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Oct 26, 2022 · Grottoes, VA

Valley District Championships

Town Park · Historical 2022 results

Other years: 2026 · 2025 · 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Valley District Championships Town Park, Grottes, VA - 10/26/2022 Boys Championship 5k

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A

35 of 35 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −26.7 s course and conditions −4.2 s in-season fitness −22.5 sCourse constant 490.49 (490)Race constant 486.70 (487)

35 used anchors± 2.5 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.973Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 35 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 35, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Russell Kramer · Spotswood: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Tristan Yoder · Broadway: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Andrew McMichael · Harrisonburg: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Peyton Kenee · Spotswood: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Evan Roney · Rockbridge County: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · adidas XC Challenge (Sep 17) · and 1 more
  6. 6 CJ Hulleman · Harrisonburg: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Bunte Kite · Spotswood: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Ryley Tinnell · Broadway: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Andrew Brannon · Rockbridge County: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  10. 10 Niranjan Aradhey · Harrisonburg: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Brian Kendall · Rockbridge County: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  12. 12 Jayden Kerr · Broadway: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  13. 13 Kenneth Salmeron · Spotswood: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  14. 14 Kaedon Howley · Harrisonburg: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  15. 15 Matthew Rush · Harrisonburg: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Rhett Armentrout · Broadway: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Isaac Bradshaw · Spotswood: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  18. 18 Troy Kramer · Spotswood: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Christian Souders · Turner Ashby: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  20. 20 Maddox Jordan · Rockbridge County: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  21. 21 Aiden Morgan · Turner Ashby: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  22. 22 Jaiden Santos Nguyen · Broadway: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Alexander Miller · Rockbridge County: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 3 more
  24. 24 Ezekiel Mohr · Rockbridge County: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  25. 25 Breylon Miller · Broadway: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  26. 26 Kiernan Sheahan · Spotswood: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · VTCA Fall Classic (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  27. 27 Trevor Inouye · Harrisonburg: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  28. 28 Jordan Imler · Rockbridge County: Metro XC Championships (Oct 19) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 3 more
  29. 29 Daniel Rogers · Turner Ashby: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  30. 30 Caleb Wyant · Broadway: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 3 more
  31. 31 Owen Tompkins · Harrisonburg: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  32. 32 Cooper Bair · Turner Ashby: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  33. 33 Drew Teter · Turner Ashby: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  34. 34 Evan Kulp · Turner Ashby: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  35. 35 Ryan Larson · Turner Ashby: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 35 of 35 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Russell KramerSpotswood · SRFinish 16:25.216:25.216:33.8158.7
2Tristan YoderBroadway · SOFinish 16:41.616:41.616:50.4153.2
3Andrew McMichaelHarrisonburg · JRFinish 16:54.416:54.417:03.3148.9
4Peyton KeneeSpotswood · SOFinish 16:56.616:56.617:05.5148.1
5Evan RoneyRockbridge County · SRFinish 17:21.717:21.717:30.8139.7
6CJ HullemanHarrisonburg · JRFinish 17:38.417:38.417:47.7134.1
7Bunte KiteSpotswood · JRFinish 17:43.217:43.217:52.5132.5
8Ryley TinnellBroadway · SRFinish 17:45.817:45.817:55.1131.6
9Andrew BrannonRockbridge County · SRFinish 17:47.817:47.817:57.1130.9
10Niranjan AradheyHarrisonburg · SRFinish 17:59.017:59.018:08.4127.2
11Brian KendallRockbridge County · SRFinish 18:05.818:05.818:15.3124.9
12Jayden KerrBroadway · SRFinish 18:12.618:12.618:22.2122.6
13Kenneth SalmeronSpotswood · JRFinish 18:21.118:21.118:30.7119.7
14Kaedon HowleyHarrisonburg · SOFinish 18:24.018:24.018:33.7118.8
15Matthew RushHarrisonburg · JRFinish 18:26.318:26.318:36.0118.0
16Rhett ArmentroutBroadway · JRFinish 18:27.018:27.018:36.7117.7
17Isaac BradshawSpotswood · FRFinish 18:33.118:33.118:42.8115.7
18Troy KramerSpotswood · SOFinish 18:43.118:43.118:52.9112.3
19Christian SoudersTurner Ashby · SRFinish 18:45.018:45.018:54.8111.7
20Maddox JordanRockbridge County · JRFinish 18:46.518:46.518:56.4111.2
21Aiden MorganTurner Ashby · SOFinish 18:47.618:47.618:57.5110.8
22Jaiden Santos NguyenBroadway · SOFinish 18:48.618:48.618:58.5110.5
23Alexander MillerRockbridge County · SOFinish 18:53.818:53.819:03.7108.7
24Ezekiel MohrRockbridge County · SRFinish 18:57.918:57.919:07.9107.4
25Breylon MillerBroadway · SRFinish 18:58.518:58.519:08.5107.2
26Kiernan SheahanSpotswood · FRFinish 19:01.619:01.619:11.6106.1
27Trevor InouyeHarrisonburg · SRFinish 19:01.919:01.919:11.9106.0
28Jordan ImlerRockbridge County · JRFinish 19:24.519:24.519:34.798.4
29Daniel RogersTurner Ashby · SRFinish 19:26.819:26.819:37.097.6
30Caleb WyantBroadway · SOFinish 19:34.819:34.819:45.194.9
31Owen TompkinsHarrisonburg · SRFinish 19:42.619:42.619:52.992.3
32Cooper BairTurner Ashby · SOFinish 19:44.119:44.119:54.591.8
33Drew TeterTurner Ashby · SRFinish 20:02.220:02.220:12.785.7
34Evan KulpTurner Ashby · SRFinish 20:05.820:05.820:16.484.5
35Ryan LarsonTurner Ashby · JRFinish 20:26.720:26.720:37.477.5

