NovaRunners
All meets

Oct 8, 2022 · South Prince George, VA

Richard Bland College of William & Mary XC Invite

Richard Bland College of William and Mary · Historical 2022 results

Report a problem with this meet

Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 167.7), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

2 of 4 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Championship Girls 5000 Meter Run

Copy link to Girls Championship
C

66 of 66 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −44.1 s course and conditions −33.0 s in-season fitness −11.1 sCourse constant 480.63 (481)Race constant 480.09 (480)

66 used anchors± 7.3 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 66 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. This race shares part of its adjustment with the other divisions run here on the same course and day. Listed here: the first 50 of 66, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Alli Crytser · Hanover: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  2. 2 Kate Loescher · Colonial Forge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 6 more
  3. 3 Kylie Bonser · Midlothian: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Ava Bordner · Skyline: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · and 5 more
  5. 5 Lydia Mikhin · James Madison: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Northern Region Cross Country Championship (Nov 3) · and 4 more
  6. 6 Brenna Elchenko · Stafford: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  7. 7 Mya Baker · Gloucester: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Mary Raterman · Broad Run: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 4C XC Championship (Nov 2) · and 3 more
  9. 9 Jillian Sisk · Varina: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Hannah Clarke · Hanover: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Ella Dover · Stafford: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  12. 12 Adelynn Carpenter · Hanover: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · and 2 more
  13. 13 Mary Ella Glauber · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 4 more
  14. 14 Mary Mansfield · Matoaca: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · and 1 more
  15. 15 Katie Tylecki · James Madison: Northern Region Cross Country Championship (Nov 3) · Concorde District CC Championship (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  16. 16 Alyss Valerio · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 5 more
  17. 17 Lucia Blackford · Broad Run: Dulles District CC Championship (Oct 25) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  18. 18 Kiki Van Der Weide · James Madison: Northern Region Cross Country Championship (Nov 3) · Concorde District CC Championship (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  19. 19 Rachael Keller · Broad Run: Dulles District CC Championship (Oct 25) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  20. 20 Bella Faudale · Hanover: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · and 3 more
  21. 21 Hannah Petersen · James Madison: Northern Region Cross Country Championship (Nov 3) · Concorde District CC Championship (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Sara Rooney · James Madison: Northern Region Cross Country Championship (Nov 3) · Concorde District CC Championship (Oct 27) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Alexa Hewson · Courtland: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · Battlefield District Championship (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  24. 24 Lily Jacobs · James Madison: Northern Region Cross Country Championship (Nov 3) · Concorde District CC Championship (Oct 27) · and 2 more
