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Sep 10, 2022 · King George, VA

Cpt Doug Richardson King Of The Hill Challenge

King George HS 5K Course · Historical 2022 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 167.5), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

2 of 4 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero. JV races are not calculated on their own. Each uses its meet’s varsity adjustment plus a JV adjustment.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

SnapTiming Captain Doug Richardson King of The Hill King George, King George, VA - 9/10/2022 Girls Varsity A Race 5k

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B

62 of 62 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +96.8 s course and conditions +57.4 s in-season fitness +39.4 sCourse constant 515.19 (515)Race constant 523.91 (524)

58 used anchors± 5.4 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 58 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: the first 50 of 58, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Colleen Kelly · Battlefield: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Taylor Gibson · Lightridge: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 4C XC Championship (Nov 2) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Hannah Weber · Battlefield: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Kate Loescher · Colonial Forge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 6 more
  5. 5 Sailor Eastman · Battlefield: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  6. 6 Sophia Gross · Lightridge: Escape The Rock Invitational (Sep 17)
  7. 7 Katherine Craig · North Stafford: Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Ella Dover · Stafford: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  9. 9 Grace Sheldon · Battlefield: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Emma Clark · Brooke Point: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  11. 11 Brenna Elchenko · Stafford: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 5 more
  12. 12 Makenzie Milburn · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  13. 13 Mary Ella Glauber · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 4 more
  14. 14 Lucy Arnold · Battlefield: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  15. 15 Shae Reynolds · Brooke Point: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  16. 16 Emily Hicks · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 4 more
  17. 17 Alyss Valerio · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 5 more
  18. 18 Iman Et-Tarhbalouti · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  19. 19 Magan Wauer · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  20. 20 Sofia Visioni · Riverbend: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 1 more
  21. 21 Kenzie Harris · Battlefield: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Mckayla Reyer · Riverbend: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  23. 23 Olivia Morra · Riverbend: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  24. 24 Addison Buck · Lightridge: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 24) · Escape The Rock Invitational (Sep 17)
  25. 25 Haley Walsh · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 4 more
  26. 28 Emily White · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 4 more
  27. 29 Emily Tran · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  28. 30 Alexis Barber · Riverbend: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 2 more
  29. 31 Michaela Holmes · Brooke Point: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  30. 32 Ariya Shah · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 1 more
  31. 33 Bri Marraccini · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  32. 34 Nadia Wilt · Colonial Forge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 5 more
  33. 35 Adriana Chavez · Woodgrove: Carlisle Invitational (Sep 24)
  34. 36 Mailynn Nguyen · Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  35. 37 Breana Herbolsheimer · King George: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · Battlefield District Championship (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  36. 38 Kylie Peters · King George: Battlefield District Championship (Oct 19) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  37. 39 Sophia Lee · Riverbend: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  38. 40 Sofia Urgeles Montaner · Orange County: VHSL Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Jefferson District Championship (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  39. 41 Anna Draper · Colonial Forge: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Woodberry Forest Cross Country Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  40. 42 Amalie Spencer-Hamm · Brooke Point: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  41. 43 Emily Krebs · Brooke Point: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 1 more
