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Sep 30, 2023 · Purcellville, VA

Wolverine XC Invitational

Woodgrove HS 5K Course · Historical 2023 results

Other years: 2026 · 2025 · 2024

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 160.7), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

3 of 6 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero. JV races are not calculated on their own. Each uses its meet’s varsity adjustment plus a JV adjustment.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls 5000m Run

Copy link to Girls varsity
B

70 of 70 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −56.0 s course and conditions −59.0 s in-season fitness +3.0 sCourse constant 471.58 (472)Race constant 474.53 (475)

67 used anchors± 4.1 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 67 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: the first 50 of 67, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Madelyn Anderson · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Commonwealth District Championship (Oct 24) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Eden Alexander · Saint Sebastian Academy: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · Arrows Invitational (Nov 11) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Hannah Floyd · Riverside: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · and 7 more
  4. 4 Julia Seeley · Saint Sebastian Academy: Arrows Invitational (Nov 11) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · and 3 more
  5. 5 Elizabeth Kitchens · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Commonwealth District Championship (Oct 24) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Jillian Byerle · Freedom (Leesburg): VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Cedar Run District Champs (Oct 23) · and 1 more
  7. 7 Lily Oh · Riverside: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 5 more
  8. 8 Maren Rufo · Riverside: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 4 more
  9. 9 Susan Peterson · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Commonwealth District Championship (Oct 24) · and 3 more
  10. 10 Thea Motes · Independence: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Margot O'Brien · Loudoun County: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Ava Vandeventer · Saint Sebastian Academy: Arrows Invitational (Nov 11) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Elise Collette · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Commonwealth District Championship (Oct 24) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Ariya Shah · Woodgrove: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  15. 15 Makenzie Milburn · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 4 more
  16. 16 Cat Pizzarello · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 4 more
  17. 17 Madeline Binkley · Independence: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  18. 18 Sanvi Desai · Freedom (Leesburg): Cedar Run District Champs (Oct 23) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Esther Shipley · Saint Sebastian Academy: Arrows Invitational (Nov 11) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · and 3 more
  20. 20 Evelyn Fick · Freedom (Leesburg): VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Cedar Run District Champs (Oct 23) · and 3 more
  21. 21 Alessia Grant · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Commonwealth District Championship (Oct 24) · and 3 more
  22. 22 Miriam Crowder · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 24) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Emily Tran · Woodgrove: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  24. 24 Adriana Miranda · Woodgrove: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  25. 25 Tanya Srivastava · Freedom (Leesburg): VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Cedar Run District Champs (Oct 23) · and 3 more
  26. 26 Bella Jones · Woodgrove: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  27. 27 Addison Fruzzetti · Independence: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14)
  28. 28 Julia Mendez · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 3 more
  29. 29 Addison Pounder · Freedom (Leesburg): Cedar Run District Champs (Oct 23) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  30. 30 Brooklyn Portes · Freedom (Leesburg): VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Cedar Run District Champs (Oct 23) · and 1 more
  31. 32 Natalie Holland · Mount Vernon: Occoquan Region CC Championship (Nov 2) · National District CC Championship (Oct 26) · and 2 more
  32. 33 Kalie Brown · Loudoun County: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 5 more
  33. 34 Lydia Wheaton · Saint Sebastian Academy: Arrows Invitational (Nov 11) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 24) · and 2 more
  34. 35 Mayukha Nerayanuru · Independence: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  35. 36 Fallon Murphy · Loudoun County: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · and 3 more
  36. 37 Lilly Lehmbeck · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7)
  37. 38 Haley Countryman · Independence: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  38. 40 Lauren Ryan · Independence: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14)
  39. 41 Sarah Pates · Riverside: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 5 more
  40. 43 Molly Magoon · Independence: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  41. 44 Addison Rico · Freedom (Leesburg): Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9) · Hood College HS Invitational (Sep 2)
  42. 45 Alexandria Collins · Mountain View: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  43. 46 Allie Gonzalez · Independence: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24)
