All meets

Oct 21, 2023 · Forest, VA

Runnin' with the Wolves

Thomas Jefferson's Poplar Forest · Historical 2023 results

Report a problem with this meet

Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 168.6), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

2 of 4 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero. JV races are not calculated on their own. Each uses its meet’s varsity adjustment plus a JV adjustment.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls 5k

C

65 of 65 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +78.0 s course and conditions +102.6 s in-season fitness −24.6 sCourse constant 534.65 (535)Race constant 532.57 (533)

64 used anchors± 6.5 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 64 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: the first 50 of 64, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Allie Zealand · Pacers Homeschool: Foot Locker Nationals Presented By HOKA (Dec 9) · Nike Cross Nationals (Dec 2) · and 5 more
  2. 2 Zoie Lamanna · Jefferson Forest: Foot Locker Nationals Presented By HOKA (Dec 9) · Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Emma Ervi · Pacers Homeschool: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Violet Wall · Jefferson Christian Academy: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Anna Fletcher · Pacers Homeschool: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Ellen Addison · Manchester: VHSL CLASS 6A REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (Nov 4) · Great American XC Festival (Oct 6)
  7. 7 Hannah Werner · Pacers Homeschool: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · and 3 more
  8. 8 Elizabeth Middlesworth · Louisa County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · Jefferson District Championship (Oct 24) · and 5 more
  9. 9 Molly Hayden · Pacers Homeschool: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Kylie White · Pacers Homeschool: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Ellen Weimer · Powhatan: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 1) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Lillie Ring · Brookville: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16) · and 1 more
  13. 13 Brooke Nolen · Manchester: VHSL CLASS 6A REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (Nov 4) · Great American XC Festival (Oct 6)
  14. 14 Sandra Davenport · Louisa County: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · and 6 more
  15. 15 Jenna Nolen · Manchester: VHSL CLASS 6A REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (Nov 4) · Great American XC Festival (Oct 6)
  16. 16 Rachel Birch · Pacers Homeschool: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Emma Shirey · Jefferson Christian Academy: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  18. 18 Caroline Allen · Jefferson Forest: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  19. 19 Everly Shanks · Glenvar: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · and 7 more
  20. 20 Valeria Castillo · Glenvar: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · and 7 more
  21. 21 Jasliene Flanders · Southwest Virginia Academy: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · and 1 more
  22. 22 Ella Wagner · Jefferson Forest: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Riley Waldron · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 4 more
  24. 24 Ella Lane · E. C. Glass: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9)
  25. 25 Eva Francis · Jefferson Forest: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  26. 26 Alexandra Petty · E. C. Glass: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9)
  27. 27 Claire Ramsey · E. C. Glass: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9)
  28. 28 Miranda Hart · Brookville: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16) · and 1 more
  29. 29 Emma Pope · Glenvar: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  30. 30 Leila Ramey · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 6 more
  31. 31 Anna Hall · Glenvar: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · and 7 more
  32. 32 Paizlie Robertson · Manchester: VHSL CLASS 6A REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (Nov 4) · Great American XC Festival (Oct 6)
  33. 33 Brooklyn Nemec · Louisa County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · Jefferson District Championship (Oct 24) · and 5 more
  34. 34 Fiona Ramey · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 6 more
  35. 35 Lauren Murray · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 6 more
  36. 36 Lydia Novick · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  37. 37 Bailey Thomas · Southwest Virginia Academy: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16)
  38. 38 Grace Kinzie · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 6 more
  39. 39 Abigail Reutinger · Louisa County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · Jefferson District Championship (Oct 24) · and 5 more
  40. 40 Abigail Aurand · Louisa County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · Jefferson District Championship (Oct 24) · and 5 more
  41. 41 Pikea Reynolds-Saint · Hidden Valley: Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · Cougar Clash Invitational (Sep 30) · and 3 more
  42. 42 Maggie Bryant · Hidden Valley: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 5 more