  42. 44 Kathryn Richards · North Stafford: Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  43. 45 Andrea Loza Vargas · North Stafford: Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  44. 46 Jacqueline Murillo · King George: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · Battlefield District Championship (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  45. 47 Hailey Sekhon · Lightridge: Region 4C XC Championship (Nov 2) · Dulles District CC Championship (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  46. 48 Anna Labrusciano · Riverbend: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  47. 49 Isabella Perkins · King George: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · Battlefield District Championship (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  48. 50 Caitlyn Spencer · North Stafford: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Commonwealth District Championship Meet (Oct 27) · and 3 more
  49. 51 Caitlyn Carter · Colonial Forge: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Richard Bland College of William & Mary XC Invite (Oct 8)
  50. 53 Audry Jones · King George: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships Meet Manager (Nov 2) · Battlefield District Championship (Oct 19)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 62 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Colleen KellyBattlefield · JRFinish 19:53.819:53.818:36.4120.3
2Taylor GibsonLightridge · SRFinish 19:59.219:59.218:41.5118.6
3Hannah WeberBattlefield · SRFinish 20:41.120:41.119:20.7105.6
4Kate LoescherColonial Forge · SOFinish 21:10.521:10.519:48.296.4
5Sailor EastmanBattlefield · JRFinish 21:32.521:32.520:08.789.6
6Sophia GrossLightridge · JRFinish 21:42.721:42.720:18.386.4
7Katherine CraigNorth Stafford · SRFinish 21:44.421:44.420:19.985.8
8Ella DoverStafford · SRFinish 21:47.721:47.720:23.084.8
9Grace SheldonBattlefield · JRFinish 21:51.721:51.720:26.783.6
10Emma ClarkBrooke Point · JRFinish 21:57.921:57.920:32.581.6
11Brenna ElchenkoStafford · SRFinish 22:09.322:09.320:43.278.1
12Makenzie MilburnWoodgrove · JRFinish 22:18.122:18.120:51.475.3
13Mary Ella GlauberColonial Forge · JRFinish 22:23.322:23.320:56.273.7
14Lucy ArnoldBattlefield · FRFinish 22:53.622:53.621:24.664.3
15Shae ReynoldsBrooke Point · JRFinish 22:55.022:55.021:25.963.8
16Emily HicksColonial Forge · SOFinish 22:57.222:57.221:27.963.1
17Alyss ValerioColonial Forge · JRFinish 22:57.222:57.221:27.963.1
18Iman Et-TarhbaloutiNorth Stafford · FRFinish 23:12.123:12.121:41.958.5
19Magan WauerWoodgrove · SRFinish 23:25.223:25.221:54.154.4
20Sofia VisioniRiverbend · SOFinish 23:29.423:29.421:58.153.1
21Kenzie HarrisBattlefield · SOFinish 23:33.823:33.822:02.251.7
22Mckayla ReyerRiverbend · SRFinish 23:38.123:38.122:06.250.4
23Olivia MorraRiverbend · SOFinish 23:38.723:38.722:06.850.2
24Addison BuckLightridge · JRFinish 23:45.123:45.122:12.748.2
25Haley WalshNorth Stafford · FRFinish 23:51.023:51.022:18.346.4
26Callista RashKing George · FRFinish 23:55.623:55.622:22.644.9
27Caroline ChristyRiverbend · FRFinish 24:00.824:00.822:27.443.3
28Emily WhiteStafford · FRFinish 24:01.924:01.922:28.543.0
29Emily TranWoodgrove · JRFinish 24:07.124:07.122:33.341.4
30Alexis BarberRiverbend · FRFinish 24:07.124:07.122:33.341.4
31Michaela HolmesBrooke Point · FRFinish 24:14.524:14.522:40.239.1
32Ariya ShahWoodgrove · SOFinish 24:17.024:17.022:42.638.3
33Bri MarracciniWoodgrove · SOFinish 24:17.724:17.722:43.238.1
34Nadia WiltColonial Forge · FRFinish 24:30.924:30.922:55.633.9
35Adriana ChavezWoodgrove · SOFinish 24:36.624:36.623:00.932.2
36Mailynn NguyenStafford · JRFinish 24:40.324:40.323:04.431.0
37Breana HerbolsheimerKing George · FRFinish 24:43.024:43.023:06.930.2
38Kylie PetersKing George · SOFinish 24:44.424:44.423:08.229.7
39Sophia LeeRiverbend · SOFinish 24:45.024:45.023:08.829.5
40Sofia Urgeles MontanerOrange County · SRFinish 24:51.924:51.923:15.227.4
41Anna DraperColonial Forge · SOFinish 25:18.525:18.523:40.119.1
42Amalie Spencer-HammBrooke Point · SRFinish 25:48.025:48.024:07.79.9
43Emily KrebsBrooke Point · JRFinish 25:55.125:55.124:14.37.7
44Kathryn RichardsNorth Stafford · SRFinish 26:06.926:06.924:25.44.0
45Andrea Loza VargasNorth Stafford · JRFinish 26:09.026:09.024:27.33.4
46Jacqueline MurilloKing George · FRFinish 26:20.526:20.524:38.1—
47Hailey SekhonLightridge · SOFinish 26:28.026:28.024:45.1—
48Anna LabruscianoRiverbend · JRFinish 26:29.126:29.124:46.1—
49Isabella PerkinsKing George · JRFinish 26:29.926:29.924:46.9—
50Caitlyn SpencerNorth Stafford · SOFinish 26:43.926:43.925:00.0—
Show all 62 results (12 more)Showing all 62 results · hide rows 51–62
Girls results, rows 51 to 62 of 62
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Caitlyn CarterColonial Forge · SRFinish 27:29.127:29.125:42.2—
52Kaelyn SamahaWoodgrove · JRFinish 27:46.627:46.625:58.6—
53Audry JonesKing George · SOFinish 27:52.627:52.626:04.2—
54Kaiylah CastellanosStafford · FRFinish 28:01.228:01.226:12.2—
55Maile MarquezBrooke Point · SOFinish 28:10.028:10.026:20.5—
56Kiara HickmanNorth Stafford · SOFinish 28:14.828:14.826:25.0—
57Ruth Louise PageKing George · FRFinish 29:46.329:46.327:50.5—
58Charlotte SamuelsOrange County · SRFinish 30:03.330:03.328:06.4—
59Megan GibbonsStafford · SRFinish 30:11.830:11.828:14.4—
60Laura VergaraBrooke Point · SOFinish 30:22.530:22.528:24.4—
61Ynadis Sanchez-RomeroOrange County · FRFinish 30:41.630:41.628:42.2—
62D'Viyne AlexanderOrange County · SRFinish 30:41.830:41.828:42.4—

