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Nov 2, 2022 · Altavista, VA

VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships 2022

Frazier Farms · Historical 2022 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

VHSL Group 1A Region B Frazier Farms, Altavista, VA - 11/2/2022 Men's 5000 Meters

C

46 of 46 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +6.2 s course and conditions +29.3 s in-season fitness −23.2 sCourse constant 502.40 (502)Race constant 498.30 (498)

41 used anchors± 7.0 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.973Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 41 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 41, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Alexander Gomez-Hernandez · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Shane Stevens · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  3. 3 Jackson Herndon · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Jalyn Jones · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  5. 5 Jackson Brammer · Riverheads: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  6. 6 Samuel Harrison · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  7. 7 Nicholas Plaksin · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bull Run District Championship (Oct 26)
  8. 8 Jackson Easley · Galileo: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Alex Duquette · Buffalo Gap: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  10. 10 Mason Comer · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  11. 11 Neil Shroff · Galileo: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · 9th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Azriel Kelly · Altavista: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  13. 13 Aaron Oakes · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bull Run District Championship (Oct 26)
  14. 14 Joel Phillips · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  15. 15 Joseph Derrick · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  16. 16 Mason Betterton · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  17. 17 Pheno Glover · Franklin: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  18. 18 Josiah Monroe · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Joseph Yoder · William Campbell: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  20. 20 Marcus Christian · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bull Run District Championship (Oct 26)
  21. 21 Cole Reed · Buffalo Gap: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  22. 22 Luke Cypher · Riverheads: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  23. 23 Shawne Christian · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bull Run District Championship (Oct 26)
  24. 25 Ramsey Hanger · Riverheads: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  25. 26 Colten Obaugh · Riverheads: Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · Eastern Mennonite Invitational (Sep 10)
  26. 27 Ben Harrison · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  27. 28 Joey Isaman · William Campbell: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  28. 29 Blake Dease · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  29. 30 Elijah Frossard · Riverheads: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  30. 32 Kiernan DeBernard · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  31. 33 John Mitchell · Cumberland: James River District Championship (Oct 19) · Southside XC Invitational (Aug 24)
  32. 34 Thomas Hungarland · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  33. 35 John Miller · Riverheads: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  34. 36 James Lam · Buffalo Gap: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  35. 37 Aidan Starcher · Buffalo Gap: Grace Christian (Staunton) Invitational (Oct 15) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  36. 39 Zain Zain · Galileo: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19)
  37. 40 Guillermo Basurto-Cacho, Jr. · Riverheads: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  38. 41 Alexander Gonzalez-Hernandez · Cumberland: James River District Championship (Oct 19)
  39. 42 Salvatore Colao · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  40. 44 Cahjmeir Williams · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  41. 45 Jordan Johnson · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 46 of 46 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Alexander Gomez-HernandezGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 17:26.517:26.517:06.9147.7
2Shane StevensAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 17:32.117:32.117:12.3145.9
3Jackson HerndonGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 17:43.317:43.317:23.3142.2
4Jalyn JonesGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 17:46.817:46.817:26.8141.0
5Jackson BrammerRiverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 18:56.318:56.318:35.0118.3
6Samuel HarrisonFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 19:19.419:19.418:57.6110.8
7Nicholas PlaksinRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 19:19.619:19.618:57.8110.7
8Jackson EasleyGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 19:57.719:57.719:35.298.2
9Alex DuquetteBuffalo Gap · Grade not recordedFinish 19:59.119:59.119:36.697.8
10Mason ComerRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 20:15.320:15.319:52.592.5
11Neil ShroffGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 20:24.120:24.120:01.189.6
12Azriel KellyAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 20:34.420:34.420:11.286.2
13Aaron OakesRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 20:35.620:35.620:12.485.8
14Joel PhillipsAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 20:40.820:40.820:17.584.1
15Joseph DerrickAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 20:50.120:50.120:26.681.1
16Mason BettertonAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 20:59.820:59.820:36.177.9
17Pheno GloverFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 21:07.621:07.620:43.875.4
18Josiah MonroeWilliam Campbell · Grade not recordedFinish 21:19.121:19.120:55.171.6
19Joseph YoderWilliam Campbell · Grade not recordedFinish 21:29.721:29.721:05.568.1
20Marcus ChristianRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 21:38.221:38.221:13.865.4
21Cole ReedBuffalo Gap · Grade not recordedFinish 21:45.721:45.721:21.262.9
22Luke CypherRiverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 21:55.521:55.521:30.859.7
23Shawne ChristianRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 22:09.522:09.521:44.555.1
24Victor Cruz-AraujoCumberland · Grade not recordedFinish 22:13.022:13.021:48.054.0
25Ramsey HangerRiverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 22:24.622:24.621:59.450.2
26Colten ObaughRiverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 22:31.222:31.222:05.848.0
27Ben HarrisonFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 22:31.322:31.322:05.948.0
28Joey IsamanWilliam Campbell · Grade not recordedFinish 22:42.222:42.222:16.644.4
29Blake DeaseAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 22:47.522:47.522:21.842.7
30Elijah FrossardRiverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 22:58.522:58.522:32.639.1
31Mullins SpencerARGS · Grade not recordedFinish 23:02.623:02.622:36.637.8
32Kiernan DeBernardAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 23:18.023:18.022:51.832.7
33John MitchellCumberland · Grade not recordedFinish 23:40.023:40.023:13.325.5
34Thomas HungarlandGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 23:49.023:49.023:22.222.6
35John MillerRiverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 23:59.823:59.823:32.819.1
36James LamBuffalo Gap · Grade not recordedFinish 24:04.024:04.023:36.917.7
37Aidan StarcherBuffalo Gap · Grade not recordedFinish 24:22.424:22.423:54.911.7
38Trey RoneyCarver Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 24:26.024:26.023:58.510.5
39Zain ZainGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 24:27.824:27.824:00.29.9
40Guillermo Basurto-Cacho, Jr.Riverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 24:58.624:58.624:30.5—
41Alexander Gonzalez-HernandezCumberland · Grade not recordedFinish 25:07.625:07.624:39.3—
42Salvatore ColaoFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 25:23.525:23.524:54.9—
43Dewey RoneyCarver Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 27:09.827:09.826:39.2—
44Cahjmeir WilliamsFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 28:20.228:20.227:48.3—
45Jordan JohnsonFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 30:44.130:44.130:09.5—
46Brandon PurcellCarver Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 34:12.034:12.033:33.5—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Women's 5000 Meters

