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Oct 24, 2023 · Stafford, VA

Commonwealth District Championship

Willowmere Park · Historical 2023 results

Other years: 2025 · 2024 · 2022

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Commonwealth District Championship - 10/24/2023 Willowmere Park, Stafford, VA High School Boys 5000 Meter Run

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B

47 of 47 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −9.3 s course and conditions +12.1 s in-season fitness −21.3 sCourse constant 493.87 (494)Race constant 492.12 (492)

46 used anchors± 4.7 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.934Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 46 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 46, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Brady Brennan · Brooke Point: RunningLane Cross Country Championships (Dec 2) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · and 4 more
  2. 2 Tyler Arnold · Riverbend: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Cameron Sidebotham · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Justin Rau · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Ethan Lapier · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Steven Niese · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  7. 7 Charles Schilling · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Ethan Govar · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  9. 9 Diego Pons · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  10. 10 Ian Bollinger · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  11. 11 Joseph Pittman · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Ethan Munoz · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Trevor Jenkins · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Jacob Korn · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  15. 15 Darren Hill · Brooke Point: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  16. 16 Xavier Marcano · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Ethan Hudjohn · North Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  18. 18 Nathan Tarbet · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Ethan Hacking · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  20. 20 Ian LeCain · North Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  21. 21 Ian Nelson · Brooke Point: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Landon Mills · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  23. 23 Colin Kraus · Brooke Point: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  24. 24 Quinn O'Neill · Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  25. 25 Jacob Calandria · Colonial Forge: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
  26. 26 Colin Espinoza · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  27. 27 Tristan Hopkins · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  28. 28 Isaac Nichols · Stafford: Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · Woodberry Forest 47th Annual XC Invitational (Sep 22) · and 1 more
  29. 29 Gabe Johnson · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  30. 30 Jack Tetreault · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  31. 31 Jordan Booth · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  32. 32 Miguel Palacios · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  33. 33 Logan Ramos · Brooke Point: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  34. 34 Nazar Havrylin · Stafford: Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · Woodberry Forest 47th Annual XC Invitational (Sep 22) · and 1 more
  35. 35 Alexander Beamon · Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  36. 36 Lawrence Wilkenson · Brooke Point: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
  37. 37 John Wheeler · Mountain View: Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 30) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  38. 38 Thomas Stevens · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · and 1 more
