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Oct 27, 2022 · Stafford, VA

Commonwealth District Championship Meet

Willowmere Park · Historical 2022 results

Other years: 2025 · 2024 · 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Commonwealth District Championship Meet - 10/27/2022 Willowmere Park, Stafford, VA Girls 5000 Meter Run

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C

49 of 49 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −9.2 s course and conditions +14.5 s in-season fitness −23.7 sCourse constant 498.29 (498)Race constant 495.54 (496)

44 used anchors± 6.3 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 44 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 44, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Kate Loescher · Colonial Forge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 6 more
  2. 2 Madelyn Anderson · Mountain View: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Katherine Craig · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Brenna Elchenko · Stafford: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  5. 5 Shae Reynolds · Brooke Point: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Mary Ella Glauber · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  7. 7 Ella Dover · Stafford: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  8. 8 Elizabeth Kitchens · Mountain View: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Alyss Valerio · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 5 more
  10. 10 Haley Walsh · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Emma Clark · Brooke Point: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Madison Carlisle · Mountain View: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Tessa Vabnick · Mountain View: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Sofia Visioni · Riverbend: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  15. 15 Olivia Priddy · Massaponax: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  16. 16 Helena Griffith · Mountain View: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Olivia Morra · Riverbend: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  18. 18 Mckayla Reyer · Riverbend: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  19. 20 Madison Somerville · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  20. 21 Alexis Barber · Riverbend: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  21. 22 Susan Peterson · Mountain View: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  22. 23 Iman Et-Tarhbalouti · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  23. 24 Chrysanthi Euripides · Massaponax: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3)
  24. 25 Nina Lloyd · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  25. 26 Emily Hicks · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  26. 27 Nadia Wilt · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 5 more
  27. 28 Tamiraa Enkhbayar · Brooke Point: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  28. 30 Madelyn Ellis · Massaponax: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3)
  29. 31 Emily Krebs · Brooke Point: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  30. 32 Scarlett Smith · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  31. 33 Carrie Roy · Brooke Point: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  32. 34 Sophia Lee · Riverbend: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  33. 35 Emily White · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  34. 37 Kaylen Stonebreaker · Riverbend: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  35. 38 Caitlyn Spencer · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 3 more
  36. 39 Mailynn Nguyen · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  37. 40 Oumi Dieng · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  38. 41 Andrea Loza Vargas · North Stafford: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Cpt Doug Richardson King Of The Hill Challenge (Sep 10) · and 1 more
