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Nov 6, 2024 · Leesburg, VA

region 4c xc championship 2024

Oatlands Plantation · Historical 2024 results

Other years: 2025 · 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Boys 5000 Meter Run

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B

41 of 41 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +64.4 s course and conditions +89.7 s in-season fitness −25.3 sCourse constant 515.58 (516)Race constant 512.39 (512)

40 used anchors± 5.2 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 488.695Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 40 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 40, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Michael Tafe · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  2. 2 Jack Cassidy · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  3. 3 James Torrible · Woodgrove: Nike Cross Nationals Southeast Regional (Nov 23) · VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · and 4 more
  4. 4 Joe Tafe · Loudoun County: Judges Classic (Oct 5) · Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 14) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Timothy Sweeney · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Javier Sanchez Hightower · Broad Run: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Levente Domonkos · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Nathaniel Wilson · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Carter Williams · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  10. 10 Luca Cavallo · Heritage (Leesburg): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Aaron Forgas · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Isaac Stiltner · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Jack Swartz · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Tyler Elliott · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  15. 15 Kaleb Anglin · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  16. 16 Max Panica · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · 31st Annual Carlisle Invitational (Sep 28) · and 2 more
  17. 17 Cole Luba · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Trials of Miles Opening Night (Aug 30)
  18. 18 Isaac Pingry · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Judges Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  19. 19 Anthony Rodriguez · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  20. 20 Owen Wratten · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Judges Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  21. 21 Andrew Meyrowitz · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · 31st Annual Carlisle Invitational (Sep 28) · and 2 more
  22. 22 Andrew Wells · Broad Run: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Jordan Cates · Loudoun Valley: New Balance RunningLane XC Championships (Dec 7) · VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · and 5 more
  24. 24 Julian Israel · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  25. 25 Jonathan Gibson · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Judges Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  26. 26 Sawyer Clark · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  27. 27 Matthew Ramarge · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  28. 28 Ben Kelly · Tuscarora (VA): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Great American XC Festival Meet Manager (Oct 4) · and 3 more
  29. 29 Owen Chandler · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · 31st Annual Carlisle Invitational (Sep 28) · and 2 more
  30. 30 Chandler Mercer · Woodgrove: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · 31st Annual Carlisle Invitational (Sep 28) · and 2 more
  31. 31 Justin Gillette · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  32. 32 Sam Edwards · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  33. 33 Gabe Cunnington · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  34. 34 Alesandro Alfaro · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  35. 36 Jp Moran · Broad Run: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  36. 37 Jc Valencia · Broad Run: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 14) · and 1 more
  37. 38 Jackson Stoner · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Judges Classic (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  38. 39 Devin Fuller · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  39. 40 Jack McLoughlin · Broad Run: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  40. 41 Aiden Coy · Broad Run: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 14) · and 1 more
Boys results, places shown 1 to 41 of 41 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Michael TafeLoudoun County · SOFinish 16:34.016:34.015:30.4178.5
2Jack CassidyLoudoun County · SOFinish 16:50.616:50.615:46.0173.4
3James TorribleWoodgrove · SRFinish 17:10.517:10.516:04.6167.2
4Joe TafeLoudoun County · SRFinish 17:21.517:21.516:14.9163.7
5Timothy SweeneyLoudoun Valley · SRFinish 17:26.017:26.016:19.1162.3
6Javier Sanchez HightowerBroad Run · SRFinish 17:26.217:26.216:19.3162.3
7Levente DomonkosDominion · SRFinish 17:38.317:38.316:30.6158.5
8Nathaniel WilsonDominion · JRFinish 17:41.317:41.316:33.5157.5
9Carter WilliamsLoudoun County · JRFinish 17:46.517:46.516:38.3155.9
10Luca CavalloHeritage (Leesburg) · SOFinish 18:03.318:03.316:54.0150.7
11Aaron ForgasDominion · SRFinish 18:04.418:04.416:55.1150.3
12Isaac StiltnerLoudoun Valley · SOFinish 18:08.618:08.616:59.0149.0
13Jack SwartzLoudoun Valley · FRFinish 18:09.018:09.016:59.4148.9
14Tyler ElliottWoodgrove · JRFinish 18:09.018:09.016:59.4148.9
15Kaleb AnglinWoodgrove · SOFinish 18:13.318:13.317:03.4147.6
16Max PanicaLoudoun Valley · JRFinish 18:15.718:15.717:05.7146.8
17Cole LubaHeritage (Leesburg) · SRFinish 18:15.918:15.917:05.8146.8
18Isaac PingryHeritage (Leesburg) · JRFinish 18:16.018:16.017:05.9146.7
19Anthony RodriguezDominion · JRFinish 18:19.118:19.117:08.9145.7
20Owen WrattenHeritage (Leesburg) · JRFinish 18:25.318:25.317:14.6143.8
21Andrew MeyrowitzWoodgrove · JRFinish 18:32.018:32.017:20.9141.7
22Andrew WellsBroad Run · SOFinish 18:33.618:33.617:22.4141.2
23Jordan CatesLoudoun Valley · SRFinish 18:34.418:34.417:23.2141.0
24Julian IsraelLoudoun Valley · SRFinish 18:42.318:42.317:30.6138.5
25Jonathan GibsonHeritage (Leesburg) · JRFinish 18:53.418:53.417:41.0135.0
26Sawyer ClarkLoudoun Valley · SOFinish 19:02.819:02.817:49.7132.1
27Matthew RamargeLoudoun County · SRFinish 19:06.519:06.517:53.2131.0
28Ben KellyTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 19:13.719:13.717:59.9128.7
29Owen ChandlerWoodgrove · SRFinish 19:16.719:16.718:02.8127.8
30Chandler MercerWoodgrove · SRFinish 19:18.519:18.518:04.4127.2
31Justin GilletteDominion · JRFinish 19:20.919:20.918:06.7126.5
32Sam EdwardsLoudoun County · SOFinish 19:26.019:26.018:11.4124.9
33Gabe CunningtonLoudoun County · JRFinish 19:32.519:32.518:17.5122.9
34Alesandro AlfaroDominion · SRFinish 19:34.519:34.518:19.4122.2
35Kohen AndersonHeritage (Leesburg) · SRFinish 19:38.919:38.918:23.5120.9
36Jp MoranBroad Run · SRFinish 20:04.220:04.218:47.2112.9
37Jc ValenciaBroad Run · JRFinish 20:07.720:07.718:50.4111.9
38Jackson StonerHeritage (Leesburg) · JRFinish 20:09.020:09.018:51.7111.5
39Devin FullerDominion · SRFinish 20:33.320:33.319:14.4103.9
40Jack McLoughlinBroad Run · FRFinish 20:46.120:46.119:26.599.9
41Aiden CoyBroad Run · SRFinish 22:14.322:14.320:48.972.4