  25. 25 Emily Hicks · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 4 more
  26. 26 Madison Somerville · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  27. 27 Megan Arp · Skyline: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 3B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · and 2 more
  28. 28 Isabella Godard · Hanover: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · and 3 more
  29. 29 Emily White · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 4 more
  30. 30 Alison Sears · Skyline: VHSL Region 3B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  31. 31 Addison Rodal · Midlothian: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  32. 32 Kaitlyn Antonelli · Skyline: VHSL Region 3B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  33. 33 Kassidy Donelson · Courtland: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · Battlefield District Championship (Oct 19)
  34. 34 Scarlett Smith · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  35. 35 Margo Dumouchelle · Broad Run: Dulles District CC Championship (Oct 25) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  36. 36 Sibyl Harrell · Hanover: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · and 3 more
  37. 37 Megan Lamberson · Midlothian: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  38. 38 Nadia Wilt · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 5 more
  39. 39 Kate Lowe · Midlothian: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  40. 40 Caylee Gooss · Midlothian: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  41. 41 Ella Heisterkamp · James Madison: Concorde District CC Championship (Oct 27) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  42. 42 Anne Krieger · James Madison: Concorde District CC Championship (Oct 27) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  43. 43 Mailynn Nguyen · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  44. 44 Emily Burnette · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  45. 45 Caroline Clinton · James Madison: Concorde District CC Championship (Oct 27) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  46. 46 Laurean Keller · Broad Run: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  47. 47 Lydia Wallace · Broad Run: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  48. 48 Davan Desmond · Broad Run: Dulles District CC Championship (Oct 25) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  49. 49 Mackenzie Alcorn · Gloucester: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  50. 50 Abigail Junker · Gloucester: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 66 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Alli CrytserHanover · SRFinish 17:53.017:53.018:23.3124.7
2Kate LoescherColonial Forge · SOFinish 18:18.018:18.018:49.0116.1
3Kylie BonserMidlothian · SRFinish 18:37.018:37.019:08.5109.6
4Ava BordnerSkyline · SRFinish 18:42.018:42.019:13.7107.9
5Lydia MikhinJames Madison · SOFinish 19:05.019:05.019:37.3100.0
6Brenna ElchenkoStafford · SRFinish 19:14.019:14.019:46.696.9
7Mya BakerGloucester · JRFinish 19:23.019:23.019:55.893.8
8Mary RatermanBroad Run · JRFinish 19:25.019:25.019:57.993.2
9Jillian SiskVarina · SRFinish 19:29.019:29.020:02.091.8
10Hannah ClarkeHanover · JRFinish 19:44.019:44.020:17.486.7
11Ella DoverStafford · SRFinish 19:50.019:50.020:23.684.6
12Adelynn CarpenterHanover · JRFinish 20:15.020:15.020:49.376.0
13Mary Ella GlauberColonial Forge · JRFinish 20:16.020:16.020:50.375.7
