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Oct 5, 2024 · Troutville, VA

blue ridge invitational 2024

Greenfield Recreation Park 5K Course · Historical 2024 results

Other years: 2025 · 2023 · 2022

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Girls results are not shown: no girl at this meet rated above 100 (top 92.9), so its girls races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

2 of 3 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero. JV races are not calculated on their own. Each uses its meet’s varsity adjustment plus a JV adjustment.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Boys 5000 Meter Run

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C

75 of 75 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +56.9 s course and conditions +64.8 s in-season fitness −7.9 sCourse constant 512.23 (512)Race constant 511.45 (511)

75 used anchors± 6.7 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 488.695Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 75 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: the first 50 of 75, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Eric Duncan · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · and 6 more
  2. 2 Spencer Britton · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 1) · and 6 more
  3. 3 Finton Chaney · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  4. 4 Shane Stevens · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  5. 5 Nicholas Foster · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  6. 6 Justus Horner · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 1) · and 6 more
  7. 7 Josh Miao · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  8. 8 Jarrett Bjurman-Birr · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 4 more
  9. 9 Harry Anderson · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 1) · and 6 more
  10. 10 Sullivan Armstead · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 5 more
  11. 11 Colter Meritt · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  12. 12 Colton Sotherden · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 5 more
  13. 13 Carter Naff · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 5 more
  14. 14 Peter Anderson · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 1) · and 6 more
  15. 15 Trevor Cole · Auburn: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 1C XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  16. 16 Bryce Woodford · Staunton River: Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · James River Knights Hsms Invitational (Oct 12) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Lukas Velich · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23)
  18. 18 Isaac Light · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 5 more
  19. 19 Emery Maxson · Southwest Virginia Academy: James River Knights Hsms Invitational (Oct 12) · CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 14)
  20. 20 Nathan Moser · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 6 more
  21. 21 Silas Jacks · Southwest Virginia Academy: CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 14)
  22. 22 Mason Betterton · Altavista: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 6) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Maverick Johnston · Southwest Virginia Academy: James River Knights Hsms Invitational (Oct 12) · CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 14)
  24. 24 Drew Bartley · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 5 more
  25. 25 Joel Butler · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 5 more
  26. 26 Rhodes Aaron · Roanoke Catholic School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  27. 27 Lucas Carswell · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  28. 28 Archer Lee · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 6 more
  29. 29 John Moughrabi · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  30. 30 Reid Workman · Southwest Virginia Academy: James River Knights Hsms Invitational (Oct 12) · CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 14)
  31. 31 Yan Pablo Cano Morale · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 3 more
  32. 32 Zenon Malick · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 5 more
  33. 33 Daniel Owen-O'Quill · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · Maroon Tide Invitational (Sep 18) · and 2 more
  34. 34 Aiden Bai · North Cross School: Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 21) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 7) · and 1 more
  35. 35 Griffin Breakell · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 6) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 2 more
  36. 36 Graham Dietrich · Lord Botetourt: Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  37. 37 Wyatt Martin · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 21) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 7)
  38. 38 Carter Haas · Staunton River: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  39. 39 Caleb Miao · North Cross School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  40. 40 Garrett Sutton · Lord Botetourt: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 7 more
  41. 41 Elias Payne · Southwest Virginia Academy: James River Knights Hsms Invitational (Oct 12)
  42. 42 Alan Lam · Northside: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  43. 43 Cort Workman · Southwest Virginia Academy: James River Knights Hsms Invitational (Oct 12) · CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 14)
  44. 44 Zach Payne · Southwest Virginia Academy: James River Knights Hsms Invitational (Oct 12)
  45. 45 Nathaniel Moore · Lord Botetourt: Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · and 4 more
  46. 46 Aaron Hancock · Staunton River: James River Knights Hsms Invitational (Oct 12) · CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 14) · and 2 more
  47. 47 Riley Slusher · William Byrd: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 6) · Blue Ridge District Championship (Oct 30) · and 5 more
  48. 48 Sam Mohnsen · Southwest Virginia Academy: James River Knights Hsms Invitational (Oct 12) · CLASH WITH THE TITANS (Sep 14)
