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Oct 30, 2024 · Stafford, VA

commonwealth district championship 2024

Willowmere Park · Historical 2024 results

Other years: 2025 · 2023 · 2022

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Boys 5000 Meter Run

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C

49 of 49 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +0.3 s course and conditions +24.4 s in-season fitness −24.1 sCourse constant 496.91 (497)Race constant 493.69 (494)

48 used anchors± 6.9 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 488.695Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 48 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 48, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Tyler Arnold · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Justin Rau · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Trevor Jenkins · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Isaac Nichols · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Jacob Korn · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Steven Niese · Colonial Forge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Ethan Govar · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  8. 8 Colin Espinoza · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Colton Palmer · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Cairo Pons · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  11. 11 Quinn O'Neill · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  12. 12 Ethan Lapier · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Bryce Nearman · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  14. 14 Nathan Tarbet · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  15. 15 Ethan Hacking · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  16. 16 Travis Downs · North Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Clark Holt · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  18. 18 Ethan Munoz · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7)
  19. 19 Gianni Lalota · North Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  20. 20 Micah Irwin · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  21. 21 Ian LeCain · North Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Colin Kraus · Brooke Point: New Balance RunningLane XC Championships (Dec 7) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · and 3 more
  23. 23 Rick Magallanes · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 7)
  24. 24 Jacob Rocha · Brooke Point: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 7)
  25. 25 John Simmons · Brooke Point: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19)
  26. 26 Lawrence Wilkenson · Brooke Point: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · and 1 more
  27. 27 Ryan Hawkins · Brooke Point: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · and 1 more
  28. 28 Jack Tetreault · Colonial Forge: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Great American XC Festival Meet Manager (Oct 4) · and 1 more
  29. 29 William McCann · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  30. 30 Nazar Havrylin · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  31. 31 Josiah Licona · Mountain View: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19)
  32. 32 Ian Nelson · Brooke Point: Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 7)
  33. 33 Brooks Hansen · Mountain View: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 7)
  34. 34 Tristan Hopkins · Mountain View: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 7)
  35. 35 Jordan Booth · North Stafford: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  36. 36 Connor Schwendeman · Brooke Point: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · and 1 more
  37. 37 Caden Cromwell · Mountain View: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19)
  38. 38 Dillon Jackson · North Stafford: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  39. 39 Alexander Beamon · Stafford: Pole Green XC Classic (Sep 7)
