NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
Albemarle Invitational 2026
Albemarle Invitational, Sat Oct 10, 2026, Earlysville. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 7.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each entered team’s seven highest-rated runners are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex, then scored like a cross-country meet. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
Actual results: Albemarle Invitational 2026 results
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their 2026 season-best Statistical Rating on the day, the value the team boards use: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. Each entrant is matched to that rating by athlete ID; there is no 2025 fallback, so an entrant without a rated 2026 race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Entrants | 732 | 486 |
| Rated | 342 | 214 |
| 2026 rating (one meet · two or more) | 342221 · 121 | 214113 · 101 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 32 of 35 | 26 of 34 |
| Teams unranked | 3 | 8 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 489.948 | 495.254 |
2026 ratings come from 14 admitted meets: Adidas XC Challenge, Fork Union Cross Country Invitational, Great American XC Festival, Ham City Hustle Invitational, Knights Crossing XC Invitational, Oatlands Invitational, Octoberfest Invitational, Pole Green - "The Southern" XC Invite by ECE, Pole Green XC Classic, StallionsXC Invitational, Trials of Miles XC Opening Night presented by New Balance, Trinity / Valkyrie Invitational, VTCA Fall Classic, Wolverine XC Invitational. Ratings are the 2026 v7 season bests as of 2026-10-06; the entry list was captured 2026-10-07. The field is the entries of High School Boys 5000 Meter Run (boys) and High School Girls 5000 Meter Run (girls). Entrants without a rated 2026 race on the board rules are counted but not listed: 390 boys and 272 girls.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Boys · Albemarle 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Western Albemarle | 28 | 2-3-6-8-9 (27)(33) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Western Albemarle
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| 02 | Albemarle | 84 | 5-10-12-20-37 (41)(46) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Albemarle
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| 03 | Broadway | 193 | 18-39-42-43-51 (105)(125) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Broadway
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| 04 | Stafford | 206 | 7-14-58-59-68 (79)(82) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Stafford
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| 05 | Midlothian | 224 | 1-36-38-65-84 (96)(118) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Midlothian
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| 06 | Riverbend | 297 | 28-44-53-78-94 (124)(127) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Riverbend
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| 07 | J.R. Tucker | 302 | 29-56-60-76-81 (87)(92) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for J.R. Tucker
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| 08 | Glen Allen | 305 | 24-45-67-72-97 (102)(146) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Glen Allen
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| 09 | James River (Midlothian) | 329 | 35-48-61-62-123 (131)(159) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James River (Midlothian)
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| 10 | Louisa County | 331 | 31-54-75-85-86 (149)(161) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Louisa County
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| 11 | Battlefield | 341 | 19-26-49-110-137 (138)(150) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Battlefield
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| 12 | Harrisonburg | 363 | 40-57-83-90-93 (99)(103) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Harrisonburg
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| 13 | Turner Ashby | 370 | 23-30-74-111-132 (135)(180) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Turner Ashby
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| 14 | Trinity Christian School | 390 | 21-66-80-104-119 (189)(194) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Trinity Christian School
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| 15 | Monticello | 409 | 17-70-106-107-109 (173)(188) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Monticello
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| 16 | Freedom (South Riding) | 426 | 4-89-100-113-120 (128) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Freedom (South Riding)
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| 17 | Saint John Paul the Great Cathol | 432 | 34-71-73-115-139 (142)(143) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Saint John Paul the Great Cathol
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| 18 | Mountain View | 441 | 22-91-98-101-129 (130)(134) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Mountain View
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| 19 | Cosby | 466 | 15-47-77-156-171 (177)(187) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Cosby
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| 20 | Grassfield | 476 | 50-55-64-147-160 (184)(201) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Grassfield
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| 21 | Charlottesville | 486 | 25-69-112-116-164 (185)(195) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Charlottesville
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| 22 | St. Christopher's | 515 | 16-32-117-167-183 (204)(216) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for St. Christopher's
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| 23 | Woodberry Forest | 584 | 63-95-122-151-153 (155)(176) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Woodberry Forest
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| 24 | King George | 638 | 11-126-133-158-210 (214) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for King George
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| 25 | Forest Park | 707 | 13-154-165-178-197 (207)(211) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Forest Park
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| 26 | Douglas Freeman | 713 | 121-140-141-145-166 (168)(169) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Douglas Freeman
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| 27 | William Monroe | 726 | 52-144-174-175-181 (186)(198) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for William Monroe
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| 28 | Powhatan | 801 | 108-148-170-182-193 (200)(208) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Powhatan
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| 29 | Gainesville | 808 | 136-157-162-163-190 (192)(199) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Gainesville
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| 30 | Hartwood | 877 | 88-179-202-203-205 (206)(222) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Hartwood
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| 31 | Rappahannock County | 941 | 152-172-196-209-212 (213)(221) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Rappahannock County
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| 32 | Grace Christian School (S) | 955 | 114-191-215-217-218 (219)(220) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Grace Christian School (S)
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Boys · top 100 rated entrants
