NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
Oatlands Invitational 2026
Oatlands Invitational, Sat Sep 26, 2026, Leesburg. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Sep 25.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each entered team’s seven highest-rated runners are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex, then scored like a cross-country meet. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
Actual results: Oatlands Invitational 2026 results
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Most ratings follow two rules (Method). A runner with at least one identified 2026 meet gets a 2026 rating. A runner without one gets the 2025 season best if it rests on two reliable A–C meets, shifted onto the 2026 scale by the median change of runners rated in both seasons. That shift mixes a year of development with the two seasons’ different centring, so it is not an improvement estimate.
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Entrants | 2,159 | 1,471 |
| Rated | 764 | 585 |
| 2026 rating (one meet · two or more) | 416404 · 12 | 305297 · 8 |
| 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | 348shift −0.88% · 842 runners in both | 279shift +0.69% · 658 runners in both |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 77 of 120 | 63 of 115 |
| Teams unranked | 43 | 52 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 488.152 | 493.738 |
2026 ratings come from 11 admitted meets: Arrow B Ranch Invitational, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Griffin Invitational, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Pole Green XC Classic, StallionsXC Invitational, The George Brown Invitational, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, UVA Wise High School Invitational, Wolverine XC Invitational. The one-meet rule and the added Kentucky meet (Trinity / Valkyrie) were chosen after seeing data availability. Most 2026 ratings rest on a single meet, which is noisier. 2026 K is a weaker two-venue anchor (K by season).
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Girls · Oatlands 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Blacksburg | 68 | 3-9-14-17-25 (62)(74) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Blacksburg
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| 02 | James W. Robinson | 110 | 5-7-22-23-53 (54)(65) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James W. Robinson
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| 03 | C.G. Woodson | 169 | 6-10-44-48-61 (108)(112) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for C.G. Woodson
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| 04 | Charlottesville | 248 | 8-26-30-33-151 (192)(198) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Charlottesville
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| 05 | Glen Allen | 254 | 12-15-31-97-99 (119)(168) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Glen Allen
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| 06 | Yorktown | 275 | 2-35-56-90-92 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Yorktown
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| 07 | Loudoun Valley | 330 | 43-47-51-76-113 (148)(234) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Loudoun Valley
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| 08 | Atlee | 333 | 4-60-64-84-121 (187)(281) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Atlee
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| 09 | Spotswood | 408 | 13-19-36-154-186 (229)(340) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Spotswood
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| 10 | Kellam | 412 | 59-71-88-91-103 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Kellam
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| 11 | Colonial Forge | 422 | 24-49-69-83-197 (203)(241) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Colonial Forge
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| 12 | Midlothian | 427 | 18-73-102-107-127 (132)(240) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Midlothian
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| 13 | Albemarle | 522 | 21-68-104-164-165 (204)(279) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Albemarle
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| 14 | Patriot | 551 | 32-34-57-81-347 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Patriot
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| 15 | Langley | 591 | 41-114-126-136-174 (226)(233) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Langley
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| 16 | Washington-Liberty | 628 | 52-109-117-142-208 (249) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Washington-Liberty
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| 17 | Ocean Lakes | 629 | 86-93-133-141-176 (362) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Ocean Lakes
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| 18 | Stafford | 649 | 82-110-115-161-181 (290)(299) | 2026: 4 · 2025: 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Stafford
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| 19 | Independence | 659 | 20-98-131-200-210 (261)(276) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Independence
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| 20 | The Potomac School | 668 | 58-67-118-182-243 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for The Potomac School
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| 21 | Briar Woods | 673 | 28-72-101-205-267 (278)(308) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Briar Woods
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| 22 | Dominion | 708 | 50-89-162-195-212 (213)(329) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Dominion
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| 23 | Maggie Walker | 717 | 38-111-137-175-256 (287)(301) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Maggie Walker
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| 24 | Westfield | 723 | 37-80-153-223-230 (280)(320) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Westfield
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| 25 | Princess Anne | 726 | 78-120-147-157-224 (344) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Princess Anne
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| 26 | George C. Marshall | 730 | 75-134-166-171-184 (235)(239) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for George C. Marshall
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| 27 | Battlefield | 730 | 66-145-146-185-188 (288)(343) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Battlefield