  40. 40 Thomas Stevens · North Stafford: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  41. 41 Mikhel Pulliam-Jordan · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  42. 42 Sebastian Cooke · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 14)
  43. 43 Chance Gillespie · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  44. 44 Braden Elchenko · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  45. 45 Caleb Bradshaw · North Stafford: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 7)
  46. 46 Diego Polacios · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6)
  47. 47 Aiden Zanella · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  48. 48 Laythan Fairchild · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 14)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 49 of 49 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Tyler ArnoldRiverbend · SRFinish 16:13.216:13.215:59.5168.9
2Justin RauRiverbend · SRFinish 16:13.316:13.315:59.7168.8
3Trevor JenkinsColonial Forge · JRFinish 16:37.916:37.916:23.9160.7
4Isaac NicholsStafford · JRFinish 16:50.216:50.216:36.1156.7
5Jacob KornRiverbend · JRFinish 17:02.817:02.816:48.4152.5
6Steven NieseColonial Forge · SRFinish 17:07.417:07.416:53.0151.0
7Ethan GovarStafford · JRFinish 17:18.017:18.017:03.5147.5
8Colin EspinozaMountain View · SOFinish 17:18.517:18.517:03.9147.4
9Colton PalmerColonial Forge · JRFinish 17:21.117:21.117:06.6146.5
10Cairo PonsMountain View · SOFinish 17:22.017:22.017:07.4146.2
11Quinn O'NeillStafford · SOFinish 17:24.117:24.117:09.5145.5
12Ethan LapierRiverbend · SRFinish 17:27.017:27.017:12.4144.6
13Bryce NearmanColonial Forge · SRFinish 17:27.317:27.317:12.7144.5
14Nathan TarbetRiverbend · SRFinish 17:29.817:29.817:15.1143.7
15Ethan HackingRiverbend · SOFinish 17:32.417:32.417:17.6142.8
16Travis DownsNorth Stafford · SOFinish 17:33.917:33.917:19.1142.3
17Clark HoltMountain View · JRFinish 17:34.717:34.717:19.9142.1
18Ethan MunozColonial Forge · SRFinish 17:35.317:35.317:20.5141.9
19Gianni LalotaNorth Stafford · JRFinish 17:36.717:36.717:21.9141.4
20Micah IrwinRiverbend · SOFinish 17:37.017:37.017:22.2141.3
21Ian LeCainNorth Stafford · SRFinish 17:37.617:37.617:22.8141.1
22Colin KrausBrooke Point · SOFinish 17:39.617:39.617:24.8140.4
23Rick MagallanesColonial Forge · SRFinish 17:47.317:47.317:32.4137.9
24Jacob RochaBrooke Point · JRFinish 17:47.317:47.317:32.4137.9
25John SimmonsBrooke Point · JRFinish 17:50.817:50.817:35.8136.8
26Lawrence WilkensonBrooke Point · SOFinish 18:01.018:01.017:45.9133.4
27Ryan HawkinsBrooke Point · SOFinish 18:07.218:07.217:52.0131.4
28Jack TetreaultColonial Forge · SRFinish 18:18.818:18.818:03.4127.6
29William McCannStafford · SOFinish 18:21.018:21.018:05.6126.8
30Nazar HavrylinStafford · SOFinish 18:34.318:34.318:18.7122.5
31Josiah LiconaMountain View · JRFinish 18:39.418:39.418:23.8120.8
32Ian NelsonBrooke Point · SRFinish 18:53.818:53.818:37.9116.1
33Brooks HansenMountain View · SOFinish 18:58.618:58.618:42.7114.5
34Tristan HopkinsMountain View · JRFinish 19:14.319:14.318:58.1109.3
35Jordan BoothNorth Stafford · SRFinish 19:16.219:16.219:00.0108.7
36Connor SchwendemanBrooke Point · FRFinish 19:34.119:34.119:17.7102.8
37Caden CromwellMountain View · SRFinish 19:46.519:46.519:29.998.7
38Dillon JacksonNorth Stafford · FRFinish 19:52.919:52.919:36.296.6
39Alexander BeamonStafford · SRFinish 20:08.720:08.719:51.891.4
40Thomas StevensNorth Stafford · SRFinish 20:32.420:32.420:15.183.7
41Mikhel Pulliam-JordanMassaponax · SRFinish 21:02.321:02.320:44.773.8
42Sebastian CookeMassaponax · FRFinish 21:10.821:10.820:53.071.0
43Chance GillespieMassaponax · SRFinish 21:15.921:15.920:58.169.3
44Braden ElchenkoStafford · JRFinish 21:22.221:22.221:04.367.3
45Caleb BradshawNorth Stafford · FRFinish 21:26.121:26.121:08.166.0
46Diego PolaciosMassaponax · SRFinish 21:27.821:27.821:09.765.4
47Aiden ZanellaMassaponax · SOFinish 21:48.421:48.421:30.158.7
48Laythan FairchildMassaponax · JRFinish 22:17.322:17.321:58.549.2
49Keynan JohnsonMassaponax · SOFinish 22:17.922:17.921:59.149.0

