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Oct 26, 2022 · Troutville, VA

Blue Ridge District Championship 2022

Greenfield Recreation Park 5K Course · Historical 2022 results

Other years: 2024 · 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Blue Ridge District Championship 2022 - 10/26/2022 Greenfield Recreation Park 5K Course, Daleville, VA Boys 5000 Meter Run

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C

37 of 37 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +48.4 s course and conditions +72.4 s in-season fitness −24.0 sCourse constant 515.90 (516)Race constant 511.99 (512)

36 used anchors± 10.5 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.973Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 36 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 36, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Sam Weddle · Staunton River: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  2. 2 Jack Weddle · Staunton River: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  3. 3 Jacob Montgomery · Franklin County: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Class 6A Region XC Championship Hosted by Grassfield (Nov 5) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Cole Stelter · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  5. 5 Tristan Marshall · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Colter Meritt · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Carter Hudson · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  8. 8 Sebastian Ellis · Franklin County: VHSL Class 6A Region XC Championship Hosted by Grassfield (Nov 5) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  9. 9 DeShawn Austin · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Shaun Gower · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Owen Wagoner · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  12. 12 Andrew Riddle · Franklin County: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Class 6A Region XC Championship Hosted by Grassfield (Nov 5) · and 4 more
  13. 13 Stephen Underwood · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  14. 14 Alfred Finney · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 8)
  15. 15 John Grider · Franklin County: VHSL Class 6A Region XC Championship Hosted by Grassfield (Nov 5) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Landon Hayes · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  17. 17 Pierce Rakes · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  18. 18 Jonah Clark · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  19. 19 Roger Markham · William Fleming: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  20. 20 Jacob Malue · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  21. 21 Luke Grisso · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 8) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Levi Nichols · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Aman Bennet · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  24. 24 Vy Chau · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  25. 25 Brayden McCulloch · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  26. 27 Gage Hornback · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  27. 28 Gary English · Franklin County: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19)
  28. 29 Ethan Baltzelle · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 8) · and 3 more
  29. 30 Dakota Bell · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 6 more
  30. 31 Will Walsh · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 8) · and 3 more
  31. 32 Drew Bartley · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 6 more
  32. 33 Ben King · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  33. 34 Brenden Hartung · Northside: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  34. 35 Andrew Martin · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 3 more
  35. 36 Reagan Lilley · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  36. 37 Landon Hartung · Northside: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
Boys results, places shown 1 to 37 of 37 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Sam WeddleStaunton River · SRFinish 18:13.318:13.317:16.5144.5
2Jack WeddleStaunton River · JRFinish 18:33.518:33.517:35.6138.1
3Jacob MontgomeryFranklin County · SOFinish 18:52.118:52.117:53.2132.2
4Cole StelterLord Botetourt · SRFinish 18:56.918:56.917:57.8130.7
5Tristan MarshallLord Botetourt · SOFinish 18:57.118:57.117:58.0130.6
6Colter MerittNorthside · SOFinish 19:19.119:19.118:18.8123.7
7Carter HudsonLord Botetourt · SRFinish 19:29.619:29.618:28.9120.4
8Sebastian EllisFranklin County · SRFinish 19:33.619:33.618:32.6119.1
9DeShawn AustinWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 19:35.819:35.818:34.7118.4
10Shaun GowerWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 19:38.919:38.918:37.6117.4
11Owen WagonerNorthside · FRFinish 19:39.619:39.618:38.3117.2
12Andrew RiddleFranklin County · SRFinish 19:46.119:46.118:44.5115.1
13Stephen UnderwoodWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 19:47.619:47.618:45.9114.7
14Alfred FinneyStaunton River · JRFinish 19:59.719:59.718:57.4110.8
15John GriderFranklin County · JRFinish 20:01.320:01.318:58.9110.3
16Landon HayesLord Botetourt · FRFinish 20:28.220:28.219:24.3101.9
17Pierce RakesNorthside · SOFinish 20:44.320:44.319:39.696.8
18Jonah ClarkLord Botetourt · SRFinish 20:44.320:44.319:39.696.8
19Roger MarkhamWilliam Fleming · SRFinish 21:10.821:10.820:04.888.4
20Jacob MalueLord Botetourt · SOFinish 21:16.321:16.320:10.086.6
21Luke GrissoStaunton River · JRFinish 21:36.121:36.120:28.880.4
22Levi NicholsStaunton River · SOFinish 21:39.621:39.620:32.179.3
23Aman BennetNorthside · SOFinish 21:42.021:42.020:34.378.5
24Vy ChauNorthside · JRFinish 21:58.421:58.420:49.973.3
25Brayden McCullochWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 22:00.722:00.720:52.172.6
26Jonas HollandFranklin County · FRFinish 22:27.122:27.121:17.164.3
27Gage HornbackLord Botetourt · JRFinish 22:46.622:46.621:35.658.1
28Gary EnglishFranklin County · FRFinish 22:46.922:46.921:35.858.0
29Ethan BaltzelleStaunton River · SRFinish 22:53.822:53.821:42.455.9
30Dakota BellWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 23:23.823:23.822:10.946.4
31Will WalshNorthside · SRFinish 23:28.523:28.522:15.344.9
32Drew BartleyWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 23:51.823:51.822:37.437.5
33Ben KingNorthside · SOFinish 24:09.024:09.022:53.732.1
34Brenden HartungNorthside · SOFinish 25:26.425:26.424:07.07.6
35Andrew MartinStaunton River · SOFinish 25:32.325:32.324:12.65.8
36Reagan LilleyWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 25:47.725:47.724:27.30.9
37Landon HartungNorthside · FRFinish 26:18.926:18.924:56.8—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls 5000 Meter Run