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls Championship 5k

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B

27 of 27 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −25.6 s course and conditions −2.3 s in-season fitness −23.4 sCourse constant 492.15 (492)Race constant 489.25 (489)

26 used anchors± 3.4 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 26 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 26, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Deena Ludtke · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  2. 2 Ashland Dickel · Spotswood: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Marika Dickel · Spotswood: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Megan Timmes · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  5. 5 Nicole Black · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  6. 6 Anna Dabaghyan · Spotswood: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Kate Ruebke · Spotswood: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  8. 8 Grace Rolon · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  9. 9 Magdalena Lantz-Trissel · Turner Ashby: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Elizabeth McClung · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Dorothy Lewis · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  12. 12 Brooke Eichelberger · Rockbridge County: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  13. 13 Abby Kauffman · Harrisonburg: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  14. 14 Natalie Watts · Broadway: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8)
  15. 15 Ty Brino-Dean · Harrisonburg: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3)
  16. 16 Olivia Eberly · Harrisonburg: VHSL 5A Region D Championships (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 2 more
  17. 17 Eliana Teshome · Turner Ashby: Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  18. 18 Matilda Bunn · Harrisonburg: Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  19. 19 Sequoia Hall · Harrisonburg: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  20. 20 Hannah Showman · Broadway: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Alleghany XC Invitational (Sep 24)
  21. 21 Ruth Rascoe · Spotswood: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Laurel Fitzgerald · Turner Ashby: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  23. 24 Pria Dua · Spotswood: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Region 3C Championship (Nov 1) · and 1 more
  24. 25 Jessica Brumfield · Turner Ashby: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  25. 26 Natalie Johnston · Turner Ashby: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
  26. 27 Aleah Childress · Turner Ashby: Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 10)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 27 of 27 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Deena LudtkeRockbridge County · JRFinish 20:03.120:03.120:11.488.7
2Ashland DickelSpotswood · SOFinish 20:12.820:12.820:21.285.4
3Marika DickelSpotswood · SOFinish 20:12.920:12.920:21.385.4
4Megan TimmesRockbridge County · SRFinish 20:35.620:35.620:44.277.7
5Nicole BlackRockbridge County · JRFinish 20:49.020:49.020:57.673.3
6Anna DabaghyanSpotswood · SRFinish 20:55.120:55.121:03.871.2
7Kate RuebkeSpotswood · JRFinish 21:00.721:00.721:09.469.3
8Grace RolonRockbridge County · SRFinish 21:05.721:05.721:14.567.6
9Magdalena Lantz-TrisselTurner Ashby · SOFinish 21:32.621:32.621:41.558.6
10Elizabeth McClungRockbridge County · SRFinish 21:34.321:34.321:43.358.0
11Dorothy LewisRockbridge County · FRFinish 21:35.021:35.021:44.057.8
12Brooke EichelbergerRockbridge County · SOFinish 22:26.022:26.022:35.340.7
13Abby KauffmanHarrisonburg · SRFinish 22:58.622:58.623:08.129.8
14Natalie WattsBroadway · SRFinish 23:13.223:13.223:22.824.9
15Ty Brino-DeanHarrisonburg · SRFinish 23:24.323:24.323:34.021.1
16Olivia EberlyHarrisonburg · JRFinish 24:00.624:00.624:10.68.9
17Eliana TeshomeTurner Ashby · SRFinish 24:19.524:19.524:29.62.6
18Matilda BunnHarrisonburg · FRFinish 24:30.624:30.624:40.8—
19Sequoia HallHarrisonburg · SOFinish 25:02.925:02.925:13.3—
20Hannah ShowmanBroadway · FRFinish 25:06.025:06.025:16.4—
21Ruth RascoeSpotswood · FRFinish 25:30.725:30.725:41.3—
22Laurel FitzgeraldTurner Ashby · FRFinish 25:43.525:43.525:54.2—
23Maggie OlahTurner Ashby · SOFinish 26:30.026:30.026:41.0—
24Pria DuaSpotswood · JRFinish 27:32.427:32.427:43.8—
25Jessica BrumfieldTurner Ashby · JRFinish 30:07.830:07.830:20.3—
26Natalie JohnstonTurner Ashby · FRFinish 30:08.130:08.130:20.6—
27Aleah ChildressTurner Ashby · FRFinish 31:51.931:51.932:05.1—

Valley District Championships, Oct 26, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.