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Sep 24, 2022 · Covington, VA

Alleghany XC Invitational

Jackson River Sports Complex · Historical 2022 results

Other years: 2025 · 2024 · 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 161.7), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

1 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls 5,000 Meter Run

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B

125 of 125 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −24.7 s course and conditions −37.1 s in-season fitness +12.4 sCourse constant 477.72 (478)Race constant 482.16 (482)

124 used anchors± 4.7 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 124 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: the first 50 of 124, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Kiera Lowman · Alleghany: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Claire Keefe · Strasburg: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bull Run District Championship (Oct 26)
  3. 3 Summer Hamlin · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  4. 4 Zoe Belshan · Floyd County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Sadie Wagner · Hidden Valley: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  6. 6 Deena Ludtke · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  7. 7 Nicole Black · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  8. 8 Aylin Yirmibesoglu · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 5 more
  9. 9 Quinn Franklin · Wilson Memorial: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  10. 10 McKenna Spaulding · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  11. 11 Olivia Hurd · William Byrd: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 7 more
  12. 12 Megan Timmes · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  13. 13 Sarah Arner · Hidden Valley: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  14. 14 Paige Hiserman · Strasburg: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bull Run District Championship (Oct 26)
  15. 15 Erna Dietrich · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  16. 16 Mary Malcolm · Liberty (Bedford): Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Thea Franklin · Wilson Memorial: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  18. 18 Leah Altizer · Floyd County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · and 4 more
  19. 19 Addison Mecom · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  20. 20 Hannah Parker · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  21. 21 Reagan Lynch · Floyd County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · and 4 more
  22. 22 Megan Hawley · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 4 more
  23. 23 Macyn Cash · Alleghany: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · and 3 more
  24. 24 Brianna Adams · Liberty (Bedford): Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  25. 25 Abigail Allen · Floyd County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · and 4 more
  26. 26 Dorothy Lewis · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  27. 27 Asia Hoover · Central (Woodstock): VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bull Run District Championship (Oct 26) · and 1 more