  44. 47 Emily Wilson · Mountain View: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Commonwealth District Championship (Oct 24) · and 3 more
  45. 48 Emily Seeley · Saint Sebastian Academy: Arrows Invitational (Nov 11) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · and 3 more
  46. 49 Katie Schultz · Woodgrove: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  47. 50 Mikaela Ninou · Riverside: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  48. 51 Allison Kranz · Loudoun County: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  49. 52 Carlyn Carter · Independence: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24)
  50. 53 Anna Ovsijenko · Mount Vernon: Occoquan Region CC Championship (Nov 2) · National District CC Championship (Oct 26) · and 1 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 70 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Madelyn AndersonMountain View · SRFinish 18:00.918:00.918:49.5117.7
2Eden AlexanderSaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 18:45.518:45.519:36.1102.1
3Hannah FloydRiverside · JRFinish 18:53.518:53.519:44.499.4
4Julia SeeleySaint Sebastian Academy · SRFinish 18:58.318:58.319:49.497.7
5Elizabeth KitchensMountain View · SOFinish 19:50.019:50.020:43.579.7
6Jillian ByerleFreedom (Leesburg) · SRFinish 20:02.020:02.020:56.075.5
7Lily OhRiverside · FRFinish 20:03.620:03.620:57.774.9
8Maren RufoRiverside · SRFinish 20:04.120:04.120:58.274.8
9Susan PetersonMountain View · SOFinish 20:09.120:09.121:03.473.0
10Thea MotesIndependence · SOFinish 20:10.620:10.621:05.072.5
11Margot O'BrienLoudoun County · SRFinish 20:16.820:16.821:11.570.3
12Ava VandeventerSaint Sebastian Academy · SOFinish 20:22.520:22.521:17.468.4
13Elise ColletteMountain View · SRFinish 20:23.420:23.421:18.468.0
14Ariya ShahWoodgrove · JRFinish 20:23.620:23.621:18.668.0
15Makenzie MilburnWoodgrove · SRFinish 20:25.120:25.121:20.167.4
16Cat PizzarelloLoudoun County · SRFinish 20:27.720:27.721:22.966.5
17Madeline BinkleyIndependence · SRFinish 20:29.720:29.721:24.965.8
18Sanvi DesaiFreedom (Leesburg) · JRFinish 20:39.020:39.021:34.762.6
19Esther ShipleySaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 20:42.520:42.521:38.361.4
20Evelyn FickFreedom (Leesburg) · SRFinish 20:49.320:49.321:45.459.0
21Alessia GrantMountain View · FRFinish 20:50.520:50.521:46.758.6
22Miriam CrowderSaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 20:51.520:51.521:47.758.3
23Emily TranWoodgrove · SRFinish 20:59.520:59.521:56.155.5
24Adriana MirandaWoodgrove · JRFinish 21:01.921:01.921:58.654.6
25Tanya SrivastavaFreedom (Leesburg) · SOFinish 21:10.821:10.822:07.951.5
26Bella JonesWoodgrove · SOFinish 21:11.321:11.322:08.451.4
27Addison FruzzettiIndependence · FRFinish 21:21.721:21.722:19.347.7
28Julia MendezLoudoun County · SOFinish 21:23.121:23.122:20.747.2
29Addison PounderFreedom (Leesburg) · SOFinish 21:25.921:25.922:23.746.3
30Brooklyn PortesFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 21:28.321:28.322:26.245.4
31Ellie O'SheaFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 21:35.121:35.122:33.343.1
32Natalie HollandMount Vernon · JRFinish 21:39.321:39.322:37.741.6
33Kalie BrownLoudoun County · SOFinish 21:46.721:46.722:45.439.0
34Lydia WheatonSaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 21:47.421:47.422:46.138.8
35Mayukha NerayanuruIndependence · SRFinish 21:50.321:50.322:49.237.8
36Fallon MurphyLoudoun County · SOFinish 21:51.321:51.322:50.237.4
37Lilly LehmbeckWoodgrove · SOFinish 21:55.621:55.622:54.735.9
38Haley CountrymanIndependence · SOFinish 21:56.321:56.322:55.435.7
39Ava TessierFreedom (Leesburg) · SOFinish 21:57.621:57.622:56.835.2
40Lauren RyanIndependence · JRFinish 21:59.321:59.322:58.634.6
41Sarah PatesRiverside · JRFinish 22:05.622:05.623:05.232.4
42Madison CoffrenFreedom (Leesburg) · JRFinish 22:12.222:12.223:12.030.1
43Molly MagoonIndependence · SOFinish 22:14.022:14.023:13.929.5
44Addison RicoFreedom (Leesburg) · SRFinish 22:17.022:17.023:17.128.5
45Alexandria CollinsMountain View · SOFinish 22:18.622:18.623:18.727.9
46Allie GonzalezIndependence · FRFinish 22:22.122:22.123:22.426.7
47Emily WilsonMountain View · FRFinish 22:24.722:24.723:25.125.8
48Emily SeeleySaint Sebastian Academy · SOFinish 22:27.922:27.923:28.524.7
49Katie SchultzWoodgrove · SOFinish 22:36.422:36.423:37.321.7
50Mikaela NinouRiverside · FRFinish 22:42.522:42.523:43.719.6
Show all 70 results (20 more)Showing all 70 results · hide rows 51–70
Girls results, rows 51 to 70 of 70
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Allison KranzLoudoun County · SRFinish 22:47.522:47.523:48.917.8
52Carlyn CarterIndependence · SOFinish 22:50.722:50.723:52.316.7
53Anna OvsijenkoMount Vernon · SRFinish 22:56.222:56.223:58.014.8
54Raigan GardnerIndependence · JRFinish 22:59.122:59.124:01.113.8
55Margaret OliverWoodgrove · SOFinish 23:00.823:00.824:02.813.2
56Gisele HuangRiverside · JRFinish 23:04.123:04.124:06.312.1
57Gweneth TorresMountain View · JRFinish 23:11.823:11.824:14.39.4
58Abigail CunningtonLoudoun County · SOFinish 23:14.223:14.224:16.88.5
59Mariah WatersRock Ridge · SRFinish 23:17.623:17.624:20.47.4
60Eryn ChemoiwaRock Ridge · FRFinish 23:50.523:50.524:54.8—
61Lacey LussierMount Vernon · SOFinish 24:02.624:02.625:07.4—
62Sophia HubbardMountain View · FRFinish 24:17.424:17.425:22.9—
63Isabella KavookjianSaint Sebastian Academy · SOFinish 24:21.824:21.825:27.5—
64Audrey ChietRiverside · FRFinish 24:33.924:33.925:40.1—
65Lucy EvichSaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 24:39.724:39.725:46.2—
66Kaelyn SamahaWoodgrove · SRFinish 24:52.824:52.825:59.9—
67Elie LervikMount Vernon · SRFinish 24:56.624:56.626:03.8—
68Maia BrownRiverside · SOFinish 25:07.625:07.626:15.3—
69Estelle AboagyeMount Vernon · SRFinish 26:27.026:27.027:38.3—
70Audrey Ortiz-PetersonMount Vernon · SOFinish 28:26.628:26.629:43.3—