  39. 39 Braden Elchenko · Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  40. 41 Ryan Hawkins · Brooke Point: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 1 more
  41. 42 Benjamin Meyers · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  42. 43 Laythan Fairchild · Massaponax: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16)
  43. 44 Makai Garcia · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  44. 45 Alex Armkneckt · Massaponax: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16)
  45. 46 Chance Gillespie · Massaponax: Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16)
  46. 47 Joshua Dunn · Massaponax: Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 47 of 47 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Brady BrennanBrooke Point · JRFinish 15:30.815:30.815:25.2181.5
2Tyler ArnoldRiverbend · JRFinish 15:48.015:48.015:42.3175.8
3Cameron SidebothamColonial Forge · SRFinish 16:11.816:11.816:05.9168.0
4Justin RauRiverbend · JRFinish 16:36.716:36.716:30.7159.7
5Ethan LapierRiverbend · JRFinish 16:52.116:52.116:46.0154.6
6Steven NieseColonial Forge · JRFinish 16:52.116:52.116:46.0154.6
7Charles SchillingMountain View · SRFinish 16:58.416:58.416:52.2152.5
8Ethan GovarStafford · SOFinish 17:00.417:00.416:54.2151.9
9Diego PonsMountain View · SRFinish 17:13.417:13.417:07.1147.6
10Ian BollingerMountain View · SRFinish 17:14.417:14.417:08.1147.2
11Joseph PittmanStafford · SRFinish 17:18.917:18.917:12.7145.7
12Ethan MunozColonial Forge · JRFinish 17:21.517:21.517:15.2144.9
13Trevor JenkinsColonial Forge · SOFinish 17:27.617:27.617:21.3142.8
14Jacob KornRiverbend · SOFinish 17:34.217:34.217:27.8140.7
15Darren HillBrooke Point · SRFinish 17:41.117:41.117:34.7138.4
16Xavier MarcanoMountain View · SRFinish 17:41.617:41.617:35.2138.2
17Ethan HudjohnNorth Stafford · SRFinish 17:42.717:42.717:36.2137.9
18Nathan TarbetRiverbend · JRFinish 17:45.917:45.917:39.5136.8
19Ethan HackingRiverbend · FRFinish 17:48.617:48.617:42.1135.9
20Ian LeCainNorth Stafford · JRFinish 17:51.617:51.617:45.1134.9
21Ian NelsonBrooke Point · JRFinish 17:54.517:54.517:48.0133.9
22Landon MillsColonial Forge · SRFinish 17:57.717:57.717:51.1132.9
23Colin KrausBrooke Point · FRFinish 18:00.318:00.317:53.7132.0
24Quinn O'NeillStafford · FRFinish 18:02.018:02.017:55.5131.4
25Jacob CalandriaColonial Forge · SOFinish 18:09.518:09.518:02.9129.0
26Colin EspinozaMountain View · FRFinish 18:17.818:17.818:11.2126.2
27Tristan HopkinsMountain View · SOFinish 18:27.718:27.718:21.0122.9
28Isaac NicholsStafford · SOFinish 18:28.818:28.818:22.1122.6
29Gabe JohnsonRiverbend · SRFinish 18:41.918:41.918:35.1118.2
30Jack TetreaultColonial Forge · JRFinish 18:46.418:46.418:39.6116.7
31Jordan BoothNorth Stafford · JRFinish 18:48.418:48.418:41.6116.1
32Miguel PalaciosNorth Stafford · FRFinish 18:49.018:49.018:42.2115.9
33Logan RamosBrooke Point · SRFinish 18:59.818:59.818:52.9112.3
34Nazar HavrylinStafford · FRFinish 19:09.419:09.419:02.4109.1
35Alexander BeamonStafford · JRFinish 19:31.819:31.819:24.7101.7
36Lawrence WilkensonBrooke Point · FRFinish 19:39.019:39.019:31.899.3
37John WheelerMountain View · SRFinish 19:43.119:43.119:36.097.9
38Thomas StevensNorth Stafford · JRFinish 19:44.819:44.819:37.797.4
39Braden ElchenkoStafford · SOFinish 20:01.320:01.319:54.091.9
40Diego PolaciosMassaponax · JRFinish 20:03.820:03.819:56.591.1
41Ryan HawkinsBrooke Point · FRFinish 20:05.020:05.019:57.790.7
42Benjamin MeyersNorth Stafford · SRFinish 20:41.920:41.920:34.378.5
43Laythan FairchildMassaponax · SOFinish 20:43.320:43.320:35.878.0
44Makai GarciaNorth Stafford · SOFinish 20:49.120:49.120:41.576.1
45Alex ArmknecktMassaponax · SRFinish 21:28.421:28.421:20.663.1
46Chance GillespieMassaponax · JRFinish 21:49.221:49.221:41.356.2
47Joshua DunnMassaponax · JRFinish 25:56.625:56.625:47.1—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run