  28. 28 Erika Cronk · Wilson Memorial: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  29. 29 Brooke Bowers · Salem (Salem): VHSL Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  30. 30 Lauren Niday · Cave Spring: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  31. 31 Hailey Clark · Liberty (Bedford): 9th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  32. 32 Grace Ballard · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  33. 33 Grace Rolon · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  34. 34 Hatlyn Haggerty · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 3 more
  35. 35 Cairney Smith · Christiansburg: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  36. 36 Emma Willie · Floyd County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · and 4 more
  37. 37 Jordan Wetzel · Cave Spring: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  38. 38 Elizabeth McClung · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  39. 39 Joanna Killeen · Glenvar: VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  40. 40 Kate Holston · Rockbridge County: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · adidas XC Challenge (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  41. 41 Elizabeth Bocock · Salem (Salem): VHSL Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  42. 42 Gracie Conner · Christiansburg: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  43. 43 Everly Shanks · Glenvar: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · and 5 more
  44. 44 Eden Shelhamer · Central (Woodstock): VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bull Run District Championship (Oct 26) · and 1 more
  45. 45 Marissa Martin · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 3) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 26) · and 5 more
  46. 46 Audrey Wallace · Riverheads: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  47. 47 Kyra Lee · Parry McCluer: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 2) · and 2 more
  48. 48 Jasmine Desouza · Parry McCluer: Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  49. 49 Bella Whittle · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  50. 50 Lucy Nicely · Alleghany: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 2) · and 3 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 125 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Kiera LowmanAlleghany · FRFinish 18:41.718:41.719:05.8110.5
2Claire KeefeStrasburg · JRFinish 19:32.919:32.919:58.193.1
3Summer HamlinChristiansburg · JRFinish 19:37.819:37.820:03.191.4
4Zoe BelshanFloyd County · SRFinish 19:43.619:43.620:09.089.5
5Sadie WagnerHidden Valley · SRFinish 19:44.119:44.120:09.589.3
6Deena LudtkeRockbridge County · JRFinish 19:44.419:44.420:09.889.2
7Nicole BlackRockbridge County · JRFinish 19:54.919:54.920:20.685.6
8Aylin YirmibesogluPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · SRFinish 20:13.620:13.620:39.779.2
9Quinn FranklinWilson Memorial · JRFinish 20:26.320:26.320:52.774.9
10McKenna SpauldingChristiansburg · SRFinish 20:27.220:27.220:53.674.6
11Olivia HurdWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 20:28.020:28.020:54.474.3
12Megan TimmesRockbridge County · SRFinish 20:29.420:29.420:55.873.9
13Sarah ArnerHidden Valley · JRFinish 20:31.920:31.920:58.373.0
14Paige HisermanStrasburg · JRFinish 20:40.420:40.421:07.070.1
15Erna DietrichLord Botetourt · JRFinish 21:05.821:05.821:33.061.5
16Mary MalcolmLiberty (Bedford) · JRFinish 21:07.821:07.821:35.060.8
17Thea FranklinWilson Memorial · FRFinish 21:13.921:13.921:41.258.7
18Leah AltizerFloyd County · FRFinish 21:20.721:20.721:48.256.4
19Addison MecomChristiansburg · FRFinish 21:22.121:22.121:49.755.9
20Hannah ParkerChristiansburg · SRFinish 21:27.321:27.321:55.054.1
