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Oct 19, 2022 · Charlotte Court House, VA

James River District Championship

Randolph-Henry Cross Country Course · Historical 2022 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Boys 5000 Meter Run

D

32 of 32 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −30.5 s course and conditions −8.1 s in-season fitness −22.5 sCourse constant 488.86 (489)Race constant 484.75 (485)

23 used anchors± 13.2 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.973Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 23 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 23, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Jerry Hamilton · Nottoway: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  2. 2 Jalen Medley · Amelia County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  3. 3 Jaime Perez-Cruz · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  4. 4 Caleb Kline · Amelia County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  5. 5 David Terrones-Lara · Randolph-Henry: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  6. 7 Braedon Goolsby · Buckingham County: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  7. 9 Isaiah Leonard · Prince Edward County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  8. 11 Austin Henderson · Amelia County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  9. 12 Jefferson Duffey · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  10. 14 Charlie Critzer · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  11. 17 Tine Sledd · Nottoway: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  12. 18 Thomas Graves · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  13. 19 Jeremiah Bates · Prince Edward County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  14. 20 Zeke Barton · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  15. 21 Dawson Dunnavant · Amelia County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  16. 22 John Mitchell · Cumberland: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2) · Southside XC Invitational (Aug 24)
  17. 23 Tobias Donnell · Nottoway: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  18. 24 Kevin Marion · Prince Edward: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  19. 25 Joel Jackson · Nottoway: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  20. 26 Cameron Cheatham · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  21. 28 Joshua Hunter · Amelia County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  22. 29 Alexander Gonzalez-Hernandez · Cumberland: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  23. 31 Daniel Coghill · Nottoway: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 32 of 32 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Jerry HamiltonNottoway · SRFinish 18:31.018:31.018:44.4115.2
2Jalen MedleyAmelia County · SRFinish 18:51.018:51.019:04.6108.4
3Jaime Perez-CruzRandolph-Henry · SOFinish 19:19.019:19.019:32.999.0
4Caleb KlineAmelia County · JRFinish 19:31.019:31.019:45.194.9
5David Terrones-LaraRandolph-Henry · SOFinish 20:03.020:03.020:17.584.2
6Joshua GoodmanBuckingham County · SRFinish 20:18.020:18.020:32.679.1
7Braedon GoolsbyBuckingham County · FRFinish 20:24.020:24.020:38.777.1
8Luke SayerBuckingham County · JRFinish 20:30.020:30.020:44.875.0
9Isaiah LeonardPrince Edward County · JRFinish 20:36.020:36.020:50.973.0
10Tyler SelzerBuckingham County · JRFinish 20:39.020:39.020:53.972.0
11Austin HendersonAmelia County · SOFinish 20:40.020:40.020:54.971.7
12Jefferson DuffeyRandolph-Henry · SRFinish 20:56.020:56.021:11.166.3
13Trashaun NelsonBuckingham County · SOFinish 21:02.021:02.021:17.264.2
14Charlie CritzerRandolph-Henry · FRFinish 21:21.021:21.021:36.457.8
15Alex BoylesBuckingham County · JRFinish 21:27.021:27.021:42.555.8
16Ben DorrierBuckingham County · JRFinish 21:42.021:42.021:57.750.8
17Tine SleddNottoway · FRFinish 21:47.021:47.022:02.749.1
18Thomas GravesRandolph-Henry · SOFinish 21:56.021:56.022:11.846.0
19Jeremiah BatesPrince Edward County · SRFinish 22:37.022:37.022:53.332.2
20Zeke BartonRandolph-Henry · FRFinish 22:55.022:55.023:11.526.1
21Dawson DunnavantAmelia County · FRFinish 22:56.022:56.023:12.525.8
22John MitchellCumberland · SOFinish 23:02.023:02.023:18.623.8
23Tobias DonnellNottoway · FRFinish 23:10.023:10.023:26.721.1
24Kevin MarionPrince Edward · SRFinish 23:25.223:25.223:42.115.9
25Joel JacksonNottoway · SRFinish 23:25.723:25.723:42.615.8
26Cameron CheathamRandolph-Henry · SRFinish 23:34.023:34.023:51.013.0
27Marcus BordeauxAmelia County · SRFinish 24:16.024:16.024:33.5—
28Joshua HunterAmelia County · FRFinish 24:36.024:36.024:53.7—
29Alexander Gonzalez-HernandezCumberland · 8Finish 25:15.025:15.025:33.2—
30Coyt WalshAmelia County · FRFinish 26:40.026:40.026:59.2—
31Daniel CoghillNottoway · SOFinish 26:44.026:44.027:03.3—
32Jamarion CrawleyPrince Edward · JRFinish 32:23.032:23.032:46.4—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run