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Grayson SpillerMidlothian | 183.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Henry BowmanWestern Albemarle | 179.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Noah KaminsteinWestern Albemarle | 176.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Ebenezer TemesgenFreedom (South Riding) | 175.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Luke KronebuschAlbemarle | 174.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Ethan ApicellaWestern Albemarle | 172.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Ethan ToweryStafford | 170.7 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Christophe De WekkerWestern Albemarle | 170.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Finn SmithWestern Albemarle | 170.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Eli DuncanAlbemarle | 169.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Timithy WingeartKing George | 168.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 12 | Bryce WrightAlbemarle | 167.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Jonathan DawitForest Park | 166.0 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Quinn O'NeillStafford | 165.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Parker WoottenCosby | 165.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 16 | Grayson JonesSt. Christopher's | 164.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Joaquim EdwardsMonticello | 163.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Peyton AllenBroadway | 163.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Tyler ZbrzeznyBattlefield | 162.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Jack MackeyAlbemarle | 162.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Daniel GreenwoodTrinity Christian School | 161.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Cairo PonsMountain View | 160.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Bryce DriverTurner Ashby | 160.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Jackson Pryor-KolsterGlen Allen | 159.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Cy KeeseckerCharlottesville | 158.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Ayush PatelBattlefield | 158.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 27 | George GeisWestern Albemarle | 157.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Ethan HackingRiverbend | 156.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Brian BookerJ.R. Tucker | 156.7 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Cerak AtoshmTurner Ashby | 156.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Bryson NemecLouisa County | 155.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 32 | LT NguyenSt. Christopher's | 155.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Deegan GardnerWestern Albemarle | 155.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 34 | David HurleySaint John Paul the Great Cathol | 154.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Luke SykesJames River (Midlothian) | 154.4 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Zach SpencerMidlothian | 153.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Benjamin HenleyAlbemarle | 153.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Rahul ThornMidlothian | 153.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Max FletcherBroadway | 153.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Joah Newcomer-MillerHarrisonburg | 152.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Brody LawsonAlbemarle | 150.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Caleb HoseBroadway | 150.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 43 | Henry CoffmanBroadway | 150.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Ryan ArnoldRiverbend | 149.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Bryson WallisGlen Allen | 149.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Brett PhillipsAlbemarle | 148.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Adrian StaceyCosby | 147.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Davis NewlinJames River (Midlothian) | 146.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Ebenezer SamuelBattlefield | 145.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 50 | Avery JupinAlbemarle | 145.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | Outside team’s seven |
| 51 | Alexander WattersonGrassfield | 144.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Caleb CombsBroadway | 144.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 53 | Eduardo EspindolaWilliam Monroe | 144.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Griffin PesnellRiverbend | 144.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Brayden NemecLouisa County | 143.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 56 | Jacob CarpenterGrassfield | 143.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Will ThorpeJ.R. Tucker | 143.3 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Jonah SchmidtHarrisonburg | 143.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 59 | Isaiah HastingsStafford | 143.0 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 60 | Jason SotoStafford | 142.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Jake PennockJ.R. Tucker | 142.8 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 62 | Evan MoseyJames River (Midlothian) | 142.6 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 63 | Hudson YostJames River (Midlothian) | 142.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 64 | Fin EricksonWoodberry Forest | 142.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Brayden ThienGrassfield | 142.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Kai WotringMidlothian | 142.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Jeremy KwitchoffTrinity Christian School | 141.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 68 | Lewis McMillanGlen Allen | 141.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 69 | Samuel ReeseStafford | 140.9 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Felix MasriCharlottesville | 140.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Arthur O'LearyMonticello | 139.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Troy CarterSaint John Paul the Great Cathol | 139.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 73 | David AllportGlen Allen | 139.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Andrew BourilSaint John Paul the Great Cathol | 138.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Owen CaseyTurner Ashby | 137.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Bryce WhetzelLouisa County | 137.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Manning OjibwayJ.R. Tucker | 137.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Conner SmithCosby | 137.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 79 | Samuel ThompsonRiverbend | 137.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Henry PerdomoStafford | 136.2 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Ian JangTrinity Christian School | 136.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Nathan LefflerJ.R. Tucker | 136.1 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 83 | William GraingerStafford | 135.7 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Wesley SwartzHarrisonburg | 135.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Kyle SeguraMidlothian | 134.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Caleb SpaidLouisa County | 134.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Carson ShepardLouisa County | 134.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Carter SehlJ.R. Tucker | 133.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Carson SaboHartwood | 133.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 90 | Tanish LimgalaFreedom (South Riding) | 133.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Matias Newcomer-MillerHarrisonburg | 133.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Evan StinesMountain View | 133.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 93 | James GregoryJ.R. Tucker | 133.0 | 2026 · 3 meets | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Kyle RushHarrisonburg | 132.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Aden AvalosRiverbend | 132.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 96 | Hakim DasherWoodberry Forest | 132.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Garrett TambourineMidlothian | 131.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Christopher DymoraGlen Allen | 131.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 99 | Philimon AMountain View | 131.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Nathaniel KvernenHarrisonburg | 131.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among all rated entrants, including runners on unranked teams. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS
3 teams with fewer than five rated entrants
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
- North Stafford3 of 15 rated
- Hickory0 of 8 rated
- Norfolk Academy0 of 17 rated
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Every entrant of the races in the field is placed in one combined field per sex; the coverage notes name those races. This is not an official division result.
- Entries are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated entrants may not be the seven who run.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not an Albemarle course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.