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Nov 11, 2023 · Sterling, VA

Arrows Invitational

Algonkian Regional Park · Historical 2023 results

Other years: 2022

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 153.9), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

1 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Arrows Algonkian Regional Park, Sterling, VA - 11/11/2023 High School Girls 5k

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C

38 of 38 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −49.6 s course and conditions −27.4 s in-season fitness −22.1 sCourse constant 483.16 (483)Race constant 481.05 (481)

35 used anchors± 6.0 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 35 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 35, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Eden Alexander · Saint Sebastian Academy: Foot Locker Championships South Region (Nov 25) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · and 4 more
  2. 2 Julia Seeley · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 24) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Ava Vandeventer · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 24) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Delaney Turk · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  5. 5 Natalie McCormick · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  6. 6 Esther Shipley · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 24) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Isabelle Horne · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  8. 8 Annie McCormick · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  9. 9 Lily Harrington · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  10. 10 Hannah Greiner · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  11. 11 Lydia Wheaton · Saint Sebastian Academy: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 24) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  12. 12 Sarah Moser · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  13. 13 Emily Seeley · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 24) · and 3 more
  14. 14 Nicolette Via · Fairfax Home School: FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  15. 15 Josephine Tromans · Dominion: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  16. 16 Cecilia Cline · Virginia Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Lydia Faunce · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  18. 18 Kerri Elizabeth Robinson · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  19. 19 AnnaGrace Mansfield · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  20. 20 Emma Pipes · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  21. 21 Grace Rempe · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  22. 22 Isabella Kavookjian · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 24) · and 3 more
  23. 24 Cassidy Ludke · Flames Homeschool Sports: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4)
  24. 25 Lucy Evich · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · Wolverine XC Invitational (Sep 30) · and 1 more
  25. 26 Naomi Dieken · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4)
  26. 27 Micaela Stickelmaier · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  27. 28 Kristie Tan · Virginia Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  28. 29 Cambry Glassett · Covenant Christian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  29. 30 Marcail White · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
  30. 31 Amber Fernandez · Covenant Christian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  31. 33 Mattea Dieken · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4)
  32. 34 Clare O'neill · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4)
  33. 35 Cassia Orndorff · Flames Homeschool Sports: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Nov 4)
  34. 36 Abigail Grossman · Covenant Christian Academy: Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance (Sep 2)
  35. 37 Margot Price · Dominion: FHS Invitational (Oct 12)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 38 of 38 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Eden AlexanderSaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 18:55.518:55.519:27.2105.1
2Julia SeeleySaint Sebastian Academy · SRFinish 19:11.919:11.919:44.099.5
3Ava VandeventerSaint Sebastian Academy · SOFinish 19:37.919:37.920:10.790.6
4Delaney TurkFairfax Home School · SRFinish 20:24.120:24.120:58.274.7
5Natalie McCormickSpire · JRFinish 20:50.420:50.421:25.365.7
6Esther ShipleySaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 21:01.021:01.021:36.262.1
7Isabelle HorneSpire · FRFinish 21:13.621:13.621:49.157.8
8Annie McCormickSpire · SRFinish 21:21.521:21.521:57.255.1
9Lily HarringtonSpire · SOFinish 21:30.321:30.322:06.352.1
10Hannah GreinerSpire · 8Finish 21:33.921:33.922:10.050.8
11Lydia WheatonSaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 21:40.021:40.022:16.348.7
12Sarah MoserSpire · SOFinish 22:41.422:41.423:19.427.7
13Emily SeeleySaint Sebastian Academy · SOFinish 22:44.222:44.223:22.226.7
14Nicolette ViaFairfax Home School · SRFinish 22:51.622:51.623:29.824.2
15Josephine TromansDominion · JRFinish 23:09.823:09.823:48.618.0
16Cecilia ClineVirginia Academy · FRFinish 23:13.723:13.723:52.616.6
17Lydia FaunceSpire · 8Finish 23:16.523:16.523:55.415.7
18Kerri Elizabeth RobinsonSpire · SRFinish 23:25.223:25.224:04.412.7
19AnnaGrace MansfieldSpire · SOFinish 23:29.623:29.624:08.911.2
20Emma PipesFairfax Home School · JRFinish 23:32.023:32.024:11.410.4
21Grace RempeFairfax Home School · FRFinish 23:34.823:34.824:14.39.4
22Isabella KavookjianSaint Sebastian Academy · SOFinish 23:37.923:37.924:17.48.3
23Sophia VellecoFairfax Home School · SRFinish 24:04.624:04.624:44.9—
24Cassidy LudkeFlames Homeschool Sports · FRFinish 24:08.124:08.124:48.5—
25Lucy EvichSaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 24:11.624:11.624:52.1—
26Naomi DiekenSaint Sebastian Academy · SRFinish 24:28.624:28.625:09.6—
27Micaela StickelmaierFairfax Home School · SRFinish 25:01.125:01.125:43.0—
28Kristie TanVirginia Academy · SOFinish 25:13.125:13.125:55.3—
29Cambry GlassettCovenant Christian Academy · JRFinish 25:19.525:19.526:01.9—
30Marcail WhiteFairfax Home School · SOFinish 27:06.227:06.227:51.5—
31Amber FernandezCovenant Christian Academy · SRFinish 28:14.328:14.329:01.5—
32Milaina MatveevaFlames Homeschool Sports · JRFinish 29:53.729:53.730:43.7—
33Mattea DiekenSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 30:42.130:42.131:33.5—
34Clare O'neillSaint Sebastian Academy · FRFinish 30:57.830:57.831:49.6—
35Cassia OrndorffFlames Homeschool Sports · FRFinish 34:04.934:04.935:01.9—
36Abigail GrossmanCovenant Christian Academy · SOFinish 34:16.734:16.735:14.1—
37Margot PriceDominion · FRFinish 34:20.634:20.635:18.1—
38Abigail OlsenFairfax Home School · JRFinish 34:33.634:33.635:31.4—

Arrows Invitational, Nov 11, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.