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Oct 21, 2023 · Rocky Mount, VA

VACA State XC Meet

Christian Heritage XC Course · Historical 2023 results

Other years: 2025

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

VACA State XC Meet - 10/21/2023 Christian Heritage XC Course, Rocky Mount, VA High School Girls 5000 Meter Run

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D

26 of 26 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +61.4 s course and conditions +85.7 s in-season fitness −24.3 sCourse constant 534.11 (534)Race constant 531.66 (532)

18 used anchors± 13.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 18 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 18, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Georgia Babish · Grace Christian School: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Katelyn Martin · Redeemer Classical School: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14)
  3. 3 Jessica Dryer · Grace Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Maddie Harper · Grace Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  5. 5 Kaitlyn Harper · Grace Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Kylee Roes · Grace Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Emma McKnight · Redeemer Classical School: EMU Mennonite Heritage Cross Country Invitational (Sep 1)
  8. 8 Johana Thomson · Faith Christian: CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Riley Birt · Blue Ridge Christian School: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · EMU Mennonite Heritage Cross Country Invitational (Sep 1) · and 1 more
  10. 12 Rachelle Brown · Faith Christian: CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  11. 14 Violet Hurst · Blue Ridge Christian School: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · 10th Annual Central High School Cross Country Invitational (Aug 26)
  12. 16 Hailey Nichols · Faith Christian School: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · 10th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  13. 18 Faith Bagley · Grace Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  14. 20 Lydia Golin · Blue Ridge Christian School: 10th Annual Central High School Cross Country Invitational (Aug 26)
  15. 23 Deanna Soika · Regents School of Charlottesville: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14)
  16. 24 Chloe Hokesma · Blue Ridge Christian School: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · 10th Annual Central High School Cross Country Invitational (Aug 26)
  17. 25 Shannon Causey · Roanoke Valley Christian: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9)
  18. 26 Gabby Lee · Roanoke Valley Christian: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 26 of 26 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Georgia BabishGrace Christian School · SOFinish 22:22.322:22.320:58.474.7
2Katelyn MartinRedeemer Classical School · SRFinish 22:33.122:33.121:08.471.3
3Jessica DryerGrace Christian School · SRFinish 23:21.923:21.921:54.256.1
4Maddie HarperGrace Christian School · SRFinish 25:27.425:27.423:51.916.9
5Kaitlyn HarperGrace Christian School · JRFinish 26:15.026:15.024:36.52.0
6Kylee RoesGrace Christian School · FRFinish 26:18.326:18.324:39.51.0
7Emma McKnightRedeemer Classical School · FRFinish 26:49.526:49.525:08.8—
8Johana ThomsonFaith Christian · FRFinish 26:51.326:51.325:10.5—
9Riley BirtBlue Ridge Christian School · FRFinish 26:53.026:53.025:12.1—
10Constance FlynnRegents School of Charlottesville · FRFinish 27:42.727:42.725:58.7—
11Danielle WatsonTimberlake Christian School · SOFinish 28:29.528:29.526:42.5—
12Rachelle BrownFaith Christian · SRFinish 28:32.528:32.526:45.3—
13Reese HullRegents School of Charlottesville · 8Finish 29:28.829:28.827:38.1—
14Violet HurstBlue Ridge Christian School · SOFinish 30:27.530:27.528:33.2—
15Felicity WoffordWestover Christian Academy · SOFinish 31:01.731:01.729:05.2—
16Hailey NicholsFaith Christian School · JRFinish 31:33.131:33.129:34.7—
17Jenna ClementTimberlake Christian School · FRFinish 31:42.231:42.229:43.2—
18Faith BagleyGrace Christian School · FRFinish 32:10.332:10.330:09.5—
19Ashtyn BruceTimberlake Christian School · SOFinish 33:36.433:36.431:30.3—
20Lydia GolinBlue Ridge Christian School · SOFinish 34:05.834:05.831:57.9—
21Esther KeppelRegents School of Charlottesville · FRFinish 34:14.534:14.532:06.0—
22Kira BlackTimberlake Christian School · SOFinish 34:18.634:18.632:09.8—
23Deanna SoikaRegents School of Charlottesville · FRFinish 34:38.534:38.532:28.5—
24Chloe HokesmaBlue Ridge Christian School · JRFinish 34:59.434:59.432:48.1—
25Shannon CauseyRoanoke Valley Christian · FRFinish 37:05.937:05.934:46.6—
26Gabby LeeRoanoke Valley Christian · SRFinish 37:47.237:47.235:25.4—