  49. 49 Scott Boniface · Southwest Virginia Academy: James River Knights Hsms Invitational (Oct 12)
  50. 50 Parker Gautier · Patrick Henry (Roanoke): Metro XC Championships (Oct 23) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 21) · and 2 more
Boys results, places shown 1 to 50 of 75 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Eric DuncanLord Botetourt · JRFinish 16:29.616:29.615:38.1176.0
2Spencer BrittonNorth Cross School · SOFinish 17:10.117:10.116:16.5163.2
3Finton ChaneyNorth Cross School · SOFinish 17:50.017:50.016:54.4150.5
4Shane StevensAltavista · SRFinish 18:08.518:08.517:11.9144.7
5Nicholas FosterRoanoke Catholic School · JRFinish 19:12.919:12.918:13.0124.4
6Justus HornerNorth Cross School · FRFinish 19:19.719:19.718:19.4122.2
7Josh MiaoNorth Cross School · SRFinish 19:33.919:33.918:32.9117.7
8Jarrett Bjurman-BirrPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · JRFinish 19:35.219:35.218:34.1117.3
9Harry AndersonNorth Cross School · SRFinish 19:35.219:35.218:34.1117.3
10Sullivan ArmsteadPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · SOFinish 20:06.620:06.619:03.9107.4
11Colter MerittNorthside · SRFinish 20:08.020:08.019:05.3106.9
12Colton SotherdenWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 20:09.120:09.119:06.2106.6
13Carter NaffPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · FRFinish 20:20.820:20.819:17.4102.9
14Peter AndersonNorth Cross School · SOFinish 20:28.220:28.219:24.3100.6
15Trevor ColeAuburn · SOFinish 20:29.720:29.719:25.8100.1
16Bryce WoodfordStaunton River · SOFinish 20:33.420:33.419:29.398.9
17Lukas VelichPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · JRFinish 20:33.920:33.919:29.898.8
18Isaac LightPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · SOFinish 20:34.120:34.119:29.998.7
19Emery MaxsonSouthwest Virginia Academy · SOFinish 20:45.020:45.019:40.395.3
20Nathan MoserLord Botetourt · FRFinish 20:56.320:56.319:51.091.7
21Silas JacksSouthwest Virginia Academy · JRFinish 21:05.421:05.419:59.788.8
22Mason BettertonAltavista · SRFinish 21:07.621:07.620:01.788.1
23Maverick JohnstonSouthwest Virginia Academy · JRFinish 21:09.921:09.920:03.987.4
24Drew BartleyWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 21:20.021:20.020:13.584.2
25Joel ButlerLord Botetourt · SOFinish 21:31.021:31.020:23.980.7
26Rhodes AaronRoanoke Catholic School · SOFinish 21:34.121:34.120:26.879.8
27Lucas CarswellLord Botetourt · SOFinish 21:34.221:34.220:27.079.7
28Archer LeeLord Botetourt · FRFinish 21:35.021:35.020:27.779.5
29John MoughrabiLord Botetourt · SOFinish 21:35.321:35.320:28.079.4
30Reid WorkmanSouthwest Virginia Academy · SOFinish 21:37.721:37.720:30.278.6
31Yan Pablo Cano MoraleNorthside · SRFinish 21:37.821:37.820:30.478.6
32Zenon MalickPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · FRFinish 21:41.821:41.820:34.277.3
33Daniel Owen-O'QuillPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · JRFinish 21:42.021:42.020:34.477.2
34Aiden BaiNorth Cross School · FRFinish 21:43.621:43.620:35.976.7
35Griffin BreakellPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · SOFinish 21:45.121:45.120:37.276.3
36Graham DietrichLord Botetourt · JRFinish 21:51.721:51.720:43.574.2
37Wyatt MartinPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · SRFinish 21:53.021:53.020:44.873.8
38Carter HaasStaunton River · JRFinish 21:53.621:53.620:45.473.6
39Caleb MiaoNorth Cross School · FRFinish 22:03.522:03.520:54.870.4
40Garrett SuttonLord Botetourt · SRFinish 22:05.822:05.820:56.969.7
41Elias PayneSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 22:07.122:07.120:58.169.3
42Alan LamNorthside · JRFinish 22:10.322:10.321:01.268.3
43Cort WorkmanSouthwest Virginia Academy · SOFinish 22:10.522:10.521:01.468.2
44Zach PayneSouthwest Virginia Academy · JRFinish 22:12.622:12.621:03.467.6
45Nathaniel MooreLord Botetourt · SOFinish 22:13.422:13.421:04.167.3
46Aaron HancockStaunton River · SRFinish 23:02.423:02.421:50.651.8
47Riley SlusherWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 23:04.723:04.721:52.751.1
48Sam MohnsenSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 23:15.623:15.622:03.147.7
49Scott BonifaceSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 23:17.123:17.122:04.547.2
50Parker GautierPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · SOFinish 23:19.823:19.822:07.046.4
Show all 75 results (25 more)Showing all 75 results · hide rows 51–75
Boys results, rows 51 to 75 of 75
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Logan BurtnerStaunton River · FRFinish 23:23.923:23.922:11.045.0
52Noah HarrisWilliam Fleming · SRFinish 23:24.723:24.722:11.744.8
53Adam DonerWilliam Fleming · SOFinish 23:24.723:24.722:11.744.8
54Henry LightAuburn · SOFinish 23:27.423:27.422:14.343.9
55Cole JohnstonWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 23:33.423:33.422:19.942.1
56Sam SpearsSouthwest Virginia Academy · SOFinish 23:43.523:43.522:29.538.9
57Landon MillerAuburn · FRFinish 23:43.623:43.622:29.638.8
58Vincent LiuWilliam Byrd · SOFinish 23:45.923:45.922:31.838.1
59Chase GonzalesWilliam Byrd · JRFinish 23:55.923:55.922:41.334.9
60Jack PetersenWilliam Byrd · FRFinish 24:00.224:00.222:45.433.6
61Camden CrouseWilliam Fleming · SOFinish 24:34.024:34.023:17.422.9
62Jason GillespieStaunton River · JRFinish 25:10.325:10.323:51.811.4
63Kayvan DaughtyAltavista · FRFinish 25:17.325:17.323:58.49.2
64Sylar FarmerAltavista · JRFinish 25:33.725:33.724:14.04.0
65Jason DowdyAltavista · FRFinish 25:40.525:40.524:20.41.9
66Aidan BoucherRoanoke Catholic School · SRFinish 26:04.426:04.424:43.1—
67William Cano MoralesNorthside · SOFinish 26:27.126:27.125:04.7—
68Jonathan AmosStaunton River · FRFinish 26:31.226:31.225:08.5—
69Tayshaun DeaneWilliam Fleming · SOFinish 26:51.226:51.225:27.5—
70Dylan DeyerleRoanoke Catholic School · FRFinish 26:52.326:52.325:28.5—
71Warren WarnerAuburn · JRFinish 27:16.727:16.725:51.7—
72David ArthurAltavista · SOFinish 27:42.427:42.426:16.1—
73Marco Mendez-GironWilliam Fleming · SOFinish 28:26.128:26.126:57.5—
74Brenden HartungNorthside · SRFinish 28:32.928:32.927:03.9—
75Lucas StevensAltavista · FRFinish 43:16.143:16.141:01.2—