14Mary MansfieldMatoaca · SOFinish 20:26.020:26.021:00.672.3
15Katie TyleckiJames Madison · SOFinish 20:27.020:27.021:01.771.9
16Alyss ValerioColonial Forge · SRFinish 20:27.020:27.021:01.771.9
17Lucia BlackfordBroad Run · JRFinish 20:27.020:27.021:01.771.9
18Kiki Van Der WeideJames Madison · SOFinish 20:35.020:35.021:09.969.2
19Rachael KellerBroad Run · JRFinish 20:55.020:55.021:30.462.3
20Bella FaudaleHanover · SRFinish 21:00.021:00.021:35.660.6
21Hannah PetersenJames Madison · SRFinish 21:17.021:17.021:53.154.8
22Sara RooneyJames Madison · JRFinish 21:18.021:18.021:54.154.4
23Alexa HewsonCourtland · SRFinish 21:22.021:22.021:58.253.1
24Lily JacobsJames Madison · SRFinish 21:34.021:34.022:10.548.9
25Emily HicksColonial Forge · SOFinish 21:35.021:35.022:11.648.6
26Madison SomervilleColonial Forge · SOFinish 21:37.021:37.022:13.647.9
27Megan ArpSkyline · SRFinish 21:40.021:40.022:16.746.9
28Isabella GodardHanover · SOFinish 21:40.021:40.022:16.746.9
29Emily WhiteStafford · FRFinish 21:41.021:41.022:17.746.6
30Alison SearsSkyline · SOFinish 21:44.021:44.022:20.845.5
31Addison RodalMidlothian · JRFinish 21:46.021:46.022:22.944.8
32Kaitlyn AntonelliSkyline · JRFinish 21:49.021:49.022:26.043.8
33Kassidy DonelsonCourtland · FRFinish 21:53.021:53.022:30.142.4
34Scarlett SmithColonial Forge · SOFinish 21:57.021:57.022:34.241.1
35Margo DumouchelleBroad Run · SRFinish 21:58.021:58.022:35.240.7
36Sibyl HarrellHanover · JRFinish 21:59.021:59.022:36.340.4
37Megan LambersonMidlothian · JRFinish 22:00.022:00.022:37.340.0
38Nadia WiltColonial Forge · FRFinish 22:02.022:02.022:39.339.4
39Kate LoweMidlothian · JRFinish 22:02.022:02.022:39.339.4
40Caylee GoossMidlothian · SOFinish 22:06.022:06.022:43.438.0
41Ella HeisterkampJames Madison · SRFinish 22:07.022:07.022:44.537.6
42Anne KriegerJames Madison · SRFinish 22:12.022:12.022:49.635.9
43Mailynn NguyenStafford · JRFinish 22:21.022:21.022:58.932.8
44Emily BurnetteStafford · JRFinish 22:30.022:30.023:08.129.8
45Caroline ClintonJames Madison · SRFinish 22:34.022:34.023:12.228.4
46Laurean KellerBroad Run · FRFinish 22:36.022:36.023:14.327.7
47Lydia WallaceBroad Run · SOFinish 22:41.022:41.023:19.426.0
48Davan DesmondBroad Run · JRFinish 22:41.022:41.023:19.426.0
49Mackenzie AlcornGloucester · SOFinish 22:41.022:41.023:19.426.0
50Abigail JunkerGloucester · SOFinish 22:43.022:43.023:21.525.3
Show all 66 results (16 more)Showing all 66 results · hide rows 51–66
Girls results, rows 51 to 66 of 66
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Sarah ColquittBroad Run · FRFinish 22:55.022:55.023:33.821.2
52Olivia DeFratesSkyline · SOFinish 22:55.022:55.023:33.821.2
53Oumi DiengStafford · FRFinish 23:04.023:04.023:43.118.1
54Emily TomlinsonJames Madison · SOFinish 23:07.023:07.023:46.217.1
55Saisha PaitaniBroad Run · SRFinish 23:07.023:07.023:46.217.1
56Charlotte WylieMidlothian · FRFinish 23:11.023:11.023:50.315.7
57Claire HillsmanMidlothian · FRFinish 23:11.023:11.023:50.315.7
58Elizabeth ClaybornMidlothian · FRFinish 23:16.023:16.023:55.414.0
59Addison HewsonCourtland · FRFinish 23:19.023:19.023:58.513.0
60Audrey SandersBroad Run · JRFinish 23:29.023:29.024:08.89.5
61Elise GravesMidlothian · SOFinish 23:37.023:37.024:17.06.8
62Adeline SappenfieldCourtland · SRFinish 23:42.023:42.024:22.25.1
63Kaiylah CastellanosStafford · FRFinish 23:59.023:59.024:39.6—
64Aubrey JonesColonial Forge · FRFinish 24:36.024:36.025:17.7—
65Megan GibbonsStafford · SRFinish 25:00.025:00.025:42.4—
66Evridiki KarvelasCourtland · SRFinish 28:08.028:08.028:55.7—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

