NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
Oatlands Invitational 2026
Oatlands Invitational, Sat Sep 26, 2026, Leesburg. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Sep 25.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each entered team’s seven highest-rated runners are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex, then scored like a cross-country meet. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
Actual results: Oatlands Invitational 2026 results
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Most ratings follow two rules (Method). A runner with at least one identified 2026 meet gets a 2026 rating. A runner without one gets the 2025 season best if it rests on two reliable A–C meets, shifted onto the 2026 scale by the median change of runners rated in both seasons. That shift mixes a year of development with the two seasons’ different centring, so it is not an improvement estimate.
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Entrants | 2,159 | 1,471 |
| Rated | 764 | 585 |
| 2026 rating (one meet · two or more) | 416404 · 12 | 305297 · 8 |
| 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | 348shift −0.88% · 842 runners in both | 279shift +0.69% · 658 runners in both |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 77 of 120 | 63 of 115 |
| Teams unranked | 43 | 52 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 488.152 | 493.738 |
2026 ratings come from 11 admitted meets: Arrow B Ranch Invitational, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Griffin Invitational, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Pole Green XC Classic, StallionsXC Invitational, The George Brown Invitational, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, UVA Wise High School Invitational, Wolverine XC Invitational. The one-meet rule and the added Kentucky meet (Trinity / Valkyrie) were chosen after seeing data availability. Most 2026 ratings rest on a single meet, which is noisier. 2026 K is a weaker two-venue anchor (K by season).
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Boys · Oatlands 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Blacksburg | 96 | 2-5-7-15-67 (75)(96) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Blacksburg
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| 02 | Albemarle | 154 | 13-29-30-40-42 (47)(84) | 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Albemarle
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| 03 | Ocean Lakes | 296 | 23-43-54-81-95 (101)(230) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Ocean Lakes
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| 04 | West Potomac | 303 | 31-35-41-62-134 (187)(287) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for West Potomac
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| 05 | James W. Robinson | 332 | 19-34-66-106-107 (126)(158) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James W. Robinson
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| 06 | C.G. Woodson | 345 | 25-59-65-94-102 (122)(133) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for C.G. Woodson
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| 07 | Smithfield | 367 | 16-45-83-99-124 (159)(373) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Smithfield
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| 08 | Jamestown | 374 | 1-57-98-100-118 (156) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Jamestown
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| 09 | Midlothian | 388 | 9-26-80-129-144 (146)(207) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Midlothian
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| 10 | Loudoun Valley | 392 | 8-24-97-110-153 (367) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Loudoun Valley
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| 11 | Patriot | 424 | 3-74-76-86-185 (211)(253) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Patriot
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| 12 | Deep Run | 437 | 20-38-58-143-178 (202)(236) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Deep Run
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| 13 | Thomas Jefferson S&T | 451 | 12-48-56-137-198 (220)(248) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Thomas Jefferson S&T
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| 14 | Kellam | 476 | 14-61-90-114-197 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Kellam
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| 15 | Loudoun County | 484 | 4-36-108-145-191 (224)(366) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Loudoun County
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| 16 | Woodbridge | 566 | 33-79-130-154-170 (209)(237) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Woodbridge
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| 17 | James River (Midlothian) | 633 | 46-125-147-152-163 (309)(386) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James River (Midlothian)
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| 18 | Stafford | 657 | 22-49-186-199-201 (246)(297) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Stafford
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| 19 | Langley | 657 | 72-91-116-183-195 (307)(324) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Langley
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| 20 | Glen Allen | 697 | 39-85-128-164-281 (299)(320) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Glen Allen
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| 21 | Thomas Edison | 698 | 63-73-139-180-243 (251)(260) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Thomas Edison
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| 22 | Chantilly | 701 | 60-120-142-161-218 (255)(283) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Chantilly
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| 23 | Battlefield | 728 | 44-50-117-227-290 (291)(347) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Battlefield
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| 24 | Bishop Ireton | 745 | 10-78-173-216-268 (271)(342) | 2026: 4 · 2025: 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Bishop Ireton
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| 25 | Tuscarora (VA) | 746 | 27-55-148-250-266 (274)(286) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Tuscarora (VA)
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| 26 | J.R. Tucker | 765 | 53-141-151-205-215 (231)(292) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for J.R. Tucker
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| 27 | Maury | 800 | 92-105-168-193-242 (262)(288) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Maury
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| 28 | Charlottesville | 835 | 6-51-206-272-300 (353)(360) | 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Charlottesville
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| 29 | North Stafford | 838 | 28-71-140-208-391 (460)(470) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for North Stafford
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| 30 | Dominion | 846 | 69-119-179-235-244 (247)(258) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Dominion
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| 31 | Mountain View | 865 | 32-138-181-203-311 (326)(393) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Mountain View
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| 32 | Independence | 910 | 111-115-127-261-296 (332) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Independence
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| 33 | Sherando | 957 | 70-219-221-222-225 (238)(384) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Sherando