BOYS · JV · 5,000 M

JV Boys 5000 Meter Run

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D

14 of 14 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +64.1 s course and conditions +72.0 s in-season fitness −7.9 sCourse constant 517.97 (518)Race constant 517.23 (517)

Unavailable used anchors± 20.9 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 488.695Modeled distance 5,000 m

Boys results, places shown 1 to 14 of 14 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Jacob MalueLord Botetourt · SRFinish 22:02.822:02.820:47.073.0
2Will HancockPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · SOFinish 23:22.623:22.622:02.248.0
3Ashby BobbittStaunton River · FRFinish 23:36.023:36.022:14.943.7
4Sam BullingtonPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · FRFinish 23:50.723:50.722:28.739.1
5Anson HagerStaunton River · 8Finish 23:58.223:58.222:35.836.8
6Cohen FolksLord Botetourt · FRFinish 24:01.124:01.122:38.535.9
7Brayden BurnsLord Botetourt · SRFinish 24:24.224:24.223:00.328.6
8Lachlan ThompsonPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · SOFinish 25:22.325:22.323:55.010.4
9Max WeissPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · FRFinish 27:08.327:08.325:35.0—
10Mason TuckLord Botetourt · FRFinish 27:27.027:27.025:52.6—
11Gideon ShifferSouthwest Virginia Academy · JRFinish 28:49.828:49.827:10.7—
12Elijah BradleySouthwest Virginia Academy · SOFinish 32:30.632:30.630:38.8—
13Connor Barrios-MartinPatrick Henry (Roanoke) · SOFinish 32:32.432:32.430:40.4—
14Micah ShifferSouthwest Virginia Academy · FRFinish 33:21.733:21.731:26.9—

blue ridge invitational 2024, Oct 5, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.