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Oct 19, 2022 · Portsmouth, VA

Eastern District XC Championship Meet

Churchland HS XC Course · Historical 2022 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Event 1 Boys 5k Run CC

D

71 of 71 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −90.5 s course and conditions −69.2 s in-season fitness −21.3 sCourse constant 466.17 (466)Race constant 462.01 (462)

29 used anchors± 13.0 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.973Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 29 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 29, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Cameron Sadr · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  2. 2 Henry Sol · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  3. 3 Graham Johnson · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  4. 4 Mateo Canga · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  5. 5 Matthew McCullough · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  6. 6 Christopher Guillen-Chacon · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  7. 7 Frithjof Ohlrogge · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  8. 8 Carlos Mendoza · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  9. 9 Jake Burnette · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  10. 10 Carver Dean · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  11. 11 Gabriel Kinnison · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  12. 12 Noah Fournier · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  13. 13 Dylan Carter · Norview: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  14. 15 Yosif Rowell · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  15. 16 Lincoln Sama · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  16. 17 Diego Avila · Maury: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  17. 18 Nicholas Davis · Churchland: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  18. 19 Gabriel Malone · Granby: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  19. 20 Torrey Walters · Churchland: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  20. 22 DeMonte Peterson · I.C. Norcom: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  21. 25 Javier St. Remy · Maury: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  22. 27 Noah Schranz · Granby: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  23. 37 Jeremiah House · Churchland: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  24. 38 Aden Aguinaldo · I.C. Norcom: VHSL Class 3 Region A Cross Country Championship (Nov 2)
  25. 39 Isaiah Tonkollie · Churchland: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  26. 51 Andrew Gilmore · Granby: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  27. 54 Lamonte' Henderson · Manor: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  28. 57 Wesley Bias-Saunders · Manor: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  29. 62 Christian Dunbar · Granby: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 50 of 71 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Cameron SadrMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 16:20.016:20.017:25.4141.5
2Henry SolGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 16:50.016:50.017:57.4130.8
3Graham JohnsonGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 16:56.716:56.718:04.6128.4
4Mateo CangaMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 16:57.216:57.218:05.1128.3
5Matthew McCulloughMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 17:09.617:09.618:18.3123.9
6Christopher Guillen-ChaconGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 17:09.717:09.718:18.4123.8
7Frithjof OhlroggeGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 17:15.817:15.818:24.9121.7
8Carlos MendozaGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 17:25.217:25.218:35.0118.3
9Jake BurnetteMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 17:31.417:31.418:41.6116.1
10Carver DeanGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 17:45.817:45.818:57.0111.0
11Gabriel KinnisonMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 17:46.217:46.218:57.4110.9
12Noah FournierGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 17:47.817:47.818:59.1110.3
13Dylan CarterNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 17:49.017:49.019:00.4109.8
14Ian ShawMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 18:04.318:04.319:16.7104.4
15Yosif RowellMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 18:17.818:17.819:31.199.6
16Lincoln SamaMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 18:20.318:20.319:33.898.7
17Diego AvilaMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 18:22.818:22.819:36.597.8
18Nicholas DavisChurchland · Grade not recordedFinish 18:34.518:34.519:48.993.7