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| 34 | Clarke County | 963 | 18-112-269-279-285 (308)(351) | 2026: 4 · 2025: 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Clarke County
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| 35 | Lightridge | 974 | 109-182-194-233-256 (344)(397) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Lightridge
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| 36 | Colonial Forge | 989 | 93-155-169-213-359 (381)(415) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Colonial Forge
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| 37 | George C. Marshall | 996 | 88-132-184-263-329 (334)(339) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for George C. Marshall
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| 38 | Briar Woods | 1016 | 82-135-175-293-331 (374)(402) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Briar Woods
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| 39 | Maggie Walker | 1017 | 21-174-240-284-298 (348)(356) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Maggie Walker
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| 40 | Washington-Liberty | 1040 | 87-167-172-295-319 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Washington-Liberty
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| 41 | Cosby | 1096 | 52-113-204-350-377 (390)(396) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Cosby
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| 42 | Heritage (Leesburg) | 1101 | 37-123-278-317-346 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Heritage (Leesburg)
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| 43 | Broad Run | 1126 | 17-136-270-282-421 (423)(430) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Broad Run
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| 44 | Westfield | 1176 | 89-249-259-265-314 (362)(370) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Westfield
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| 45 | St. Stephen's and St. Agnes Scho | 1185 | 68-190-277-323-327 (459) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for St. Stephen's and St. Agnes Scho
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| 46 | Stone Bridge | 1197 | 149-189-245-301-313 (335)(338) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Stone Bridge
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| 47 | Riverside | 1245 | 104-165-305-330-341 (379)(436) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Riverside
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| 48 | Atlee | 1248 | 177-188-276-303-304 (312)(343) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Atlee
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| 49 | Spire | 1298 | 210-212-275-280-321 (336)(349) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Spire
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| 50 | Spotswood | 1305 | 103-192-325-340-345 (357)(400) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Spotswood
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| 51 | Flint Hill School | 1385 | 157-160-223-416-429 (471)(486) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Flint Hill School
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| 52 | King George | 1418 | 11-264-310-358-475 (484) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for King George
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| 53 | St. Paul VI Catholic | 1431 | 77-257-355-364-378 (405)(406) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for St. Paul VI Catholic
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| 54 | Eastern View | 1480 | 171-226-337-371-375 (425)(427) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Eastern View
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| 55 | Brentsville District | 1494 | 217-241-294-316-426 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Brentsville District
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| 56 | Meridian | 1501 | 229-267-273-322-410 (422)(428) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Meridian
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| 57 | Herndon | 1557 | 64-234-385-432-442 (443)(455) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Herndon
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| 58 | James Wood | 1561 | 150-302-352-369-388 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for James Wood
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| 59 | Brooke Point | 1616 | 166-176-404-431-439 (444)(449) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Brooke Point
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| 60 | Annandale | 1630 | 214-239-365-394-418 (435)(447) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Annandale
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| 61 | William Monroe | 1670 | 131-363-389-392-395 (401)(446) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for William Monroe
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| 62 | Hayfield Secondary School | 1673 | 228-315-333-398-399 (411)(413) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Hayfield Secondary School
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| 63 | Monacan | 1787 | 200-306-417-424-440 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Monacan
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| 64 | Justice | 1806 | 289-318-368-383-448 (452)(495) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Justice
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| 65 | Churchland | 1811 | 196-328-361-454-472 (489)(497) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Churchland
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| 66 | Evergreen Christian School | 1920 | 121-403-461-467-468 (505)(508) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Evergreen Christian School
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| 67 | Hartwood | 1976 | 162-414-462-465-473 (481)(491) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Hartwood
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| 68 | Rock Ridge | 1983 | 254-407-412-441-469 | 2026: 4 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Rock Ridge
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| 69 | James Monroe | 2061 | 252-376-450-487-496 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for James Monroe
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| 70 | Rappahannock County | 2087 | 354-380-433-456-464 (499) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Rappahannock County
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| 71 | The Potomac School | 2095 | 232-434-466-480-483 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for The Potomac School
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| 72 | John Champe | 2163 | 409-420-438-445-451 (474)(490) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for John Champe
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| 73 | Osbourn | 2186 | 382-387-408-503-506 (509) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Osbourn
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| 74 | Skyline | 2269 | 372-458-478-479-482 | 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Skyline
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| 75 | Trinity Academy Meadow View | 2321 | 419-437-485-488-492 (501) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Trinity Academy Meadow View
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| 76 | Maret School | 2401 | 453-476-477-493-502 (504)(507) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Maret School
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| 77 | Park View (Sterling) | 2412 | 457-463-494-498-500 | 2026: 4 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Park View (Sterling)
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without. Blacksburg’s lead rests on thin links (see the caveat).