21Reagan LynchFloyd County · FRFinish 21:28.221:28.221:55.853.9
22Megan HawleyStaunton River · SRFinish 21:31.321:31.321:59.052.8
23Macyn CashAlleghany · JRFinish 21:32.621:32.622:00.352.4
24Brianna AdamsLiberty (Bedford) · JRFinish 21:36.421:36.422:04.351.0
25Abigail AllenFloyd County · FRFinish 21:40.321:40.322:08.249.7
26Dorothy LewisRockbridge County · FRFinish 21:41.321:41.322:09.349.4
27Asia HooverCentral (Woodstock) · JRFinish 21:42.321:42.322:10.349.0
28Erika CronkWilson Memorial · FRFinish 21:43.721:43.722:11.748.6
29Brooke BowersSalem (Salem) · JRFinish 21:48.221:48.222:16.347.0
30Lauren NidayCave Spring · JRFinish 21:48.221:48.222:16.347.0
31Hailey ClarkLiberty (Bedford) · SOFinish 21:52.221:52.222:20.445.7
32Grace BallardChristiansburg · FRFinish 21:53.221:53.222:21.445.3
33Grace RolonRockbridge County · SRFinish 21:53.321:53.322:21.545.3
34Hatlyn HaggertyLord Botetourt · SRFinish 21:54.221:54.222:22.445.0
35Cairney SmithChristiansburg · FRFinish 21:56.621:56.622:24.944.2
36Emma WillieFloyd County · SOFinish 22:02.422:02.422:30.942.2
37Jordan WetzelCave Spring · JRFinish 22:07.322:07.322:35.840.5
38Elizabeth McClungRockbridge County · SRFinish 22:16.922:16.922:45.737.2
39Joanna KilleenGlenvar · JRFinish 22:17.722:17.722:46.437.0
40Kate HolstonRockbridge County · FRFinish 22:24.222:24.222:53.134.8
41Elizabeth BocockSalem (Salem) · SRFinish 22:29.122:29.122:58.033.1
42Gracie ConnerChristiansburg · SOFinish 22:33.222:33.223:02.331.7
43Everly ShanksGlenvar · FRFinish 22:38.622:38.623:07.829.9
44Eden ShelhamerCentral (Woodstock) · JRFinish 22:43.422:43.423:12.728.2
45Marissa MartinNorthside · JRFinish 22:46.722:46.723:16.127.1
46Audrey WallaceRiverheads · JRFinish 22:55.422:55.423:24.924.2
47Kyra LeeParry McCluer · FRFinish 22:55.422:55.423:25.024.1
48Jasmine DesouzaParry McCluer · JRFinish 22:56.422:56.423:25.923.8
49Bella WhittlePatrick Henry (Roanoke) · JRFinish 23:00.823:00.823:30.522.3
50Lucy NicelyAlleghany · SRFinish 23:32.023:32.024:02.411.7
Show all 125 results (75 more)Showing all 125 results · hide rows 51–125
Girls results, rows 51 to 125 of 125
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
52Natalee PowersLiberty (Bedford) · Grade not recordedFinish 23:32.023:32.024:02.411.7
54Neila CoughenourStrasburg · SRFinish 23:32.023:32.024:02.411.7
56Ryan LongSalem (Salem) · SRFinish 23:32.123:32.124:02.411.7
57Rose BochCave Spring · SRFinish 23:32.223:32.224:02.511.6
58Lauren MurrayHidden Valley · JRFinish 23:33.323:33.324:03.711.2
59Sydney TroxellWilson Memorial · FRFinish 23:40.123:40.124:10.68.9
60Natalie WhiteBath County · JRFinish 23:42.823:42.824:13.48.0
61Paige HutchesonEastern Mennonite School · SRFinish 23:43.123:43.124:13.77.9
62Lauren StenzelStaunton River · FRFinish 23:45.823:45.824:16.47.0
63Leila RameyHidden Valley · SOFinish 23:52.923:52.924:23.74.6
64Meredith MinterAlleghany · FRFinish 23:56.823:56.824:27.73.2
65Alivia HooverAlleghany · SRFinish 23:57.123:57.124:28.03.1
66Bryce LeitchAlleghany · JRFinish 23:58.823:58.824:29.72.6
67Emma GrissoStaunton River · FRFinish 23:59.023:59.024:29.92.5
68Riley LarimerChristiansburg · FRFinish 23:59.023:59.024:30.02.5
69Lauren MichealGlenvar · SRFinish 24:01.124:01.124:32.01.8
70Haven CranfordWilson Memorial · FRFinish 24:02.324:02.324:33.31.4
71Claire GrindoLiberty (Bedford) · FRFinish 24:04.924:04.924:35.90.5
72Alexa CarilloLord Botetourt · JRFinish 24:07.924:07.924:39.0—
73Elizabeth MeadowsLord Botetourt · SOFinish 24:08.324:08.324:39.4—
74Anna HallGlenvar · FRFinish 24:18.024:18.024:49.4—
75Amelia DietrichLord Botetourt · JRFinish 24:22.024:22.024:53.4—
