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Oct 18, 2023 · Danville, VA

Greater Danville Metro XC Championship

Anglers Park · Historical 2023 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 132.8), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

1 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Greater Danville Metro XC Championship - 10/18/2023 Anglers Park, Danville, VA High School Girls 5000 Meter Run

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B

85 of 85 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −39.6 s course and conditions −17.3 s in-season fitness −22.3 sCourse constant 486.29 (486)Race constant 483.89 (484)

71 used anchors± 5.7 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 71 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: the first 50 of 71, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Carol-Anne Garrett · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  2. 2 Sienna Bailey · Bassett: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · and 5 more
  3. 3 Madison Martin · Appomattox County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Maya Herndon · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Lauralee Spickard · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Mariam Robindolph · Appomattox County: VHSL Class 2 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · and 1 more
  7. 7 Cassie Currin · Mecklenburg County: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Natalie Adams · Mecklenburg County: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Ava Wray · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  10. 10 Anna Tucker · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Hagan Stone XC Classic (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  11. 11 Olivia Hayes · Mecklenburg County: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Lillian Beatty · Mecklenburg County: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  13. 13 Kayleigh Spencer · Bassett: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Brooklynn Jackson · Mecklenburg County: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  15. 15 Helen Peters · Mecklenburg County: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  16. 16 Isabella Beatty · Mecklenburg County: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Marissa Perry · Appomattox County: VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16)
  18. 18 Krystie Eugene · Galileo: Hagan Stone XC Classic (Oct 7) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Natalie Owen · Galileo: VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  20. 20 Clarissa Martinez-Olguin · Bassett: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 4 more
  21. 21 Jasmine Espana · Bassett: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 4 more
  22. 22 Jane Wu · Chatham Hall: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3)
  23. 23 Braelyn Wilson · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  24. 24 Camryn Snead · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  25. 25 Nova Almquist · Galileo: Hagan Stone XC Classic (Oct 7)
  26. 26 Aleyssia Thompson · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  27. 27 Sophia Markowitz · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  28. 28 Eden Shaughnessy · Halifax County: Region 4D Championships (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 1 more
  29. 29 Julie Goodman · Appomattox County: VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16) · and 1 more
  30. 30 Cherish Adkins · Tunstall: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  31. 31 Crystal Lopez · Bassett: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 4 more
  32. 32 Zuri Assam · Chatham Hall: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 9) · BRAC Cross Country Championships (Nov 3)