19Gabriel MaloneGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 18:36.018:36.019:50.593.1
20Torrey WaltersChurchland · Grade not recordedFinish 18:39.918:39.919:54.691.8
21John FeltsMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 19:00.719:00.720:16.984.4
22DeMonte PetersonI.C. Norcom · Grade not recordedFinish 19:03.619:03.620:20.083.3
23Ethan HicksManor · Grade not recordedFinish 19:14.019:14.020:31.079.6
24Riley WaltersChurchland · Grade not recordedFinish 19:18.719:18.720:36.078.0
25Javier St. RemyMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 19:25.219:25.220:43.075.6
26Andrew NottinghamMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 19:28.419:28.420:46.474.5
27Noah SchranzGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 19:33.119:33.120:51.472.8
28Miles MiskillGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 19:39.119:39.120:57.970.7
29T Roy MartinGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 19:39.519:39.520:58.270.6
30Keamari McQueenMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 19:40.019:40.020:58.870.4
31Aiden HillMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 19:40.919:40.920:59.870.0
32Marshall HowellMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 20:16.020:16.021:37.157.6
33Colin MosesMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 20:19.020:19.021:40.456.5
34Gavin FarnsworthNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 20:36.220:36.221:58.750.4
35Michael AdjeiNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 20:42.920:42.922:05.848.0
36Steven CorderoNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 20:56.420:56.422:20.243.2
37Jeremiah HouseChurchland · Grade not recordedFinish 20:58.820:58.822:22.842.4
38Aden AguinaldoI.C. Norcom · Grade not recordedFinish 21:19.521:19.522:44.935.0
39Isaiah TonkollieChurchland · Grade not recordedFinish 21:24.721:24.722:50.433.2
40Prince SmithChurchland · Grade not recordedFinish 21:35.021:35.023:01.429.5
41Jacob HodgesGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 21:38.621:38.623:05.328.2
42Jahquan HawkinsNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 21:49.421:49.423:16.824.4
43Summit FarnsworthMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 21:52.521:52.523:20.123.3
44Jose BonillaNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 22:05.822:05.823:34.318.5
45Lee CastilloNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 22:05.922:05.923:34.418.5
46Camden LilleyManor · Grade not recordedFinish 22:07.022:07.023:35.618.1
47Roger ZhengGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 22:13.722:13.723:42.715.7
48Carlos MenendezManor · Grade not recordedFinish 22:15.322:15.323:44.515.2
49Amir HatfieldNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 22:36.722:36.724:07.37.5
50Abishek MugunthanGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 22:38.922:38.924:09.76.8
Show all 71 results (21 more)Showing all 71 results · hide rows 51–71
Boys results, rows 51 to 71 of 71
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Andrew GilmoreGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 22:52.622:52.624:24.31.9
52Yaseen AbdousMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 23:00.023:00.024:32.1—
53Luis DuarteGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 23:00.823:00.824:33.0—
54Lamonte' HendersonManor · Grade not recordedFinish 23:08.023:08.024:40.7—
55Kai BaldMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 23:19.723:19.724:53.1—
56Luke McNabbMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 23:20.023:20.024:53.5—
57Wesley Bias-SaundersManor · Grade not recordedFinish 23:21.123:21.124:54.6—
58Vince CorpuzNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 23:33.323:33.325:07.6—
59Jaxon SykesManor · Grade not recordedFinish 23:51.223:51.225:26.8—
60Lucas CousinsNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 24:28.324:28.326:06.3—
61Jason FritzMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 24:29.324:29.326:07.4—
62Christian DunbarGranby · Grade not recordedFinish 24:58.924:58.926:38.9—
63Justin HalesManor · Grade not recordedFinish 25:40.725:40.727:23.6—
64D'Marco BrownManor · Grade not recordedFinish 25:42.125:42.127:25.0—
65Phillip MasonNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 25:47.625:47.627:30.9—
66Caleb WarrenChurchland · Grade not recordedFinish 26:04.626:04.627:49.1—
67Cameron MorrisManor · Grade not recordedFinish 26:53.526:53.528:41.2—
68Armand BraswellNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 26:59.926:59.928:48.1—
69Kristian NunleyNorview · Grade not recordedFinish 28:19.528:19.530:12.9—
70Richard SunMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 29:35.829:35.831:34.3—
71Illari AnteroMaury · Grade not recordedFinish 35:40.235:40.238:03.1—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Results Girls 5000 Meter Run

