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Oct 14, 2023 · Waynesboro, VA

grace christian staunton invitational 2023

Coyner Springs Park · Historical 2023 results

Other years: 2022

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 154.4), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

1 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run

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C

44 of 44 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +4.7 s course and conditions +26.1 s in-season fitness −21.4 sCourse constant 505.42 (505)Race constant 503.52 (504)

37 used anchors± 8.2 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 37 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 37, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Violet Wall · Jefferson Christian Academy: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Erin Loker · Eastern Mennonite School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Katelyn Martin · Redeemer Classical School: VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21)
  4. 4 Georgia Babish · Grace Christian School (S): VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Emma Shirey · Jefferson Christian Academy: Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  6. 6 Kate Flippin · Virginia Episcopal School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Jessica Dryer · Grace Christian School (S): VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21) · and 3 more
  8. 8 Emerson Moore · Virginia Episcopal School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Maddie Harper · Grace Christian School (S): VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Rose Waldron · Seton School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VCAC Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Frances Fenton · Virginia Episcopal School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  12. 12 Ava Clark · Virginia Episcopal School: Woodberry Forest 47th Annual XC Invitational (Sep 22)
  13. 13 Kaitlyn Harper · Grace Christian School (S): VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Beth Vogan · Grace Christian School (S): VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 1 more
  15. 15 Lily Griffin · Seton School: VCAC Championship (Nov 1) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 24) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Kylee Roes · Grace Christian School (S): VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Ila Hackman · Eastern Mennonite School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3)
  18. 18 Ana Brown · Virginia Episcopal School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Riley Birt · Blue Ridge Christian School: VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21) · EMU Mennonite Heritage Cross Country Invitational (Sep 1) · and 1 more
  20. 20 Penny Kramer · Seton School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VCAC Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  21. 21 Maylin Hopkins · Jefferson Christian Academy: Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · Randy Smith Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  22. 22 Addy Anderson · The Covenant School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9)
  23. 23 Sadie Groff · Eastern Mennonite School: BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 23) · and 1 more
  24. 26 Mary Catherine Munsell · Seton School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VCAC Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  25. 29 Valentina Patron · Virginia Episcopal School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3)
  26. 30 Maddie Kratz · Eastern Mennonite School: BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 23) · and 1 more
  27. 31 Kate Piper · Eastern Mennonite School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  28. 32 Cora Kramer · Seton School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VCAC Championship (Nov 1)
  29. 33 Violet Hurst · Blue Ridge Christian School: VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21) · 10th Annual Central High School Cross Country Invitational (Aug 26)
  30. 35 Faith Bagley · Grace Christian School (S): VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21) · and 2 more