76McKenna RimelCentral (Woodstock) · JRFinish 24:29.124:29.125:00.6—
77Callie ConnerSalem (Salem) · SOFinish 24:32.624:32.625:04.2—
78Grace MarroneFloyd County · JRFinish 24:38.324:38.325:10.0—
79Emma FalaticCave Spring · SRFinish 24:43.024:43.025:14.8—
80Grace KinzieHidden Valley · SOFinish 24:46.524:46.525:18.5—
81Eleanor LittlePatrick Henry (Roanoke) · SRFinish 24:48.224:48.225:20.2—
82Becca MillerWilson Memorial · SRFinish 24:59.224:59.225:31.4—
83Falan PetersLord Botetourt · SRFinish 25:02.325:02.325:34.5—
84Meghan MillerWilson Memorial · FRFinish 25:06.525:06.525:38.9—
85Pikea Reynolds-SaintHidden Valley · JRFinish 25:14.725:14.725:47.2—
86Courtney NgoNorthside · JRFinish 25:20.325:20.325:52.9—
87Larah BlevinsFloyd County · JRFinish 25:33.925:33.926:06.8—
88Anika PerryCentral (Woodstock) · FRFinish 25:44.125:44.126:17.2—
89Haley HarmonAlleghany · SOFinish 25:44.125:44.126:17.3—
90Lucy WhitenackWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 25:53.525:53.526:26.9—
91Lauren HoffmanCave Spring · SOFinish 25:56.425:56.426:29.8—
92Sadie AlphinBath County · JRFinish 25:57.025:57.026:30.5—
93Naomi BlackGiles · JRFinish 26:35.126:35.127:09.4—
94Madeline YowellRiverheads · JRFinish 26:39.026:39.027:13.3—
95Hannah ShowmanBroadway · FRFinish 26:42.826:42.827:17.3—
96Ava PulizziCentral (Woodstock) · SOFinish 26:48.926:48.927:23.5—
97Lucie EricksonCentral (Woodstock) · SOFinish 26:56.826:56.827:31.5—
98Lauren ThomasonNorthside · SOFinish 27:06.627:06.627:41.5—
99Victoria Race-WallerJames River (Buchanan) · SOFinish 27:39.627:39.628:15.2—
100Karis HambrickLord Botetourt · JRFinish 27:40.127:40.128:15.8—
101Katherine GeorgeCentral (Woodstock) · FRFinish 27:41.427:41.428:17.1—
102Anahi Muniz-HernandezWilliam Fleming · Grade not recordedFinish 27:44.427:44.428:20.2—
103Madeline RutledgeJames River (Buchanan) · FRFinish 27:44.827:44.828:20.6—
104Bailey WalkerStrasburg · FRFinish 27:51.927:51.928:27.8—
105Kelsey EatonBath County · SOFinish 27:52.627:52.628:28.5—
106Anna DavidsonJames River (Buchanan) · FRFinish 27:58.327:58.328:34.4—
107Eleanor SpeedPulaski County · FRFinish 28:08.728:08.728:45.0—
108Leah McMahanGlenvar · FRFinish 28:13.428:13.428:49.8—
109Izabella LavoieGlenvar · SOFinish 28:26.628:26.629:03.3—
110Ella BlairLiberty (Bedford) · SOFinish 28:39.728:39.729:16.6—
111Bethany BeecherWilliam Byrd · SRFinish 28:49.128:49.129:26.3—
112Jacmyn RinehartJames River (Buchanan) · FRFinish 28:52.328:52.329:29.6—
113Kayli LindsayLiberty (Bedford) · SRFinish 29:05.229:05.229:42.6—
114Sophie BrownCentral (Woodstock) · SOFinish 29:30.829:30.830:08.8—
115Mara CypherRiverheads · SOFinish 29:58.829:58.830:37.4—
116Sydnee ReedWilliam Fleming · SOFinish 30:31.230:31.231:10.5—
117Yazim Lopez-CapoJames River (Buchanan) · SRFinish 30:37.730:37.731:17.2—
118Kailey LesterLiberty (Bedford) · SRFinish 30:41.530:41.531:21.0—
119Alba Suarez BotoStrasburg · SRFinish 30:49.030:49.031:28.7—
120Cecilia MassieRiverheads · FRFinish 30:59.630:59.631:39.6—
121Briana BrownStrasburg · SOFinish 31:18.631:18.631:58.9—
122Emily-Claire HartmanGlenvar · FRFinish 32:00.632:00.632:41.8—
123Alexia AllenGiles · SOFinish 32:08.632:08.632:50.0—
124Tanashia MuseWilliam Fleming · SOFinish 34:09.034:09.034:53.0—
125Patricia EubanksPulaski County · FRFinish 36:37.536:37.537:24.7—
126Kailyn LawGiles · SRFinish 37:20.637:20.638:08.8—
127Emily RobertsonBath County · FRFinish 40:06.240:06.240:57.9—
128Caitlin HaleyBath County · FRFinish 40:15.540:15.541:07.4—

Alleghany XC Invitational, Sep 24, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.