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Nov 2, 2022 · Chesapeake, VA

VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship

Bells Mill Park · Historical 2022 results

Other years: 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Boys 5k Run Finals

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C

51 of 51 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −23.1 s course and conditions −0.5 s in-season fitness −22.6 sCourse constant 491.64 (492)Race constant 487.78 (488)

37 used anchors± 11.7 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.973Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 37 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 37, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Isaac Lamprecht · New Kent: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Justin Zetterwall · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  3. 3 Joshua Way · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Davin Tietz · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  5. 5 Braden Lee · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  6. 6 A.J. Koval · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Connor Wick · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Micah Leech · York: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  9. 9 Will Ashley · New Kent: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  10. 10 John Contrucci · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  11. 11 James Roberts · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Dane Magette · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  13. 13 Ryan Wright · New Kent: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  14. 14 Tyler Quick · York: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25)
  15. 15 Andrew Rutherford · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Johnathan Nemec · York: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Quentin Trowbridge · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  18. 18 Kaden Emley · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  19. 19 Jackson Gray · York: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  20. 20 Luke Holloway · New Kent: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  21. 21 Michael Herath · York: Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  22. 22 Drew Ryan · Tabb: Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  23. 23 Jeremiah Grant · York: Bay River District Championship (Oct 25)
  24. 24 Henry Gemerek · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  25. 25 Joseph Helton · Lafayette: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  26. 27 Luis Macia Fernandez DeBabadilla · New Kent: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  27. 28 Josh Mills-Hall · New Kent: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  28. 30 DeMonte Peterson · I.C. Norcom: Eastern District XC Championship Meet (Oct 19)
  29. 31 Cameron Jenkins · Southampton: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  30. 32 Logan Rooks · New Kent: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  31. 33 Jonathan Holton · Lakeland: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  32. 34 Aedan Thompson · York: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  33. 38 Aden Aguinaldo · I.C. Norcom: Eastern District XC Championship Meet (Oct 19)
