NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
Third Battle Invitational 2026
Third Battle Invitational, Sat Oct 10, 2026, Winchester. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 6.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each registered team’s seven highest-rated runners are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex, then scored like a cross-country meet. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
Actual results: Third Battle Invitational 2026 results
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their 2026 season-best Statistical Rating on the day, the value the team boards use: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. A team’s roster is the runners whose rated 2026 races were for that team; there is no 2025 fallback, so a runner without a rated 2026 race is not shown. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Registered teams | 66 | 66 |
| Rated runners on their rosters | 535 | 438 |
| 2026 rating (one meet · two or more) | 535250 · 285 | 438196 · 242 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 49 of 66 | 48 of 66 |
| Teams unranked | 17 | 18 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 489.948 | 495.254 |
2026 ratings come from 14 admitted meets: Adidas XC Challenge, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Great American XC Festival, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational, Pole Green - "The Southern" XC Invite by ECE, Pole Green XC Classic, StallionsXC Invitational, Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic, Wolverine XC Invitational. Ratings are the 2026 v7 season bests as of 2026-10-06; the team list was captured 2026-10-06. The team list does not say boys or girls, so every registered team is in both fields.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Boys · Third Battle 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Lake Braddock | 75 | 8-9-12-15-31 (45)(74) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Lake Braddock
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| 02 | West Potomac | 126 | 4-7-21-27-67 (75)(149) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for West Potomac
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| 03 | West Springfield | 142 | 14-25-28-32-43 (44)(50) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for West Springfield
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| 04 | C.G. Woodson | 151 | 6-23-36-38-48 (66)(78) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for C.G. Woodson
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| 05 | Patriot | 276 | 2-41-46-91-96 (128)(153) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Patriot
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| 06 | Colgan | 287 | 24-26-51-68-118 (136)(218) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Colgan
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| 07 | Thomas Jefferson S&T | 319 | 5-17-40-110-147 (157)(183) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Thomas Jefferson S&T
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| 08 | Loudoun County | 334 | 1-19-83-92-139 (148)(267) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Loudoun County
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| 09 | Loudoun Valley | 342 | 10-47-64-88-133 (200)(230) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Loudoun Valley
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| 10 | Jefferson (WV) | 357 | 18-37-56-119-127 (151)(160) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Jefferson (WV)
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| 11 | Heritage (Leesburg) | 404 | 30-77-85-95-117 (122)(204) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Heritage (Leesburg)
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| 12 | Thomas Edison | 406 | 29-34-109-111-123 (162)(167) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Thomas Edison
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| 13 | Oakton | 441 | 55-57-101-108-120 (166)(207) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Oakton
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| 14 | George C. Marshall | 479 | 53-73-86-99-168 (241)(251) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for George C. Marshall
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| 15 | Langley | 491 | 62-76-98-114-141 (234)(237) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Langley
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| 16 | McLean | 496 | 72-79-100-103-142 (155)(156) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for McLean
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| 17 | Tuscarora (VA) | 515 | 16-49-125-144-181 (187)(268) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Tuscarora (VA)
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| 18 | Hidden Valley | 540 | 3-22-35-199-281 (308)(322) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Hidden Valley
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| 19 | Dominion | 597 | 42-63-137-175-180 (182)(201) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Dominion
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| 20 | Independence | 636 | 61-90-104-178-203 (244)(246) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Independence
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| 21 | Centreville | 643 | 59-97-152-158-177 (212)(258) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Centreville
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| 22 | Sherando | 644 | 52-112-140-169-171 (190)(242) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Sherando
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| 23 | Mount Vernon | 664 | 58-69-107-173-257 (286)(293) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Mount Vernon
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| 24 | Westfield | 671 | 54-143-146-163-165 (198)(240) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Westfield
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| 25 | Lightridge | 692 | 82-124-126-174-186 (189)(243) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Lightridge
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| 26 | James Wood | 705 | 71-113-154-179-188 (194)(225) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James Wood
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| 27 | Clarke County | 709 | 20-94-159-216-220 (235)(271) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Clarke County
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| 28 | Riverside | 717 | 60-131-138-161-227 (239)(265) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Riverside
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| 29 | Stone Bridge | 724 | 102-115-129-150-228 (253)(270) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Stone Bridge
