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Oct 31, 2023 · Leesburg, VA

Region 4C XC Championship

Oatlands Plantation · Historical 2023 results

Other years: 2025 · 2024

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

4C Boys 5000 Meter Run

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C

44 of 44 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +1.2 s course and conditions +22.7 s in-season fitness −21.5 sCourse constant 496.82 (497)Race constant 495.12 (495)

44 used anchors± 7.3 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.934Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 44 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 44, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Tarek Benlamkaddem · Broad Run: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Ty Blair · Loudoun Valley: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · and 5 more
  3. 3 Michael Tafe · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 6 more
  4. 4 Prescott Noll · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 5 more
  5. 5 Aaron Forgas · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Max Panica · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Levente Domonkos · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  8. 8 Grant White · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 6 more
  9. 9 Jared Ruggles · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 7 more
  10. 10 Rylan Wells · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  11. 11 Michael Tartaglione · Heritage (Leesburg): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Owen Wratten · Heritage (Leesburg): Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Bradley Bernard · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 4 more
  14. 14 Jack Zettlemoyer · Broad Run: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  15. 15 Luke Getz · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 7 more
  16. 16 Nicholas Rini · John Champe: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Glory Days Grill Invitational (Sep 30) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Grant McGee · Broad Run: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  18. 18 Ben Kelly · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 7 more
  19. 19 Jordan Cates · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  20. 20 Ezra Kovzelove · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 2 more
  21. 21 Jack Cassidy · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 5 more
  22. 22 Jacob Jackson · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 7 more
  23. 23 Matthew Ramarge · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 5 more
  24. 24 Julian Israel · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  25. 25 Isaac Pingry · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  26. 26 Javier Sanchez Hightower · Broad Run: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  27. 27 Cole Luba · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  28. 28 Baylor Bartlett · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  29. 29 Henry Cassidy · Loudoun County: Woodgrove (Oct 11) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · and 2 more
  30. 30 Kohen Anderson · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Judges Classic (Sep 30)
  31. 31 Brandon Stefkovich · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 7 more
  32. 32 Sam Edwards · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 5 more
  33. 33 Gabe Cunnington · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 5 more
  34. 34 Logan Goodwin · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 3 more
  35. 35 Riley Murphy · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 2 more
  36. 36 Ian Gerard · Broad Run: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  37. 37 James Torrible · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 4 more
  38. 38 Dylan Keyser · Heritage (Leesburg): Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance (Sep 2)
  39. 39 Tyler Elliott · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 4 more
  40. 40 Colin Weissman · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 3 more
  41. 41 Chandler Mercer · Woodgrove: Woodgrove (Oct 11) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  42. 42 Carter Williams · Loudoun County: Woodgrove (Oct 11) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · and 2 more
  43. 43 Joshua Whitehead · Broad Run HS: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  44. 44 Andrew Wells · Broad Run HS: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 44 of 44 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Tarek BenlamkaddemBroad Run · SRFinish 15:43.015:43.015:29.1180.2
2Ty BlairLoudoun Valley · SRFinish 16:01.016:01.015:46.9174.3
3Michael TafeLoudoun County · FRFinish 16:14.016:14.015:59.7170.0
4Prescott NollWoodgrove · SRFinish 16:31.016:31.016:16.4164.5
5Aaron ForgasDominion · JRFinish 16:37.016:37.016:22.3162.5
6Max PanicaLoudoun Valley · SOFinish 16:45.016:45.016:30.2159.9
7Levente DomonkosDominion · JRFinish 16:49.016:49.016:34.1158.6
8Grant WhiteTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 16:54.016:54.016:39.1156.9
9Jared RugglesTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 16:55.016:55.016:40.1156.6
10Rylan WellsLoudoun Valley · SRFinish 16:59.016:59.016:44.0155.3
11Michael TartaglioneHeritage (Leesburg) · SRFinish 17:05.017:05.016:49.9153.3
12Owen WrattenHeritage (Leesburg) · SOFinish 17:10.017:10.016:54.8151.7
13Bradley BernardLoudoun Valley · SRFinish 17:12.017:12.016:56.8151.0
14Jack ZettlemoyerBroad Run · SRFinish 17:15.017:15.016:59.8150.0
15Luke GetzTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 17:19.017:19.017:03.7148.7
16Nicholas RiniJohn Champe · SRFinish 17:27.017:27.017:11.6146.1
17Grant McGeeBroad Run · SRFinish 17:29.017:29.017:13.6145.4
18Ben KellyTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 17:30.017:30.017:14.5145.1
19Jordan CatesLoudoun Valley · JRFinish 17:30.017:30.017:14.5145.1
20Ezra KovzeloveWoodgrove · SRFinish 17:34.017:34.017:18.5143.8
21Jack CassidyLoudoun County · FRFinish 17:34.017:34.017:18.5143.8
22Jacob JacksonTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 17:35.017:35.017:19.5143.4
23Matthew RamargeLoudoun County · JRFinish 17:37.017:37.017:21.4142.8
24Julian IsraelLoudoun Valley · JRFinish 17:37.017:37.017:21.4142.8
25Isaac PingryHeritage (Leesburg) · SOFinish 17:38.017:38.017:22.4142.5
26Javier Sanchez HightowerBroad Run · JRFinish 17:50.017:50.017:34.2138.5
27Cole LubaHeritage (Leesburg) · JRFinish 17:50.017:50.017:34.2138.5
28Baylor BartlettLoudoun Valley · SRFinish 17:56.017:56.017:40.2136.5
29Henry CassidyLoudoun County · FRFinish 17:58.017:58.017:42.1135.9
30Kohen AndersonHeritage (Leesburg) · JRFinish 18:03.018:03.017:47.1134.2
31Brandon StefkovichTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 18:07.018:07.017:51.0132.9
32Sam EdwardsLoudoun County · FRFinish 18:15.018:15.017:58.9130.3
33Gabe CunningtonLoudoun County · SOFinish 18:16.018:16.017:59.9130.0
34Logan GoodwinWoodgrove · JRFinish 18:17.018:17.018:00.9129.7
35Riley MurphyWoodgrove · SRFinish 18:17.018:17.018:00.9129.7
36Ian GerardBroad Run · JRFinish 18:17.018:17.018:00.9129.7
37James TorribleWoodgrove · JRFinish 18:21.018:21.018:04.8128.3
38Dylan KeyserHeritage (Leesburg) · SRFinish 18:29.018:29.018:12.7125.7
39Tyler ElliottWoodgrove · SOFinish 18:59.018:59.018:42.2115.9
40Colin WeissmanTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 19:30.019:30.019:12.8105.7
41Chandler MercerWoodgrove · JRFinish 19:57.019:57.019:39.496.8
42Carter WilliamsLoudoun County · SOFinish 20:18.020:18.020:00.189.9
43Joshua WhiteheadBroad Run HS · JRFinish 20:30.020:30.020:11.986.0
44Andrew WellsBroad Run HS · FRFinish 22:36.022:36.022:16.044.6