  39. 42 Nicole Schmidt · Massaponax: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3)
  40. 43 Maile Marquez · Brooke Point: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  41. 44 Alaina Kim · Massaponax: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3)
  42. 46 Kathryn Richards · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  43. 47 Megan Gibbons · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  44. 48 Gabriella Irish · Stafford: Richard Bland College of William & Mary XC Invite (Oct 8)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 49 of 49 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Kate LoescherColonial Forge · SOFinish 18:58.418:58.418:50.5115.6
2Madelyn AndersonMountain View · JRFinish 19:27.019:27.019:18.9106.2
3Katherine CraigNorth Stafford · SRFinish 20:04.120:04.119:55.793.9
4Brenna ElchenkoStafford · SRFinish 20:17.120:17.120:08.689.6
5Shae ReynoldsBrooke Point · JRFinish 20:22.720:22.720:14.287.7
6Mary Ella GlauberColonial Forge · JRFinish 20:23.420:23.420:14.987.5
7Ella DoverStafford · SRFinish 20:35.620:35.620:27.083.5
8Elizabeth KitchensMountain View · FRFinish 20:48.420:48.420:39.779.2
9Alyss ValerioColonial Forge · JRFinish 20:55.520:55.520:46.876.9
10Haley WalshNorth Stafford · FRFinish 20:57.220:57.220:48.576.3
11Emma ClarkBrooke Point · JRFinish 20:57.520:57.520:48.776.2
12Madison CarlisleMountain View · SRFinish 21:00.221:00.220:51.475.3
13Tessa VabnickMountain View · FRFinish 21:05.121:05.120:56.373.7
14Sofia VisioniRiverbend · SOFinish 21:05.221:05.220:56.473.7
15Olivia PriddyMassaponax · SOFinish 21:07.421:07.420:58.672.9
16Helena GriffithMountain View · SRFinish 21:20.021:20.021:11.168.8
17Olivia MorraRiverbend · SOFinish 21:26.921:26.921:17.966.5
18Mckayla ReyerRiverbend · SRFinish 21:33.621:33.621:24.664.3
19Alexis RoseMassaponax · SOFinish 21:42.021:42.021:32.961.5
20Madison SomervilleColonial Forge · SOFinish 21:48.221:48.221:39.159.4
21Alexis BarberRiverbend · FRFinish 21:49.821:49.821:40.758.9
22Susan PetersonMountain View · FRFinish 21:51.121:51.121:42.058.5
23Iman Et-TarhbaloutiNorth Stafford · FRFinish 22:01.122:01.121:51.955.2
24Chrysanthi EuripidesMassaponax · SOFinish 22:03.322:03.321:54.154.4
25Nina LloydNorth Stafford · SOFinish 22:04.222:04.221:55.054.1
26Emily HicksColonial Forge · SOFinish 22:07.722:07.721:58.553.0
27Nadia WiltColonial Forge · FRFinish 22:22.222:22.222:12.948.2
28Tamiraa EnkhbayarBrooke Point · SRFinish 22:32.122:32.122:22.744.9
29Maylie HudsonMountain View · SRFinish 22:42.922:42.922:33.441.3
30Madelyn EllisMassaponax · JRFinish 22:52.622:52.622:43.038.1
31Emily KrebsBrooke Point · JRFinish 22:56.522:56.522:46.936.8
32Scarlett SmithColonial Forge · SOFinish 23:05.823:05.822:56.233.7
33Carrie RoyBrooke Point · FRFinish 23:07.123:07.122:57.433.3
34Sophia LeeRiverbend · SOFinish 23:07.623:07.622:57.933.2
35Emily WhiteStafford · FRFinish 23:25.323:25.323:15.527.3
36Ella StonebreakerRiverbend · JRFinish 23:30.923:30.923:21.125.4
37Kaylen StonebreakerRiverbend · JRFinish 23:38.423:38.423:28.523.0
38Caitlyn SpencerNorth Stafford · SOFinish 23:54.023:54.023:44.017.8
39Mailynn NguyenStafford · JRFinish 23:54.123:54.123:44.117.8
40Oumi DiengStafford · FRFinish 24:25.724:25.724:15.57.3
41Andrea Loza VargasNorth Stafford · JRFinish 25:02.325:02.324:51.8—
42Nicole SchmidtMassaponax · JRFinish 25:16.225:16.225:05.6—
43Maile MarquezBrooke Point · SOFinish 25:23.825:23.825:13.2—
44Alaina KimMassaponax · SOFinish 25:31.525:31.525:20.8—
45Dylan DietzBrooke Point · SRFinish 25:51.525:51.525:40.7—
46Kathryn RichardsNorth Stafford · SRFinish 25:58.025:58.025:47.2—
47Megan GibbonsStafford · SRFinish 26:29.126:29.126:18.0—
48Gabriella IrishStafford · Grade not recordedFinish 26:44.626:44.626:33.4—
49Madison HallMassaponax · SOFinish 27:47.427:47.427:35.8—

