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Oct 19, 2022 · Windsor, VA

Tri-Rivers District XC Championship

Windsor HS Track · Historical 2022 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Boys 5k Run Finals

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D

25 of 25 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −74.8 s course and conditions −53.2 s in-season fitness −21.6 sCourse constant 472.01 (472)Race constant 467.85 (468)

19 used anchors± 21.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.973Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 19 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 19, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Dane Magette · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  2. 2 Samuel Harrison · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  3. 4 Payton Goetz · Windsor: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  4. 5 Ethan Brinkley · Windsor: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  5. 6 Cameron Jenkins · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  6. 7 Lloyd Carter Jr. · Greensville: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  7. 8 Caden Pierce · Windsor: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  8. 9 Pheno Glover · Franklin: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  9. 10 Daniel Padilla · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  10. 11 Ben Harrison · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  11. 13 Brayden Pittman · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  12. 14 Salvatore Colao · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  13. 15 Cahjmeir Williams · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  14. 16 Caleb Dily · Windsor: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  15. 17 Greyson Davis · Windsor: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  16. 18 Carlos Gonzalez · Windsor: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  17. 19 Jordan Johnson · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  18. 20 Tyshon Leonard · Windsor: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  19. 23 Ryan Schaefer · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 25 of 25 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Dane MagetteSouthampton · SRFinish 17:53.417:53.418:49.0113.6
2Samuel HarrisonFranklin · JRFinish 18:30.918:30.919:28.5100.5
3Gage XinosSouthampton · SRFinish 18:41.218:41.219:39.396.9
4Payton GoetzWindsor · JRFinish 19:05.319:05.320:04.788.4
5Ethan BrinkleyWindsor · FRFinish 19:53.919:53.920:55.871.4
6Cameron JenkinsSouthampton · SRFinish 19:54.219:54.220:56.171.3
7Lloyd Carter Jr.Greensville · JRFinish 19:56.719:56.720:58.770.4
8Caden PierceWindsor · SOFinish 20:07.820:07.821:10.466.5
9Pheno GloverFranklin · JRFinish 20:50.420:50.421:55.251.6
10Daniel PadillaSouthampton · SRFinish 21:00.221:00.222:05.648.1
11Ben HarrisonFranklin · FRFinish 21:02.621:02.622:08.147.3
12Spencer MullinAppomattox Regional · Grade not recordedFinish 21:07.921:07.922:13.645.4
13Brayden PittmanSouthampton · SRFinish 21:20.621:20.622:27.041.0
14Salvatore ColaoFranklin · SRFinish 22:24.322:24.323:33.918.7
15Cahjmeir WilliamsFranklin · JRFinish 22:40.122:40.123:50.613.1
16Caleb DilyWindsor · SRFinish 22:40.422:40.423:50.913.0
17Greyson DavisWindsor · SOFinish 22:48.922:48.923:59.810.0
18Carlos GonzalezWindsor · SRFinish 25:23.225:23.226:42.2—
19Jordan JohnsonFranklin · SRFinish 27:49.727:49.729:16.2—
20Tyshon LeonardWindsor · JRFinish 28:18.928:18.929:47.0—
21Andy ThomasFranklin · FRFinish 28:57.128:57.130:27.1—
22Nick De La CruzWindsor · 8Finish 29:30.029:30.031:01.7—
23Ryan SchaeferSouthampton · Grade not recordedFinish 29:40.129:40.131:12.3—
24Aidan PowersWindsor · FRFinish 32:24.532:24.534:05.3—
25Mason HopkinsWindsor · Grade not recordedFinish 36:37.836:37.838:31.7—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls 5k Run Finals

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C

24 of 24 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −74.4 s course and conditions −52.0 s in-season fitness −22.4 sCourse constant 463.96 (464)Race constant 460.02 (460)

17 used anchors± 9.7 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 17 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 17, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Savannah Hill · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  2. 2 Chevelle Joyner · Windsor: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  3. 3 Chloe Griffin · Windsor: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  4. 4 Nishay Rapach · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  5. 5 Mikki Alexander · Windsor: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  6. 6 Rebekah Bury · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  7. 7 Gabriela Quiroz · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  8. 8 Giorgia Lombardi · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  9. 9 Alexis Manila · Appomattox Regional: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  10. 11 Caitlin Irvin · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  11. 12 Harley Harcum · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  12. 14 Zariah Mitchell · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  13. 15 Layla Battle · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  14. 17 Cate Richard · Windsor: VHSL 2A - Region A Championship (Nov 2)
  15. 20 Alanna Boone · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  16. 22 Abby Felts · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
  17. 23 Kahlissah Burnham · Franklin: VHSL Group 1A Region B Championships (Nov 2)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 24 of 24 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Savannah HillSouthampton · JRFinish 21:28.521:28.522:33.641.3
2Chevelle JoynerWindsor · JRFinish 23:05.823:05.824:15.97.2
3Chloe GriffinWindsor · SRFinish 25:02.725:02.726:18.6—
4Nishay RapachFranklin · FRFinish 26:20.626:20.627:40.4—
5Mikki AlexanderWindsor · JRFinish 26:44.726:44.728:05.8—
6Rebekah BurySouthampton · SOFinish 27:32.527:32.528:56.0—
7Gabriela QuirozSouthampton · FRFinish 27:32.527:32.528:56.1—
8Giorgia LombardiSouthampton · JRFinish 27:59.027:59.029:23.8—
9Alexis ManilaAppomattox Regional · Grade not recordedFinish 28:22.528:22.529:48.5—
10Emma IrvineSouthampton · SRFinish 28:26.728:26.729:52.9—
11Caitlin IrvinSouthampton · JRFinish 28:27.328:27.329:53.6—
12Harley HarcumSouthampton · SOFinish 31:44.431:44.433:20.7—
13Aushari BarnesFranklin · SRFinish 32:27.032:27.034:05.4—
14Zariah MitchellFranklin · FRFinish 32:30.132:30.134:08.7—
15Layla BattleFranklin · SRFinish 32:30.432:30.434:09.0—
16Lily ZimmerSouthampton · Grade not recordedFinish 32:36.632:36.634:15.4—
17Cate RichardWindsor · SOFinish 33:18.833:18.834:59.9—
18Savanna LoveallSouthampton · Grade not recordedFinish 34:25.934:25.936:10.3—
19Karmisha IveySouthampton · JRFinish 34:50.434:50.436:36.0—
20Alanna BooneFranklin · JRFinish 34:57.534:57.536:43.5—
21Madison CoursonSouthampton · SRFinish 35:26.935:26.937:14.4—
22Abby FeltsFranklin · FRFinish 36:09.936:09.937:59.6—
23Kahlissah BurnhamFranklin · FRFinish 37:39.637:39.639:33.8—
24Aleysia BurnellSouthampton · SRFinish 38:00.038:00.039:55.2—

Tri-Rivers District XC Championship, Oct 19, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.