C

34 of 34 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +3.4 s course and conditions +27.3 s in-season fitness −23.9 sCourse constant 505.60 (506)Race constant 502.26 (502)

33 used anchors± 11.2 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 33 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 33, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Carol-Anne Garrett · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Samaria Little · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  3. 3 Camila Rodriguez · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Ava Wray · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Abigail Spickard · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Rowan Kirk · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Sierra Back · Riverheads: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Lauralee Spickard · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Natalie Owen · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19)
  10. 10 Braelyn Wilson · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Jessica Dowdy · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  12. 13 Madeline Yowell · Riverheads: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · and 2 more
  13. 14 Sophia Markowitz · Galileo: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · and 2 more
  14. 15 Micah Andrews · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  15. 16 Danilu Acevedo-Garcia · Galileo: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 19) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10) · and 2 more
  16. 17 Nishay Rapach · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  17. 18 Emma Brown · Rappahannock County: Bull Run District Championship (Oct 26)
  18. 19 Kimberly Baker · Cumberland: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · James River District Championship (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  19. 20 Willow Savor · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  20. 21 Nalonda Henderson · Cumberland: James River District Championship (Oct 19) · Southside XC Invitational (Aug 24)
  21. 22 Christina Jones · Cumberland: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · James River District Championship (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  22. 23 Lou Gossens · Rappahannock County: Bull Run District Championship (Oct 26)
  23. 24 Cecilia Massie · Riverheads: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  24. 25 Chimere Brown · Cumberland: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  25. 26 Alexis Manila · Appomattox Regional: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  26. 27 Mara Cypher · Riverheads: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24) · Augusta Invitational Meet (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  27. 28 Sarah Reynolds · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8)
  28. 29 Zariah Mitchell · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  29. 30 Layla Battle · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  30. 31 Iz'Real Smith · William Campbell: Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  31. 32 Alanna Boone · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  32. 33 Abby Felts · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  33. 34 Kahlissah Burnham · Franklin: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 34 of 34 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Carol-Anne GarrettGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 20:07.520:07.519:46.696.9
2Samaria LittleAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 22:30.222:30.222:06.850.2
3Camila RodriguezGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 23:10.323:10.322:46.237.1
4Ava WrayGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 23:29.423:29.423:05.030.8
5Abigail SpickardWilliam Campbell · Grade not recordedFinish 23:43.223:43.223:18.526.3
6Rowan KirkGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 24:00.524:00.523:35.520.6
7Sierra BackRiverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 24:25.124:25.123:59.712.6
8Lauralee SpickardWilliam Campbell · Grade not recordedFinish 24:48.824:48.824:23.04.8
9Natalie OwenGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 25:07.425:07.424:41.3—
10Braelyn WilsonWilliam Campbell · Grade not recordedFinish 25:13.525:13.524:47.3—
11Jessica DowdyAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 26:03.826:03.825:36.7—
12Samara LongCumberland · Grade not recordedFinish 26:18.426:18.425:51.0—
13Madeline YowellRiverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 26:26.026:26.025:58.5—
14Sophia MarkowitzGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 26:33.926:33.926:06.3—
15Micah AndrewsAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 26:48.526:48.526:20.6—
16Danilu Acevedo-GarciaGalileo · Grade not recordedFinish 27:57.427:57.427:28.3—
17Nishay RapachFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 28:06.528:06.527:37.3—
18Emma BrownRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 28:24.528:24.527:55.0—
19Kimberly BakerCumberland · Grade not recordedFinish 28:25.228:25.227:55.6—
20Willow SavorAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 28:28.328:28.327:58.7—
21Nalonda HendersonCumberland · Grade not recordedFinish 28:37.628:37.628:07.8—
22Christina JonesCumberland · Grade not recordedFinish 28:40.328:40.328:10.5—
23Lou GossensRappahannock County · Grade not recordedFinish 29:08.129:08.128:37.8—
24Cecilia MassieRiverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 29:38.329:38.329:07.5—
25Chimere BrownCumberland · Grade not recordedFinish 30:01.630:01.629:30.4—
26Alexis ManilaAppomattox Regional · Grade not recordedFinish 30:20.730:20.729:49.1—
27Mara CypherRiverheads · Grade not recordedFinish 30:31.630:31.629:59.8—
28Sarah ReynoldsAltavista · Grade not recordedFinish 31:07.231:07.230:34.8—
29Zariah MitchellFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 33:41.733:41.733:06.7—
30Layla BattleFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 33:41.733:41.733:06.7—
31Iz'Real SmithWilliam Campbell · Grade not recordedFinish 37:34.137:34.136:55.0—
32Alanna BooneFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 40:59.040:59.040:16.4—
33Abby FeltsFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 41:11.241:11.240:28.4—
34Kahlissah BurnhamFranklin · Grade not recordedFinish 41:14.441:14.440:31.5—
Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.