  31. 37 Alexa Amato · Eastern Mennonite School: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 23)
  32. 38 Colette Kramer · Seton School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VCAC Championship (Nov 1)
  33. 39 Chloe Hokesma · Blue Ridge Christian School: VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21) · 10th Annual Central High School Cross Country Invitational (Aug 26)
  34. 40 Kaitlyn Landis · Blue Ridge Christian School: 10th Annual Central High School Cross Country Invitational (Aug 26)
  35. 41 Lanier Fussell · Virginia Episcopal School: EMU Mennonite Heritage Cross Country Invitational (Sep 1)
  36. 42 Noemi Rodriguez · Seton School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · VCAC Championship (Nov 1)
  37. 44 Deanna Soika · Regents School of Charlottesville: VACA State XC Meet (Oct 21)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 44 of 44 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Violet WallJefferson Christian Academy · JRFinish 19:57.819:57.819:36.6102.0
2Erin LokerEastern Mennonite School · SRFinish 20:49.820:49.820:27.784.9
3Katelyn MartinRedeemer Classical School · SRFinish 21:21.621:21.620:58.974.5
4Georgia BabishGrace Christian School (S) · SOFinish 21:25.421:25.421:02.773.3
5Emma ShireyJefferson Christian Academy · SOFinish 21:28.421:28.421:05.672.3
6Kate FlippinVirginia Episcopal School · SOFinish 21:34.321:34.321:11.470.4
7Jessica DryerGrace Christian School (S) · SRFinish 21:35.921:35.921:13.069.8
8Emerson MooreVirginia Episcopal School · FRFinish 22:02.622:02.621:39.261.1
9Maddie HarperGrace Christian School (S) · SRFinish 23:01.523:01.522:37.041.8
10Rose WaldronSeton School · JRFinish 23:23.623:23.622:58.834.6
11Frances FentonVirginia Episcopal School · JRFinish 23:44.823:44.823:19.627.6
12Ava ClarkVirginia Episcopal School · JRFinish 23:56.423:56.423:31.023.8
13Kaitlyn HarperGrace Christian School (S) · JRFinish 23:58.523:58.523:33.123.1
14Beth VoganGrace Christian School (S) · FRFinish 24:04.324:04.323:38.821.2
15Lily GriffinSeton School · SRFinish 24:55.524:55.524:29.14.5
16Kylee RoesGrace Christian School (S) · FRFinish 25:10.225:10.224:43.5—
17Ila HackmanEastern Mennonite School · 8Finish 25:12.425:12.424:45.7—
18Ana BrownVirginia Episcopal School · JRFinish 25:24.225:24.224:57.2—
19Riley BirtBlue Ridge Christian School · FRFinish 25:29.625:29.625:02.5—
20Penny KramerSeton School · FRFinish 25:42.525:42.525:15.2—
21Maylin HopkinsJefferson Christian Academy · FRFinish 26:08.326:08.325:40.5—
22Addy AndersonThe Covenant School · FRFinish 26:22.826:22.825:54.8—
23Sadie GroffEastern Mennonite School · SRFinish 26:31.426:31.426:03.3—
24Maria GranThe Covenant School · FRFinish 26:52.626:52.626:24.0—
25Mae DuenkeThe Covenant School · FRFinish 26:56.826:56.826:28.2—
26Mary Catherine MunsellSeton School · SOFinish 27:29.227:29.227:00.0—
27Genevieve LiebengoodThe Covenant School · FRFinish 27:35.227:35.227:05.9—
28Lucy GingerelliStuart Hall School · FRFinish 27:38.527:38.527:09.2—
29Valentina PatronVirginia Episcopal School · SOFinish 27:53.927:53.927:24.3—
30Maddie KratzEastern Mennonite School · JRFinish 27:55.127:55.127:25.5—
31Kate PiperEastern Mennonite School · JRFinish 28:05.828:05.827:36.0—
32Cora KramerSeton School · FRFinish 28:21.228:21.227:51.1—
33Violet HurstBlue Ridge Christian School · SOFinish 29:26.129:26.128:54.8—
34Caroline CurtisThe Covenant School · FRFinish 29:26.329:26.328:55.1—
35Faith BagleyGrace Christian School (S) · FRFinish 29:31.129:31.128:59.7—
36Lucy FoshayThe Covenant School · FRFinish 30:45.330:45.330:12.7—
37Alexa AmatoEastern Mennonite School · FRFinish 31:20.631:20.630:47.3—
38Colette KramerSeton School · SOFinish 31:26.831:26.830:53.4—
39Chloe HokesmaBlue Ridge Christian School · JRFinish 31:44.131:44.131:10.4—
40Kaitlyn LandisBlue Ridge Christian School · SOFinish 32:48.132:48.132:13.3—
41Lanier FussellVirginia Episcopal School · SOFinish 33:05.033:05.032:29.9—
42Noemi RodriguezSeton School · FRFinish 33:38.433:38.433:02.6—
43Charlotte LeStuart Hall School · JRFinish 34:00.634:00.633:24.5—
44Deanna SoikaRegents School of Charlottesville · FRFinish 34:37.734:37.734:01.0—

grace christian staunton invitational 2023, Oct 14, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.