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B

47 of 47 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −10.8 s course and conditions +12.1 s in-season fitness −22.9 sCourse constant 498.58 (499)Race constant 496.65 (497)

46 used anchors± 3.4 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 46 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 46, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Kate Loescher · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Great American XC Festival (Oct 6) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Madelyn Anderson · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Lauren Ackerson · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  4. 4 Sofia Visioni · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Olivia Morra · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  6. 6 Shae Reynolds · Brooke Point: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Elizabeth Kitchens · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Rochelle Gary · Brooke Point: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Elise Collette · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Ava Pendley · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Sierra Poorbaugh · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Madison Somerville · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  13. 13 Susan Peterson · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Alessia Grant · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  15. 15 Emily Burnette · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  16. 16 Kate Shoaf · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
  17. 17 Alexis Rose · Massaponax: Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16)
  18. 18 Madeline Howell · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Alexis Barber · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  20. 20 Amalay Ghosheh · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  21. 21 Cecilia Khatcheressian · Stafford: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Sophia Lee · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Chloe Priddy · Massaponax: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16)
  24. 24 Adalynn Poteet · Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Woodberry Forest 47th Annual XC Invitational (Sep 22) · and 1 more
  25. 25 Emily Wilson · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  26. 26 Chrysanthi Euripides · Massaponax: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16)
  27. 27 Olivia Smith · Colonial Forge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  28. 28 Kaylen Stonebreaker · Riverbend: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
  29. 29 Michaela Holmes · Brooke Point: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  30. 30 Gabriella Irish · Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  31. 31 Emily Hicks · Colonial Forge: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Great American XC Festival (Oct 6) · and 3 more
  32. 32 Alaina Kim · Massaponax: Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16)
  33. 33 Oumi Dieng · Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  34. 34 Nadina Gregorie · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 1 more
  35. 35 Allison Downs · North Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  36. 36 Emily White · Stafford: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  37. 37 Iman Et-Tarhbalouti · North Stafford: Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9) · Hood College HS Invitational (Sep 2)
  38. 38 Caitlyn Spencer · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 1 more
  39. 39 Carrie Roy · Brooke Point: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  40. 41 Emma Clark · Brooke Point: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 1 more
  41. 42 Elisabeth Dubyk · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  42. 43 Quinn Clark · Brooke Point: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  43. 44 Sarah Moffo · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  44. 45 Emily Krebs · Brooke Point: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30) · and 1 more
  45. 46 Celeste Rubio-Medina · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Patrick Henry Invitational (Sep 30)
  46. 47 Rachel Dubyk · North Stafford: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 47 of 47 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Kate LoescherColonial Forge · JRFinish 18:36.218:36.218:29.9124.2
2Madelyn AndersonMountain View · SRFinish 19:10.819:10.819:04.4112.7
3Lauren AckersonColonial Forge · FRFinish 19:46.519:46.519:39.8100.9
4Sofia VisioniRiverbend · JRFinish 19:55.919:55.919:49.197.8
5Olivia MorraRiverbend · JRFinish 20:11.220:11.220:04.492.7
6Shae ReynoldsBrooke Point · SRFinish 20:13.020:13.020:06.192.1
7Elizabeth KitchensMountain View · SOFinish 20:14.420:14.420:07.591.7
8Rochelle GaryBrooke Point · FRFinish 20:14.820:14.820:07.991.5
9Elise ColletteMountain View · SRFinish 20:35.120:35.120:28.184.8
10Ava PendleyColonial Forge · SOFinish 20:48.020:48.020:41.080.5
11Sierra PoorbaughStafford · FRFinish 20:54.020:54.020:46.978.5
12Madison SomervilleColonial Forge · JRFinish 21:02.421:02.420:55.375.7
13Susan PetersonMountain View · SOFinish 21:02.721:02.720:55.675.6
14Alessia GrantMountain View · FRFinish 21:09.521:09.521:02.473.4
15Emily BurnetteStafford · SRFinish 21:10.721:10.721:03.673.0
16Kate ShoafColonial Forge · SRFinish 21:13.421:13.421:06.372.1
17Alexis RoseMassaponax · JRFinish 21:15.721:15.721:08.571.3
18Madeline HowellRiverbend · FRFinish 21:24.521:24.521:17.368.4
19Alexis BarberRiverbend · SOFinish 21:25.321:25.321:18.168.1
20Amalay GhoshehRiverbend · JRFinish 21:33.321:33.321:26.065.5
21Cecilia KhatcheressianStafford · FRFinish 21:33.521:33.521:26.265.4
22Sophia LeeRiverbend · JRFinish 21:54.221:54.221:46.858.6
23Chloe PriddyMassaponax · FRFinish 21:56.121:56.121:48.757.9
24Adalynn PoteetStafford · FRFinish 22:08.922:08.922:01.453.7
25Emily WilsonMountain View · FRFinish 22:10.322:10.322:02.853.2
26Chrysanthi EuripidesMassaponax · JRFinish 22:17.322:17.322:09.850.9
27Olivia SmithColonial Forge · FRFinish 22:33.222:33.222:25.645.6
28Kaylen StonebreakerRiverbend · SRFinish 22:47.522:47.522:39.840.9
29Michaela HolmesBrooke Point · SOFinish 22:52.122:52.122:44.439.4
30Gabriella IrishStafford · SOFinish 22:54.422:54.422:46.638.6
31Emily HicksColonial Forge · JRFinish 22:57.022:57.022:49.237.8
32Alaina KimMassaponax · JRFinish 22:58.122:58.122:50.337.4
33Oumi DiengStafford · SOFinish 23:03.923:03.922:56.135.4
34Nadina GregorieMountain View · SOFinish 23:09.823:09.823:02.033.5
35Allison DownsNorth Stafford · JRFinish 23:27.923:27.923:19.927.5
36Emily WhiteStafford · SOFinish 23:30.023:30.023:22.126.8
37Iman Et-TarhbaloutiNorth Stafford · SOFinish 23:56.523:56.523:48.518.0
38Caitlyn SpencerNorth Stafford · JRFinish 24:07.024:07.023:58.914.5
39Carrie RoyBrooke Point · Grade not recordedFinish 24:21.924:21.924:13.79.6
40Madelyn EllisMassaponax · SRFinish 24:22.724:22.724:14.49.4
41Emma ClarkBrooke Point · SRFinish 24:22.924:22.924:14.69.3
42Elisabeth DubykNorth Stafford · SRFinish 24:27.224:27.224:18.97.9
43Quinn ClarkBrooke Point · FRFinish 24:40.224:40.224:31.93.5
44Sarah MoffoNorth Stafford · FRFinish 24:44.424:44.424:36.02.2
45Emily KrebsBrooke Point · SRFinish 25:41.525:41.525:32.8—
46Celeste Rubio-MedinaNorth Stafford · SRFinish 29:11.429:11.429:01.5—
47Rachel DubykNorth Stafford · SOFinish 31:08.431:08.430:57.9—

Commonwealth District Championship, Oct 24, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.