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Oct 9, 2024 · Newport News, VA

O'Connoll XC Classic

Bluemont Park 5K Course · Historical 2024 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 163.9), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

1 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run

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B

72 of 72 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −26.3 s course and conditions −11.2 s in-season fitness −15.1 sCourse constant 490.32 (490)Race constant 486.23 (486)

49 used anchors± 4.5 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.063Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 49 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 49, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Catherine Messing · Bishop Ireton: Nike Cross Nationals Southeast Regional (Nov 23) · VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Regan Schultz · Bishop Ireton: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 1 more
  3. 3 Lauren Parker · St. Paul VI Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Grace Fumich · Bishop O'Connell: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 6 more
  5. 5 Isabelle Horne · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  6. 6 Natalie McCormick · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  7. 7 Lilly Wahl · St. Paul VI Catholic: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · and 3 more
  8. 8 Lily Harrington · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Elise Fitzgibbon · St. Paul VI Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22)
  10. 10 Lauren Ivey · St. Paul VI Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Annie McCormick · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Danielle Fransella · St. Paul VI Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 3 more
  13. 13 Delaney Park · Bishop O'Connell: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 5 more
  14. 14 Keshia Kouami · St. Paul VI Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 1 more
  15. 15 Kathia Kouami · St. Paul VI Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 1 more
  16. 18 Anna Simon · Bishop Ireton: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 1 more
  17. 20 Hannah Greiner · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  18. 21 Catherine Hodges · Spire: Eaglefest Invitational (Sep 21)
  19. 22 Kerri Elizabeth Robinson · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  20. 23 Vivienne Davis · Bishop Ireton: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 2 more
  21. 24 Reagan Kaleta · Bishop Ireton: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · Monroe Parker Invitational (Sep 7)
  22. 26 Camila Swift · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  23. 27 Danielle Rodriguez · Bishop O'Connell: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 4 more
  24. 28 Eden Boyd · Bishop Ireton: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 2 more
  25. 30 Niamh Moreno · Bishop Ireton: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5)
  26. 31 Lauren Smith · Bishop O'Connell: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 4 more
  27. 32 Isabel Mallonee · Bishop O'Connell: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 3 more
  28. 33 Sarah Moser · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  29. 34 Mairin Dziepak · Bishop O'Connell: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 4 more
  30. 35 Lydia Faunce · Spire: Spire Invitational and Nviac Championships (Nov 2) · FHS Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  31. 36 Ava Quintas · St. Paul VI Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 2 more
  32. 37 Blythe McDaniel · Bishop Ireton: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 1 more
  33. 38 Sophia Miller · St. Paul VI Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7)
  34. 39 Aubrianna Culligan · St. Paul VI Catholic: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22)
  35. 40 Angela Ciatti · Bishop Ireton: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 1 more
  36. 41 Kathleen Ferguson · Bishop Ireton: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22)
  37. 42 Virginia Cheatham · Bishop Ireton: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22)
  38. 43 Virginia Vorhees · Bishop Ireton: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · and 1 more
  39. 46 Natalie Raboin · Bishop O'Connell: Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 5) · Arlington County Championships (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  40. 48 Lily Spann · Bishop O'Connell: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 3 more
  41. 49 Hannah Harmer · Bishop O'Connell: Arlington County Championships (Sep 24)
  42. 51 Julia Choi · St. Paul VI Catholic: Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 14)
  43. 52 Ellen Perkins · St. Paul VI Catholic: Fork Union Cross Country Invitational (Sep 14)
  44. 53 Maggie Budd · Bishop O'Connell: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · Arlington County Championships (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  45. 56 Anne Palmer · Bishop O'Connell: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22) · Arlington County Championships (Sep 24) · and 1 more
  46. 57 Jillian Sok · Bishop O'Connell: Arlington County Championships (Sep 24)
  47. 64 Madison Trice · Bishop O'Connell: Arlington County Championships (Sep 24)
  48. 67 Alice Perez-Andia · Bishop O'Connell: Arlington County Championships (Sep 24)