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C

28 of 28 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +41.7 s course and conditions +66.4 s in-season fitness −24.7 sCourse constant 521.11 (521)Race constant 517.99 (518)

27 used anchors± 8.9 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 27 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 27, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Olivia Hurd · William Byrd: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 7 more
  2. 2 Erna Dietrich · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Julianne Bowman · Franklin County: VHSL Class 6A Region XC Championship Hosted by Grassfield (Nov 5) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Megan Hawley · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Runnin' with the Wolves (Oct 8) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Hatlyn Haggerty · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Alexa Carillo · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Claire Glover · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  8. 8 Riley Roth · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  9. 9 Courtney Ngo · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  10. 10 Lauren Stenzel · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 3 more
  11. 11 Alexandra Bonilla · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  12. 12 Elizabeth Meadows · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Falan Peters · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  14. 14 Lucy Whitenack · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  15. 15 Anahi Muniz-Hernandez · William Fleming: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  16. 16 Riley Waldron · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Samantha Simms · Franklin County: VHSL Class 6A Region XC Championship Hosted by Grassfield (Nov 5) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  18. 18 Marissa Martin · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  19. 19 Natalie Davis · Franklin County: VHSL Class 6A Region XC Championship Hosted by Grassfield (Nov 5) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  20. 20 Jaidyn Vukelich · Franklin County: VHSL Class 6A Region XC Championship Hosted by Grassfield (Nov 5) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  21. 21 Karis Hambrick · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  22. 22 Grace Campbell · Franklin County: VHSL Class 6A Region XC Championship Hosted by Grassfield (Nov 5) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  23. 23 Sydnee Reed · William Fleming: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  24. 24 Jillian Harris · Lord Botetourt: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  25. 26 Elizabeth Dixon · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  26. 27 Tanashia Muse · William Fleming: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  27. 28 Ariana Markham · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 28 of 28 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Olivia HurdWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 21:01.021:01.020:00.992.2
2Erna DietrichLord Botetourt · JRFinish 21:52.521:52.520:49.975.8
3Julianne BowmanFranklin County · JRFinish 22:13.722:13.721:10.169.1
4Megan HawleyStaunton River · SRFinish 22:52.422:52.421:47.056.8
5Hatlyn HaggertyLord Botetourt · SRFinish 23:29.023:29.022:21.945.2
6Alexa CarilloLord Botetourt · JRFinish 24:39.524:39.523:28.922.8
7Claire GloverWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 25:22.125:22.124:09.69.3
8Riley RothWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 25:43.025:43.024:29.42.7
9Courtney NgoNorthside · JRFinish 25:51.625:51.624:37.6—
10Lauren StenzelStaunton River · FRFinish 26:08.226:08.224:53.4—
11Alexandra BonillaWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 26:11.426:11.424:56.5—
12Elizabeth MeadowsLord Botetourt · SOFinish 26:12.526:12.524:57.5—
13Falan PetersLord Botetourt · SRFinish 26:13.326:13.324:58.3—
14Lucy WhitenackWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 26:31.426:31.425:15.5—
15Anahi Muniz-HernandezWilliam Fleming · SOFinish 27:02.227:02.225:44.9—
16Riley WaldronStaunton River · FRFinish 27:18.627:18.626:00.5—
17Samantha SimmsFranklin County · SOFinish 27:26.527:26.526:08.1—
18Marissa MartinNorthside · SRFinish 27:54.427:54.426:34.6—
19Natalie DavisFranklin County · SRFinish 28:06.928:06.926:46.5—
20Jaidyn VukelichFranklin County · SOFinish 28:10.828:10.826:50.2—
21Karis HambrickLord Botetourt · JRFinish 28:19.628:19.626:58.6—
22Grace CampbellFranklin County · FRFinish 29:11.729:11.727:48.2—
23Sydnee ReedWilliam Fleming · SOFinish 30:58.630:58.629:30.0—
24Jillian HarrisLord Botetourt · SOFinish 31:00.131:00.129:31.4—
25Sisley Del CidWilliam Fleming · SRFinish 31:52.931:52.930:21.7—
26Elizabeth DixonWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 32:40.132:40.131:06.6—
27Tanashia MuseWilliam Fleming · SOFinish 33:59.033:59.032:21.8—
28Ariana MarkhamNorthside · FRFinish 34:49.134:49.133:09.5—

Blue Ridge District Championship 2022, Oct 26, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.