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

High School Boys 5000 Meter Run

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B

54 of 54 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +77.0 s course and conditions +99.9 s in-season fitness −22.9 sCourse constant 526.99 (527)Race constant 524.91 (525)

38 used anchors± 5.6 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.934Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 38 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 38, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Eric Duncan · Roanoke Valley Christian: Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Spencer Thacker · Roanoke Valley Christian: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Kiran Yoder · Faith Christian: CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Jed Derrick · Grace Christian School: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Chase Arrington · Christian Heritage Academy: 39th Annual Greensboro XC Invitational (Sep 30) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Graham Whitaker · Faith Christian: CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  7. 7 Caleb Rose · Faith Christian School: CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Luke Huijik · Regents School of Charlottesville: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14)
  9. 9 Seth Yoder · Faith Christian: CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Canon Reid · Grace Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Kaiden Young · Christian Heritage Academy: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · 10th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  12. 12 Landon Newton · Faith Christian: CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · 10th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  13. 13 Alex Caywood · Faith Christian: CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  14. 14 Joey Neudorf · Grace Christian School: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  15. 15 Caleb Cashion · Grace Christian School: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Isaac Ranck · Grace Christian School: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  17. 18 Lewis Eaton · Roanoke Valley Christian: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9)
  18. 20 Josiah Flynn · Regents School of Charlottesville: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14)
  19. 21 Cian Ivers · Grace Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  20. 23 Jacob Gilley · Christian Heritage Academy: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · 10th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  21. 24 Isaiah Chenier · Christian Heritage Academy: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · 10th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  22. 25 Kaleb Ferguson · Roanoke Valley Christian: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14)
  23. 26 Reuben Malcolm · Grace Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  24. 27 Thomas Wang · Ridgeview Christian: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Augusta Invitational Cross Country Meet (Sep 16)
  25. 28 Patrick Martin · Blue Ridge Christian School: EMU Mennonite Heritage Cross Country Invitational (Sep 1) · 10th Annual Central High School Cross Country Invitational (Aug 26)
  26. 29 Tyler Ferguson · Roanoke Valley Christian: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9)
  27. 31 Truman Walker · Ridgeview Christian: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14)
  28. 32 Rhodes Katz · Regents School of Charlottesville: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14)
  29. 33 Blake Waldron · Appalachian Christian School: Augusta Invitational Cross Country Meet (Sep 16)
  30. 35 Wyatt Yanok · Christian Heritage Academy: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · 10th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  31. 40 Noah Breeden · Ridgeview Christian: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14)
  32. 42 Camden Walker · Ridgeview Christian: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Augusta Invitational Cross Country Meet (Sep 16)
  33. 44 Lincoln Brown · Faith Christian: CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 16) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  34. 45 Daniel Barry · Ridgeview Christian: Augusta Invitational Cross Country Meet (Sep 16)
  35. 46 Zach Deanhofer · Christian Heritage Academy: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9)
  36. 48 James Rebolledo · Regents School of Charlottesville: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14)