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Boys · top 100 rated entrants
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Jonathan GrimmJamestown | 188.0 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Rivers MatthewsBlacksburg | 184.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Preston SpanglerPatriot | 183.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Gavin DanielsGainesville | 182.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 05 | Michael TafeLoudoun County | 179.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Calvin WilbonBlacksburg | 179.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Graham GoodaleCharlottesville | 172.8 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Isaak WisnioskiBlacksburg | 172.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Sawyer ClarkLoudoun Valley | 170.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Grayson SpillerMidlothian | 170.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Jason DayBishop Ireton | 169.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 12 | Thomas PowerSt. Albans School | 169.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 13 | Rafi HumeSt. Albans School | 169.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 14 | Timithy WingeartKing George | 168.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Steven WinesThomas Jefferson S&T | 168.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 16 | Luke KronebuschAlbemarle | 167.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Finnegan MannyKellam | 166.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Isaac DevineBlacksburg | 165.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Caleb GreerSmithfield | 165.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Andrew WellsBroad Run | 165.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Landon HortonClarke County | 164.8 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Zachary ParedesJames W. Robinson | 164.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Raymond TrageserDeep Run | 164.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Ashton KochelMaggie Walker | 164.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Gabriel EverettWestern Branch | 164.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Ethan ToweryStafford | 164.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Fenton MillionOcean Lakes | 163.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Alex Von HeidekenBethesda-Chevy Chase | 163.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 29 | Isaac StiltnerLoudoun Valley | 163.4 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Isaac SchoolsC.G. Woodson | 163.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Zach SpencerMidlothian | 162.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Caleb LeangTuscarora (VA) | 162.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Connor Mallett JacksonNorth Stafford | 162.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Bryce WrightAlbemarle | 162.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Ethan JupinAlbemarle | 161.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Daniel BlackWest Potomac | 161.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Cairo PonsMountain View | 160.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Jimmy OrtizWoodbridge | 160.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Charlie SchoonoverJames W. Robinson | 160.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Trent LyklingWest Potomac | 160.3 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Jack CassidyLoudoun County | 160.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Luca CavalloHeritage (Leesburg) | 160.0 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 43 | Samuel KeeferDeep Run | 159.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Jackson Pryor-KolsterGlen Allen | 159.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Brody LawsonAlbemarle | 159.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Andrew EdwardsWest Potomac | 159.0 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Eli DuncanAlbemarle | 158.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Jack IngramOcean Lakes | 158.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Ayush PatelBattlefield | 158.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 50 | Logan GreerSmithfield | 158.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Hudson YostJames River (Midlothian) | 158.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Jack MackeyAlbemarle | 158.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 53 | Jack OliverThomas Jefferson S&T | 158.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Quinn O'NeillStafford | 157.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Tyler ZbrzeznyBattlefield | 157.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 56 | Cy KeeseckerCharlottesville | 157.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Parker WoottenCosby | 157.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Alec MostofiBethesda-Chevy Chase | 156.8 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 59 | Cayden ColemanNorview | 156.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 60 | Brian BookerJ.R. Tucker | 156.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Nathen VargheseOcean Lakes | 156.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 62 | William WagenbachTuscarora (VA) | 156.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 63 | Henry HallSt. Albans School | 155.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 64 | Thomas KimThomas Jefferson S&T | 155.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Lucas HendersonJamestown | 155.