GIRLS · JV · 5,000 M

Girls 5000m Run

Copy link to Girls JV 1
D

29 of 29 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −49.5 s course and conditions −52.5 s in-season fitness +3.0 sCourse constant 470.38 (470)Race constant 473.88 (474)

Unavailable used anchors± 20.2 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Girls results, places shown 1 to 29 of 29 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Lucy CanonicaFreedom (Leesburg) · JRFinish 22:42.922:42.923:36.122.1
2Kayla WaterfieldFreedom (Leesburg) · SRFinish 23:04.923:04.923:58.914.5
3Tenley NewcombFreedom (Leesburg) · SRFinish 23:48.123:48.124:43.8—
4Emily AaronFreedom (Leesburg) · SRFinish 23:59.423:59.424:55.6—
5Isabella BrownMountain View · JRFinish 24:01.024:01.024:57.2—
6Rachel KaneFreedom (Leesburg) · SRFinish 24:02.124:02.124:58.4—
7Elle ShinLoudoun County · JRFinish 24:54.524:54.525:52.8—
8Angelica PerezMountain View · JRFinish 25:00.625:00.625:59.1—
9Mahi ParikhFreedom (Leesburg) · JRFinish 25:00.725:00.725:59.2—
10Cadence McGrathWoodgrove · SRFinish 25:01.825:01.826:00.4—
11Katie JonesIndependence · SRFinish 25:03.125:03.126:01.7—
12Kristie TanVirginia Academy · SOFinish 25:21.625:21.626:21.0—
13Chloe BealLoudoun County · SRFinish 25:44.725:44.726:45.0—
14Sara KhanFreedom (Leesburg) · JRFinish 25:59.425:59.427:00.2—
15Fiker TemesgenFreedom (Leesburg) · JRFinish 25:59.825:59.827:00.7—
16Claire PellVirginia · SRFinish 26:12.426:12.427:13.7—
17Mary GrantVirginia Academy · SRFinish 26:14.626:14.627:16.0—
18Keely McAteeVirginia Academy · FRFinish 26:49.126:49.127:51.9—
19Peyton LumanRiverside · SRFinish 27:20.927:20.928:24.9—
20Hannah WalshEvergreen Christian School · JRFinish 28:23.528:23.529:30.0—
21Samhita BellaryRock Ridge · JRFinish 28:58.028:58.030:05.8—
22Neyda Lainez-HernandezMount Vernon · SRFinish 29:04.429:04.430:12.5—
23Gisella Mejia-DiazMount Vernon · SRFinish 29:07.529:07.530:15.7—
24Shelby AquilinaLoudoun County · SRFinish 29:26.229:26.230:35.1—
25Mallory HinceVirginia · SRFinish 29:34.229:34.230:43.4—
26Abigail StoffellMountain View · JRFinish 29:52.929:52.931:02.8—
27Kateri EllisVirginia · SRFinish 30:32.030:32.031:43.5—
28Kyndall JohnsonVirginia · SRFinish 31:33.031:33.032:46.8—
29Virginia Grace BelzerMount Vernon · SRFinish 31:47.031:47.033:01.4—