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

4C Girls 5000 Meter Run

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B

46 of 46 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −6.4 s course and conditions +16.6 s in-season fitness −23.0 sCourse constant 500.18 (500)Race constant 498.27 (498)

46 used anchors± 4.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 46 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 46, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Ella Peterson · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Harper Bartlett · Loudoun Valley: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · and 5 more
  3. 3 Anna Ellison Downey · Heritage (Leesburg): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Fallon Fetterolf · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Eryn Lackey · Loudoun Valley: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Evie Lashey · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 7 more
  7. 7 Kira Hunt · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 6 more
  8. 8 Catherine Moschera · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 4 more
  9. 9 Mayleen Hyett · Loudoun Valley: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · and 4 more
  10. 10 Ava Wilson · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 7 more
  11. 11 Makenzie Milburn · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  12. 12 Aamina Poonawala · Broad Run HS: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Noelle Cates · Loudoun Valley: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · and 4 more
  14. 14 Sophia McCrosson · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 3 more
  15. 15 Mary Raterman · Broad Run HS: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Paige Simpkins · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 7 more
  17. 17 Ella Quist · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 5 more
  18. 18 Ella Phelps · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  19. 19 Rachael Keller · Broad Run HS: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  20. 20 Cat Pizzarello · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 30) · and 4 more
  21. 21 Audrey Yemo · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 7 more
  22. 22 Madeline Platt · Loudoun Valley: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 3 more
  23. 23 Lindsay Miller · Dominion: Woodgrove (Oct 11) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  24. 24 Ariya Shah · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 4 more
  25. 25 Alaa Aboulenein · John Champe: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Glory Days Grill Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  26. 26 Bri Marraccini · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  27. 27 Adriana Miranda · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 4 more
  28. 28 Ella Koerber · Dominion: Woodgrove (Oct 11) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 1 more
  29. 29 Hannah Mottaghi · Dominion: Judges Classic (Sep 30) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · and 1 more
  30. 30 Lilianna Domonkos · Dominion: Judges Classic (Sep 30) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · and 1 more
  31. 31 Emily Tran · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 4 more
  32. 32 Lydia Wallace · Broad Run HS: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 1 more
  33. 33 Bella Jones · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  34. 34 Fallon Murphy · Loudoun County: Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 30) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · and 3 more
  35. 35 Caitlin Cintron · John Champe: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Glory Days Grill Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  36. 36 Sarah Colquitt · Broad Run HS: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  37. 37 Kalie Brown · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 5 more
  38. 38 Davan Desmond · Broad Run HS: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  39. 39 Abigail Cunnington · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 4 more
