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Oct 7, 2023 · Pleasant Garden, NC

Hagan Stone XC Classic

Hagan Stone Park · Historical 2023 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 168.5), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

2 of 4 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls 5k Run High School Finals

C

71 of 71 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −19.9 s course and conditions −11.0 s in-season fitness −8.9 sCourse constant 489.66 (490)Race constant 490.34 (490)

22 used anchors± 7.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 22 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. This race shares part of its adjustment with the other divisions run here on the same course and day. Listed here: all 22, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Carol-Anne Garrett · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  2. 2 Lorraine Hunter · Science Hill: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · Becky Selfe Invitational (Sep 2)
  3. 6 Maya Herndon · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  4. 7 Isabella Candee · Science Hill: Becky Selfe Invitational (Sep 2)
  5. 9 Sunny Eorgan · Science Hill: Becky Selfe Invitational (Sep 2)
  6. 10 Raven Richardson · Gray's Creek: adidas XC Challenge (Sep 16)
  7. 12 Faith Thomas · Southwest Guilford: 39th Annual Greensboro XC Invitational (Sep 30)
  8. 13 Caroline Hale · Science Hill: Becky Selfe Invitational (Sep 2)
  9. 15 Gracie Spicer · Davie County: Friday Night Lights XC Festival (Sep 8)
  10. 19 Lexi Marion · Davie County: Friday Night Lights XC Festival (Sep 8)
  11. 20 Georgia Ross · Gray's Creek: adidas XC Challenge (Sep 16)
  12. 21 Aylynn Gaedtke · Gray's Creek: adidas XC Challenge (Sep 16)
  13. 26 Aubrey Smith-walker · Southwest Guilford: 39th Annual Greensboro XC Invitational (Sep 30)
  14. 31 Ava Wray · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 2 more
  15. 32 Lila Engler · Forsyth Home Educators: Hxn Championships (Nov 4)
  16. 34 Anna Tucker · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 18) · and 3 more
  17. 40 Sophia Markowitz · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  18. 42 Emilia Marks · Davie County: Friday Night Lights XC Festival (Sep 8)
  19. 47 Krystie Eugene · Galileo: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 18) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 2 more
  20. 50 Aleyssia Thompson · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  21. 51 Eliana Gordon · Forsyth Home Educators: Hxn Championships (Nov 4)
  22. 70 Kendra Kitchen · Polk County: 39th Annual Greensboro XC Invitational (Sep 30)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 71 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Carol-Anne GarrettGalileo · SRFinish 19:12.219:12.219:21.3107.1
2Lorraine HunterScience Hill · FRFinish 20:27.020:27.020:36.682.0
3Natalie HayesScience Hill · SOFinish 20:30.520:30.520:40.280.8
4Meghan MorseScience Hill · SOFinish 20:52.520:52.521:02.373.4
5Antu BahulekarScience Hill · FRFinish 21:00.421:00.421:10.370.7
6Maya HerndonGalileo · JRFinish 21:02.421:02.421:12.370.1
7Isabella CandeeScience Hill · FRFinish 21:10.421:10.421:20.467.4
8Lila PearsonLangtree Charter Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 21:12.121:12.121:22.166.8
9Sunny EorganScience Hill · JRFinish 21:12.921:12.921:22.966.5
10Raven RichardsonGray's Creek · SOFinish 21:22.421:22.421:32.563.3
11Amber AliceaJack Britt · SRFinish 21:31.421:31.421:41.560.3
12Faith ThomasSouthwest Guilford · SOFinish 21:47.821:47.821:58.154.8
13Caroline HaleScience Hill · FRFinish 21:53.021:53.022:03.353.1
14Elizabeth HamiltonForsyth Home Educators · SRFinish 21:58.121:58.122:08.451.4
15Gracie SpicerDavie County · SRFinish 21:58.821:58.822:09.251.1
16Tehyanna WinfordJack Britt · SOFinish 22:07.222:07.222:17.748.3
17Evelyn CarrollLangtree Charter Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 22:19.822:19.822:30.344.1
18Iman IsmailHigh Point Blaze · Grade not recordedFinish 22:21.722:21.722:32.243.4
