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Oct 12, 2024 · Lorton, VA

fhs invitational 2024

Workhouse Arts Center · Historical 2024 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 131.0), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

1 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls Girls 5000 Meter Run

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C

108 of 108 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −0.5 s course and conditions +20.2 s in-season fitness −20.7 sCourse constant 503.35 (503)Race constant 498.17 (498)

98 used anchors± 7.5 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.063Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 98 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: the first 50 of 98, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Eden Alexander · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 1 more
  2. 2 Ava Vandeventer · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 3 more
  3. 3 Francesca Bayer · Trinity Academy Meadow View: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · and 4 more
  4. 4 Padma Reilly · C.D. Hylton: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Cardinal District Championships (Oct 31)
  5. 5 Lucia Severino · Trinity Academy Meadow View: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  6. 6 Esther Shipley · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Agnes Currey · Immanuel Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Isabelle Horne · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · O'Connoll XC Classic (Oct 9) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Natalie McCormick · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · O'Connoll XC Classic (Oct 9) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Lily Harrington · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · O'Connoll XC Classic (Oct 9) · and 1 more
  11. 11 Grace Fortier · Immanuel Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Veronica Bayer · Trinity Academy Meadow View: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  13. 13 Claire Guillory · Trinity Academy Meadow View: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  14. 14 Bella Connally · Immanuel Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · and 1 more
  15. 15 Anna Lackey · Cornerstone Christian Academy MS - Middleburg: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  16. 16 Madelyn Zeller · Washington Latin Public Charter: The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19)
  17. 17 Amelia Hawk · Northern MD FCA: Eastern Mennonite School XC Kick-Off Race (Aug 30)
  18. 18 Gianna Earl · Virginia: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Eaglefest Invitational (Sep 21)
  19. 19 Annie McCormick · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · O'Connoll XC Classic (Oct 9) · and 1 more
  20. 20 Eden Medefind · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2)
  21. 21 Audrey Erikson · Northern MD FCA: Eastern Mennonite School XC Kick-Off Race (Aug 30)
  22. 22 Hannah Greiner · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · O'Connoll XC Classic (Oct 9) · and 1 more
  23. 23 Rose Waldron · Seton School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 2 more
  24. 24 Grace Taylor · Immanuel Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · and 1 more
  25. 25 Sarah Moser · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · O'Connoll XC Classic (Oct 9) · and 1 more
  26. 26 Rachel Thornton · Northern MD FCA: Eastern Mennonite School XC Kick-Off Race (Aug 30)
