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Oct 24, 2023 · Troutville, VA

Blue Ridge District Championship 2023

Greenfield Recreation Park 5K Course · Historical 2023 results

Other years: 2024 · 2022

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Blue Ridge District Championship 2023 - 10/24/2023 Greenfield Recreation Park 5K Course, Daleville, VA Varsity Boys 5000 Meter Run

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B

43 of 43 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +25.9 s course and conditions +47.8 s in-season fitness −22.0 sCourse constant 506.53 (507)Race constant 504.58 (505)

43 used anchors± 4.4 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.934Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 43 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 43, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Jack Weddle · Staunton River: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · and 7 more
  2. 2 Jonah Bowman · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Donald Mullins · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Nicholas Guilliams · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  5. 5 Reagan Lilley · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 5 more
  6. 6 Jacob Montgomery · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Tristan Marshall · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  8. 8 Luke Montgomery · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Colter Meritt · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  10. 10 Rye Jackson · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Preston Vaughn · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Reid Hanson · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  13. 13 Aman Bennet · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 6 more
  14. 14 Mason Crandall · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  15. 15 John Moughrabi · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Bryan Garcia-Gonzalez · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Bryce Woodford · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 4 more
  18. 18 Joel Butler · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  19. 19 Blake Peery · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 5 more
  20. 20 Colton Sotherden · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  21. 21 Aaron Hancock · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 4 more
  22. 22 Owen Wagoner · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 5 more
  23. 23 Tony Lam · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 6 more
  24. 24 Levi Nichols · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 5 more
  25. 25 Riley Slusher · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  26. 26 Hunter Crandall · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  27. 27 Jacob Malue · Lord Botetourt: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 23) · and 2 more
  28. 28 Drew Bartley · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  29. 29 Liam St. Clair · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  30. 30 Garrett Sutton · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 5 more
  31. 31 Christian Rakes · Lord Botetourt: Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  32. 32 Montel Edwards · William Fleming: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 2 more
  33. 33 Graham Dietrich · Lord Botetourt: Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  34. 34 Yan Pablo Cano Morales · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 1 more
  35. 35 Carter Haas · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · and 5 more
  36. 36 Cole Johnston · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 3 more
  37. 37 Alan Lam · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1)
  38. 38 Jason Gillespie · Staunton River: Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 21) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  39. 39 Tyrece Leftwich · William Fleming: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 5 more
  40. 40 Vy Chau · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 2 more
  41. 41 Brenden Hartung · Northside: Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 4 more
  42. 42 Landon Hartung · Northside: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · Cougar Clash Invitational (Sep 30) · and 4 more
  43. 43 Fernando Martinez Cortes · William Fleming: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 23) · and 3 more
Boys results, places shown 1 to 43 of 43 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Jack WeddleStaunton River · SRFinish 17:08.417:08.416:32.9159.0
2Jonah BowmanFranklin County · SOFinish 17:59.217:59.217:22.0142.6
3Donald MullinsWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 18:30.618:30.617:52.3132.5
4Nicholas GuilliamsFranklin County · JRFinish 18:45.318:45.318:06.4127.8
5Reagan LilleyWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 18:51.018:51.018:11.9126.0
6Jacob MontgomeryFranklin County · JRFinish 19:08.419:08.418:28.8120.3
7Tristan MarshallLord Botetourt · SRFinish 19:08.819:08.818:29.1120.2
8Luke MontgomeryFranklin County · SRFinish 19:21.719:21.718:41.6116.1
9Colter MerittNorthside · JRFinish 19:41.719:41.719:00.8109.7
10Rye JacksonLord Botetourt · SRFinish 19:48.719:48.719:07.6107.4
11Preston VaughnLord Botetourt · FRFinish 19:54.419:54.419:13.1105.6
12Reid HansonWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 19:56.019:56.019:14.7105.0
13Aman BennetNorthside · JRFinish 19:59.719:59.719:18.3103.8
14Mason CrandallFranklin County · FRFinish 20:01.020:01.019:19.5103.4
15John MoughrabiLord Botetourt · FRFinish 20:18.720:18.719:36.697.7
16Bryan Garcia-GonzalezFranklin County · SOFinish 20:29.020:29.019:46.694.4
17Bryce WoodfordStaunton River · FRFinish 20:34.220:34.219:51.592.8
18Joel ButlerLord Botetourt · FRFinish 20:35.920:35.919:53.292.2
19Blake PeeryLord Botetourt · SOFinish 20:45.420:45.420:02.389.2
20Colton SotherdenWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 20:52.620:52.620:09.486.8
21Aaron HancockStaunton River · JRFinish 20:58.220:58.220:14.885.0
22Owen WagonerNorthside · SOFinish 21:12.021:12.020:28.080.6
23Tony LamNorthside · JRFinish 21:15.521:15.520:31.479.5
24Levi NicholsStaunton River · JRFinish 21:15.621:15.620:31.579.4
25Riley SlusherWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 21:26.721:26.720:42.375.8
26Hunter CrandallFranklin County · JRFinish 21:26.921:26.920:42.575.8
27Jacob MalueLord Botetourt · JRFinish 21:39.021:39.020:54.171.9
28Drew BartleyWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 21:39.321:39.320:54.471.8
29Liam St. ClairStaunton River · JRFinish 21:41.221:41.220:56.371.2
30Garrett SuttonLord Botetourt · JRFinish 21:41.921:41.920:56.971.0
31Christian RakesLord Botetourt · SOFinish 21:59.421:59.421:13.865.3
32Montel EdwardsWilliam Fleming · SRFinish 22:00.522:00.521:14.965.0
33Graham DietrichLord Botetourt · SOFinish 22:07.622:07.621:21.762.7
34Yan Pablo Cano MoralesNorthside · JRFinish 22:27.222:27.221:40.656.4
35Carter HaasStaunton River · SOFinish 22:48.022:48.022:00.749.7
36Cole JohnstonWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 22:48.222:48.222:01.049.6
37Alan LamNorthside · SOFinish 23:04.723:04.722:16.944.3
38Jason GillespieStaunton River · SOFinish 23:23.723:23.722:35.238.2
39Tyrece LeftwichWilliam Fleming · SRFinish 24:26.424:26.423:35.818.0
40Vy ChauNorthside · SRFinish 25:59.425:59.425:05.6—
41Brenden HartungNorthside · JRFinish 26:47.926:47.925:52.3—
42Landon HartungNorthside · SOFinish 26:48.426:48.425:52.8—
43Fernando Martinez CortesWilliam Fleming · JRFinish 27:19.627:19.626:23.0—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run