  43. 43 Julianne Gibbs · Jefferson Forest: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  44. 44 Chloe Keith · Jefferson Forest: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Great American XC Festival (Oct 6) · and 1 more
  45. 45 Joanna Killeen · Glenvar: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · and 6 more
  46. 46 McKenzie Duncan · Jefferson Forest: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  47. 47 Maylin Hopkins · Jefferson Christian Academy: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  48. 48 Emma Grisso · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Cougar Clash Invitational (Sep 30) · and 3 more
  49. 49 Simone Spasojevich · Mills Godwin: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · VTCA Fall Classic (Sep 30)
  50. 50 Annie George · Glenvar: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · and 7 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 65 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Allie ZealandPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 19:38.219:38.218:10.2130.8
2Zoie LamannaJefferson Forest · SRFinish 19:43.919:43.918:15.5129.0
3Emma ErviPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 20:22.920:22.918:51.5117.0
4Violet WallJefferson Christian Academy · JRFinish 20:34.920:34.919:02.7113.3
5Anna FletcherPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 20:39.720:39.719:07.1111.8
6Ellen AddisonManchester · FRFinish 21:28.921:28.919:52.696.6
7Hannah WernerPacers Homeschool · JRFinish 21:29.021:29.019:52.796.6
8Elizabeth MiddlesworthLouisa County · SOFinish 21:43.721:43.720:06.392.1
9Molly HaydenPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 22:02.622:02.620:23.886.2
10Kylie WhitePacers Homeschool · SRFinish 22:13.222:13.220:33.683.0
11Ellen WeimerPowhatan · JRFinish 22:25.122:25.120:44.679.3
12Lillie RingBrookville · FRFinish 22:32.422:32.420:51.477.0
13Brooke NolenManchester · SRFinish 22:41.722:41.721:00.074.2
14Sandra DavenportLouisa County · JRFinish 22:45.622:45.621:03.673.0
15Jenna NolenManchester · SRFinish 22:48.922:48.921:06.671.9
16Rachel BirchPacers Homeschool · SOFinish 23:00.623:00.621:17.568.3
17Emma ShireyJefferson Christian Academy · SOFinish 23:09.523:09.521:25.765.6
18Caroline AllenJefferson Forest · SRFinish 23:14.223:14.221:30.164.1
19Everly ShanksGlenvar · SOFinish 23:19.923:19.921:35.362.4
20Valeria CastilloGlenvar · JRFinish 23:28.223:28.221:43.059.8
21Jasliene FlandersSouthwest Virginia Academy · SOFinish 24:06.324:06.322:18.348.1
22Ella WagnerJefferson Forest · FRFinish 24:12.124:12.122:23.646.3
23Riley WaldronStaunton River · JRFinish 24:17.024:17.022:28.244.8
24Ella LaneE. C. Glass · SRFinish 24:41.124:41.122:50.537.3
25Eva FrancisJefferson Forest · JRFinish 25:04.525:04.523:12.130.1
26Alexandra PettyE. C. Glass · SOFinish 25:10.425:10.423:17.628.3
27Claire RamseyE. C. Glass · SOFinish 25:10.825:10.823:17.928.2
28Miranda HartBrookville · FRFinish 25:11.325:11.323:18.428.0
29Emma PopeGlenvar · SRFinish 25:13.925:13.923:20.827.2
30Leila RameyHidden Valley · JRFinish 25:23.625:23.623:29.824.2
31Anna HallGlenvar · SOFinish 25:25.225:25.223:31.323.7
32Paizlie RobertsonManchester · FRFinish 25:39.825:39.823:44.819.2
33Brooklyn NemecLouisa County · SOFinish 25:42.525:42.523:47.318.4
34Fiona RameyHidden Valley · FRFinish 25:49.825:49.823:54.016.2
35Lauren MurrayHidden Valley · SRFinish 25:56.325:56.324:00.014.1
36Lydia NovickHidden Valley · FRFinish 26:03.626:03.624:06.811.9
37Bailey ThomasSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 26:05.326:05.324:08.411.4
38Grace KinzieHidden Valley · JRFinish 26:12.826:12.824:15.39.1
39Abigail ReutingerLouisa County · FRFinish 26:15.026:15.024:17.38.4
40Abigail AurandLouisa County · FRFinish 26:15.426:15.424:17.78.3
41Pikea Reynolds-SaintHidden Valley · SRFinish 26:21.426:21.424:23.36.4
42Maggie BryantHidden Valley · FRFinish 26:25.126:25.124:26.75.3
43Julianne GibbsJefferson Forest · SOFinish 26:25.326:25.324:26.95.2
44Chloe KeithJefferson Forest · SOFinish 26:40.826:40.824:41.20.4
45Joanna KilleenGlenvar · SRFinish 26:43.326:43.324:43.5—
46McKenzie DuncanJefferson Forest · SOFinish 26:48.926:48.924:48.7—
47Maylin HopkinsJefferson Christian Academy · FRFinish 27:00.927:00.924:59.8—
48Emma GrissoStaunton River · SOFinish 27:08.627:08.625:06.9—
49Simone SpasojevichMills Godwin · SOFinish 27:29.127:29.125:25.9—
50Annie GeorgeGlenvar · FRFinish 27:38.427:38.425:34.5—
Show all 65 results (15 more)Showing all 65 results · hide rows 51–65
Girls results, rows 51 to 65 of 65
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Valerie GermerothBrookville · SRFinish 27:50.527:50.525:45.7—
52Cameron SampsonManchester · FRFinish 27:59.427:59.425:53.9—
53Caroline CrookMills Godwin · FRFinish 28:04.728:04.725:58.9—
54Althea HuntE. C. Glass · SOFinish 28:07.428:07.426:01.4—
55Graceyn PeckSouthwest Virginia Academy · SOFinish 28:10.328:10.326:04.0—
56Chloe ClineMills Godwin · FRFinish 28:14.928:14.926:08.3—
57Julia-Rose SpearsSouthwest Virginia Academy · SOFinish 28:48.328:48.326:39.2—
58Aliyah AllenGlenvar · FRFinish 29:09.329:09.326:58.6—
59Anna WaterworthE. C. Glass · JRFinish 29:12.529:12.527:01.6—
60Leason FarrManchester · SOFinish 29:21.929:21.927:10.3—
61Sadie MaceBrookville · SRFinish 29:28.929:28.927:16.8—
62Mikaela WilliamsManchester · FRFinish 29:40.629:40.627:27.6—
63Anna JohnSouthwest Virginia Academy · SOFinish 29:50.129:50.127:36.4—
64Nalayna StanleyAmherst · SOFinish 30:31.130:31.128:14.3—
65Natelie AntinucciAmherst · JRFinish 30:31.230:31.228:14.4—