C

34 of 34 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −10.9 s course and conditions +12.7 s in-season fitness −23.6 sCourse constant 499.08 (499)Race constant 495.64 (496)

24 used anchors± 11.9 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 24 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 24, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Sylvia Hemmer · Prince Edward County High School: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  2. 2 Hayden Talbott · Buckingham County: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  3. 5 Emily Tharpe · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  4. 6 Misha Clark · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  5. 7 Isabella Thompson · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  6. 8 Darby Schlottere · Amelia County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  7. 11 LaKyra Bartee · Cumberland High School: Southside XC Invitational (Aug 24)
  8. 13 Laila Jones · Prince Edward County High School: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  9. 14 Abigail Dixon · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  10. 17 Kimberly Baker · Cumberland: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2) · and 1 more
  11. 18 Nalonda Henderson · Cumberland: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2) · Southside XC Invitational (Aug 24)
  12. 19 Christina Jones · Cumberland: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2) · and 1 more
  13. 20 Makayla Nelson · Prince Edward County High School: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  14. 21 Emily Lavecchia · Amelia County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  15. 22 Alana Medley · Amelia County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  16. 23 Valerie Soto · Amelia County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  17. 25 Nancy Tomas-Castro · Nottoway: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  18. 27 Kayla Killabrew · Prince Edward County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  19. 28 Taylor Hughes · Cumberland High School: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  20. 29 Lillian Ellis · Prince Edward County High School: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  21. 30 Zoey Walker · Randolph-Henry: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  22. 32 Lilliam Thirion · Amelia County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  23. 33 Dejanira Pearl · Prince Edward County High School: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  24. 34 Ally Garret · Amelia County: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 34 of 34 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Sylvia HemmerPrince Edward County High School · JRFinish 22:41.022:41.022:33.541.3
2Hayden TalbottBuckingham County · SRFinish 23:04.023:04.022:56.433.7
3Chasity HernandezBuckingham County · SOFinish 24:20.024:20.024:12.08.5
4NaKyra BarteeCumberland High School · SRFinish 24:52.024:52.024:43.8—
5Emily TharpeRandolph-Henry · JRFinish 25:25.025:25.025:16.6—
6Misha ClarkRandolph-Henry · SRFinish 25:31.025:31.025:22.6—
7Isabella ThompsonRandolph-Henry · FRFinish 25:39.025:39.025:30.5—
8Darby SchlottereAmelia County · FRFinish 25:55.025:55.025:46.4—
9Delaney PeinsBuckingham County · FRFinish 26:05.026:05.025:56.4—
10Ayanna ChambersBuckingham County · SOFinish 26:09.026:09.026:00.4—
11LaKyra BarteeCumberland High School · SRFinish 26:47.026:47.026:38.1—
12Lindsey TobiasBuckingham County · FRFinish 26:49.026:49.026:40.1—
13Laila JonesPrince Edward County High School · SRFinish 27:38.027:38.027:28.9—
14Abigail DixonRandolph-Henry · JRFinish 27:42.027:42.027:32.8—
15Logan RaglandBuckingham County · SOFinish 28:17.028:17.028:07.6—
16Caroline BrowningBuckingham County · SOFinish 28:32.028:32.028:22.6—
17Kimberly BakerCumberland · SRFinish 28:47.028:47.028:37.5—
18Nalonda HendersonCumberland · SRFinish 28:53.028:53.028:43.4—
19Christina JonesCumberland · SRFinish 29:17.029:17.029:07.3—
20Makayla NelsonPrince Edward County High School · JRFinish 29:30.029:30.029:20.2—
21Emily LavecchiaAmelia County · SRFinish 29:50.029:50.029:40.1—
22Alana MedleyAmelia County · SRFinish 30:07.030:07.029:57.0—
23Valerie SotoAmelia County · SOFinish 30:29.030:29.030:18.9—
24Karley CoxNottoway · FRFinish 31:30.031:30.031:19.6—
25Nancy Tomas-CastroNottoway · JRFinish 31:36.031:36.031:25.5—
26Layla EdmondsPrince Edward County High School · JRFinish 31:37.031:37.031:26.5—
27Kayla KillabrewPrince Edward County · FRFinish 32:14.032:14.032:03.3—
28Taylor HughesCumberland High School · SRFinish 32:53.032:53.032:42.1—
29Lillian EllisPrince Edward County High School · SOFinish 33:13.033:13.033:02.0—
30Zoey WalkerRandolph-Henry · SOFinish 33:19.033:19.033:08.0—
31Olivia ColemanAmelia County · SRFinish 33:56.033:56.033:44.8—
32Lilliam ThirionAmelia County · SOFinish 34:20.034:20.034:08.6—
33Dejanira PearlPrince Edward County High School · JRFinish 35:57.035:57.035:45.1—
34Ally GarretAmelia County · SRFinish 37:27.037:27.037:14.6—
Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.