  33. 33 Viki Spong · Chatham: VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · Southside XC Invitational (Aug 23)
  34. 34 Kayleigh Durham · Tunstall: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  35. 35 Madison Walton · Tunstall: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  36. 36 Samantha Van Opstal · Galileo: Hagan Stone XC Classic (Oct 7) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 2 more
  37. 37 April Jordan · Tunstall: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  38. 38 Abigail Merricks · Gretna: VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · Southside XC Invitational (Aug 23)
  39. 39 Harper Lovelace · Tunstall: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  40. 40 Kira Thomas · Tunstall: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 2 more
  41. 41 Kate Griffin · Mecklenburg County: 10th Annual Bengal Clash at the River (Aug 31)
  42. 42 Katherine Evans · Dan River: VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · Southside XC Invitational (Aug 23)
  43. 43 Abigail Spickard · William Campbell: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  44. 44 Brittany Cruz · Bassett: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · and 4 more
  45. 45 Parker Boon · Chatham: VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1)
  46. 46 Lidia Peralta Marte · George Washington: Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25)
  47. 47 Katie Miner · Bassett: Piedmont District XC Championships (Oct 25) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  48. 48 Bella Perry · Appomattox County: VHSL 2A Region C Championships (Nov 1) · Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 16)
  49. 49 Karlee Shivley · Bassett: VHSL Region 3D Championship (Nov 1) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  50. 51 Lorelei Wray · Galileo: Hagan Stone XC Classic (Oct 7) · Southside XC Invitational (Aug 23)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 85 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Carol-Anne GarrettGalileo · SRFinish 18:57.218:57.219:18.9107.9
2Sienna BaileyBassett · SRFinish 19:27.619:27.619:49.997.5
3Madison MartinAppomattox County · JRFinish 20:54.220:54.221:18.168.1
4Maya HerndonGalileo · JRFinish 21:20.721:20.721:45.159.1
5Lauralee SpickardWilliam Campbell · SOFinish 21:23.821:23.821:48.258.1
6Mariam RobindolphAppomattox County · SRFinish 21:36.221:36.222:00.853.9
7Cassie CurrinMecklenburg County · JRFinish 22:36.822:36.823:02.633.3
8Natalie AdamsMecklenburg County · FRFinish 22:47.422:47.423:13.429.7
9Ava WrayGalileo · SRFinish 23:07.623:07.623:34.022.8
10Anna TuckerGalileo · SRFinish 23:41.123:41.124:08.111.5
11Olivia HayesMecklenburg County · JRFinish 23:53.123:53.124:20.47.4
12Lillian BeattyMecklenburg County · FRFinish 23:53.823:53.824:21.17.1
13Kayleigh SpencerBassett · SOFinish 23:56.523:56.524:23.86.2
14Brooklynn JacksonMecklenburg County · FRFinish 24:07.124:07.124:34.72.6
15Helen PetersMecklenburg County · FRFinish 24:09.024:09.024:36.62.0
16Isabella BeattyMecklenburg County · SRFinish 24:11.124:11.124:38.71.3
17Marissa PerryAppomattox County · SRFinish 24:32.424:32.425:00.4—
18Krystie EugeneGalileo · SOFinish 24:34.924:34.925:03.0—
19Natalie OwenGalileo · SRFinish 24:36.624:36.625:04.7—
20Clarissa Martinez-OlguinBassett · JRFinish 24:37.324:37.325:05.4—
21Jasmine EspanaBassett · JRFinish 24:43.524:43.525:11.7—
22Jane WuChatham Hall · SOFinish 24:51.724:51.725:20.1—
23Braelyn WilsonWilliam Campbell · SRFinish 25:01.225:01.225:29.8—
24Camryn SneadGalileo · FRFinish 25:03.525:03.525:32.1—
25Nova AlmquistGalileo · FRFinish 25:05.025:05.025:33.6—
26Aleyssia ThompsonGalileo · SRFinish 25:06.125:06.125:34.8—
27Sophia MarkowitzGalileo · JRFinish 25:06.225:06.225:34.9—