GIRLS · JV · 5,000 M

Girls JV Race 5k

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D

46 of 46 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +104.2 s course and conditions +64.6 s in-season fitness +39.7 sCourse constant 523.84 (524)Race constant 534.77 (535)

Unavailable used anchors± 20.5 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Girls results, places shown 1 to 46 of 46 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Addison WrightFredericksburg Christian School · 7Finish 25:05.125:05.123:19.625.9
2Lilly LehmbeckWoodgrove · FRFinish 25:18.725:18.723:32.221.7
3Molly BollhorstLightridge · FRFinish 25:46.125:46.123:57.713.2
4Cadence McGrathWoodgrove · JRFinish 26:02.426:02.424:12.98.2
5Margaret OliverWoodgrove · FRFinish 26:34.226:34.224:42.4—
6Claire DavidsonBattlefield · SOFinish 26:53.826:53.825:00.7—
7Katie SchultzWoodgrove · FRFinish 27:08.327:08.325:14.2—
8Sara NovingerLightridge · FRFinish 27:08.327:08.325:14.2—
9Daniella AzizLightridge · FRFinish 27:25.727:25.725:30.3—
10Oumi DiengStafford · FRFinish 27:30.427:30.425:34.7—
11Ashley GingerichWoodgrove · JRFinish 27:32.827:32.825:36.9—
12Harshitha KapaLightridge · SOFinish 27:39.327:39.325:43.0—
13Sarah BainBattlefield · SOFinish 27:43.027:43.025:46.4—
14Savannah LangaasFredericksburg Christian School · FRFinish 27:55.327:55.325:57.9—
15Ava CourterLightridge · JRFinish 28:20.428:20.426:21.2—
16Kate HowellFredericksburg Christian School · 8Finish 28:27.028:27.026:27.3—
17Stella ThorneLightridge · FRFinish 28:38.728:38.726:38.2—
18Jolina ChuLightridge · FRFinish 28:59.028:59.026:57.1—
19Rianna BashaweehLightridge · FRFinish 29:11.229:11.227:08.4—
20Brelyn HagaKing George · 8Finish 29:24.129:24.127:20.4—
21Katherine YoungWoodgrove · SOFinish 29:41.929:41.927:37.0—
22Lauryn PearsonC.D. Hylton · SOFinish 29:58.229:58.227:52.1—
23Brie ScottFredericksburg Christian School · 8Finish 30:08.030:08.028:01.3—
24Hannah HakimpourBattlefield · JRFinish 30:12.730:12.728:05.6—
25Gabriella IrishStafford · FRFinish 30:45.630:45.628:36.2—
26Ashley MendezLightridge · SOFinish 30:55.930:55.928:45.8—
27Mya MalloyKing George · SOFinish 31:15.731:15.729:04.2—
28Claire WebbFredericksburg Christian School · SOFinish 31:16.631:16.629:05.0—
29Lorelai MooradianNew Kent · 8Finish 31:47.931:47.929:34.2—
30Lily ThompsonCourtland · FRFinish 31:51.331:51.329:37.3—
31Anu UuganbatBrooke Point · SOFinish 32:12.332:12.329:56.8—
32Jocelyn SaundersBrooke Point · JRFinish 32:13.032:13.029:57.5—
33Georgia PorterBattlefield · SRFinish 32:14.632:14.629:59.0—
34Sydney WillaimsKing George · SOFinish 32:29.432:29.430:12.7—
35Evridiki KarvelasCourtland · SRFinish 32:34.432:34.430:17.4—
36Sydney CottrellStafford · FRFinish 32:35.332:35.330:18.2—
37Gabrielle MoraFredericksburg Academy · SOFinish 33:57.533:57.531:34.7—
38Anna MitzelFredericksburg Christian School · SRFinish 34:01.434:01.431:38.3—
39Brooke JohnStafford · SOFinish 34:03.934:03.931:40.6—
40Ainhoa Giuseppi DiazKing George · JRFinish 34:17.334:17.331:53.1—
41Elisabeth DubykNorth Stafford · JRFinish 34:36.134:36.132:10.6—
42Andrea DallaireNew Kent · 8Finish 35:10.235:10.232:42.3—
43Casey WatsonKing George · FRFinish 36:40.436:40.434:06.1—
44Anastasia JonesFredericksburg Christian School · SRFinish 37:22.937:22.934:45.7—
45Maddie WynhamKing George · SOFinish 38:42.738:42.735:59.9—
46Madison SwaniganC.D. Hylton · SOFinish 40:49.440:49.437:57.7—

Cpt Doug Richardson King Of The Hill Challenge, Sep 10, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.