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Aug 23, 2023 · Leesburg, VA

Tuscarora Morven Meet

Morven Park · Historical 2023 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 165.8), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

1 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

5000m Girls 5000 Meter Run

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B

104 of 105 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +79.4 s course and conditions +7.9 s in-season fitness +71.5 sCourse constant 497.60 (498)Race constant 515.01 (515)

73 used anchors± 5.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 73 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: the first 50 of 73, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Hannah Floyd · Riverside: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · and 7 more
  2. 2 Fallon Fetterolf · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Kira Hunt · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 6 more
  4. 4 Hailey Sekhon · Lightridge: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · and 4 more
  5. 5 Paige Simpkins · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 7 more
  6. 6 Katherine Sillman · Tuscarora (VA): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 5 more
  7. 7 Elis Greenfield · Briar Woods: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Jenna White · Briar Woods: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · and 4 more
  9. 9 Maren Rufo · Riverside: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 4 more
  10. 10 Cat Pizzarello · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Allie Guzulaitis · Riverside: Hood College HS Invitational (Sep 2)
  12. 12 Margot O'Brien · Loudoun County: Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 30) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · and 1 more
  13. 13 Catherine Moschera · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 4 more
  14. 14 Ava Wilson · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 7 more
  15. 15 Elle Bellanca · Lightridge: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · and 4 more
  16. 16 Liliana Cascio · Lightridge: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Sakina Zavery · Briar Woods: Judges Classic (Sep 30) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9) · and 1 more
  18. 18 Sophia Gross · Lightridge: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · and 5 more
  19. 19 Gisele Huang · Riverside: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  20. 20 Ella Williamson · Riverside: Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  21. 21 Lily Oh · Riverside: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 5 more
  22. 22 Evie Lashey · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 7 more
  23. 23 Audrey Yemo · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 7 more
  24. 24 Sara Novinger · Lightridge: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  25. 25 Ella Quist · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · and 5 more
  26. 26 Ava Webster · Riverside: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24)
  27. 27 Sarah Pates · Riverside: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 5 more
  28. 28 Ashley Mendez · Lightridge: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · Oatlands Invitational (Sep 23) · and 1 more
  29. 29 Daniella Aziz · Lightridge: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · and 2 more
  30. 30 Julia Mendez · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 3 more
  31. 31 Amanda Chin · Stone Bridge: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 2 more
  32. 32 Kalie Brown · Loudoun County: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 5 more
  33. 33 Jane Fox · Tuscarora (VA): Woodgrove (Oct 11)
  34. 34 Ava Clark · Stone Bridge: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Woodgrove (Oct 11) · and 3 more
  35. 35 Emmi Harris · Lightridge: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7)
  36. 36 Anika Ammireddy · Lightridge: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24)
  37. 37 Fallon Murphy · Loudoun County: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 30) · and 3 more
  38. 39 Jasmine Abrantes · Riverside: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  39. 40 Molly Gifford · Briar Woods: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 2 more