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Jackson KepplerDeep Run | 155.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Noah LeahyC.G. Woodson | 155.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 68 | Jacob CrochetiereChantilly | 155.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 69 | Stryker BalkKellam | 154.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Nico DiffenbachWest Potomac | 154.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Michael NigburPrincess Anne | 154.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 72 | Jack DowneyThomas Edison | 154.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Baden GearyHerndon | 154.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Christian KellyC.G. Woodson | 154.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Bence FulwilerJames W. Robinson | 154.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Wesley RideoutBlacksburg | 153.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Ebenezer TemesgenFreedom (South Riding) | 153.8 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 78 | Henry KrebsSt. Stephen's and St. Agnes Scho | 153.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 79 | Arvin MirchandaniDeMatha Catholic | 152.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 80 | Daniel LonderganDominion | 152.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 81 | William NorrisSherando | 152.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Easton FurrMassaponax | 152.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 83 | Adam KulbethNorth Stafford | 152.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Nial NygilLangley | 151.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Christian AngleThomas Edison | 151.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Christopher "Jai" HarrisPatriot | 151.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Bebo HimesBlacksburg | 151.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Damian MartinezPatriot | 150.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Alston DesimoneSt. Paul VI Catholic | 150.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 90 | Justin HuynhBishop Ireton | 150.5 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Bradley JohnsonWoodbridge | 150.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Kai WotringMidlothian | 150.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Levi PearsonOcean Lakes | 149.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Ishaan ShethBriar Woods | 149.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Zachary CanadySmithfield | 149.5 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 96 | Joey ColemanAlbemarle | 149.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Bryson WallisGlen Allen | 149.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Andrew WhitePatriot | 148.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 99 | Benjamin HenleyAlbemarle | 148.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Outside team’s seven |
| 100 | Alessandro PiosaWashington-Liberty | 148.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among all rated entrants, including runners on unranked teams. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS
43 teams with fewer than five rated entrants
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
- DeMatha Catholic4 of 29 rated
- Episcopal4 of 14 rated
- Fairfax4 of 7 rated
- Freedom (South Riding)4 of 32 rated
- Gar-Field4 of 11 rated
- Georgetown Day School4 of 19 rated
- Granby4 of 7 rated
- Manassas Park4 of 10 rated
- Massaponax4 of 9 rated
- Potomac Falls4 of 32 rated
- St. Albans School4 of 32 rated
- Yorktown4 of 20 rated
- Bethesda-Chevy Chase3 of 32 rated
- Cornerstone Christian Academy3 of 8 rated
- Dominion Christian School3 of 5 rated
- Gainesville3 of 29 rated
- Patriots Running3 of 9 rated
- Princess Anne3 of 7 rated
- Winston Churchill3 of 25 rated
- Covenant Christian Academy2 of 6 rated
- Cox2 of 4 rated
- Norview2 of 3 rated
- Virginia Academy (VAAC)1 of 5 rated
- Western Branch1 of 1 rated
- Calvert0 of 8 rated
- Centennial0 of 29 rated
- E.L. Haynes Public Charter Schoo0 of 4 rated
- Frederick0 of 32 rated
- James Hubert Blake0 of 7 rated
- Landon School0 of 29 rated
- Lycée Rochambeau French Institut0 of 1 rated
- Northeast Senior0 of 12 rated
- Northern Virginia Homeschool Ath0 of 2 rated
- Poolesville0 of 32 rated
- Potomac Senior0 of 6 rated
- Providence Christian Academy0 of 1 rated
- School Without Walls0 of 15 rated
- Sherwood0 of 26 rated
- Urbana0 of 32 rated
- Veritas Collegiate Academy0 of 3 rated
- Walt Whitman0 of 27 rated
- Walter Johnson0 of 32 rated
- Washington (WV)0 of 11 rated
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Entries do not say who runs Varsity A, B or JV, so every entered runner is placed in one field. This is not an official division result.
- Entries are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated entrants may not be the seven who run.
- The leading teams rest on thin links. Blacksburg leads both projections, and each of its seven listed runners in both sexes has a 2026 best from Knights Crossing or the Trinity / Valkyrie (Kentucky) race. That Kentucky race is tied to the rest of the network only through 8 Blacksburg runners per sex, so every Blacksburg mark depends on one Knights Crossing race adjustment. If that race is mis-rated, all of Blacksburg’s runners move together. Known limits
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not an Oatlands course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish. The 2025 fallback adds coverage, not proven accuracy.