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Oct 26, 2022 · Luray, VA

Bull Run District Championship

Luray HS XC Course · Historical 2022 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Bull Run District XC 2022 - 10/26/2022 Rankings Event 2 Boys 5k Run CC

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C

52 of 52 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −38.0 s course and conditions −15.7 s in-season fitness −22.3 sCourse constant 486.75 (487)Race constant 482.90 (483)

48 used anchors± 8.1 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.973Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 48 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 48, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Davey Johnson · Luray: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  2. 2 Aidan Griffin · Madison County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  3. 3 Evan Roberts · Madison County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  4. 4 Jackson Ellis · Clarke County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  5. 5 Eli Jones · Luray: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  6. 6 James Casey · Clarke County: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  7. 7 Scout Foskett · Madison County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  8. 8 Jude Randall · East Rockingham: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Matthew Stroot · Clarke County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Nicholas Plaksin · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  11. 11 Sam Bartczak · Madison County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  12. 12 Conan O'Neil · East Rockingham: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  13. 13 Logan Heiston · Page County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  14. 14 Nicolas Gruen · Madison County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  15. 15 Gracen Hottle · Strasburg: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
  16. 16 Eiler Yancey · East Rockingham: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Aaron Hensley · Page County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  18. 18 Charlie Hoover · Mountain Vie: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  19. 19 Sean Cave · Page County: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  20. 20 Trenton Eppard · Page County: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  21. 21 Tai Croushore · Mountain Vie: Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  22. 22 Cade Yancey · East Rockingham: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  23. 23 Burns Beckett · Clarke County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  24. 24 James Dalton · Clarke County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  25. 25 Hayden Pence · Central (Woodstock): Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  26. 26 Aday Fonseca-Martin · Mountain Vie: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  27. 27 AJ Bosley · Page County: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  28. 28 Jacob Bowman · Luray: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  29. 29 Nehemiah Thomas · Strasburg: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
  30. 30 Josh Nuckols · Luray: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  31. 31 Brayden McKay · Page County: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  32. 32 Warren Maiberger · Clarke County: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  33. 33 Asher Kite · Page County: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  34. 34 Wyatt Seal · Luray: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  35. 35 Aaron Oakes · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  36. 36 Kyle Layman · Mountain Vie: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  37. 37 Isaac Barb · Central (Woodstock): Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  38. 38 Alex Dean · East Rockingham: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  39. 39 Troy Miller · Madison County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  40. 40 Chris Bonnet · Mountain Vie: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  41. 41 Gavin Smith · Madison County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  42. 43 Marcus Christian · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  43. 44 Brittin Albert · Strasburg: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