  40. 41 Campbell Coleman · Briar Woods: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 3 more
  41. 42 Abby Sekhon · Lightridge: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · and 1 more
  42. 43 Ruthie Dickersheid · Tuscarora (VA): Woodgrove (Oct 11)
  43. 47 Jasmine Argueta · Tuscarora (VA): Woodgrove (Oct 11)
  44. 48 Kaia Hall · Lightridge: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 11) · Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · and 1 more
  45. 49 Alara Celebi · Tuscarora (VA): Woodgrove (Oct 11) · Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance (Sep 2)
  46. 50 Abigail Cunnington · Loudoun County: Region 4C XC Championship (Oct 31) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 4 more
  47. 52 Sadie Sanchez · Briar Woods: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 1 more
  48. 53 Samina Mouhamad · Stone Bridge: Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  49. 54 Zoe DeWitt · Stone Bridge: Potomac District Championship (Oct 24) · Judges Classic (Sep 30) · and 1 more
  50. 55 Kate Lowry · Tuscarora (VA): Woodgrove (Oct 11)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 105 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Hannah FloydRiverside · JRFinish 19:32.419:32.418:45.9118.9
2Fallon FetterolfLoudoun County · FRFinish 20:34.520:34.519:45.699.0
3Kira HuntTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 20:42.020:42.019:52.896.6
4Hailey SekhonLightridge · JRFinish 20:53.020:53.020:03.393.1
5Paige SimpkinsTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 21:12.521:12.520:22.086.8
6Katherine SillmanTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 21:12.721:12.720:22.286.7
7Elis GreenfieldBriar Woods · SOFinish 21:30.121:30.120:39.081.2
8Jenna WhiteBriar Woods · SOFinish 21:30.221:30.220:39.081.1
9Maren RufoRiverside · SRFinish 21:33.821:33.820:42.580.0
10Cat PizzarelloLoudoun County · SRFinish 21:36.021:36.020:44.679.3
11Allie GuzulaitisRiverside · SOFinish 21:52.021:52.021:00.074.2
12Margot O'BrienLoudoun County · SRFinish 21:52.721:52.721:00.773.9
13Catherine MoscheraTuscarora (VA) · FRFinish 22:09.522:09.521:16.868.6
14Ava WilsonTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 22:14.222:14.221:21.367.1
15Elle BellancaLightridge · FRFinish 22:54.122:54.121:59.654.3
16Liliana CascioLightridge · JRFinish 22:55.322:55.322:00.853.9
17Sakina ZaveryBriar Woods · SOFinish 23:08.323:08.322:13.349.7
18Sophia GrossLightridge · SRFinish 23:13.423:13.422:18.248.1
19Gisele HuangRiverside · JRFinish 23:20.623:20.622:25.145.8
20Ella WilliamsonRiverside · JRFinish 23:23.523:23.522:27.944.9
21Lily OhRiverside · FRFinish 23:27.323:27.322:31.543.7
22Evie LasheyTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 23:28.423:28.422:32.643.3
23Audrey YemoTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 23:32.323:32.322:36.342.1
24Sara NovingerLightridge · SOFinish 23:34.823:34.822:38.741.3
25Ella QuistTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 24:03.824:03.823:06.632.0
26Ava WebsterRiverside · JRFinish 24:04.324:04.323:07.031.8
27Sarah PatesRiverside · JRFinish 24:11.424:11.423:13.929.5
28Ashley MendezLightridge · JRFinish 24:13.424:13.423:15.828.9
29Daniella AzizLightridge · SOFinish 24:15.924:15.923:18.228.1
30Julia MendezLoudoun County · SOFinish 24:21.624:21.623:23.726.3
31Amanda ChinStone Bridge · JRFinish 24:22.124:22.123:24.126.1
32Kalie BrownLoudoun County · SOFinish 24:25.924:25.923:27.824.9
33Jane FoxTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 24:33.224:33.223:34.822.6
34Ava ClarkStone Bridge · SOFinish 24:35.224:35.223:36.721.9
35Emmi HarrisLightridge · FRFinish 24:42.924:42.923:44.119.5
36Anika AmmireddyLightridge · FRFinish 24:43.924:43.923:45.119.1
37Fallon MurphyLoudoun County · SOFinish 24:44.224:44.223:45.419.0
38Sarah DonahueRiverside · JRFinish 24:51.324:51.323:52.216.8
39Jasmine AbrantesRiverside · FRFinish 24:52.624:52.623:53.416.4
40Molly GiffordBriar Woods · JRFinish 24:53.024:53.023:53.816.2
41Campbell ColemanBriar Woods · JRFinish 24:59.124:59.123:59.714.3
42Abby SekhonLightridge · SOFinish 25:01.525:01.524:02.013.5
43Ruthie DickersheidTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 25:08.225:08.224:08.411.4
44Mary HomaLoudoun County · SOFinish 25:20.325:20.324:20.07.5
45Jolina ChuLightridge · SOFinish 25:22.025:22.024:21.76.9
46Rianna BashaweehLightridge · SOFinish 25:25.025:25.024:24.56.0