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls 5000 Meter Run

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D

43 of 43 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +79.8 s course and conditions +107.5 s in-season fitness −27.7 sCourse constant 534.34 (534)Race constant 528.47 (528)

41 used anchors± 12.0 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.063Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 41 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 41, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Fallon Fetterolf · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Catherine Moschera · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Anna Ellison Downey · Heritage (Leesburg): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Sophia Price · Heritage (Leesburg): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  5. 5 Ella Phelps · Loudoun Valley: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Kira Hunt · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Great American XC Festival Meet Manager (Oct 4) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Caroline Taylor · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 14) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Ashton Gordon · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16)
  9. 9 Kalie Brown · Loudoun County: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  10. 10 Katherine Sillman · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  11. 11 Ella Quist · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  12. 12 Ava Wilson · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 4 more
  13. 13 Christabel Agyeman-Duah · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  14. 14 Lilly Gray · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  15. 15 Adriana Miranda · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · 31st Annual Carlisle Invitational (Sep 28) · and 2 more
  16. 16 Audrey Yemo · Tuscarora (VA): VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  17. 17 Ariya Shah · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · 31st Annual Carlisle Invitational (Sep 28) · and 2 more
  18. 18 Abigail Rhoads · Dominion: Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 14) · Trials of Miles Opening Night (Aug 30)
  19. 19 Hannah Yonas · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  20. 20 Kate Verry · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · 31st Annual Carlisle Invitational (Sep 28) · and 2 more
  21. 21 Penelope Seemiller · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · 31st Annual Carlisle Invitational (Sep 28) · and 2 more
  22. 22 Taylor Nishiyama · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · 31st Annual Carlisle Invitational (Sep 28) · and 2 more
  23. 23 Lindsay Miller · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  24. 24 Emilia Wallace · Broad Run: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  25. 25 Hannah Mottaghi · Dominion: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  26. 26 Julia Chung · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Trials of Miles Opening Night (Aug 30)
  27. 27 Sophia Hoopingarner · John Champe: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  28. 28 Mati Blackford · Broad Run: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  29. 29 Eva Gerard · Broad Run: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  30. 30 Stella King · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Trials of Miles Opening Night (Aug 30)
  31. 31 Mary Homa · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 14) · and 1 more
  32. 32 Julia Mendez · Loudoun County: Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 14) · Hood College HS Invitational (Sep 7)
  33. 33 Ava Prendergast · Broad Run: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 1 more