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| 30 | Brentsville District | 732 | 81-89-132-192-238 (294)(316) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Brentsville District
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| 31 | James Madison | 742 | 80-87-135-219-221 (223)(231) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James Madison
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| 32 | South County | 752 | 11-13-206-259-263 (277)(282) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for South County
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| 33 | Washington-Liberty | 789 | 93-134-176-191-195 (205)(260) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Washington-Liberty
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| 34 | Brooke Point | 877 | 65-130-145-250-287 (296)(301) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Brooke Point
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| 35 | Herndon | 890 | 39-116-164-283-288 (312)(315) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Herndon
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| 36 | Kettle Run | 987 | 33-184-217-261-292 (305)(321) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Kettle Run
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| 37 | Spotswood | 1016 | 70-214-232-245-255 (298)(319) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Spotswood
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| 38 | Falls Church | 1022 | 84-185-247-252-254 (275)(310) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Falls Church
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| 39 | Warren County | 1033 | 121-197-211-215-289 (295)(325) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Warren County
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| 40 | Meridian | 1087 | 170-208-209-210-290 (300)(311) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Meridian
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| 41 | Cave Spring | 1102 | 172-202-224-248-256 (266)(269) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Cave Spring
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| 42 | Fairfax | 1159 | 193-213-226-249-278 (302)(317) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Fairfax
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| 43 | Potomac Falls | 1203 | 105-222-272-291-313 (326)(336) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Potomac Falls
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| 44 | Yorktown | 1232 | 196-229-236-274-297 (307)(328) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Yorktown
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| 45 | Hayfield Secondary School | 1329 | 233-264-273-279-280 (284)(285) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Hayfield Secondary School
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| 46 | Strasburg | 1440 | 106-327-334-335-338 (339)(340) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Strasburg
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| 47 | Osbourn Park | 1529 | 262-306-314-323-324 (329)(331) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Osbourn Park
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| 48 | John Champe | 1539 | 276-304-309-320-330 (333) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for John Champe
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| 49 | Rock Ridge | 1589 | 299-303-318-332-337 | 2026: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Rock Ridge
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Boys · top 100 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Michael TafeLoudoun County | 185.0 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Preston SpanglerPatriot | 179.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Enzo ConiglioneHidden Valley | 176.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Daniel BlackWest Potomac | 172.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Steven WinesThomas Jefferson S&T | 171.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Isaac SchoolsC.G. Woodson | 171.1 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Nico DiffenbachWest Potomac | 169.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Matt WaltersLake Braddock | 169.7 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Grayson RichardsLake Braddock | 168.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Isaac StiltnerLoudoun Valley | 168.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Alexander FeatherlySouth County | 167.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 12 | Calvin BensonLake Braddock | 167.0 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Benjamin KosowskiSouth County | 166.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Jonas YiengstWest Springfield | 166.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Maverick MagruderLake Braddock | 166.7 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 16 | Caleb LeangTuscarora (VA) | 166.3 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Jack OliverThomas Jefferson S&T | 166.1 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Shane BurkhardtJefferson (WV) | 163.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Jack CassidyLoudoun County | 163.1 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Landon HortonClarke County | 162.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Andrew EdwardsWest Potomac | 162.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Wyatt BealeHidden Valley | 162.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Noah LeahyC.G. Woodson | 161.6 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Emory KiernanColgan | 161.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Caleb JamesWest Springfield | 161.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Carson TaylorColgan | 161.1 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Trent LyklingWest Potomac | 160.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Josh BlantonWest Springfield | 160.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Jack DowneyThomas Edison | 160.7 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Luca CavalloHeritage (Leesburg) | 160.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Noah DeLukeLake Braddock | 160.4 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Mark GaydosWest Springfield | 159.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Eliot VillagomezKettle Run | 159.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Christian AngleThomas Edison | 159.1 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Noah StewartHidden Valley | 159.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Charles PentonC.G. Woodson | 158.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Jordan BakerJefferson (WV) | 158.