  49. 68 Ciara Funk · Bishop Ireton: Virginia Catholic State Championship (Oct 22)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 72 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Catherine MessingBishop Ireton · FRFinish 17:43.717:43.717:56.3133.3
2Regan SchultzBishop Ireton · JRFinish 20:29.420:29.420:43.977.4
3Lauren ParkerSt. Paul VI Catholic · JRFinish 20:36.020:36.020:50.675.2
4Grace FumichBishop O'Connell · FRFinish 20:42.620:42.620:57.373.0
5Isabelle HorneSpire · SOFinish 20:50.620:50.621:05.470.3
6Natalie McCormickSpire · JRFinish 21:09.921:09.921:24.963.8
7Lilly WahlSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 21:10.521:10.521:25.563.6
8Lily HarringtonSpire · JRFinish 21:21.821:21.821:37.059.7
9Elise FitzgibbonSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 21:22.021:22.021:37.259.7
10Lauren IveySt. Paul VI Catholic · JRFinish 21:23.121:23.121:38.359.3
11Annie McCormickSpire · 8Finish 21:27.321:27.321:42.557.9
12Danielle FransellaSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 21:31.421:31.421:46.756.5
13Delaney ParkBishop O'Connell · SRFinish 21:33.421:33.421:48.755.8
14Keshia KouamiSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 21:49.721:49.722:05.250.3
15Kathia KouamiSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 21:52.021:52.022:07.549.6
16Eve SharpCharles E. Smith Jewish Day School · SOFinish 22:00.622:00.622:16.246.7
17Shira ShapiroCharles E. Smith Jewish Day School · SRFinish 22:01.422:01.422:17.046.4
18Anna SimonBishop Ireton · JRFinish 22:06.522:06.522:22.244.7
19Gillian KrauthamerCharles E. Smith Jewish Day School · SOFinish 22:11.322:11.322:27.143.0
20Hannah GreinerSpire · 8Finish 22:17.222:17.222:33.041.1
21Catherine HodgesSpire · 7Finish 22:26.922:26.922:42.837.8
22Kerri Elizabeth RobinsonSpire · SRFinish 23:34.723:34.723:51.414.9
23Vivienne DavisBishop Ireton · SOFinish 23:37.823:37.823:54.613.9
24Reagan KaletaBishop Ireton · JRFinish 23:38.023:38.023:54.813.8
25Rayut Weiser-RosenbaumCharles E. Smith Jewish Day School · 8Finish 23:44.023:44.024:00.911.8
26Camila SwiftSpire · SOFinish 23:49.823:49.824:06.79.8
27Danielle RodriguezBishop O'Connell · SRFinish 23:57.823:57.824:14.87.1
28Eden BoydBishop Ireton · SOFinish 23:57.823:57.824:14.87.1
29Mali OsofskyCharles E. Smith Jewish Day School · SOFinish 24:02.224:02.224:19.35.6
30Niamh MorenoBishop Ireton · JRFinish 24:19.724:19.724:37.0—
31Lauren SmithBishop O'Connell · Grade not recordedFinish 24:22.824:22.824:40.1—
32Isabel MalloneeBishop O'Connell · Grade not recordedFinish 24:24.124:24.124:41.4—
33Sarah MoserSpire · FRFinish 24:26.624:26.624:44.0—
34Mairin DziepakBishop O'Connell · Grade not recordedFinish 24:27.324:27.324:44.7—
35Lydia FaunceSpire · SOFinish 24:27.824:27.824:45.2—
36Ava QuintasSt. Paul VI Catholic · SRFinish 24:37.724:37.724:55.2—
37Blythe McDanielBishop Ireton · SRFinish 24:39.324:39.324:56.8—
38Sophia MillerSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 24:43.224:43.225:00.8—
39Aubrianna CulliganSt. Paul VI Catholic · JRFinish 24:52.924:52.925:10.6—
40Angela CiattiBishop Ireton · FRFinish 24:53.424:53.425:11.1—
41Kathleen FergusonBishop Ireton · SRFinish 24:55.524:55.525:13.2—
42Virginia CheathamBishop Ireton · JRFinish 25:07.025:07.025:24.8—
43Virginia VorheesBishop Ireton · JRFinish 25:13.525:13.525:31.4—
44Catherine ShakerSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 25:20.425:20.425:38.4—
45Ali IanarelliSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 25:25.725:25.725:43.8—
46Natalie RaboinBishop O'Connell · SOFinish 25:53.125:53.126:11.5—
47Natalie DuranBishop Ireton · FRFinish 25:55.325:55.326:13.7—
48Lily SpannBishop O'Connell · SRFinish 26:44.926:44.927:03.9—
49Hannah HarmerBishop O'Connell · FRFinish 27:08.727:08.727:28.0—
50Taylor LeiterSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 27:31.227:31.227:50.7—
Show all 72 results (22 more)Showing all 72 results · hide rows 51–72
Girls results, rows 51 to 72 of 72
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Julia ChoiSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 27:37.927:37.927:57.5—
52Ellen PerkinsSt. Paul VI Catholic · SOFinish 27:40.027:40.027:59.6—
53Maggie BuddBishop O'Connell · SRFinish 27:40.727:40.728:00.4—
54Gabriela UrrutiaBishop Ireton · FRFinish 27:47.227:47.228:06.9—
55Madeline LeeSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 27:49.827:49.828:09.6—
56Anne PalmerBishop O'Connell · Grade not recordedFinish 27:59.827:59.828:19.7—
57Jillian SokBishop O'Connell · FRFinish 28:07.728:07.728:27.7—
58Abigail HoenleBishop Ireton · SOFinish 28:47.328:47.329:07.7—
59Evelyn RennoldsSt. Paul VI Catholic · SOFinish 28:47.428:47.429:07.8—
60Emme SchuetyBishop Ireton · SOFinish 28:49.728:49.729:10.2—
61Nile LewisSt. Paul VI Catholic · JRFinish 28:54.828:54.829:15.3—
62Noelle SimsBishop Ireton · FRFinish 28:59.328:59.329:19.9—
63Kensi SylviaBishop Ireton · JRFinish 29:16.329:16.329:37.1—
64Madison TriceBishop O'Connell · SOFinish 29:45.829:45.830:06.9—
65Kierra FullerSt. Paul VI Catholic · JRFinish 30:29.530:29.530:51.1—
66Madeline MihalikBishop O'Connell · JRFinish 30:35.330:35.330:57.0—
67Alice Perez-AndiaBishop O'Connell · FRFinish 31:15.331:15.331:37.5—
68Ciara FunkBishop Ireton · JRFinish 31:18.331:18.331:40.5—
69Annie ScoleseBishop Ireton · SRFinish 31:33.131:33.131:55.5—
70Alexis LeiterSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 31:34.031:34.031:56.4—
71Jayden StapletonSt. Paul VI Catholic · FRFinish 32:18.032:18.032:40.9—
72Juliet GaliciaBishop Ireton · FRFinish 33:07.933:07.933:31.4—

O'Connoll XC Classic, Oct 9, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.