  44. 46 Michael Hite · Luray: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  45. 47 Shawne Christian · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  46. 49 Conner Janney · Luray: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  47. 50 Grant Burfield · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  48. 52 Saul Balderas · Strasburg: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 50 of 52 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Davey JohnsonLuray · Grade not recordedFinish 16:30.516:30.516:48.8153.7
2Aidan GriffinMadison County · Grade not recordedFinish 17:36.517:36.517:56.1131.3
3Evan RobertsMadison County · Grade not recordedFinish 17:48.117:48.118:07.9127.3
4Jackson EllisClarke County · Grade not recordedFinish 17:54.917:54.918:14.8125.0
5Eli JonesLuray · Grade not recordedFinish 18:16.418:16.418:36.7117.7
6James CaseyClarke County · Grade not recordedFinish 18:20.018:20.018:40.4116.5
7Scout FoskettMadison County · Grade not recordedFinish 18:21.018:21.018:41.3116.2
8Jude RandallEast Rockingham · Grade not recordedFinish 18:22.018:22.018:42.5115.8
9Matthew StrootClarke County · Grade not recordedFinish 18:25.018:25.018:45.4114.8
10Nicholas PlaksinRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 18:27.218:27.218:47.7114.1
11Sam BartczakMadison County · Grade not recordedFinish 18:32.818:32.818:53.4112.2
12Conan O'NeilEast Rockingham · Grade not recordedFinish 18:33.718:33.718:54.3111.9
13Logan HeistonPage County · Grade not recordedFinish 18:35.318:35.318:56.0111.3
14Nicolas GruenMadison County · Grade not recordedFinish 18:40.618:40.619:01.3109.5
15Gracen HottleStrasburg · Grade not recordedFinish 18:42.618:42.619:03.4108.8
16Eiler YanceyEast Rockingham · Grade not recordedFinish 18:43.418:43.419:04.2108.6
17Aaron HensleyPage County · Grade not recordedFinish 18:44.118:44.119:05.0108.3
18Charlie HooverMountain Vie · Grade not recordedFinish 18:45.018:45.019:05.8108.0
19Sean CavePage County · Grade not recordedFinish 18:47.718:47.719:08.6107.1
20Trenton EppardPage County · Grade not recordedFinish 18:54.118:54.119:15.1104.9
21Tai CroushoreMountain Vie · Grade not recordedFinish 18:58.018:58.019:19.1103.6
22Cade YanceyEast Rockingham · Grade not recordedFinish 19:00.719:00.719:21.8102.7
23Burns BeckettClarke County · Grade not recordedFinish 19:02.919:02.919:24.1102.0
24James DaltonClarke County · Grade not recordedFinish 19:03.219:03.219:24.4101.9
25Hayden PenceCentral (Woodstock) · Grade not recordedFinish 19:03.619:03.619:24.8101.7
26Aday Fonseca-MartinMountain Vie · Grade not recordedFinish 19:04.919:04.919:26.1101.3
27AJ BosleyPage County · Grade not recordedFinish 19:07.619:07.619:28.8100.4
28Jacob BowmanLuray · Grade not recordedFinish 19:23.219:23.219:44.895.0
29Nehemiah ThomasStrasburg · Grade not recordedFinish 19:32.319:32.319:54.192.0
30Josh NuckolsLuray · Grade not recordedFinish 19:42.419:42.420:04.388.5
31Brayden McKayPage County · Grade not recordedFinish 19:45.619:45.620:07.687.4
32Warren MaibergerClarke County · Grade not recordedFinish 19:47.619:47.620:09.686.8
33Asher KitePage County · Grade not recordedFinish 19:51.819:51.820:13.885.4
34Wyatt SealLuray · Grade not recordedFinish 20:10.520:10.520:32.979.0
35Aaron OakesRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 20:17.320:17.320:39.876.7
36Kyle LaymanMountain Vie · Grade not recordedFinish 20:23.320:23.320:46.074.6
37Isaac BarbCentral (Woodstock) · Grade not recordedFinish 20:25.920:25.920:48.673.8
38Alex DeanEast Rockingham · Grade not recordedFinish 20:30.020:30.020:52.872.4
39Troy MillerMadison County · Grade not recordedFinish 20:32.020:32.020:54.871.7
40Chris BonnetMountain Vie · Grade not recordedFinish 20:38.620:38.621:01.569.5
41Gavin SmithMadison County · Grade not recordedFinish 20:39.820:39.821:02.769.1
42Wyatt HockmanStrasburg · Grade not recordedFinish 20:49.020:49.021:12.165.9
43Marcus ChristianRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 20:51.420:51.421:14.665.1
44Brittin AlbertStrasburg · Grade not recordedFinish 20:56.720:56.721:19.963.3
45Rylan GerkenEast Rocking · Grade not recordedFinish 21:01.121:01.121:24.561.8
46Michael HiteLuray · Grade not recordedFinish 21:03.121:03.121:26.561.2
47Shawne ChristianRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 21:08.121:08.121:31.659.4
48Anthony AtchariyakornchaiStrasburg · Grade not recordedFinish 21:47.021:47.022:11.246.3
49Conner JanneyLuray · Grade not recordedFinish 22:04.622:04.622:29.140.3
50Grant BurfieldRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 22:06.622:06.622:31.139.6
Show all 52 results (2 more)Showing all 52 results · hide rows 51–52
Boys results, rows 51 to 52 of 52
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Elliot ArtzCentral (Woodstock) · Grade not recordedFinish 22:17.322:17.322:42.135.9
52Saul BalderasStrasburg · Grade not recordedFinish 22:27.222:27.222:52.232.6