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B

23 of 23 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +24.6 s course and conditions +48.1 s in-season fitness −23.6 sCourse constant 513.74 (514)Race constant 511.59 (512)

22 used anchors± 4.4 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 22 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 22, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Caitlyn Roach · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Julianne Bowman · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Isabelah Cauley · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Claire Glover · William Byrd: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Whitney Holland · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Amelia Dietrich · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  7. 7 Heidi Wienke · William Byrd: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · and 6 more
  8. 8 Erna Dietrich · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Lucy Whitenack · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Addison Purser · Lord Botetourt: Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 23) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Kadence Smith · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Jaidyn Vukelich · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Ava Ashley · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 2 more
  14. 14 Ella Johnston · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 3 more
  15. 15 Alexandra Bonilla · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  16. 16 Emmi Williamson · Franklin County: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Alexa Carillo · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  18. 18 Elizabeth Dixon · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 5 more
  19. 19 Digna Dubon Rapalo · William Fleming: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  20. 20 Ember Wiley · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  21. 21 Elizabeth Meadows · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · and 4 more
  22. 23 Jillian Harris · Lord Botetourt: Metro XC Championships (Oct 18) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 23 of 23 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Caitlyn RoachFranklin County · FRFinish 20:55.020:55.020:11.990.2
2Julianne BowmanFranklin County · SRFinish 21:50.321:50.321:05.372.4
3Isabelah CauleyFranklin County · SRFinish 22:09.522:09.521:23.866.2
4Claire GloverWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 22:10.922:10.921:25.265.8
5Whitney HollandFranklin County · SRFinish 22:39.722:39.721:52.956.5
6Amelia DietrichLord Botetourt · SRFinish 22:48.222:48.222:01.253.7
7Heidi WienkeWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 22:57.722:57.722:10.350.7
8Erna DietrichLord Botetourt · SRFinish 23:12.123:12.122:24.246.1
9Lucy WhitenackWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 23:29.223:29.222:40.840.6
10Addison PurserLord Botetourt · FRFinish 23:41.523:41.522:52.736.6
11Kadence SmithFranklin County · FRFinish 24:32.824:32.823:42.220.1
12Jaidyn VukelichFranklin County · JRFinish 25:22.425:22.424:30.14.1
13Ava AshleyNorthside · JRFinish 25:45.125:45.124:52.0—
14Ella JohnstonLord Botetourt · SRFinish 25:51.825:51.824:58.5—
15Alexandra BonillaWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 26:02.226:02.225:08.5—
16Emmi WilliamsonFranklin County · FRFinish 26:23.026:23.025:28.6—
17Alexa CarilloLord Botetourt · SRFinish 26:28.726:28.725:34.2—
18Elizabeth DixonWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 27:33.627:33.626:36.8—
19Digna Dubon RapaloWilliam Fleming · JRFinish 27:46.527:46.526:49.2—
20Ember WileyLord Botetourt · FRFinish 27:56.627:56.626:59.0—
21Elizabeth MeadowsLord Botetourt · JRFinish 28:46.828:46.827:47.5—
22Alina PoudelLord Botetourt · SOFinish 28:57.028:57.027:57.3—
23Jillian HarrisLord Botetourt · JRFinish 30:11.130:11.129:08.9—

Blue Ridge District Championship 2023, Oct 24, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.