GIRLS · JV · 5,000 M

JV Girls 5k

D

38 of 39 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +85.2 s course and conditions +110.0 s in-season fitness −24.7 sCourse constant 543.26 (543)Race constant 540.91 (541)

Unavailable used anchors± 20.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Girls results, places shown 1 to 39 of 39 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Erika MilhornJefferson Forest · SRFinish 22:45.422:45.420:56.375.4
2Reagan BryantRadford · JRFinish 23:31.023:31.021:38.261.4
3Lily HyattRadford · FRFinish 24:13.124:13.122:16.948.5
4Hope WernerPacers Homeschool · SOFinish 25:09.325:09.323:08.731.3
5Addie TappRadford · SRFinish 25:22.925:22.923:21.227.1
6Samantha IrbyPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 26:14.526:14.524:08.611.3
7Kameron TejedaManchester · FRFinish 26:27.126:27.124:20.27.4
8Abigail CastleberryRadford · FRFinish 26:44.626:44.624:36.32.0
9Keri DraperPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 27:04.827:04.824:54.9—
10Anna LaneManchester · JRFinish 27:06.527:06.524:56.5—
11Anna BuskillRadford · SRFinish 27:07.927:07.924:57.8—
12Holland CunninghamOnward Christian Academy · FRFinish 27:15.327:15.325:04.6—
13Camille HidalgoRadford · FRFinish 27:23.327:23.325:11.9—
14Brittyn HavensHidden Valley · FRFinish 27:59.427:59.425:45.2—
15Addy WeaverHidden Valley · FRFinish 28:22.728:22.726:06.6—
16Isabella HidalgoLouisa County · FRFinish 28:39.628:39.626:22.1—
17Chloe CajigasLouisa County · SOFinish 28:40.028:40.026:22.5—
18Ella AmosPacers Homeschool · SOFinish 28:47.228:47.226:29.1—
19Abigail BirchPacers Homeschool · SOFinish 28:54.428:54.426:35.8—
20Mary ThompsonLouisa County · JRFinish 29:34.629:34.627:12.7—
21Rachel NicholasJefferson Forest · SOFinish 29:44.429:44.427:21.8—
22Madeline KinneyHidden Valley · FRFinish 29:44.929:44.927:22.2—
23Liza JohnsonJefferson Forest · SOFinish 29:57.329:57.327:33.6—
24Jasmine KasperJefferson Forest · SOFinish 29:57.529:57.527:33.8—
25Eliza KeetonManchester · SRFinish 30:22.430:22.427:56.7—
26Olivia CloseRadford · FRFinish 30:33.630:33.628:07.0—
27Lydia HarrisPacers Homeschool · SOFinish 30:52.030:52.028:24.0—
28McKenzie BarkerJefferson Forest · SOFinish 31:44.831:44.829:12.5—
29Gabriella WebbMills Godwin · 8Finish 31:53.531:53.529:20.5—
30Naomi FentahunJefferson Forest · SOFinish 31:54.331:54.329:21.3—
31Allyson ReutingerLouisa County · FRFinish 32:03.232:03.229:29.5—
32Lilly JettPacers Homeschool · FRFinish 32:08.832:08.829:34.6—
33Kate ChadwickHidden Valley · SOFinish 32:49.532:49.530:12.1—
34Aisha ElakkadJefferson Forest · SOFinish 33:37.733:37.730:56.4—
35Shelby GoudesHidden Valley · FRFinish 34:03.734:03.731:20.3—
36Josephina PrestonJefferson Forest · SOFinish 34:30.434:30.431:44.9—
37Isabella DavisPacers Homeschool · SRFinish 35:10.935:10.932:22.2—
38Cora WhiddenJefferson Forest · SOFinish 36:15.436:15.433:21.5—
39Krista MorrisJefferson Forest · JRFinish 45:07.645:07.6UnavailableUnavailable

1 row: time outside the rated range.

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Not rated. The finish time is outside the range we rate (12:00–45:00 for a 5K), so it has no adjustment or rating.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.