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Nov 6, 2024 · Altavista, VA

VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships

Frazier Farms · Historical 2024 results

Other years: 2025 · 2023 · 2022

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships mp Frazier Farms, Altavista, VA - 11/6/2024 Varsity Boys 5k

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D

36 of 36 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +65.9 s course and conditions +91.2 s in-season fitness −25.4 sCourse constant 521.45 (521)Race constant 517.83 (518)

35 used anchors± 18.7 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 488.695Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 35 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 35, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Shane Stevens · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Daniel Roman · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Mason Comer · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Aaron Oakes · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  5. 5 Barak Tahirkhali · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  6. 6 Josiah Monroe · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Victor Cruz-Araujo · Cumberland: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16)
  8. 8 Drew Robinson · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Aiden Robinson · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Joel Wangsgard · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  11. 11 Nicholas Burfield · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Mason Betterton · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  13. 13 Gabe Updike · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  14. 14 Henry Loth · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  15. 15 Na'Tevis Toney · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  16. 16 Luke Bryant · Galileo: Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 23) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Zain Zain · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  18. 18 Noah Lilly · Buffalo Gap: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Shenandoah District Cross Country Championships (Oct 30) · and 3 more
  19. 19 Donnovan Perez · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  20. 20 Ayden O'Berry · Appomattox Reg. Gov. School: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 16)
  21. 21 Nolan Ward · Buffalo Gap: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Shenandoah District Cross Country Championships (Oct 30) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Jaylen Williams · William Campbell: Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 23) · and 1 more
  23. 23 Sylar Farmer · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  24. 24 Brayden Childress · William Campbell: Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 23) · and 1 more
  25. 25 Kayvan Daughty · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  26. 26 Liam Murphy · Buffalo Gap: Shenandoah District Cross Country Championships (Oct 30) · Griffin Invitational (Sep 21) · and 2 more
  27. 27 Wes King · Buffalo Gap: Shenandoah District Cross Country Championships (Oct 30) · Griffin Invitational (Sep 21) · and 2 more
  28. 28 ReShaud Rich · ARGS: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 16)
  29. 29 Jason Dowdy · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  30. 30 Aidin Nowlin · William Campbell: Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 23) · and 1 more
  31. 31 Jonah Callozo-Heifetz · ARGS: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 16)
  32. 32 Printice Stone · William Campbell: Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 23) · and 1 more
  33. 33 Robert Jennings · William Campbell: Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30)
  34. 34 David Arthur · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Blue Ridge Invitational (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  35. 36 Dylan Nelson · William Campbell: Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 23)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 36 of 36 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Shane StevensAltavista · SRFinish 17:10.617:10.616:03.6167.5
2Daniel RomanGalileo · SRFinish 19:04.619:04.617:50.1132.0
3Mason ComerRappahannock County · JRFinish 19:18.919:18.918:03.5127.5
4Aaron OakesRappahannock County · JRFinish 19:23.519:23.518:07.8126.1
5Barak TahirkhaliGalileo · SOFinish 19:41.619:41.618:24.7120.4
6Josiah MonroeAltavista · SRFinish 19:45.819:45.818:28.7119.1
7Victor Cruz-AraujoCumberland · JRFinish 19:48.319:48.318:31.0118.4
8Drew RobinsonRappahannock County · SOFinish 20:25.120:25.119:05.4106.9
9Aiden RobinsonRappahannock County · SOFinish 20:36.520:36.519:16.1103.3
10Joel WangsgardRappahannock County · JRFinish 20:46.920:46.919:25.8100.1
11Nicholas BurfieldRappahannock County · FRFinish 21:15.421:15.419:52.491.2
12Mason BettertonAltavista · SRFinish 21:24.621:24.620:01.088.3
13Gabe UpdikeWilliam Campbell · SOFinish 21:35.921:35.920:11.684.8
14Henry LothRappahannock County · JRFinish 21:40.621:40.620:16.083.4
15Na'Tevis ToneyGalileo · SRFinish 21:56.621:56.620:31.078.4
16Luke BryantGalileo · FRFinish 22:08.722:08.720:42.374.6
17Zain ZainGalileo · JRFinish 22:15.822:15.820:48.972.4
18Noah LillyBuffalo Gap · FRFinish 22:21.422:21.420:54.170.6
19Donnovan PerezGalileo · JRFinish 22:26.022:26.020:58.469.2
20Ayden O'BerryAppomattox Reg. Gov. School · FRFinish 22:45.822:45.821:17.063.0
21Nolan WardBuffalo Gap · FRFinish 23:05.723:05.721:35.656.8
22Jaylen WilliamsWilliam Campbell · SRFinish 23:28.623:28.621:57.049.7
23Sylar FarmerAltavista · JRFinish 24:01.724:01.722:27.939.4
24Brayden ChildressWilliam Campbell · SOFinish 24:05.024:05.022:31.038.4
25Kayvan DaughtyAltavista · FRFinish 24:39.524:39.523:03.327.6
26Liam MurphyBuffalo Gap · SOFinish 24:45.524:45.523:08.925.7
27Wes KingBuffalo Gap · SOFinish 24:57.024:57.023:19.622.2
28ReShaud RichARGS · SOFinish 25:00.225:00.223:22.621.2
29Jason DowdyAltavista · FRFinish 25:23.525:23.523:44.413.9
30Aidin NowlinWilliam Campbell · FRFinish 25:41.425:41.424:01.18.3
31Jonah Callozo-HeifetzARGS · JRFinish 28:26.428:26.426:35.4—
32Printice StoneWilliam Campbell · JRFinish 30:39.830:39.828:40.1—
33Robert JenningsWilliam Campbell · SOFinish 31:05.431:05.429:04.1—
34David ArthurAltavista · SOFinish 31:30.931:30.929:27.9—
35Jack HackettCarver Academy · SOFinish 31:47.231:47.229:43.1—
36Dylan NelsonWilliam Campbell · SRFinish 34:21.934:21.932:07.8—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls Varsity 5k