  27. 27 Emily Seeley · Saint Sebastian Academy: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · 31st Annual Carlisle Invitational (Sep 28) · and 2 more
  28. 28 Sara Briggs · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2)
  29. 29 Hannah Matthes · C.D. Hylton: Cardinal District Championships (Oct 31)
  30. 30 Hannah Erikson · Northern MD FCA: Eastern Mennonite School XC Kick-Off Race (Aug 30)
  31. 31 Josephine Tromans · Dominion: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Eaglefest Invitational (Sep 21)
  32. 32 Lydia Wheaton · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 3 more
  33. 33 Grace Rempe · Fairfax Home School: Eaglefest Invitational (Sep 21)
  34. 34 Camila Swift · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · O'Connoll XC Classic (Oct 9) · and 1 more
  35. 35 Lydia Faunce · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · O'Connoll XC Classic (Oct 9) · and 1 more
  36. 36 Miriam Crowder · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 2 more
  37. 37 Madelynn Burns · C.D. Hylton: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Cardinal District Championships (Oct 31)
  38. 38 Maddisen Bess · Immanuel Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2)
  39. 39 Madison Crumpler · Cornerstone Christian Academy MS - Middleburg: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Eaglefest Invitational (Sep 21)
  40. 40 Louisa Garcia-McIntire · Trinity Academy Meadow View: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · and 1 more
  41. 41 Isabel Taliaferro · Immanuel Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2)
  42. 42 Kerri Elizabeth Robinson · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · O'Connoll XC Classic (Oct 9) · and 1 more
  43. 43 Kristie Tan · Virginia: Arrows Invitational (Nov 16) · Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · and 1 more
  44. 44 Emma Pipes · Fairfax Home School: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Eaglefest Invitational (Sep 21)
  45. 45 Anna Paulis · James River Eagles Home School Athletics: Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 14)
  46. 46 Kathryn Hammond · Dominion: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Eaglefest Invitational (Sep 21)
  47. 48 Ava Smith · Saint Sebastian Academy: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22)
  48. 49 Zikora Chukwumah · Madeira: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7)
  49. 50 Cecilia Cline · Patriots Running: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · Eaglefest Invitational (Sep 21)
  50. 51 Naomi Bates · C.D. Hylton: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 7) · Cardinal District Championships (Oct 31)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 108 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Eden AlexanderSaint Sebastian Academy · SRFinish 19:28.419:28.419:14.4107.3
2Ava VandeventerSaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 20:07.120:07.119:52.694.5
3Francesca BayerTrinity Academy Meadow View · SRFinish 20:47.920:47.920:32.981.1
4Padma ReillyC.D. Hylton · SOFinish 20:54.520:54.520:39.478.9
5Lucia SeverinoTrinity Academy Meadow View · 8Finish 20:54.520:54.520:39.478.9
6Esther ShipleySaint Sebastian Academy · SRFinish 20:59.420:59.420:44.377.3
7Agnes CurreyImmanuel Christian School · JRFinish 20:59.820:59.820:44.777.2
8Isabelle HorneSpire · SOFinish 21:33.621:33.621:18.166.0
9Natalie McCormickSpire · JRFinish 21:38.321:38.321:22.764.5
10Lily HarringtonSpire · JRFinish 21:56.521:56.521:40.758.5
11Grace FortierImmanuel Christian School · JRFinish 22:05.622:05.621:49.755.5
12Veronica BayerTrinity Academy Meadow View · 8Finish 22:15.222:15.221:59.252.3