GIRLS · JV · 5,000 M

Girls 5000m Run

Copy link to Girls JV 2
D

34 of 34 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −49.5 s course and conditions −52.5 s in-season fitness +3.0 sCourse constant 468.81 (469)Race constant 472.53 (473)

Unavailable used anchors± 20.2 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Girls results, places shown 1 to 34 of 34 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Ananya AminFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 21:26.621:26.622:16.848.6
2Sreela ReddimallaFreedom (Leesburg) · SOFinish 23:37.023:37.024:32.33.4
3Claire PenlandFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 23:41.923:41.924:37.41.7
4Ava CroninIndependence · FRFinish 23:45.323:45.324:40.90.5
5Maddie BrownRiverside · FRFinish 24:15.624:15.625:12.4—
6Julia HartkopfMountain View · FRFinish 24:27.724:27.725:25.0—
7Emma KniskernIndependence · FRFinish 24:30.724:30.725:28.1—
8Siri MussimFreedom (Leesburg) · JRFinish 25:00.925:00.925:59.5—
9Savni PatilRiverside · FRFinish 25:41.025:41.026:41.1—
10Madelyn HomaLoudoun County · FRFinish 25:50.025:50.026:50.5—
11Sophie SweeneyMountain View · SOFinish 26:09.326:09.327:10.5—
12Aliana ColemanFreedom (Leesburg) · SOFinish 26:15.426:15.427:16.9—
13Victoria SummersWoodgrove · FRFinish 26:33.626:33.627:35.8—
14Gianna EastridgeFreedom (Leesburg) · SOFinish 26:43.026:43.027:45.5—
15Brianna SadowIndependence · SOFinish 27:14.127:14.128:17.8—
16Claire McLaughlinIndependence · FRFinish 27:42.427:42.428:47.3—
17Anika DuttFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 27:42.527:42.528:47.4—
18Eshika SinghFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 27:43.727:43.728:48.6—
19Mayra MejiasFreedom (Leesburg) · SOFinish 27:53.827:53.828:59.1—
20Allison McGeeMountain View · SOFinish 28:15.128:15.129:21.2—
21Hayley KrullaWoodgrove · FRFinish 29:11.429:11.430:19.7—
22Olivia FraserFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 29:11.629:11.630:19.9—
23Isabella ToweWoodgrove · SOFinish 29:18.629:18.630:27.2—
24Georgia BurkeFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 29:33.329:33.330:42.5—
25Celia GeurkinkVirginia · SOFinish 29:38.629:38.630:48.0—
26Olivia MeadowsVirginia · SOFinish 29:48.729:48.730:58.5—
27Milanah RudyRock Ridge · SOFinish 30:01.930:01.931:12.2—
28Aarna DivekarFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 31:02.431:02.432:15.1—
29Caroline RutlerFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 31:20.331:20.332:33.7—
30Colette StantonVirginia · SOFinish 31:24.031:24.032:37.5—
31Vanessa SchroederMount Vernon · SOFinish 32:02.932:02.933:17.9—
32Clare O'neillSaint Sebastian Academy · FRFinish 32:43.432:43.434:00.0—
33Isabela Valencia GuzmanMount Vernon · SOFinish 33:39.333:39.334:58.1—
34Sreshta KaranamFreedom (Leesburg) · FRFinish 36:10.636:10.637:35.3—

Wolverine XC Invitational, Sep 30, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.