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C

24 of 24 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +97.7 s course and conditions +125.8 s in-season fitness −28.1 sCourse constant 551.01 (551)Race constant 544.51 (545)

24 used anchors± 11.5 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.063Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 24 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 24, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Maya Herndon · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  2. 2 Lauralee Spickard · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  3. 3 Kinsley Kistner · Appomattox Reg. Gov. School: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 16)
  4. 4 Victoria Cothran · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Sania Little · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Camryn Snead · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  7. 7 Salina Little · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Jessie Arthur · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  9. 9 Lorelei Wray · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  10. 10 Willow Savor · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  11. 11 Adlin Hubble · Rappahannock County: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  12. 12 Samantha Van Opstal · Galileo: Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  13. 13 Reagan Gwaltney · Buffalo Gap: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Shenandoah District Cross Country Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  14. 14 Estella Short · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  15. 15 Emily Aguirre- Jimenez · Buffalo Gap: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Shenandoah District Cross Country Championships (Oct 30)
  16. 16 Mia Isaman · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  17. 17 Lila Ashwell · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  18. 18 Kayla Hudgens · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Selma Hamilton · Appomattox Reg. Gov. School: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 16)
  20. 20 Chloe Banks · Rappahannock County: Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 14) · Trials of Miles Opening Night (Aug 30)
  21. 21 Maggie Spickard · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  22. 22 Peighton Francis · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Cadence Adams · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  24. 24 Iz'Real Smith · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Dogwood District XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 24 of 24 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Maya HerndonGalileo · SRFinish 22:47.822:47.820:46.476.6
2Lauralee SpickardWilliam Campbell · JRFinish 23:26.223:26.221:21.464.9
3Kinsley KistnerAppomattox Reg. Gov. School · SRFinish 24:01.624:01.621:53.654.2
4Victoria CothranAltavista · SRFinish 24:57.624:57.622:44.737.2
5Sania LittleAltavista · JRFinish 25:50.225:50.223:32.621.2
6Camryn SneadGalileo · SOFinish 26:13.626:13.623:53.914.1
7Salina LittleAltavista · JRFinish 27:09.727:09.724:45.1—
8Jessie ArthurGalileo · FRFinish 27:13.827:13.824:48.8—
9Lorelei WrayGalileo · JRFinish 28:08.928:08.925:39.0—
10Willow SavorAltavista · SRFinish 28:33.928:33.926:01.8—
11Adlin HubbleRappahannock County · FRFinish 28:55.428:55.426:21.4—
12Samantha Van OpstalGalileo · SOFinish 29:11.929:11.926:36.4—
13Reagan GwaltneyBuffalo Gap · SOFinish 29:53.329:53.327:14.1—
14Estella ShortWilliam Campbell · JRFinish 30:42.030:42.027:58.5—
15Emily Aguirre- JimenezBuffalo Gap · SOFinish 31:16.831:16.828:30.2—
16Mia IsamanWilliam Campbell · FRFinish 31:45.931:45.928:56.7—
17Lila AshwellAltavista · FRFinish 32:22.132:22.129:29.7—
18Kayla HudgensWilliam Campbell · SRFinish 32:26.332:26.329:33.6—
19Selma HamiltonAppomattox Reg. Gov. School · SOFinish 33:29.333:29.330:31.0—
20Chloe BanksRappahannock County · FRFinish 36:07.436:07.432:55.0—
21Maggie SpickardWilliam Campbell · FRFinish 36:12.836:12.833:00.0—
22Peighton FrancisWilliam Campbell · JRFinish 37:33.337:33.334:13.3—
23Cadence AdamsAltavista · FRFinish 40:37.840:37.837:01.4—
24Iz'Real SmithWilliam Campbell · SRFinish 42:39.242:39.238:52.1—

VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships, Nov 6, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.