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| 28 | St. Paul VI Catholic | 763 | 40-45-138-231-309 (336)(338) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for St. Paul VI Catholic
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| 29 | Monacan | 806 | 70-95-183-221-237 | 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Monacan
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| 30 | William Monroe | 808 | 1-87-189-227-304 (355)(396) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for William Monroe
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| 31 | Georgetown Day School | 853 | 11-129-207-242-264 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Georgetown Day School
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| 32 | Clarke County | 858 | 150-167-172-173-196 (250)(352) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Clarke County
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| 33 | Spire | 884 | 39-116-144-272-313 (333)(386) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Spire
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| 34 | J.R. Tucker | 893 | 94-106-159-263-271 (315) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for J.R. Tucker
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| 35 | Bishop Ireton | 921 | 29-149-215-255-273 (283)(337) | 2026: 4 · 2025: 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Bishop Ireton
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| 36 | Deep Run | 961 | 42-105-217-244-353 (371)(378) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Deep Run
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| 37 | West Potomac | 977 | 122-199-209-211-236 (245)(286) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for West Potomac
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| 38 | Gainesville | 987 | 85-201-218-225-258 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Gainesville
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| 39 | Mountain View | 1009 | 27-124-248-300-310 (348)(367) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Mountain View
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| 40 | Stone Ridge School of the Sacred | 1010 | 16-191-206-295-302 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Stone Ridge School of the Sacred
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| 41 | Lightridge | 1038 | 125-194-214-220-285 (303)(326) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Lightridge
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| 42 | Thomas Jefferson S&T | 1047 | 77-178-202-292-298 (323)(327) | 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Thomas Jefferson S&T
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| 43 | Tuscarora (VA) | 1082 | 79-96-238-318-351 (372) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Tuscarora (VA)
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| 44 | St. Stephen's and St. Agnes Scho | 1093 | 55-156-232-322-328 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for St. Stephen's and St. Agnes Scho
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| 45 | Chantilly | 1142 | 143-228-254-257-260 (282)(291) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Chantilly
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| 46 | Loudoun County | 1155 | 160-179-190-270-356 (365)(394) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Loudoun County
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| 47 | Maury | 1169 | 128-130-259-293-359 (363)(366) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Maury
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| 48 | Potomac Falls | 1182 | 100-163-294-311-314 (357) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Potomac Falls
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| 49 | Smithfield | 1193 | 135-155-252-269-382 (383) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Smithfield
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| 50 | Thomas Edison | 1202 | 169-177-251-284-321 (361)(380) | 2026: 7 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Thomas Edison
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| 51 | Trinity Academy Meadow View | 1270 | 123-219-246-306-376 (397) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Trinity Academy Meadow View
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| 52 | Cosby | 1276 | 63-152-305-364-392 | 2026: 4 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Cosby
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| 53 | Sherando | 1287 | 139-222-268-312-346 (375)(377) | 2026: 4 · 2025: 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Sherando
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| 54 | Meridian | 1396 | 253-262-265-297-319 (349)(358) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Meridian
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| 55 | Stone Bridge | 1484 | 193-275-324-342-350 (384) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Stone Bridge
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| 56 | Hayfield Secondary School | 1489 | 170-266-316-339-398 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Hayfield Secondary School
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| 57 | Heritage (Leesburg) | 1505 | 46-332-354-385-388 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Heritage (Leesburg)
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| 58 | Riverside | 1524 | 140-277-368-369-370 (395) | 2026: 6 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Riverside
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| 59 | Maret School | 1560 | 158-317-330-374-381 (391) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Maret School
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| 60 | King George | 1561 | 180-307-325-360-389 | 2026: 5 · 2025: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for King George
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| 61 | Freedom (South Riding) | 1595 | 289-296-334-335-341 (345) | 2026: 0 · 2025: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Freedom (South Riding)
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| 62 | Broad Run | 1598 | 216-274-331-387-390 | 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Broad Run
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| 63 | Churchland | 1791 | 247-373-379-393-399 | 2026: 0 · 2025: 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 runners for Churchland
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without. Blacksburg’s lead rests on thin links (see the caveat).
