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Nov 12, 2022 · Sterling, VA

Arrows Invitational

Algonkian Regional Park · Historical 2022 results

Other years: 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 153.2), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

1 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls Varsity 5k

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C

59 of 59 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −32.8 s course and conditions −9.6 s in-season fitness −23.2 sCourse constant 489.16 (489)Race constant 486.14 (486)

41 used anchors± 8.2 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 41 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 41, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Eden Alexander · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Julia Seeley · Saint Sebastian Academy: Pole Green XC Classic (Sep 10) · Hood College HS Invitational (Sep 3)
  3. 3 Lily Harrington · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  4. 4 Natalie McCormick · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  5. 5 Delaney Turk · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  6. 6 Annie McCormick · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  7. 7 Ava Vandeventer · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Esther Shipley · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Miriam Crowder · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · Pole Green XC Classic (Sep 10) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Catherine Dunch · Oakcrest School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  11. 12 Sydney Thomas · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  12. 13 Ally Beckenhauer · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  13. 14 Sara Briggs · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  14. 15 Lydia Faunce · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  15. 18 Josephine Lively · Oakcrest School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10)
  16. 19 Hannah Greiner · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  17. 20 Regina Baird · Oakcrest School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  18. 21 Naomi Dieken · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  19. 22 Catherine Glover · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  20. 24 Lianor Sweda · Oakcrest School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  21. 25 Margaret Owen · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  22. 26 Isabella Kavookjian · Saint Sebastian Academy: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  23. 27 Emily Seeley · Saint Sebastian Academy: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  24. 29 Jirah Comeaux · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  25. 30 Lucy Evich · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  26. 31 Lilly Vale · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  27. 32 Kate Cahill · Oakcrest School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  28. 33 Tessa Bailey · Oakcrest School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  29. 34 Bethany Diller · Oakcrest School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  30. 35 Sarah Moser · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  31. 38 Claire Millard · Oakcrest School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 10) · Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  32. 39 Amelia Magee · Oakcrest School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  33. 41 Kerri Elizabeth Robinson · Spire: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  34. 42 Ava Ferry · Oakcrest School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  35. 44 Haddie Anderson · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  36. 46 Micaela Stickelmaier · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  37. 47 Cambry Glassett · Covenant Christian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  38. 50 Amber Fernandez · Covenant Christian Academy: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  39. 55 Allison Fenske · Ad Fontes Academy: FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
  40. 56 Zoe Larson · Oakcrest School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29)
  41. 57 Abigail Olsen · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and NVIAC Championships (Oct 29) · FHS Invitational (Oct 14)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 59 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Eden AlexanderSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 19:05.619:05.619:20.6105.6
2Julia SeeleySaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 20:06.120:06.120:21.985.2
3Lily HarringtonSpire · Grade not recordedFinish 20:32.520:32.520:48.676.3
4Natalie McCormickSpire · Grade not recordedFinish 20:32.920:32.920:49.076.1
5Delaney TurkFairfax Home School · Grade not recordedFinish 20:36.920:36.920:53.174.8
6Annie McCormickSpire · Grade not recordedFinish 20:58.020:58.021:14.567.6
7Ava VandeventerSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 21:39.921:39.921:56.953.5