13Claire GuilloryTrinity Academy Meadow View · 8Finish 22:15.422:15.421:59.352.3
14Bella ConnallyImmanuel Christian School · SOFinish 22:18.222:18.222:02.151.4
15Anna LackeyCornerstone Christian Academy MS - Middleburg · FRFinish 22:25.622:25.622:09.448.9
16Madelyn ZellerWashington Latin Public Charter · SOFinish 22:30.122:30.122:13.947.4
17Amelia HawkNorthern MD FCA · JRFinish 22:42.622:42.622:26.243.3
18Gianna EarlVirginia · SRFinish 22:44.922:44.922:28.542.6
19Annie McCormickSpire · 8Finish 22:49.222:49.222:32.741.1
20Eden MedefindFairfax Home School · Grade not recordedFinish 22:52.322:52.322:35.840.1
21Audrey EriksonNorthern MD FCA · SRFinish 22:53.622:53.622:37.139.7
22Hannah GreinerSpire · 8Finish 22:56.922:56.922:40.438.6
23Rose WaldronSeton School · SRFinish 22:59.222:59.222:42.637.9
24Grace TaylorImmanuel Christian School · SOFinish 23:07.623:07.622:50.935.1
25Sarah MoserSpire · FRFinish 23:07.723:07.722:51.035.1
26Rachel ThorntonNorthern MD FCA · SRFinish 23:12.823:12.822:56.133.4
27Emily SeeleySaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 23:12.823:12.822:56.133.4
28Sara BriggsFairfax Home School · SRFinish 23:17.623:17.623:00.831.8
29Hannah MatthesC.D. Hylton · JRFinish 23:25.623:25.623:08.729.2
30Hannah EriksonNorthern MD FCA · SOFinish 23:28.923:28.923:12.028.1
31Josephine TromansDominion · SRFinish 23:37.923:37.923:20.925.1
32Lydia WheatonSaint Sebastian Academy · SRFinish 23:51.423:51.423:34.220.7
33Grace RempeFairfax Home School · SOFinish 23:52.323:52.323:35.120.4
34Camila SwiftSpire · SOFinish 24:00.424:00.423:43.117.7
35Lydia FaunceSpire · SOFinish 24:02.924:02.923:45.616.9
36Miriam CrowderSaint Sebastian Academy · SRFinish 24:05.324:05.323:47.916.1
37Madelynn BurnsC.D. Hylton · SOFinish 24:05.824:05.823:48.415.9
38Maddisen BessImmanuel Christian School · JRFinish 24:07.324:07.323:49.915.4
39Madison CrumplerCornerstone Christian Academy MS - Middleburg · FRFinish 24:16.724:16.723:59.212.3
40Louisa Garcia-McIntireTrinity Academy Meadow View · 8Finish 24:17.724:17.724:00.212.0
41Isabel TaliaferroImmanuel Christian School · FRFinish 24:19.324:19.324:01.811.5
42Kerri Elizabeth RobinsonSpire · SRFinish 24:28.124:28.124:10.58.6
43Kristie TanVirginia · JRFinish 24:31.624:31.624:13.97.4
44Emma PipesFairfax Home School · SRFinish 24:41.324:41.324:23.54.2
45Anna PaulisJames River Eagles Home School Athletics · SRFinish 24:54.824:54.824:36.8—
46Kathryn HammondDominion · SOFinish 24:56.024:56.024:38.0—
47Anna WilkinsonVirginia · SOFinish 25:02.325:02.324:44.2—
48Ava SmithSaint Sebastian Academy · SOFinish 25:07.025:07.024:48.9—
49Zikora ChukwumahMadeira · SOFinish 25:09.925:09.924:51.8—
50Cecilia ClinePatriots Running · SOFinish 25:11.125:11.124:52.9—
Show all 108 results (58 more)Showing all 108 results · hide rows 51–108
Girls results, rows 51 to 108 of 108
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Naomi BatesC.D. Hylton · SOFinish 25:11.325:11.324:53.1—
52Isabella KavookjianSaint Sebastian Academy · JRFinish 25:16.625:16.624:58.4—
53Lucy EvichSaint Sebastian Academy · SRFinish 25:19.025:19.025:00.7—
54Sarah RichardsNorthern MD FCA · JRFinish 25:21.225:21.225:02.9—
55Zaria GaskinsChrist Chapel Academy · SRFinish 25:26.325:26.325:08.0—
56Penny KramerSeton School · SOFinish 25:37.325:37.325:18.8—
57Faith FortierImmanuel Christian School · FRFinish 25:48.825:48.825:30.2—
58Lucie ThorntonNorthern MD FCA · SOFinish 25:48.925:48.925:30.3—
59Monica HartungSeton School · JRFinish 26:13.726:13.725:54.8—
60Sarah AndersonImmanuel Christian School · SRFinish 26:17.626:17.625:58.6—
61Grace MadsenEvergreen Christian School · FRFinish 26:20.526:20.526:01.5—