  34. 41 Zaire Swaby · Lakeland: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  35. 45 Brayden Pittman · Southampton: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  36. 48 Daniel Padilla · Southampton: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  37. 51 Ryan Schaefer · Southampton: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 50 of 51 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Isaac LamprechtNew Kent · JRFinish 16:33.616:33.616:39.3156.9
2Justin ZetterwallTabb · SRFinish 17:05.417:05.417:11.2146.2
3Joshua WayTabb · SRFinish 17:13.617:13.617:19.4143.5
4Davin TietzTabb · JRFinish 17:18.517:18.517:24.3141.9
5Braden LeeLafayette · JRFinish 17:24.217:24.217:30.1139.9
6A.J. KovalLafayette · SOFinish 17:34.117:34.117:40.0136.6
7Connor WickTabb · FRFinish 17:51.217:51.217:57.3130.9
8Micah LeechYork · SRFinish 17:53.617:53.617:59.7130.1
9Will AshleyNew Kent · JRFinish 17:53.817:53.817:59.8130.0
10John ContrucciLafayette · SRFinish 18:05.818:05.818:12.0126.0
11James RobertsTabb · FRFinish 18:11.018:11.018:17.2124.2
12Dane MagetteSouthampton · SRFinish 18:13.418:13.418:19.6123.4
13Ryan WrightNew Kent · SOFinish 18:15.118:15.118:21.3122.9
14Tyler QuickYork · SRFinish 18:20.818:20.818:27.0121.0
15Andrew RutherfordLafayette · SOFinish 18:23.818:23.818:30.1119.9
16Johnathan NemecYork · FRFinish 18:24.618:24.618:30.9119.7
17Quentin TrowbridgeLafayette · SOFinish 18:26.818:26.818:33.0119.0
18Kaden EmleyTabb · SRFinish 18:33.018:33.018:39.3116.9
19Jackson GrayYork · JRFinish 18:36.518:36.518:42.8115.7
20Luke HollowayNew Kent · SOFinish 18:41.118:41.118:47.5114.2
21Michael HerathYork · SOFinish 18:43.118:43.118:49.4113.5
22Drew RyanTabb · JRFinish 18:45.018:45.018:51.3112.9
23Jeremiah GrantYork · JRFinish 18:50.818:50.818:57.1110.9
24Henry GemerekLafayette · JRFinish 19:03.619:03.619:10.1106.6
25Joseph HeltonLafayette · SRFinish 19:20.319:20.319:26.9101.0
26Brayden PowellColonial Heights · FRFinish 19:22.619:22.619:29.2100.3
27Luis Macia Fernandez DeBabadillaNew Kent · JRFinish 19:43.119:43.119:49.893.4
28Josh Mills-HallNew Kent · JRFinish 19:43.319:43.319:50.093.3
29Lucas SprinkleColonial Heights · FRFinish 19:43.619:43.619:50.393.2
30DeMonte PetersonI.C. Norcom · SOFinish 19:58.719:58.720:05.588.1
31Cameron JenkinsSouthampton · SRFinish 20:08.620:08.620:15.484.8
32Logan RooksNew Kent · JRFinish 20:27.820:27.820:34.878.4
33Jonathan HoltonLakeland · Grade not recordedFinish 20:36.920:36.920:43.975.3
34Aedan ThompsonYork · SRFinish 20:43.920:43.920:50.973.0
35Dawson MoodyColonial Heights · JRFinish 21:21.421:21.421:28.660.4
36Jacob WilliamsPhoebus · SRFinish 21:38.121:38.121:45.454.8
37Marcos Torales-MontesPetersburg · JRFinish 21:42.821:42.821:50.253.2
38Aden AguinaldoI.C. Norcom · SRFinish 22:03.622:03.622:11.146.3
39Omari ThomasPetersburg · SRFinish 22:09.222:09.222:16.744.4
40Jordan CutterI.C. Norcom · JRFinish 22:18.122:18.122:25.741.4
41Zaire SwabyLakeland · SRFinish 22:25.822:25.822:33.438.8
42Ke’sean SpratleyPetersburg · Grade not recordedFinish 22:56.022:56.023:03.828.7
43Axel Ponce AlonsoColonial Heights · JRFinish 23:05.523:05.523:13.425.5
44Anthony StewartLakeland · SRFinish 23:10.023:10.023:17.824.0
45Brayden PittmanSouthampton · SRFinish 23:41.823:41.823:49.813.4
46Carson YoungColonial Heights · JRFinish 24:01.224:01.224:09.46.8
47Julian WalkerColonial Heights · FRFinish 24:43.224:43.224:51.6—
48Daniel PadillaSouthampton · SRFinish 25:21.525:21.525:30.1—
49Carter BrandtColonial Heights · FRFinish 25:24.825:24.825:33.4—
50Amari LeePetersburg · SOFinish 25:26.625:26.625:35.2—
Show all 51 results (1 more)Showing all 51 results · hide rows 51–51
Boys results, rows 51 to 51 of 51
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Ryan SchaeferSouthampton · SOFinish 30:02.630:02.630:12.8—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls 5k Run Finals