  37. 50 Bennett Walker · Ridgeview Christian: Grace Christian Staunton Invitational (Oct 14) · Augusta Invitational Cross Country Meet (Sep 16)
  38. 54 Luke Mason · Christian Heritage Academy: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 50 of 54 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Eric DuncanRoanoke Valley Christian · SOFinish 18:01.118:01.116:42.0155.9
2Spencer ThackerRoanoke Valley Christian · JRFinish 18:09.618:09.616:49.8153.3
3Kiran YoderFaith Christian · JRFinish 19:05.419:05.417:41.6136.1
4Jed DerrickGrace Christian School · SOFinish 19:07.319:07.317:43.3135.5
5Chase ArringtonChristian Heritage Academy · SOFinish 19:38.419:38.418:12.2125.9
6Graham WhitakerFaith Christian · JRFinish 20:10.420:10.418:41.8116.0
7Caleb RoseFaith Christian School · FRFinish 20:11.420:11.418:42.8115.7
8Luke HuijikRegents School of Charlottesville · SOFinish 20:27.620:27.618:57.7110.7
9Seth YoderFaith Christian · FRFinish 20:29.220:29.218:59.2110.2
10Canon ReidGrace Christian School · SOFinish 20:53.120:53.119:21.4102.8
11Kaiden YoungChristian Heritage Academy · SOFinish 21:28.621:28.619:54.391.8
12Landon NewtonFaith Christian · SRFinish 21:37.121:37.120:02.289.2
13Alex CaywoodFaith Christian · SRFinish 21:41.021:41.020:05.888.0
14Joey NeudorfGrace Christian School · SRFinish 21:47.021:47.020:11.386.2
15Caleb CashionGrace Christian School · JRFinish 21:51.621:51.620:15.684.7
16Isaac RanckGrace Christian School · FRFinish 21:56.421:56.420:20.183.2
17Logan SmithWestover Christian Academy · FRFinish 22:00.022:00.020:23.482.1
18Lewis EatonRoanoke Valley Christian · JRFinish 22:14.622:14.620:36.977.6
19Trey LeopoldWestover Christian Academy · SRFinish 22:22.922:22.920:44.675.1
20Josiah FlynnRegents School of Charlottesville · SOFinish 22:31.122:31.120:52.272.5
21Cian IversGrace Christian School · FRFinish 22:40.122:40.121:00.669.7
22Charles MartinBlue Ridge Christian School · SOFinish 22:53.022:53.021:12.565.8
23Jacob GilleyChristian Heritage Academy · FRFinish 22:54.122:54.121:13.565.4
24Isaiah ChenierChristian Heritage Academy · SOFinish 23:22.323:22.321:39.756.7
25Kaleb FergusonRoanoke Valley Christian · 8Finish 23:23.123:23.121:40.456.5
26Reuben MalcolmGrace Christian School · FRFinish 23:44.523:44.522:00.249.9
27Thomas WangRidgeview Christian · SOFinish 23:46.523:46.522:02.149.2
28Patrick MartinBlue Ridge Christian School · JRFinish 24:01.424:01.422:15.944.6
29Tyler FergusonRoanoke Valley Christian · JRFinish 24:34.524:34.522:46.634.4
30Blake JohnsonWestover Christian Academy · SRFinish 24:35.424:35.422:47.434.1
31Truman WalkerRidgeview Christian · 8Finish 24:36.424:36.422:48.333.8
32Rhodes KatzRegents School of Charlottesville · SOFinish 24:50.724:50.723:01.629.4
33Blake WaldronAppalachian Christian School · SOFinish 25:03.425:03.423:13.425.5
34Christopher BowmanWestover Christian Academy · JRFinish 25:03.825:03.823:13.725.4
35Wyatt YanokChristian Heritage Academy · SOFinish 25:37.425:37.423:44.915.0
36Keeley BettendorfWestover Christian Academy · SRFinish 25:49.225:49.223:55.811.3
37David KeppelRegents School of Charlottesville · SRFinish 25:54.525:54.524:00.79.7
38Colt ChromyWestover Christian Academy · FRFinish 26:22.126:22.124:26.41.1
39Cheol ParksWestover Christian Academy · SRFinish 26:54.926:54.924:56.7—
40Noah BreedenRidgeview Christian · FRFinish 26:58.526:58.525:00.0—
41Elijah Anokye-GyambrahRegents School of Charlottesville · JRFinish 28:41.228:41.226:35.2—
42Camden WalkerRidgeview Christian · SRFinish 28:44.428:44.426:38.2—
43Joseph TooleyWestover Christian Academy · 8Finish 29:31.129:31.127:21.5—
44Lincoln BrownFaith Christian · FRFinish 29:32.229:32.227:22.5—
45Daniel BarryRidgeview Christian · SOFinish 29:44.129:44.127:33.5—
46Zach DeanhoferChristian Heritage Academy · FRFinish 30:16.330:16.328:03.3—
47Ade AdodejiTimberlake Christian School · SOFinish 31:56.331:56.329:36.1—
48James RebolledoRegents School of Charlottesville · SOFinish 32:32.932:32.930:09.9—
49Michael SlebodaTimberlake Christian School · JRFinish 34:14.534:14.531:44.2—
50Bennett WalkerRidgeview Christian · SOFinish 34:55.134:55.132:21.7—
Show all 54 results (4 more)Showing all 54 results · hide rows 51–54
Boys results, rows 51 to 54 of 54
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Devin MichelWestover Christian Academy · SOFinish 34:57.734:57.732:24.2—
52Caleb SaundersWestover Christian Academy · SOFinish 37:22.937:22.934:38.8—
53Thien NguyenWestover Christian Academy · SRFinish 41:28.341:28.338:26.2—
54Luke MasonChristian Heritage Academy · SOFinish 42:23.642:23.639:17.5—

VACA State XC Meet, Oct 21, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.