62Sydney ArllenTrinity Academy Meadow View · JRFinish 26:23.326:23.326:04.3—
63Sadie ThornburghSaint Sebastian Academy · SRFinish 26:33.126:33.126:14.0—
64Samantha McLartyFairfax Home School · SOFinish 26:36.026:36.026:16.8—
65Eunhye GrayDominion · FRFinish 26:42.026:42.026:22.7—
66Mercy GrantPatriots Running · FRFinish 26:55.126:55.126:35.7—
67Eva Van HornNorthern Virginia Homeschool Athletic Association · FRFinish 26:57.026:57.026:37.6—
68Anne BurkhalterNorthern Virginia Homeschool Athletic Association · SOFinish 27:09.027:09.026:49.4—
69Maria BurkhalterNorthern Virginia Homeschool Athletic Association · SRFinish 27:12.927:12.926:53.3—
70Philomena KaySeton School · SOFinish 27:25.327:25.327:05.5—
71Lexi SandsNorthern MD FCA · SOFinish 27:30.927:30.927:11.1—
72Juliet LongNorthern Virginia Homeschool Athletic Association · SOFinish 27:38.527:38.527:18.6—
73Miriam BuuckFairfax Home School · FRFinish 27:44.427:44.427:24.4—
74Addison HillCovenant Christian Academy · FRFinish 27:47.927:47.927:27.9—
75Josie AndersonFairfax Home School · SOFinish 27:48.027:48.027:28.0—
76Olivia MeadowsNorthern Virginia Homeschool Athletic Association · JRFinish 28:03.328:03.327:43.1—
77Sally GrossSeton School · SOFinish 28:09.728:09.727:49.4—
78Angela HenneSaint Sebastian Academy · FRFinish 28:15.028:15.027:54.6—
79Selah WarmkaFairfax Home School · SOFinish 28:17.528:17.527:57.1—
80Annaliese DeloyeTrinity Academy Meadow View · SOFinish 28:32.228:32.228:11.6—
81Celia GeurkinkNorthern Virginia Homeschool Athletic Association · JRFinish 28:39.828:39.828:19.1—
82Elena WightMadeira School · FRFinish 28:39.928:39.928:19.2—
83Cora KramerSeton School · SOFinish 28:41.228:41.228:20.5—
84Avni SachdevMadeira School · FRFinish 28:41.928:41.928:21.2—
85Rosie DalgettyEvergreen Christian School · FRFinish 28:57.028:57.028:36.1—
86Larkin RoneyNorthern MD FCA · SOFinish 29:37.629:37.629:16.2—
87Colette KramerSeton School · JRFinish 30:09.230:09.229:47.5—
88Jessica MessmerNorthern Virginia Homeschool Athletic Association · JRFinish 30:17.630:17.629:55.8—
89Lulu WernickTrinity Academy Meadow View · FRFinish 30:22.130:22.130:00.2—
90Serena WeckMadeira School · SOFinish 30:39.330:39.330:17.2—
91Chloe FitzpatrickTrinity Academy Meadow View · 8Finish 31:00.531:00.530:38.1—
92Marcail WhiteFairfax Home School · JRFinish 31:10.631:10.630:48.1—
93Evie MengSaint Sebastian Academy · FRFinish 31:13.631:13.630:51.1—
94Anna AlexanderSaint Sebastian Academy · FRFinish 31:13.731:13.730:51.2—
95Hannah WalshEvergreen Christian School · JRFinish 31:23.831:23.831:01.2—
96Bethel IsaacImmanuel Christian School · JRFinish 31:55.731:55.731:32.7—
97Daniela BaileyChrist Chapel Academy · FRFinish 32:01.332:01.331:38.2—
98Ariana FrancisFairfax Home School · FRFinish 32:08.732:08.731:45.5—
99Natalynn ParkinsonImmanuel Christian School · FRFinish 32:27.532:27.532:04.1—
100Cave CaitlinC.D. Hylton · SOFinish 32:27.632:27.632:04.2—
101Willow GarlockNorthern Virginia Homeschool Athletic Association · FRFinish 33:13.933:13.932:49.9—
102Ethan DeleonWashington Latin Public Charter · JRFinish 34:19.134:19.133:54.4—
103Amelia VelezMadeira School · FRFinish 34:26.134:26.134:01.3—
104Isel LoriaPatriots Running · FRFinish 35:24.735:24.734:59.2—
106Gracie GarmanNorthern Virginia Homeschool Athletic Association · FRFinish 36:35.136:35.136:08.7—
107Madeline OliverCovenant Christian Academy · FRFinish 36:52.336:52.336:25.7—
108Brielle ThompsonEvergreen Christian School · FRFinish 36:59.436:59.436:32.7—
109Dani AustinEvergreen Christian School · FRFinish 36:59.636:59.636:32.9—

fhs invitational 2024, Oct 12, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.