C

37 of 37 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −95.1 s course and conditions −73.1 s in-season fitness −22.0 sCourse constant 459.89 (460)Race constant 456.59 (457)

19 used anchors± 10.4 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 19 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 19, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 2 Hallie McMurdie · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  2. 3 Sophia Sadr · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  3. 4 Ariana Rivera · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  4. 5 Ella Gilmore · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  5. 6 Mary Ella Wynne · Maury: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  6. 7 Julie Poffenbarger · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  7. 8 Addison Felts · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  8. 9 Laurel Caddell · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  9. 10 Cora Cowan · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  10. 12 Elizabeth Dixon · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  11. 15 Madelyn Cooper · Granby: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  12. 16 Melody Merritt · Manor: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  13. 20 Sonya Adler · Maury: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  14. 24 Sarah Jackson · Maury: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  15. 25 Izzy Stone · Maury: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  16. 28 Miranda Bauer · Maury: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  17. 29 Erica Roeske · Manor: 6th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 8)
  18. 30 Lorelei Powers · Granby: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  19. 32 Xiomari Green · Maury: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 37 of 37 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Lily GuinnMaury · JRFinish 17:34.317:34.318:48.4116.3
2Hallie McMurdieMaury · SRFinish 20:16.920:16.921:42.458.3
3Sophia SadrMaury · FRFinish 20:32.020:32.021:58.553.0
4Ariana RiveraGranby · FRFinish 20:53.220:53.222:21.245.4
5Ella GilmoreGranby · SRFinish 21:06.221:06.222:35.140.8
6Mary Ella WynneMaury · JRFinish 21:50.421:50.423:22.525.0
7Julie PoffenbargerGranby · FRFinish 22:08.222:08.223:41.518.6
8Addison FeltsMaury · SRFinish 22:09.522:09.523:42.818.2
9Laurel CaddellGranby · JRFinish 22:50.022:50.024:26.33.7
10Cora CowanGranby · JRFinish 22:55.222:55.224:31.81.9
11Lily KaneChurchland · SOFinish 23:51.823:51.825:32.4—
12Elizabeth DixonMaury · SOFinish 24:05.324:05.325:46.8—
13Jonaya MooreNorview · SRFinish 24:10.224:10.225:52.0—
14Skye MillsI.C. Norcom · SOFinish 24:17.024:17.025:59.3—
15Madelyn CooperGranby · SOFinish 25:09.725:09.726:55.7—
16Melody MerrittManor · JRFinish 25:15.825:15.827:02.3—
17Tyjenya PinkneyNorview · SRFinish 25:25.725:25.727:12.9—
18Ann-Marie MeltonMaury · SRFinish 25:29.225:29.227:16.6—
19Jannah ElmousalamiNorview · SOFinish 25:31.925:31.927:19.5—
20Sonya AdlerMaury · SOFinish 25:46.025:46.027:34.6—
21Kailie BorqueGranby · SRFinish 26:05.526:05.527:55.4—
22Alanah ChrispinNorview · FRFinish 26:10.426:10.428:00.8—
23Emani AllisonNorview · JRFinish 26:46.726:46.728:39.5—
24Sarah JacksonMaury · JRFinish 26:52.526:52.528:45.7—
25Izzy StoneMaury · SOFinish 27:13.127:13.129:07.8—
26Alaijah Kirk-VealI.C. Norcom · SRFinish 27:39.027:39.029:35.6—
27Camryn DanceI.C. Norcom · SOFinish 28:02.128:02.130:00.3—
28Miranda BauerMaury · SOFinish 28:16.628:16.630:15.8—
29Erica RoeskeManor · JRFinish 28:27.628:27.630:27.6—
30Lorelei PowersGranby · FRFinish 29:13.829:13.831:17.0—
31Zecharia KnightI.C. Norcom · Grade not recordedFinish 31:36.431:36.433:49.6—
32Xiomari GreenMaury · JRFinish 31:49.431:49.434:03.6—
33Yowome AyimManor · SOFinish 32:12.732:12.734:28.5—
34Kaylynn MooreNorview · SRFinish 32:46.732:46.735:04.9—
35Synai JamesI.C. Norcom · JRFinish 33:47.733:47.736:10.1—
36Diamond WhiteI.C. Norcom · SRFinish 34:14.334:14.336:38.6—
37Diamond WadeNorview · SOFinish 34:26.634:26.636:51.8—
Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.