19Lexi MarionDavie County · SOFinish 22:30.122:30.122:40.740.6
20Georgia RossGray's Creek · SRFinish 22:31.622:31.622:42.240.1
21Aylynn GaedtkeGray's Creek · FRFinish 22:35.022:35.022:45.638.9
22Emory TaylorAshe County · JRFinish 22:39.222:39.222:49.837.6
23Miranda MillerJack Britt · SRFinish 22:49.522:49.523:00.234.1
24Sage JonesSouth Lenoir · SOFinish 22:51.622:51.623:02.433.4
25Aubrey SimmonsGreensboro Pacesetters · Grade not recordedFinish 22:54.122:54.123:04.932.5
26Aubrey Smith-walkerSouthwest Guilford · SRFinish 22:57.522:57.523:08.331.4
27Clara PhelpsDavie County · SOFinish 22:58.222:58.223:09.031.2
28Logan BrundageRagsdale · SOFinish 23:08.823:08.823:19.727.6
29Karsyn HuskeyPolk County · JRFinish 23:10.323:10.323:21.227.1
30Mia Sanchez-HernandezJack Britt · SRFinish 23:11.823:11.823:22.726.6
31Ava WrayGalileo · SRFinish 23:22.123:22.123:33.123.1
32Lila EnglerForsyth Home Educators · SOFinish 23:41.223:41.223:52.316.7
33Ella LanierNC Leadership Academy · JRFinish 23:45.823:45.823:57.015.2
34Anna TuckerGalileo · SRFinish 24:01.924:01.924:13.29.8
35Evie PylesAshe County · JRFinish 24:14.324:14.324:25.75.6
36Claudia CastilloSouth Lenoir · JRFinish 24:19.224:19.224:30.73.9
37Aubri HillRandleman · SOFinish 24:34.524:34.524:46.1—
38Ava WillamsonGreensboro Pacesetters · Grade not recordedFinish 24:34.524:34.524:46.1—
39Isabel CarrascoGray's Creek · SOFinish 24:36.624:36.624:48.2—
40Sophia MarkowitzGalileo · JRFinish 24:37.824:37.824:49.4—
41Allison HaynesSouthwest Guilford · Grade not recordedFinish 24:41.324:41.324:53.0—
42Emilia MarksDavie County · SOFinish 24:46.424:46.424:58.1—
43Natalie AugustineLangtree Charter Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 24:49.024:49.025:00.7—
44Emma HawleyForsyth Home Educators · FRFinish 24:49.124:49.125:00.8—
45Madeline WhickerForsyth Home Educators · FRFinish 24:56.224:56.225:07.9—
46Rachel NobleSouth Lenoir · JRFinish 25:07.725:07.725:19.5—
47Krystie EugeneGalileo · SOFinish 25:13.825:13.825:25.7—
48Emma HerringRandleman · SOFinish 25:17.025:17.025:28.9—
49Sophia OzanichJack Britt · JRFinish 25:17.125:17.125:29.0—
50Aleyssia ThompsonGalileo · SRFinish 25:24.425:24.425:36.4—
Show all 71 results (21 more)Showing all 71 results · hide rows 51–71
Girls results, rows 51 to 71 of 71
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Eliana GordonForsyth Home Educators · FRFinish 25:24.525:24.525:36.5—
52Brenna LautenNC Leadership Academy · SOFinish 26:12.126:12.126:24.5—
53Brooke SwigertNC Leadership Academy · SOFinish 26:13.026:13.026:25.3—
54Alexa HaroSouth Lenoir · FRFinish 26:41.026:41.026:53.6—
55Isabelle GventerLangtree Charter Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 26:52.326:52.327:05.0—
56Leila KronickJack Britt · JRFinish 26:56.226:56.227:08.8—
57Abilene DollarAshe County · SRFinish 26:59.026:59.027:11.7—
58Callie WoodRandleman · JRFinish 27:17.527:17.527:30.4—
59Liene PurcellLangtree Charter Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 27:22.727:22.727:35.6—
60Isabella SchillingDavie County · SOFinish 27:26.427:26.427:39.3—
61Miriam CarrollLangtree Charter Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 28:09.528:09.528:22.8—
62Sarah PattonForsyth Home Educators · FRFinish 28:17.128:17.128:30.5—
63Amy KooNC Leadership Academy · FRFinish 28:41.628:41.628:55.2—
64Kaitlyn NicolettaNC Leadership Academy · SOFinish 29:35.829:35.829:49.8—
65MacKenzie ReedJack Britt · SRFinish 30:51.030:51.031:05.5—
66Kara HarperSouth Lenoir · SOFinish 31:06.631:06.631:21.2—
67Abby HollomanSouth Lenoir · JRFinish 31:55.131:55.132:10.2—
68Kinsley ShinskyDavie County · FRFinish 32:55.032:55.033:10.5—
69Bridget WoodDavie County · FRFinish 32:56.032:56.033:11.5—
70Kendra KitchenPolk County · FRFinish 33:13.733:13.733:29.4—
71Madelyn JoyceNC Leadership Academy · FRFinish 33:21.633:21.633:37.3—

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Women 5k Run High School Finals

C

38 of 38 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −45.0 s course and conditions −36.3 s in-season fitness −8.7 sCourse constant 476.62 (477)Race constant 477.43 (477)