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Boys 5000 Meter Run

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C

46 of 46 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −5.7 s course and conditions +17.2 s in-season fitness −22.9 sCourse constant 497.08 (497)Race constant 493.33 (493)

46 used anchors± 6.3 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.973Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 46 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 46, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Brady Brennan · Brooke Point: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  2. 2 Tyler Arnold · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Justin Rau · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  4. 4 Steven Niese · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Charles Schilling · Mountain View: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Ian Bollinger · Mountain View: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Diego Pons · Mountain View: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Ethan Lapier · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  9. 9 Aaron Jacobs · Brooke Point: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  10. 10 Ethan Munoz · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Gabe Johnson · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Landon Mills · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 5 more
  13. 13 Nathan Godsey · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Matthew Johannes · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  15. 15 John Wheeler · Mountain View: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Cameron Sidebotham · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 5 more
  17. 17 Garrett Pearl · Brooke Point: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  18. 18 Xavier Marcano · Mountain View: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Shaun Tiller · Brooke Point: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  20. 20 Darren Hill · Brooke Point: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  21. 21 Jordan Booth · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  22. 22 Jacob Korn · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  23. 23 Ethan Hudjohn · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 3 more
  24. 24 Sebastian Grant · Mountain View: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  25. 25 Logan Ramos · Brooke Point: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  26. 26 Nathan Tarbet · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8)
  27. 27 Foster Moon · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  28. 28 Liam Andros · Brooke Point: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  29. 29 Jack Tetreault · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  30. 30 Ian LeCain · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  31. 31 Robert Calvert · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Richard Bland College of William & Mary XC Invite (Oct 8) · and 3 more
  32. 32 Daniel Diaczyszyn · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  33. 33 Alex Rexroat · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  34. 34 Max Salvanera · Mountain View: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  35. 35 William Pabst · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8)
  36. 36 Alexander Beamon · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  37. 37 Diego Polacios · Massaponax: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3)
  38. 38 Owen Zinn · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  39. 39 Nicholas Taylor · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  40. 40 Benjamin Meyers · North Stafford: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24) · and 2 more
  41. 41 Nathan Meline · Stafford: Richard Bland College of William & Mary XC Invite (Oct 8) · Woodberry Forest Cross Country Invitational (Sep 30)
  42. 42 Ethan Govar · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  43. 43 Chance Gillespie · Massaponax: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3)
  44. 44 Braden Elchenko · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 4 more
  45. 45 Ryan Kemmey · Massaponax: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3)
  46. 46 Alex Athanasaw · Massaponax: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 46 of 46 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Brady BrennanBrooke Point · SOFinish 15:34.915:34.915:26.5181.1
2Tyler ArnoldRiverbend · SOFinish 16:15.916:15.916:07.1167.6
3Justin RauRiverbend · SOFinish 16:44.016:44.016:34.9158.3
4Steven NieseColonial Forge · SOFinish 17:10.217:10.217:00.9149.7
5Charles SchillingMountain View · JRFinish 17:11.417:11.417:02.1149.3
6Ian BollingerMountain View · JRFinish 17:13.417:13.417:04.1148.6
7Diego PonsMountain View · JRFinish 17:31.017:31.017:21.6142.8
8Ethan LapierRiverbend · SOFinish 17:44.217:44.217:34.6138.4
9Aaron JacobsBrooke Point · SRFinish 17:46.317:46.317:36.7137.8
10Ethan MunozColonial Forge · SOFinish 17:48.617:48.617:39.0137.0
11Gabe JohnsonRiverbend · JRFinish 17:57.717:57.717:47.9134.0
12Landon MillsColonial Forge · JRFinish 17:58.917:58.917:49.2133.6
13Nathan GodseyStafford · SRFinish 18:07.418:07.417:57.6130.8
14Matthew JohannesColonial Forge · JRFinish 18:08.418:08.417:58.6130.4
15John WheelerMountain View · JRFinish 18:09.318:09.317:59.4130.2
16Cameron SidebothamColonial Forge · JRFinish 18:09.818:09.818:00.0130.0
17Garrett PearlBrooke Point · JRFinish 18:15.618:15.618:05.7128.1
18Xavier MarcanoMountain View · JRFinish 18:21.718:21.718:11.8126.0
19Shaun TillerBrooke Point · JRFinish 18:24.518:24.518:14.6125.1
20Darren HillBrooke Point · JRFinish 18:27.518:27.518:17.5124.1
21Jordan BoothNorth Stafford · SOFinish 18:27.718:27.718:17.7124.1
22Jacob KornRiverbend · FRFinish 18:28.518:28.518:18.5123.8
23Ethan HudjohnNorth Stafford · JRFinish 18:36.218:36.218:26.2121.2
24Sebastian GrantMountain View · SRFinish 18:38.718:38.718:28.7120.4
25Logan RamosBrooke Point · JRFinish 18:43.018:43.018:32.9119.0
26Nathan TarbetRiverbend · SOFinish 18:44.418:44.418:34.2118.6
27Foster MoonRiverbend · SRFinish 18:48.118:48.118:38.0117.3
28Liam AndrosBrooke Point · SRFinish 18:49.018:49.018:38.9117.0
29Jack TetreaultColonial Forge · SOFinish 18:55.218:55.218:45.0115.0
30Ian LeCainNorth Stafford · SOFinish 18:59.918:59.918:49.6113.4
31Robert CalvertStafford · Grade not recordedFinish 19:03.119:03.118:52.8112.4
32Daniel DiaczyszynColonial Forge · SRFinish 19:04.719:04.718:54.4111.8
33Alex RexroatNorth Stafford · JRFinish 19:08.619:08.618:58.3110.5
34Max SalvaneraMountain View · FRFinish 19:50.319:50.319:39.696.8
35William PabstNorth Stafford · SRFinish 19:53.319:53.319:42.695.8
36Alexander BeamonStafford · SOFinish 19:55.419:55.419:44.695.1
37Diego PolaciosMassaponax · SOFinish 19:59.619:59.619:48.893.7
38Owen ZinnStafford · SRFinish 20:08.120:08.119:57.290.9
39Nicholas TaylorNorth Stafford · SRFinish 20:50.220:50.220:39.077.0
40Benjamin MeyersNorth Stafford · JRFinish 21:09.321:09.320:57.970.7
41Nathan MelineStafford · SRFinish 21:10.721:10.720:59.270.2
42Ethan GovarStafford · FRFinish 22:05.322:05.321:53.452.2
43Chance GillespieMassaponax · SOFinish 22:29.822:29.822:17.644.1
44Braden ElchenkoStafford · FRFinish 22:32.322:32.322:20.143.3
45Ryan KemmeyMassaponax · JRFinish 24:49.524:49.524:36.0—
46Alex AthanasawMassaponax · SRFinish 26:13.426:13.425:59.2—

Commonwealth District Championship Meet, Oct 27, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.