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Christian KellyC.G. Woodson | 157.8 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Baden GearyHerndon | 157.5 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Thomas KimThomas Jefferson S&T | 157.3 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Christopher "Jai" HarrisPatriot | 157.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Daniel LonderganDominion | 156.6 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 43 | Kyler RobertsWest Springfield | 156.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Kent DelarosaWest Springfield | 156.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Tyson CulverLake Braddock | 155.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Connor LynchPatriot | 155.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Jack SwartzLoudoun Valley | 155.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Charlie PentonC.G. Woodson | 155.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 49 | William WagenbachTuscarora (VA) | 154.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 50 | Elias DeanWest Springfield | 154.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Jackson SmithColgan | 154.0 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 52 | William NorrisSherando | 153.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 53 | Jonathan PeedGeorge C. Marshall | 153.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Lucas BarillasWestfield | 153.0 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Colin RiversOakton | 152.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 56 | Zarin JoyslinJefferson (WV) | 151.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Roman NallOakton | 151.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Adrian Morales-UrrutiaMount Vernon | 150.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 59 | Samuel LappMillbrook | 150.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 60 | Zacchaeus PostCentreville | 150.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Emmett RaeRiverside | 150.2 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 62 | Connor RoutsonIndependence | 150.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 63 | Nial NygilLangley | 149.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 64 | Nathan HathawayDominion | 149.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Sawyer ClarkLoudoun Valley | 149.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Colin KrausBrooke Point | 149.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Daniel ObenschainC.G. Woodson | 149.3 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 68 | Brad Lee KhanerWest Potomac | 149.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 69 | Mason RiggleColgan | 148.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Matthew BrownMount Vernon | 148.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Liam PetersonSpotswood | 148.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Nathan ReynoldsJames Wood | 148.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Bryce YangMcLean | 147.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Jason SmithGeorge C. Marshall | 147.4 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Marek MankaLake Braddock | 147.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | James GallagherWest Potomac | 147.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Kiernan StephensonLangley | 146.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Adam LevineHeritage (Leesburg) | 146.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 79 | Kieran TennantC.G. Woodson | 146.0 | 2026 · 4 meets | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Jackson WinnMcLean | 145.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Grayson McNabneyJames Madison | 145.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Jonas WestermanBrentsville District | 145.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 83 | Timothy SigmundLightridge | 144.4 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Sam EdwardsLoudoun County | 144.1 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Patrick VerasinFalls Church | 144.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Colton MachHeritage (Leesburg) | 143.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Fynn WottawahGeorge C. Marshall | 143.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 88 | James Van HornJames Madison | 143.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Luke BratrudLoudoun Valley | 143.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 90 | Arthur MolnarBrentsville District | 143.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Tyler WeberIndependence | 143.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Jaden LasterPatriot | 143.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Dylan LimC.G. Woodson | 143.3 | 2026 · 3 meets | Outside team’s seven |
| 94 | Ryan TaltonLoudoun County | 143.3 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Johnny StevensLake Braddock | 143.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | Outside team’s seven |
| 96 | Alessandro PiosaWashington-Liberty | 142.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Corbin DykeClarke County | 142.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Brandon MorenoHeritage (Leesburg) | 142.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 99 | David BeckwithPatriot | 141.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Carson BarnesCentreville | 141.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among rated runners in this projection’s field, including runners on unranked teams. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS
17 teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
- Park View (Sterling)4 rated
- Manassas Park3 rated
- John R. Lewis2 rated
- Millbrook1 rated
- Admiral Richard E. Byrd Middle S0 rated
- Culpeper County0 rated
- Daniel Morgan Middle School0 rated
- Eukarya Christian Academy0 rated
- Fauquier0 rated
- Frederick County Middle School0 rated
- James Wood Middle School0 rated
- Johnson-Williams Middle School0 rated
- Legacy Christian Academy MS0 rated
- Liberty (Bealeton)0 rated
- Powhatan School MS0 rated
- Robert E. Aylor Middle School0 rated
- Skyline0 rated
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Registration does not say who runs Varsity A, B or JV, so each registered team’s rated runners are placed in one field. This is not an official division result.
- Registered teams are not entry lists. A roster here is the team’s runners with a rated 2026 race for it; its seven highest-rated may not be the seven who run, and new or unrated runners are not shown.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Third Battle course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.