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Girls · top 100 rated entrants
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Samantha NitzscheWilliam Monroe | 149.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Molly HardwickYorktown | 138.7 | — | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Avery WhitsonBlacksburg | 128.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Carissa AmbroseAtlee | 127.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Karina BirdJames W. Robinson | 127.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Hadley VanekC.G. Woodson | 125.8 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Alexandra BirdJames W. Robinson | 125.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Juliana PierceCharlottesville | 124.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Reilly ThomasBlacksburg | 124.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Annie PrzydzialC.G. Woodson | 124.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Shira WentheGeorgetown Day School | 124.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 12 | Emma SteinGlen Allen | 124.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Peyton JoynerSpotswood | 123.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Lola OlsenBlacksburg | 123.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Avery CarlsonGlen Allen | 122.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 16 | Grace LoveStone Ridge School of the Sacred | 118.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Ruthie DelappBlacksburg | 118.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Danielle MaynorCox | 117.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 19 | Briella AnsellMidlothian | 117.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Hayley ManciniSpotswood | 115.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Allie GonzalezIndependence | 115.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Pia PetersonAlbemarle | 115.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Nya StoianBethesda-Chevy Chase | 114.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 24 | Petra GruendelJames W. Robinson | 114.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Lily LaroskiNational Cathedral | 111.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Isabella WillardJames W. Robinson | 110.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Lauren AckersonColonial Forge | 110.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Harper OlsenBlacksburg | 108.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Liliana JonesCharlottesville | 108.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Lauren UhleMountain View | 108.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Megan GreenlundBriar Woods | 107.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Catherine MessingBishop Ireton | 107.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Catherine CrookCharlottesville | 107.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Makenna PardueGlen Allen | 107.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Fiona SmithMount De Sales Academy | 107.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 36 | Sienna DoudsPatriot | 106.8 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Phoebe FischmanCharlottesville | 106.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Kaleigh PodkowkaPatriot | 106.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Ali MathewsYorktown | 106.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Anna LoweSpotswood | 105.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Brianna PritchardWestfield | 104.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Cora BryantMaggie Walker | 104.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 43 | Isabelle HorneSpire | 104.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Eleanor SloweSt. Paul VI Catholic | 104.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Abigail PickardLangley | 103.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Dahae MeseroleDeep Run | 103.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Evelyn O'RourkeLoudoun Valley | 103.4 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Jacklyn GillandersC.G. Woodson | 103.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Ella PringleGranby | 102.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 50 | Elise FitzgibbonSt. Paul VI Catholic | 101.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Sophia PriceHeritage (Leesburg) | 101.8 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Lucy PoppLoudoun Valley | 101.8 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 53 | Carleigh DevlinC.G. Woodson | 100.0 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Victoria HallColonial Forge | 99.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Caroline TaylorDominion | 99.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 56 | Harper BartlettLoudoun Valley | 99.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Maddie BrysWashington-Liberty | 98.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Juliet LordJames W. Robinson | 98.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 59 | Ciara JensenJames W. Robinson | 98.0 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 60 | Sydney WanamakerSt. Stephen's and St. Agnes Scho | 97.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Eliana BarkatCornerstone Christian Academy | 96.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 62 | Sophie SweetJames Monroe | 96.5 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 63 | Rochelle GaryBrooke Point | 95.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 64 | Ayla MehmoodYorktown | 95.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Aadina IbrahimiPatriot | 94.