8Esther ShipleySaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 21:43.721:43.722:00.852.2
9Miriam CrowderSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 21:52.021:52.022:09.249.4
10Catherine DunchOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 21:58.121:58.122:15.347.4
11Grace HawkFCA Homeschool · Grade not recordedFinish 22:20.722:20.722:38.239.7
12Sydney ThomasSpire · Grade not recordedFinish 22:25.122:25.122:42.738.2
13Ally BeckenhauerFairfax Home School · Grade not recordedFinish 22:38.222:38.222:56.033.8
14Sara BriggsFairfax Home School · Grade not recordedFinish 22:56.922:56.923:14.927.5
15Lydia FaunceSpire · Grade not recordedFinish 22:58.922:58.923:16.926.8
16Amelia HawkFCA Homeschool · Grade not recordedFinish 23:00.423:00.423:18.526.3
17Trinity AlexanderSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 23:05.923:05.923:24.024.5
18Josephine LivelyOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 23:07.923:07.923:26.123.8
19Hannah GreinerSpire · Grade not recordedFinish 23:09.723:09.723:27.923.2
20Regina BairdOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 23:15.323:15.323:33.621.3
21Naomi DiekenSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 23:16.223:16.223:34.521.0
22Catherine GloverFairfax Home School · Grade not recordedFinish 23:21.923:21.923:40.219.1
23Octavia StaatFCA Homeschool · Grade not recordedFinish 23:22.323:22.323:40.618.9
24Lianor SwedaOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 23:40.823:40.823:59.412.7
25Margaret OwenSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 23:45.223:45.224:03.811.2
26Isabella KavookjianSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 23:45.823:45.824:04.511.0
27Emily SeeleySaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 23:52.423:52.424:11.18.8
28Rachel ThorntonFCA Homeschool · Grade not recordedFinish 23:55.423:55.424:14.27.7
29Jirah ComeauxFairfax Home School · Grade not recordedFinish 24:01.524:01.524:20.45.7
30Lucy EvichSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 24:18.624:18.624:37.7—
31Lilly ValeSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 24:23.524:23.524:42.6—
32Kate CahillOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 24:23.824:23.824:42.9—
33Tessa BaileyOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 24:29.724:29.724:48.9—
34Bethany DillerOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 24:34.524:34.524:53.8—
35Sarah MoserSpire · Grade not recordedFinish 24:34.724:34.724:54.0—
36Isabel HaslamOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 24:35.224:35.224:54.5—
37Teri CrnkovichOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 25:01.725:01.725:21.3—
38Claire MillardOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 25:08.325:08.325:28.0—
39Amelia MageeOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 25:10.425:10.425:30.2—
40Caroline ThorntonFCA Homeschool · Grade not recordedFinish 25:11.325:11.325:31.1—
41Kerri Elizabeth RobinsonSpire · Grade not recordedFinish 25:31.625:31.625:51.6—
42Ava FerryOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 25:50.125:50.126:10.4—
43Ellie MarxOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 26:47.126:47.127:08.1—
44Haddie AndersonFairfax Home School · Grade not recordedFinish 26:51.326:51.327:12.4—
45Emma LarsonFCA Homeschool · Grade not recordedFinish 26:53.326:53.327:14.4—
46Micaela StickelmaierFairfax Home School · Grade not recordedFinish 27:05.727:05.727:27.0—
47Cambry GlassettCovenant Christian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 27:29.527:29.527:51.1—
48Lili CeciFCA Homeschool · Grade not recordedFinish 27:32.827:32.827:54.4—
49CARTER, JuliaSt. James Thunder XC · Grade not recordedFinish 28:51.328:51.329:13.9—
50Amber FernandezCovenant Christian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 28:54.228:54.229:16.9—
Show all 59 results (9 more)Showing all 59 results · hide rows 51–59
Girls results, rows 51 to 59 of 59
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Sophia EckelOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 29:16.329:16.329:39.3—
52Anne GressOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 30:10.330:10.330:34.0—
53Veronica BerryOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 30:32.130:32.130:56.1—
54Madelyn CabrejoFCA Homeschool · Grade not recordedFinish 30:35.530:35.530:59.5—
55Allison FenskeAd Fontes Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 31:11.631:11.631:36.1—
56Zoe LarsonOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 32:02.932:02.932:28.1—
57Abigail OlsenFairfax Home School · Grade not recordedFinish 32:53.632:53.633:19.4—
58Covadonga UriaOakcrest School · Grade not recordedFinish 34:44.534:44.535:11.8—
59Lainey GoodspeedSaint Sebastian Academy · Grade not recordedFinish 36:28.636:28.636:57.2—

Arrows Invitational, Nov 12, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Not matched. Rated from its race’s adjustment, but not matched to an athlete, so it does not count toward a leaderboard or a team.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.