9 used anchors± 9.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 9 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. This race shares part of its adjustment with the other divisions run here on the same course and day. Listed here: all 9, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Ava Nutter · Science Hill: Becky Selfe Invitational (Sep 2)
  2. 7 Camryn Snead · Galileo: VHSL Class 1 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · VHSL Group 1A Region B XC Championships (Nov 1) · and 4 more
  3. 8 Sasha Arjona · Gray's Creek: adidas XC Challenge (Sep 16)
  4. 11 Nova Almquist · Galileo: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 18)
  5. 13 Samantha Van Opstal · Galileo: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 18) · Knights Crossing XC Invitational (Sep 9) · and 2 more
  6. 15 Essence Thompson-Glover · Gray's Creek: adidas XC Challenge (Sep 16)
  7. 18 Lorelei Wray · Galileo: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 18) · Southside XC Invitational (Aug 23)
  8. 21 Antonella Verduga · Gray's Creek: adidas XC Challenge (Sep 16)
  9. 26 Sarah Beth Garrett · Galileo: Greater Danville Metro XC Championship (Oct 18)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 38 of 38 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Ava NutterScience Hill · FRFinish 19:51.819:51.820:27.385.1
2Lily TutterowScience Hill · FRFinish 21:28.621:28.622:07.051.8
3Ellison GordonGreater Cabarrus Athletic Association · FRFinish 23:54.823:54.824:37.51.7
4Courtney ButtsGreater Cabarrus Athletic Association · SOFinish 23:59.923:59.924:42.7—
5Lindsay EasterSurry Home Educators · SOFinish 24:07.624:07.624:50.7—
6Caylie SorrowGreater Cabarrus Athletic Association · JRFinish 24:50.024:50.025:34.3—
7Camryn SneadGalileo · FRFinish 25:10.425:10.425:55.4—
8Sasha ArjonaGray's Creek · SOFinish 25:15.325:15.326:00.4—
9Jera DoyleGarner Homeschool · JRFinish 25:36.025:36.026:21.7—
10Adria DoyleGarner Homeschool · FRFinish 25:53.825:53.826:40.0—
11Nova AlmquistGalileo · FRFinish 25:54.725:54.726:40.9—
12Kayla FranklinTrinity High · FRFinish 26:07.526:07.526:54.2—
13Samantha Van OpstalGalileo · FRFinish 26:12.326:12.326:59.1—
14Kaylen MilosUnattached · Grade not recordedFinish 26:14.626:14.627:01.5—
15Essence Thompson-GloverGray's Creek · JRFinish 26:21.126:21.127:08.2—
16Elizabeth GullionSurry Home Educators · FRFinish 26:51.726:51.727:39.6—
17Lydia JarrardSurry Home Educators · SRFinish 27:10.927:10.927:59.5—
18Lorelei WrayGalileo · SOFinish 27:30.527:30.528:19.6—
19Diana AvilaRandleman · JRFinish 28:01.128:01.128:51.1—
20Trinnittie WaltersGarner Homeschool · FRFinish 28:11.728:11.729:02.0—
21Antonella VerdugaGray's Creek · FRFinish 28:27.328:27.329:18.1—
22Julianna MagnantiLangtree Charter Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 28:55.728:55.729:47.3—
23Alie GullionSurry Home Educators · JRFinish 29:26.129:26.130:18.7—
24Sydney DavisSurry Home Educators · JRFinish 29:36.329:36.330:29.2—
25Parker SterlingRandleman · SRFinish 29:54.529:54.530:47.9—
26Sarah Beth GarrettGalileo · SRFinish 30:13.630:13.631:07.6—
27Laura PurcellLangtree Charter Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 30:49.930:49.931:44.9—
28Madeline JonesTrinity High · SRFinish 30:59.530:59.531:54.8—
29Molly JarrardSurry Home Educators · FRFinish 31:49.331:49.332:46.1—
30Preslee ClayGalileo · FRFinish 32:09.332:09.333:06.7—
31Abby LaneDavie County · SOFinish 32:12.932:12.933:10.5—
32Hayden SmithDavie County · FRFinish 34:19.934:19.935:21.2—
33Alexa VillaDavie County · SOFinish 34:20.434:20.435:21.7—
34Callie JonesTrinity High · JRFinish 34:22.934:22.935:24.3—
35Helen HendricksonSurry Home Educators · SOFinish 34:25.134:25.135:26.6—
36Autumn HilliardGarner Homeschool · FRFinish 34:58.934:58.936:01.3—
37Tristan WaltersGarner Homeschool · FRFinish 35:11.435:11.436:14.3—
38Maggie SmithDavie County · SOFinish 35:55.335:55.336:59.5—
Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.