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Sabrina AndersonThe Potomac School | 94.5 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Eva BacinskiMount De Sales Academy | 94.5 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 68 | Kate SpainKellam | 94.4 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 69 | Amelia SobotkaAtlee | 94.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Violet ConklinC.G. Woodson | 94.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Penny GriggsBlacksburg | 92.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Audrey MartinCosby | 92.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Reilly CoyneAtlee | 91.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Mairyn MullinsJames W. Robinson | 90.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Alicia SalousBattlefield | 90.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Elizabeth WidorThe Potomac School | 90.0 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 77 | McKinley ColemanAlbemarle | 90.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Ava SummerfieldBethesda-Chevy Chase | 89.7 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 79 | Kate BignellColonial Forge | 89.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Islah JunkermannMonacan | 89.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Eva JacksonKellam | 88.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Kelsie HumbertBriar Woods | 88.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 83 | Genevieve KadeMidlothian | 87.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Sally PrinceBlacksburg | 87.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Anne HallGeorge C. Marshall | 87.5 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Mary BacinskiMount De Sales Academy | 87.3 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 87 | Ivy HawsLoudoun Valley | 87.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Micaela BodianThomas Jefferson S&T | 87.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Penelope ChannellPrincess Anne | 86.4 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 90 | Avery CaskeyTuscarora (VA) | 86.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Nadia LundWinston Churchill | 85.6 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 92 | Audrey GaryWestfield | 85.2 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Caroline DrunaskyWoodbridge | 85.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 94 | Rachel FillmorePatriot | 84.1 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Mariana SongBethesda-Chevy Chase | 83.9 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | Team unranked (fewer than five rated) |
| 96 | Sierra PoorbaughStafford | 83.8 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Olivia SmithColonial Forge | 83.8 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Clara CookBlacksburg | 83.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | Outside team’s seven |
| 99 | Sofia HendersonAtlee | 83.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Riley LongGainesville | 83.0 | 2025, shifted to the 2026 scale | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among all rated entrants, including runners on unranked teams. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS
52 teams with fewer than five rated entrants
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
- Annandale4 of 10 rated
- Bethesda-Chevy Chase4 of 32 rated
- Brooke Point4 of 9 rated
- Episcopal4 of 11 rated
- Herndon4 of 10 rated
- Justice4 of 6 rated
- Manassas Park4 of 8 rated
- Mount De Sales Academy4 of 7 rated
- National Cathedral4 of 24 rated
- Rock Ridge4 of 8 rated
- Skyline4 of 10 rated
- Brentsville District3 of 9 rated
- Cornerstone Christian Academy3 of 6 rated
- Fairfax3 of 7 rated
- Granby3 of 7 rated
- James Monroe3 of 3 rated
- James River (Midlothian)3 of 8 rated
- James Wood3 of 13 rated
- Jamestown3 of 11 rated
- Massaponax3 of 6 rated
- Woodbridge3 of 8 rated
- Covenant Christian Academy2 of 6 rated
- Cox2 of 2 rated
- Evergreen Christian School2 of 6 rated
- Gar-Field2 of 4 rated
- Northern Virginia Homeschool Ath2 of 14 rated
- Oakcrest School2 of 7 rated
- Osbourn2 of 4 rated
- Patriots Running2 of 6 rated
- Rappahannock County2 of 2 rated
- Winston Churchill2 of 25 rated
- Dominion Christian School1 of 1 rated
- Elizabeth Seton1 of 6 rated
- Flint Hill School1 of 4 rated
- Hartwood1 of 5 rated
- John Champe1 of 3 rated
- Calvert0 of 5 rated
- Centennial0 of 15 rated
- E.L. Haynes Public Charter Schoo0 of 2 rated
- James Hubert Blake0 of 2 rated
- North Stafford0 of 6 rated
- Northeast Senior0 of 1 rated
- Poolesville0 of 16 rated
- Potomac Senior0 of 6 rated
- School Without Walls0 of 18 rated
- Sherwood0 of 14 rated
- Urbana0 of 25 rated
- Veritas Collegiate Academy0 of 3 rated
- Virginia Academy (VAAC)0 of 1 rated
- Walt Whitman0 of 28 rated
- Walter Johnson0 of 21 rated
- Washington (WV)0 of 9 rated
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Entries do not say who runs Varsity A, B or JV, so every entered runner is placed in one field. This is not an official division result.
- Entries are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated entrants may not be the seven who run.
- The leading teams rest on thin links. Blacksburg leads both projections, and each of its seven listed runners in both sexes has a 2026 best from Knights Crossing or the Trinity / Valkyrie (Kentucky) race. That Kentucky race is tied to the rest of the network only through 8 Blacksburg runners per sex, so every Blacksburg mark depends on one Knights Crossing race adjustment. If that race is mis-rated, all of Blacksburg’s runners move together. Known limits
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not an Oatlands course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish. The 2025 fallback adds coverage, not proven accuracy.