28Eden ShaughnessyHalifax County · FRFinish 25:11.325:11.325:40.1—
29Julie GoodmanAppomattox County · JRFinish 25:16.525:16.525:45.4—
30Cherish AdkinsTunstall · SOFinish 25:28.525:28.525:57.6—
31Crystal LopezBassett · SRFinish 25:34.025:34.026:03.2—
32Zuri AssamChatham Hall · JRFinish 25:43.325:43.326:12.7—
33Viki SpongChatham · SOFinish 25:44.025:44.026:13.4—
34Kayleigh DurhamTunstall · SOFinish 26:21.626:21.626:51.7—
35Madison WaltonTunstall · SRFinish 26:39.326:39.327:09.8—
36Samantha Van OpstalGalileo · FRFinish 26:41.926:41.927:12.4—
37April JordanTunstall · SOFinish 26:45.026:45.027:15.5—
38Abigail MerricksGretna · JRFinish 26:47.126:47.127:17.7—
39Harper LovelaceTunstall · FRFinish 26:48.426:48.427:19.1—
40Kira ThomasTunstall · JRFinish 26:50.526:50.527:21.2—
41Kate GriffinMecklenburg County · SOFinish 26:52.326:52.327:23.0—
42Katherine EvansDan River · FRFinish 26:54.026:54.027:24.8—
43Abigail SpickardWilliam Campbell · SRFinish 26:57.826:57.827:28.7—
44Brittany CruzBassett · JRFinish 27:06.627:06.627:37.6—
45Parker BoonChatham · SOFinish 27:18.127:18.127:49.3—
46Lidia Peralta MarteGeorge Washington · SOFinish 27:19.527:19.527:50.7—
47Katie MinerBassett · JRFinish 27:43.527:43.528:15.2—
48Bella PerryAppomattox County · SOFinish 27:43.727:43.728:15.4—
49Karlee ShivleyBassett · JRFinish 27:47.427:47.428:19.1—
50Rachel BeckerMecklenburg County · JRFinish 27:51.327:51.328:23.2—
Show all 85 results (35 more)Showing all 85 results · hide rows 51–85
Girls results, rows 51 to 85 of 85
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Lorelei WrayGalileo · SOFinish 27:53.327:53.328:25.2—
52Clara FallsChatham Hall · FRFinish 28:08.028:08.028:40.2—
53Angie RoldanBassett · SRFinish 28:12.228:12.228:44.4—
54Avalyn EmersonTunstall · SOFinish 28:15.028:15.028:47.3—
55Hanna DaubertGretna · FRFinish 28:20.528:20.528:52.9—
56Emma McKinneyHalifax County · SOFinish 28:31.928:31.929:04.5—
57Briana QuinteroTunstall · JRFinish 28:34.228:34.229:06.9—
58Genesis ZavalaMecklenburg County · SOFinish 28:35.828:35.829:08.5—
59Tyla BranchChatham Hall · SOFinish 28:49.328:49.329:22.3—
60Sophia HurstChatham Hall · JRFinish 28:50.828:50.829:23.8—
61Claudia SmithTunstall · SRFinish 29:14.429:14.429:47.8—
62Sarah Beth GarrettGalileo · SRFinish 29:26.329:26.330:00.0—
63Carolina WheelerTunstall · SOFinish 29:35.429:35.430:09.3—
64Mckenna MullMecklenburg County · FRFinish 29:50.629:50.630:24.7—
65Fernanda Castellanos SanchezGeorge Washington · SOFinish 29:51.229:51.230:25.3—
66Sophia LiGalileo · SOFinish 29:58.729:58.730:33.0—
67Madeleine JonesTunstall · SOFinish 29:58.929:58.930:33.2—
68Keeli MillsMecklenburg County · JRFinish 30:11.330:11.330:45.8—
69Alexis WilkersonMecklenburg County · JRFinish 30:11.830:11.830:46.3—
70Jaretzy Martinez-HernandezBassett · SRFinish 30:28.430:28.431:03.3—
71Alyssa RobertsonChatham · SRFinish 30:29.730:29.731:04.5—
72Lydia DavisTunstall · SOFinish 30:35.630:35.631:10.5—
73Charlotte ZagolCarlisle School · SOFinish 30:51.930:51.931:27.1—
74Emma KruggelTunstall · JRFinish 30:56.330:56.331:31.6—
75McCall HollieTunstall · SOFinish 31:05.131:05.131:40.6—
76Lauren LipscombMecklenburg County · SOFinish 31:11.431:11.431:47.0—
77Kiernan HiteMecklenburg County · SRFinish 31:13.731:13.731:49.4—
78Hannah LeaderDan River · FRFinish 31:15.731:15.731:51.4—
79Jolean UptonMecklenburg County · JRFinish 31:38.531:38.532:14.6—
80Sarah MerricksTunstall · SOFinish 31:45.531:45.532:21.8—
81Jordin BrooksTunstall · JRFinish 31:59.531:59.532:36.1—
82Hannah VickMecklenburg County · SOFinish 32:37.132:37.133:14.3—
83Madison YorkMecklenburg County · FRFinish 33:10.933:10.933:48.8—
84Mone SaitoChatham Hall · FRFinish 37:50.637:50.638:33.8—
85Janette MarianoMecklenburg County · SRFinish 38:09.338:09.338:52.9—

Greater Danville Metro XC Championship, Oct 18, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.