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C

47 of 47 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −14.4 s course and conditions +9.2 s in-season fitness −23.6 sCourse constant 497.05 (497)Race constant 493.84 (494)

35 used anchors± 6.1 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 35 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 35, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Lauren Pegher · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  2. 2 Kendall Ackerman · Colonial Heights: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  3. 3 Grace Katzer · York: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Isabella Ornelas · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  5. 5 Catherine Alderson · Colonial Heights: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  6. 6 Evelyn Rice · York: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25)
  7. 7 Madison Johnson · New Kent: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Delaney Cox · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Sophia Byrne · York: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Anna Larsen · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25)
  11. 11 Ava Beaulieu · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Savannah Hill · Southampton: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  13. 13 Alex Parkes · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  14. 14 Joie Cooke · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  15. 15 Gabrielle Butler · New Kent: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  16. 17 Valentina Martiniello · Lafayette: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  17. 18 Julia Good · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  18. 19 Campbell Proffitt · New Kent: Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  19. 20 Kaylee Burton · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  20. 21 Danielle Hollington · York: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  21. 23 Rachel Holland · Lakeland: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  22. 24 Brooke Swarringim · New Kent: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  23. 26 Serra Swartout · New Kent: Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  24. 27 Lauren Walker · New Kent: Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  25. 28 Olivia Prestyly · Lafayette: Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  26. 29 Mackenzie Nelson · York: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  27. 30 Hailey Lindsay · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  28. 32 Ella Brown · Tabb: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  29. 35 Gabriela Quiroz · Southampton: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  30. 36 Eliza Jones · York: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  31. 38 Rebekah Bury · Southampton: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  32. 39 Giorgia Lombardi · Southampton: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  33. 42 Caitlin Irvin · Southampton: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
  34. 43 Delilah Doolittle · New Kent: Bay River District Championship (Oct 25) · 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  35. 46 Harley Harcum · Southampton: Tri-Rivers District XC Championship (Oct 19)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 47 of 47 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Lauren PegherTabb · JRFinish 19:42.719:42.719:39.699.3
2Kendall AckermanColonial Heights · JRFinish 20:17.420:17.420:14.287.7
3Grace KatzerYork · JRFinish 20:35.020:35.020:31.881.9
4Isabella OrnelasTabb · JRFinish 20:45.920:45.920:42.778.2
5Catherine AldersonColonial Heights · JRFinish 21:01.721:01.720:58.473.0
6Evelyn RiceYork · SOFinish 21:07.321:07.321:04.071.1
7Madison JohnsonNew Kent · SOFinish 21:29.721:29.721:26.463.7
8Delaney CoxLafayette · SRFinish 21:53.821:53.821:50.455.7
9Sophia ByrneYork · Grade not recordedFinish 22:29.222:29.222:25.743.9
10Anna LarsenLafayette · FRFinish 22:43.522:43.522:39.939.2
11Ava BeaulieuTabb · SOFinish 23:09.123:09.123:05.530.6
12Savannah HillSouthampton · JRFinish 23:14.023:14.023:10.429.0
13Alex ParkesLafayette · FRFinish 23:15.823:15.823:12.228.4
14Joie CookeLafayette · FRFinish 23:41.123:41.123:37.420.0
15Gabrielle ButlerNew Kent · SOFinish 24:03.124:03.123:59.412.7
16Serron DegruyPhoebus · FRFinish 24:26.424:26.424:22.64.9
17Valentina MartinielloLafayette · SOFinish 24:44.424:44.424:40.6—
18Julia GoodTabb · JRFinish 25:08.825:08.825:04.8—
19Campbell ProffittNew Kent · SRFinish 25:12.625:12.625:08.6—
20Kaylee BurtonTabb · SRFinish 25:39.725:39.725:35.7—
21Danielle HollingtonYork · SOFinish 25:58.225:58.225:54.1—
22Gabrielle DavisLakeland · FRFinish 26:22.926:22.926:18.8—
23Rachel HollandLakeland · SRFinish 26:27.326:27.326:23.2—
24Brooke SwarringimNew Kent · SRFinish 26:31.926:31.926:27.7—
25Loreida Jennings-WardLakeland · FRFinish 26:38.126:38.126:34.0—
26Serra SwartoutNew Kent · SRFinish 26:49.226:49.226:45.0—
27Lauren WalkerNew Kent · JRFinish 27:00.027:00.026:55.8—
28Olivia PrestylyLafayette · JRFinish 27:06.427:06.427:02.2—
29Mackenzie NelsonYork · JRFinish 27:07.827:07.827:03.6—
30Hailey LindsayTabb · JRFinish 27:11.427:11.427:07.2—
31Anya BurchamLafayette · FRFinish 27:28.727:28.727:24.4—
32Ella BrownTabb · JRFinish 27:45.827:45.827:41.5—
33Nassara KolorColonial Heights · FRFinish 27:55.627:55.627:51.2—
34Amari SimmonsPetersburg · JRFinish 27:56.127:56.127:51.8—
35Gabriela QuirozSouthampton · FRFinish 28:09.928:09.928:05.5—
36Eliza JonesYork · JRFinish 28:24.828:24.828:20.4—
37Paris BaldwinColonial Heights · SRFinish 28:29.528:29.528:25.0—
38Rebekah BurySouthampton · SOFinish 28:41.628:41.628:37.1—
39Giorgia LombardiSouthampton · JRFinish 29:00.229:00.228:55.7—
40Caitlyn BahnColonial Heights · FRFinish 29:13.129:13.129:08.6—
41Alima BryantColonial Heights · JRFinish 29:21.629:21.629:17.1—
42Caitlin IrvinSouthampton · JRFinish 29:32.729:32.729:28.1—
43Delilah DoolittleNew Kent · FRFinish 29:45.029:45.029:40.4—
44Abigail AdamsLakeland · JRFinish 30:26.630:26.630:21.8—
45Katrina MercerPetersburg · SRFinish 31:04.431:04.430:59.6—
46Harley HarcumSouthampton · SOFinish 33:12.833:12.833:07.6—
47Avirena JacksonPetersburg · JRFinish 34:32.834:32.834:27.4—

VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship, Nov 2, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.