EE Girls 5000 Meter Run

Copy link to Girls EE
C

43 of 43 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −43.7 s course and conditions −32.6 s in-season fitness −11.1 sCourse constant 478.97 (479)Race constant 478.43 (478)

21 used anchors± 9.0 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 21 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. This race shares part of its adjustment with the other divisions run here on the same course and day. Listed here: all 21, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 2 Grace White · Matoaca: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  2. 3 Kathleen Papiernik · Matoaca: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  3. 4 Meredith Soiland · Hanover: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 2) · and 2 more
  4. 5 Caitlin Stearns · Hanover: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 2) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  5. 6 Justina Lu · James Madison: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24) · Monroe Parker Invitational (Sep 10)
  6. 7 Evie Keener · Hanover: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 2) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  7. 9 Phoebe Park · James Madison: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  8. 10 Emmaline Freeman · Broad Run: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  9. 11 Hannah Broadwell · Gloucester: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12)
  10. 14 Madelyn Law · Matoaca: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  11. 19 Sarah Williams · James Madison: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  12. 20 Elsie Weinberg · James Madison: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24) · Monroe Parker Invitational (Sep 10)
  13. 22 Caitlyn Carter · Colonial Forge: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Cpt Doug Richardson King Of The Hill Challenge (Sep 10)
  14. 24 Gabriella Irish · Stafford: Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27)
  15. 29 Kelly Grady · Colonial Forge: Hood College HS Invitational (Sep 3)
  16. 31 Charlotte Lee · Matoaca: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2)
  17. 32 Claire Pollock · Broad Run: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  18. 33 Hailey Coy · Broad Run: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24)
  19. 36 Anna Subova · Hanover: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 2)
  20. 41 Kara Douglas · Hanover: VHSL Region 5C XC Championship Meet Manager (Nov 2)
  21. 43 Keely Sandefur · Hanover: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 43 of 43 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Virginia HensonRappahannock Ospreys · SOFinish 21:25.021:25.022:00.852.2
2Grace WhiteMatoaca · FRFinish 22:19.022:19.022:56.333.7
3Kathleen PapiernikMatoaca · SRFinish 22:57.022:57.023:35.420.7
4Meredith SoilandHanover · JRFinish 23:00.023:00.023:38.419.7
5Caitlin StearnsHanover · FRFinish 23:15.023:15.023:53.914.5
6Justina LuJames Madison · SRFinish 23:31.023:31.024:10.39.0
7Evie KeenerHanover · SOFinish 23:39.023:39.024:18.56.3
8Kayla TurnerGloucester · SOFinish 23:52.023:52.024:31.91.8
9Phoebe ParkJames Madison · JRFinish 23:56.023:56.024:36.00.5
10Emmaline FreemanBroad Run · FRFinish 23:57.023:57.024:37.00.1
11Hannah BroadwellGloucester · FRFinish 23:59.023:59.024:39.1—
12Elizabeth ColemanHanover · SOFinish 24:16.024:16.024:56.6—
13Vera KorffJames Madison · SRFinish 24:22.024:22.025:02.7—
14Madelyn LawMatoaca · JRFinish 24:22.024:22.025:02.7—
15Grace SchultzRappahannock Ospreys · FRFinish 24:34.024:34.025:15.1—
16Elizabeth RootJames Madison · JRFinish 24:49.024:49.025:30.5—
17Annalise HeltonGloucester · SOFinish 24:52.024:52.025:33.6—
18Casey BillingsGloucester · FRFinish 24:56.024:56.025:37.7—
19Sarah WilliamsJames Madison · FRFinish 24:56.024:56.025:37.7—
20Elsie WeinbergJames Madison · JRFinish 24:58.024:58.025:39.7—
21Victoria ClarkColonial Forge · FRFinish 25:01.025:01.025:42.8—
22Caitlyn CarterColonial Forge · SRFinish 25:12.025:12.025:54.1—
23Alison HunterColonial Forge · JRFinish 25:13.025:13.025:55.1—
24Gabriella IrishStafford · FRFinish 25:15.025:15.025:57.2—
25Molly McShaneJames Madison · SOFinish 25:19.025:19.026:01.3—
26Hannah RidingsGloucester · FRFinish 25:20.025:20.026:02.3—
27Kate PetersenJames Madison · FRFinish 25:35.025:35.026:17.8—
28Chloe SylvesterGloucester · FRFinish 25:53.025:53.026:36.3—
29Kelly GradyColonial Forge · JRFinish 25:57.025:57.026:40.4—
30Addy HumphreysColonial Forge · FRFinish 25:59.025:59.026:42.4—
31Charlotte LeeMatoaca · SOFinish 26:15.026:15.026:58.9—
32Claire PollockBroad Run · FRFinish 26:17.026:17.027:00.9—
33Hailey CoyBroad Run · JRFinish 26:24.026:24.027:08.1—
34Megan McNallyBroad Run · SOFinish 26:25.026:25.027:09.2—
35Sydney CottrellStafford · FRFinish 26:26.026:26.027:10.2—
36Anna SubovaHanover · JRFinish 27:37.027:37.028:23.2—
37Zoe ScottGloucester · SOFinish 27:38.027:38.028:24.2—
38Annabelle TenneyColonial Forge · SOFinish 27:55.027:55.028:41.7—
39Abby BrownGloucester · SRFinish 28:36.028:36.029:23.8—
40Sofia DormanBroad Run · SRFinish 29:31.029:31.030:20.3—
41Kara DouglasHanover · JRFinish 30:00.030:00.030:50.1—
42Chelsea BrownBroad Run · SRFinish 30:18.030:18.031:08.6—
43Keely SandefurHanover · FRFinish 32:04.032:04.032:57.6—

Richard Bland College of William & Mary XC Invite, Oct 8, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.