.628:43.8—
8Lydia NovickHidden Valley · FRFinish 31:45.631:45.629:21.7—
9Samantha IrbyPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 33:02.133:02.130:32.4—
10Isabella DavisPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 33:36.833:36.831:04.5—
11Lydia HarrisPacers Homeschool · SOFinish 33:59.433:59.431:25.4—
12Lily BrandowChristiansburg · SOFinish 34:50.534:50.532:12.6—
13Lilly JettPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 35:19.835:19.832:39.7—
14Shelby GoudesHidden Valley · FRFinish 36:56.736:56.734:09.3—
15Madeline KinneyHidden Valley · FRFinish 37:05.337:05.334:17.2—

Vikings XC Invitational, Sep 2, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.