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls 5000 Meter Run

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C

45 of 45 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +6.4 s course and conditions +32.5 s in-season fitness −26.1 sCourse constant 507.04 (507)Race constant 501.13 (501)

44 used anchors± 6.3 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.063Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 44 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 44, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Kate Loescher · Colonial Forge: Foot Locker South Regional (Nov 30) · VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Sofia Visioni · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Olivia Morra · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Ava Pendley · Colonial Forge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · and 3 more
  5. 5 Lauren Ackerson · Colonial Forge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Caroline Christy · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Elizabeth Kitchens · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Aubrey Jones · Colonial Forge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · and 3 more
  9. 9 Alexis Barber · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Sierra Poorbaugh · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Ashleigh Menzenwerth · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Olivia Smith · Colonial Forge: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Great American XC Festival Meet Manager (Oct 4) · and 1 more
  13. 13 Susan Peterson · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  14. 14 Emily Wilson · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19)
  15. 15 Kayli Contreras · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19)
  16. 16 Sophia Lee · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 2 more
  17. 17 Cecilia Khatcheressian · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  18. 18 Scarlett Smith · Colonial Forge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · and 3 more
  19. 19 Alexis Rose · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 14)
  20. 20 Victoria Hall · Colonial Forge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · and 2 more
  21. 21 Alessia Grant · Mountain View: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 7)
  22. 22 Madeline Howell · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  23. 23 Olivia Priddy · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19)
  24. 24 Chloe Priddy · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  25. 25 Audrey Smith · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 14)
  26. 26 Adalynn Poteet · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  27. 27 Shanell Berry · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  28. 28 Hannah Freeman · Stafford: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  29. 29 Nadina Gregorie · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  30. 30 Quinn Clark · Brooke Point: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · and 1 more
  31. 31 Alaina Kim · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  32. 32 Gabriella Irish · Stafford: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · and 1 more
  33. 33 Grace Allen · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  34. 34 Michaela Holmes · Brooke Point: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · and 1 more
  35. 35 Madelyn Ellis · Massaponax: Region 5D XC Championship (Nov 6)
  36. 36 Deanna Saldana-Fitzgerald · Stafford: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  37. 37 Riley Springston · Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · and 1 more
  38. 38 Caitlyn Spencer · North Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · and 1 more
  39. 39 Jane Kulbeth · North Stafford: Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28)
  40. 40 Camilla Leiva · Brooke Point: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 7)
  41. 41 Micaela Feeney Moreno · North Stafford: Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 7)
  42. 42 Laura Vergara · Brooke Point: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · and 1 more
  43. 43 Twyla Keating · North Stafford: Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 7)
  44. 44 Rachel Dubyk · North Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 28) · and 1 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 45 of 45 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Kate LoescherColonial Forge · SRFinish 18:38.018:38.018:15.9126.8
2Sofia VisioniRiverbend · SRFinish 19:06.519:06.518:43.8117.4
3Olivia MorraRiverbend · SRFinish 19:07.619:07.618:44.9117.1
4Ava PendleyColonial Forge · JRFinish 19:31.919:31.919:08.7109.1
5Lauren AckersonColonial Forge · SOFinish 19:47.019:47.019:23.5104.2
6Caroline ChristyRiverbend · JRFinish 20:21.420:21.419:57.293.0
7Elizabeth KitchensMountain View · JRFinish 20:32.020:32.020:07.689.5
8Aubrey JonesColonial Forge · JRFinish 20:38.520:38.520:13.987.4
9Alexis BarberRiverbend · JRFinish 20:53.820:53.820:29.082.4
10Sierra PoorbaughStafford · SOFinish 21:00.421:00.420:35.480.3
11Ashleigh MenzenwerthRiverbend · SOFinish 21:20.021:20.020:54.773.8
12Olivia SmithColonial Forge · SOFinish 21:22.421:22.420:57.073.0
13Susan PetersonMountain View · JRFinish 21:26.721:26.721:01.371.6
14Emily WilsonMountain View · SOFinish 21:39.921:39.921:14.267.3
15Kayli ContrerasMountain View · FRFinish 21:41.021:41.021:15.267.0
16Sophia LeeRiverbend · SRFinish 21:42.021:42.021:16.266.6
17Cecilia KhatcheressianStafford · SOFinish 21:47.621:47.621:21.764.8
18Scarlett SmithColonial Forge · SRFinish 21:57.221:57.221:31.161.7
19Alexis RoseMassaponax · SRFinish 22:04.122:04.121:37.959.4
20Victoria HallColonial Forge · FRFinish 22:13.522:13.521:47.156.4
21Alessia GrantMountain View · SOFinish 22:30.222:30.222:03.550.9
22Madeline HowellRiverbend · SOFinish 22:51.822:51.822:24.643.9
23Olivia PriddyMassaponax · SRFinish 22:55.722:55.722:28.542.6
24Chloe PriddyMassaponax · SOFinish 23:10.623:10.622:43.137.7
25Audrey SmithMassaponax · SOFinish 23:16.523:16.522:48.835.8
26Adalynn PoteetStafford · SOFinish 23:16.523:16.522:48.935.8
27Shanell BerryMassaponax · SRFinish 23:35.223:35.223:07.229.7
28Hannah FreemanStafford · SOFinish 23:48.123:48.123:19.825.5
29Nadina GregorieMountain View · JRFinish 23:48.123:48.123:19.825.5
30Quinn ClarkBrooke Point · SOFinish 23:49.823:49.823:21.624.9
31Alaina KimMassaponax · SRFinish 24:10.024:10.023:41.318.3
32Gabriella IrishStafford · JRFinish 24:16.224:16.223:47.416.3
33Grace AllenMountain View · SOFinish 24:33.424:33.424:04.210.7
34Michaela HolmesBrooke Point · JRFinish 24:48.424:48.424:19.05.7
35Madelyn EllisMassaponax · Grade not recordedFinish 24:59.824:59.824:30.12.0
36Deanna Saldana-FitzgeraldStafford · SOFinish 25:00.625:00.624:30.91.7
37Riley SpringstonStafford · SOFinish 25:27.125:27.124:56.9—
38Caitlyn SpencerNorth Stafford · SRFinish 25:48.925:48.925:18.2—
39Jane KulbethNorth Stafford · JRFinish 25:57.925:57.925:27.1—
40Camilla LeivaBrooke Point · JRFinish 26:00.726:00.725:29.9—
41Micaela Feeney MorenoNorth Stafford · SOFinish 26:32.226:32.226:00.7—
42Laura VergaraBrooke Point · SRFinish 28:37.828:37.828:03.8—
43Twyla KeatingNorth Stafford · FRFinish 28:51.528:51.528:17.2—
44Rachel DubykNorth Stafford · JRFinish 30:14.830:14.829:38.9—
45Emma HawkinsBrooke Point · SRFinish 33:45.333:45.333:05.2—

commonwealth district championship 2024, Oct 30, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.