  40. 40 Lucy Siciliano · Dominion: Woodgrove (Oct 11) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  41. 41 Brynn Silva · Dominion: Judges Classic (Sep 30) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  42. 42 Katie Schultz · Woodgrove: Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 30) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  43. 43 Allison Kranz · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 1 more
  44. 44 Laurean Keller · Broad Run HS: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  45. 45 Sara Ayd · John Champe: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Glory Days Grill Invitational (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  46. 46 Madelyn Homa · Loudoun County: Woodgrove (Oct 11) · Tuscarora Morven Meet (Aug 23)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 46 of 46 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Ella PetersonLoudoun Valley · SRFinish 18:59.018:59.018:48.4118.0
2Harper BartlettLoudoun Valley · FRFinish 19:27.019:27.019:16.1108.8
3Anna Ellison DowneyHeritage (Leesburg) · JRFinish 19:37.019:37.019:26.1105.5
4Fallon FetterolfLoudoun County · FRFinish 19:40.019:40.019:29.0104.5
5Eryn LackeyLoudoun Valley · SRFinish 19:50.019:50.019:38.9101.2
6Evie LasheyTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 19:56.019:56.019:44.999.2
7Kira HuntTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 19:59.019:59.019:47.898.2
8Catherine MoscheraTuscarora (VA) · FRFinish 20:21.020:21.020:09.690.9
9Mayleen HyettLoudoun Valley · JRFinish 20:25.020:25.020:13.689.6
10Ava WilsonTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 20:28.020:28.020:16.688.6
11Makenzie MilburnWoodgrove · SRFinish 20:33.020:33.020:21.587.0
12Aamina PoonawalaBroad Run HS · FRFinish 20:34.020:34.020:22.586.7
13Noelle CatesLoudoun Valley · FRFinish 20:40.020:40.020:28.584.7
14Sophia McCrossonDominion · SRFinish 20:40.020:40.020:28.584.7
15Mary RatermanBroad Run HS · SRFinish 20:48.020:48.020:36.482.0
16Paige SimpkinsTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 21:04.021:04.020:52.276.7
17Ella QuistTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 21:16.021:16.021:04.172.8
18Ella PhelpsLoudoun Valley · SOFinish 21:28.021:28.021:16.068.8
19Rachael KellerBroad Run HS · SRFinish 21:32.021:32.021:20.067.5
20Cat PizzarelloLoudoun County · SRFinish 21:48.021:48.021:35.862.2
21Audrey YemoTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 21:52.021:52.021:39.860.9
22Madeline PlattLoudoun Valley · SOFinish 21:59.021:59.021:46.758.6
23Lindsay MillerDominion · JRFinish 22:04.022:04.021:51.756.9
24Ariya ShahWoodgrove · JRFinish 22:05.022:05.021:52.756.6
25Alaa AbouleneinJohn Champe · SOFinish 22:06.022:06.021:53.756.3
26Bri MarracciniWoodgrove · JRFinish 22:19.022:19.022:06.552.0
27Adriana MirandaWoodgrove · JRFinish 22:20.022:20.022:07.551.6
28Ella KoerberDominion · SOFinish 22:22.022:22.022:09.551.0
29Hannah MottaghiDominion · SOFinish 22:34.022:34.022:21.447.0
30Lilianna DomonkosDominion · FRFinish 22:44.022:44.022:31.343.7
31Emily TranWoodgrove · SRFinish 22:47.022:47.022:34.342.7
32Lydia WallaceBroad Run HS · JRFinish 22:54.022:54.022:41.240.4
33Bella JonesWoodgrove · JRFinish 22:59.022:59.022:46.238.8
34Fallon MurphyLoudoun County · SOFinish 23:03.023:03.022:50.137.4
35Caitlin CintronJohn Champe · JRFinish 23:14.023:14.023:01.033.8
36Sarah ColquittBroad Run HS · SOFinish 23:19.023:19.023:06.032.2
37Kalie BrownLoudoun County · SOFinish 23:22.023:22.023:09.031.2
38Davan DesmondBroad Run HS · SRFinish 23:22.023:22.023:09.031.2
39Abigail CunningtonLoudoun County · SOFinish 23:37.023:37.023:23.826.2
40Lucy SicilianoDominion · JRFinish 23:52.023:52.023:38.721.3
41Brynn SilvaDominion · SRFinish 24:02.024:02.023:48.618.0
42Katie SchultzWoodgrove · SOFinish 24:20.024:20.024:06.412.0
43Allison KranzLoudoun County · SRFinish 24:20.024:20.024:06.412.0
44Laurean KellerBroad Run HS · SOFinish 24:26.024:26.024:12.410.0
45Sara AydJohn Champe · JRFinish 25:38.025:38.025:23.7—
46Madelyn HomaLoudoun County · FRFinish 27:26.027:26.027:10.7—

Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 31, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.