47Jasmine ArguetaTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 25:27.125:27.124:26.65.3
48Kaia HallLightridge · FRFinish 25:31.325:31.324:30.64.0
49Alara CelebiTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 25:55.625:55.624:53.9—
50Abigail CunningtonLoudoun County · SOFinish 26:07.426:07.425:05.3—
Show all 105 results (55 more)Showing all 105 results · hide rows 51–105
Girls results, rows 51 to 105 of 105
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Ava CourterLightridge · SRFinish 26:12.426:12.425:10.1—
52Sadie SanchezBriar Woods · SRFinish 26:14.026:14.025:11.6—
53Samina MouhamadStone Bridge · SRFinish 26:21.526:21.525:18.8—
54Zoe DeWittStone Bridge · SRFinish 26:29.526:29.525:26.5—
55Kate LowryTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 26:36.126:36.125:32.8—
56Katherine GarveyLoudoun County · SRFinish 26:50.126:50.125:46.3—
57Alyssa GoldTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 26:56.826:56.825:52.7—
58Maia BrownRiverside · SOFinish 27:03.027:03.025:58.7—
59Mikaela NinouRiverside · FRFinish 27:08.027:08.026:03.5—
60Stella ThorneLightridge · SOFinish 27:09.027:09.026:04.4—
61Saistha DevkotaLightridge · SOFinish 27:10.027:10.026:05.4—
62Leah FrenckLoudoun County · JRFinish 27:18.427:18.426:13.4—
63Savni PatilRiverside · FRFinish 27:25.027:25.026:19.8—
64Alyssa RasinskiStone Bridge · SRFinish 27:25.627:25.626:20.4—
65Sarah DivinsBriar Woods · SRFinish 27:31.127:31.126:25.6—
66Laila AlboleisiTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 27:36.427:36.426:30.7—
67Eileen DomingueTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 27:40.727:40.726:34.9—
68Mahee ParekhLightridge · SOFinish 27:52.427:52.426:46.1—
69Maddie BrownRiverside · FRFinish 27:53.627:53.626:47.2—
70Bree ScanlonTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 27:54.727:54.726:48.3—
71Chloe BealLoudoun County · SRFinish 27:55.927:55.926:49.5—
72Audrey ChietRiverside · FRFinish 28:03.028:03.026:56.3—
73Sadie ByersLoudoun County · JRFinish 28:14.128:14.127:06.9—
74Elle ShinLoudoun County · JRFinish 28:17.528:17.527:10.2—
75Emma ClarkStone Bridge · SOFinish 28:24.528:24.527:16.9—
76Allyson Gordon,Riverside · SOFinish 28:25.128:25.127:17.5—
77Claire MattingleyTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 28:32.828:32.827:24.9—
78Elizabeth RexerStone Bridge · JRFinish 28:43.628:43.627:35.3—
79Trinity VygeStone Bridge · SRFinish 28:43.828:43.827:35.5—
80Ayna ChaudharyBriar Woods · SOFinish 28:59.928:59.927:50.9—
81Peyton LumanRiverside · SRFinish 29:08.129:08.127:58.8—
82Anika JuvvadiLightridge · FRFinish 29:31.529:31.528:21.3—
83Sophia AbdoLightridge · FRFinish 29:34.129:34.128:23.8—
84Whitney VygeStone Bridge · FRFinish 29:41.429:41.428:30.8—
85Ellie IoanouStone Bridge · 8Finish 29:42.229:42.228:31.5—
86Madelyn HomaLoudoun County · FRFinish 30:13.730:13.729:01.8—
87Lindsey RogersBriar Woods · FRFinish 30:47.130:47.129:33.9—
88Clara HoffmanTuscarora (VA) · FRFinish 30:49.530:49.529:36.2—
89Ayla ShapiroStone Bridge · SRFinish 31:48.431:48.430:32.7—
90Roshini MantenaStone Bridge · JRFinish 31:56.631:56.630:40.6—
91Tori RabinowitchStone Bridge · SRFinish 32:05.832:05.830:49.4—
92Rupika ChakkaBriar Woods · SOFinish 32:13.632:13.630:56.9—
93Shelby AquilinaLoudoun County · SRFinish 32:21.032:21.031:04.0—
94Ella WorleyTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 32:24.532:24.531:07.4—
95Lilly ShaffreyBriar Woods · SOFinish 32:37.832:37.831:20.2—
96Natalia LozanoStone Bridge · FRFinish 32:49.032:49.031:30.9—
97Rashmi MantenaStone Bridge · JRFinish 32:49.932:49.931:31.8—
98Juliette MonteleoneTuscarora (VA) · FRFinish 37:31.837:31.836:02.5—
99Alexa GaneyStone Bridge · JRFinish 37:46.037:46.036:16.2—
100Natalie LoganLoudoun County · JRFinish 37:59.037:59.036:28.6—
101Ala AlawadiTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 39:16.139:16.137:42.7—
102Scarlet KellyStone Bridge · JRFinish 39:17.039:17.037:43.6—
103Rianna AwadhStone Bridge · SOFinish 39:35.439:35.438:01.2—
104Sierra BushStone Bridge · SRFinish 39:42.639:42.638:08.1—
105Emily AlawadiTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 45:30.445:30.4UnavailableUnavailable

1 row: time outside the rated range.

Tuscarora Morven Meet, Aug 23, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Not rated. The finish time is outside the range we rate (12:00–45:00 for a 5K), so it has no adjustment or rating.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.