  34. 35 Lydia Wallace · Broad Run: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 14) · and 1 more
  35. 37 Sadie Byers · Loudoun County: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 14)
  36. 38 Emmaline Freeman · Broad Run: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  37. 39 Lilly Lehmbeck · Woodgrove: VHSL Class 4 State XC Meet (Nov 16)
  38. 40 Sarah Colquitt · Broad Run: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 2 more
  39. 41 Cacey Campbell · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19) · Trials of Miles Opening Night (Aug 30)
  40. 42 Claire Nicholson · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19)
  41. 43 Faith Burns · Heritage (Leesburg): Third Battle Invitational (Oct 19)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 43 of 43 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Fallon FetterolfLoudoun County · SOFinish 20:02.820:02.818:31.4121.6
2Catherine MoscheraTuscarora (VA) · SOFinish 20:52.320:52.319:17.1106.4
3Anna Ellison DowneyHeritage (Leesburg) · SRFinish 21:04.521:04.519:28.4102.6
4Sophia PriceHeritage (Leesburg) · SOFinish 21:09.621:09.619:33.1101.0
5Ella PhelpsLoudoun Valley · JRFinish 21:11.221:11.219:34.5100.5
6Kira HuntTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 21:22.121:22.119:44.697.2
7Caroline TaylorDominion · FRFinish 21:24.221:24.219:46.696.5
8Ashton GordonWoodgrove · FRFinish 21:33.421:33.419:55.193.7
9Kalie BrownLoudoun County · JRFinish 21:34.921:34.919:56.593.2
10Katherine SillmanTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 21:52.821:52.820:13.087.7
11Ella QuistTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 22:05.322:05.320:24.583.9
12Ava WilsonTuscarora (VA) · SRFinish 22:15.622:15.620:34.180.7
13Christabel Agyeman-DuahTuscarora (VA) · FRFinish 22:17.222:17.220:35.680.2
14Lilly GrayDominion · SOFinish 22:31.722:31.720:48.975.8
15Adriana MirandaWoodgrove · SRFinish 22:49.022:49.021:05.070.4
16Audrey YemoTuscarora (VA) · JRFinish 23:02.523:02.521:17.466.3
17Ariya ShahWoodgrove · SRFinish 23:17.623:17.621:31.461.6
18Abigail RhoadsDominion · FRFinish 23:40.923:40.921:52.954.4
19Hannah YonasDominion · SOFinish 23:43.123:43.121:54.953.8
20Kate VerryWoodgrove · JRFinish 23:47.523:47.521:59.052.4
21Penelope SeemillerWoodgrove · FRFinish 23:55.123:55.122:06.050.1
22Taylor NishiyamaWoodgrove · FRFinish 23:57.123:57.122:07.949.4
23Lindsay MillerDominion · SRFinish 24:08.224:08.222:18.146.0
24Emilia WallaceBroad Run · SRFinish 24:32.924:32.922:40.938.4
25Hannah MottaghiDominion · JRFinish 24:39.524:39.522:47.036.4
26Julia ChungHeritage (Leesburg) · SRFinish 24:43.224:43.222:50.535.2
27Sophia HoopingarnerJohn Champe · SRFinish 24:50.124:50.122:56.833.1
28Mati BlackfordBroad Run · FRFinish 24:52.724:52.722:59.232.3
29Eva GerardBroad Run · FRFinish 24:53.624:53.623:00.032.1
30Stella KingHeritage (Leesburg) · SOFinish 25:00.725:00.723:06.629.8
31Mary HomaLoudoun County · JRFinish 25:57.525:57.523:59.112.4
32Julia MendezLoudoun County · JRFinish 26:07.426:07.424:08.39.3
33Ava PrendergastBroad Run · FRFinish 26:13.826:13.824:14.27.3
34Ariella DuPlessisLoudoun County · FRFinish 26:23.326:23.324:23.04.4
35Lydia WallaceBroad Run · SRFinish 26:51.326:51.324:48.8—
36Madelyn HomaLoudoun County · SOFinish 27:02.627:02.624:59.3—
37Sadie ByersLoudoun County · SRFinish 27:26.727:26.725:21.5—
38Emmaline FreemanBroad Run · JRFinish 27:58.227:58.225:50.7—
39Lilly LehmbeckWoodgrove · JRFinish 28:00.728:00.725:53.0—
40Sarah ColquittBroad Run · JRFinish 29:15.529:15.527:02.0—
41Cacey CampbellHeritage (Leesburg) · JRFinish 29:52.929:52.927:36.6—
42Claire NicholsonHeritage (Leesburg) · FRFinish 31:47.631:47.629:22.6—
43Faith BurnsHeritage (Leesburg) · FRFinish 32:20.432:20.429:52.9—

region 4c xc championship 2024, Nov 6, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.