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls 5000 Meter Run

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B

45 of 45 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −12.2 s course and conditions +11.4 s in-season fitness −23.6 sCourse constant 497.79 (498)Race constant 494.71 (495)

38 used anchors± 5.2 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 38 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 38, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Teya Starley · Clarke County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  2. 2 Claire Keefe · Strasburg: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
  3. 3 Katelyn Martin · East Rockingham: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Eden Shelhamer · Central (Woodstock): VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  5. 5 Summer Kite · Page County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  6. 6 Courtney Weakley · Madison County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  7. 7 Paige Hiserman · Strasburg: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
  8. 8 Briana Plum · Luray: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  9. 9 Jesela Cooper · East Rockingham: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Asia Hoover · Central (Woodstock): VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  11. 11 Carolina Wood · Luray: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Jordyn Foster · Stonewall Jackson: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  13. 13 Abigail Cochran · Clarke County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  14. 14 Elena Stroot · Clarke County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  15. 15 Neila Coughenour · Strasburg: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
  16. 16 Miranda King · Clarke County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  17. 17 Jadyn Foster · Stonewall Jackson: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  18. 18 Ashby Hunt · Clarke County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  19. 19 Laniah Hoover · Central (Woodstock): VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  20. 20 Maryn Cave · Page County: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  21. 21 Aubrey Wagner · Clarke County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  22. 22 Anika Perry · Central (Woodstock): VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  23. 23 McKenna Rimel · Central (Woodstock): VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  24. 25 Lucie Erickson · Central (Woodstock): VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  25. 27 Erin Savedge · Luray: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  26. 29 Trinity Stanley · Stonewall Jackson: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  27. 30 Emma Rinaca · Page County: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  28. 31 Ava Pulizzi · Central (Woodstock): VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  29. 33 Alayna Roy · Luray: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  30. 34 Bailey Walker · Strasburg: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
  31. 35 Lou Gossens · Rappahannock County: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  32. 38 Marta Milam · Page County: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  33. 39 Elena Brown · Luray: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17)
  34. 41 Emma Brown · Rappahannock County: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  35. 42 Rachelle Anderson · Stonewall Jackson: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  36. 43 Alba Suarez Boto · Strasburg: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
  37. 44 Briana Brown · Strasburg: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
  38. 45 Dannia Gomez · East Rockingham: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 45 of 45 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Teya StarleyClarke County · SOFinish 19:56.819:56.819:51.595.3
2Claire KeefeStrasburg · JRFinish 20:12.520:12.520:07.190.1
3Katelyn MartinEast Rockingham · JRFinish 21:17.221:17.221:11.668.6
4Eden ShelhamerCentral (Woodstock) · JRFinish 21:17.521:17.521:11.868.5
5Summer KitePage County · JRFinish 21:46.421:46.421:40.559.0
6Courtney WeakleyMadison County · JRFinish 21:50.021:50.021:44.257.7
7Paige HisermanStrasburg · JRFinish 21:50.921:50.921:45.057.4
8Briana PlumLuray · FRFinish 21:52.121:52.121:46.357.0
9Jesela CooperEast Rockingham · SRFinish 21:56.921:56.921:51.055.5
10Asia HooverCentral (Woodstock) · JRFinish 22:05.122:05.121:59.252.7
11Carolina WoodLuray · FRFinish 22:12.422:12.422:06.550.3
12Jordyn FosterStonewall Jackson · JRFinish 22:26.522:26.522:20.545.6
13Abigail CochranClarke County · SOFinish 22:39.722:39.722:33.741.2
14Elena StrootClarke County · FRFinish 22:41.522:41.522:35.540.6
15Neila CoughenourStrasburg · SRFinish 23:05.923:05.922:59.732.6
16Miranda KingClarke County · FRFinish 23:09.423:09.423:03.231.4
17Jadyn FosterStonewall Jackson · JRFinish 23:22.023:22.023:15.827.2
18Ashby HuntClarke County · FRFinish 23:26.723:26.723:20.525.6
19Laniah HooverCentral (Woodstock) · SRFinish 23:57.423:57.423:51.015.5
20Maryn CavePage County · FRFinish 24:05.524:05.523:59.012.8
21Aubrey WagnerClarke County · FRFinish 24:20.624:20.624:14.17.8
22Anika PerryCentral (Woodstock) · SOFinish 24:43.324:43.324:36.70.2
23McKenna RimelCentral (Woodstock) · JRFinish 25:13.225:13.225:06.5—
24Annika BurnsideMadison County · JRFinish 25:19.225:19.225:12.4—
25Lucie EricksonCentral (Woodstock) · SOFinish 25:29.225:29.225:22.4—
26Lyndsay JenkinsMadison County · JRFinish 25:59.625:59.625:52.7—
27Erin SavedgeLuray · JRFinish 26:48.426:48.426:41.3—
28DiNapoli AlexandraMadison County · SOFinish 26:55.626:55.626:48.4—
29Trinity StanleyStonewall Jackson · SOFinish 27:00.227:00.226:53.0—
30Emma RinacaPage County · JRFinish 27:00.527:00.526:53.3—
31Ava PulizziCentral (Woodstock) · SOFinish 27:31.727:31.727:24.4—
32Delaney CrueyMadison County · SRFinish 27:35.727:35.727:28.3—
33Alayna RoyLuray · SOFinish 27:46.127:46.127:38.7—
34Bailey WalkerStrasburg · FRFinish 27:49.727:49.727:42.3—
35Lou GossensRappahannock County · SRFinish 28:00.728:00.727:53.2—
36Riley CookeMadison County · FRFinish 28:18.328:18.328:10.7—
37Malia RuffnerMadison County · SOFinish 28:36.428:36.428:28.8—
38Marta MilamPage County · SRFinish 28:49.728:49.728:42.0—
39Elena BrownLuray · FRFinish 28:56.428:56.428:48.7—
40Leah DiehlStonewall Jackson · SOFinish 29:42.729:42.729:34.8—
41Emma BrownRappahannock County · SOFinish 30:08.330:08.330:00.2—
42Rachelle AndersonStonewall Jackson · SOFinish 30:21.130:21.130:13.0—
43Alba Suarez BotoStrasburg · SRFinish 30:37.230:37.230:29.1—
44Briana BrownStrasburg · SOFinish 31:35.631:35.631:27.1—
45Dannia GomezEast Rockingham · SRFinish 32:33.332:33.332:24.6—

Bull Run District Championship, Oct 26, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.