Record what went in.
Every forecast records its model version, the runners it covers, its training cutoff and when it was calculated. No same-day or later results can enter it.
NovaRunners Projections
Team standings projected from ratings. Each projection has its own page, which shows the meets most ratings rest on.
All seasons: 11 projections · newest meet first · unofficial and deterministic, with no probabilities
| Date | Meet | Calculated |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 season · 11 projections | ||
| Oct 28, 2026 | Northern Region 6D Championship 2026Fairfax Station, VA | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Occoquan Region 6C Championship 2026Fairfax Station, VA | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Capital/Colonial District Meet 2026Mechanicsville, VA | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Cedar Run District Championships 2026Nokesville, VA | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Concorde District CC Championship 2026Fairfax Station, VA | Oct 17, 2026 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Liberty District CC Championship 2026Fairfax Station, VA | Oct 17, 2026 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Patriot District CC Championship 2026Fairfax Station, VA | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | The VA XC Showcase 2026Mechanicsville, VA | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Albemarle Invitational 2026Earlysville, VA | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Third Battle Invitational 2026Winchester, VA | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Oatlands Invitational 2026Leesburg, VA | Sep 25, 2026 |
How projections are kept honest
Keep the misses.
Compare the projection with the results, team by team. Show the errors, missing histories and coverage, not only the calls that worked.
Separate replay from foresight.
Any change made after a projection is calculated is labeled. A reconstruction of a meet already run is labeled a retrospective reconstruction, never presented as a projection.