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Oct 27, 2022 · Nokesville, VA

Cardinal District XC Championships

Nokesville Park · Historical 2022 results

Other years: 2025 · 2024 · 2023

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Checked against TullyRunners at 11 held-out meets, 2022's ratings sit a median of 5.0 points (boys) and 4.7 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Cardinal District Championship Nokesville Park, Nokesville, VA - 10/27/2022 Boys Varsity 5k

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A

41 of 42 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −13.6 s course and conditions +9.1 s in-season fitness −22.8 sCourse constant 494.73 (495)Race constant 490.90 (491)

20 used anchors± 2.1 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.973Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 20 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 20, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Hayden Hauser · Colgan: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Hayden Goodman · Woodbridge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 1 more
  3. 3 Jaiden Lockhart · Woodbridge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  4. 4 John Hargis · Forest Park: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  5. 5 Andrew Kight · Colgan: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  6. 6 Dylan Zimmerman · Colgan: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  7. 7 James Yoho · Woodbridge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  8. 8 Nathanael McMahon · Woodbridge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  9. 9 Gavin Kegler · Woodbridge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  10. 10 Collin Keehan · Woodbridge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Connor Finegan · Colgan: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Joseph Moore · Forest Park: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  13. 13 Leo Mantoan · C.D. Hylton: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Cpt Doug Richardson King Of The Hill Challenge (Sep 10)
  14. 14 Jacob Hakizimana · Colgan: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  15. 15 Owen Renquist · Woodbridge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 1 more
  16. 17 Dustin Crawford · Forest Park: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · Hood College HS Invitational (Sep 3)
  17. 18 Aidan Riggle · Colgan: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  18. 19 Andrew Sager · Forest Park: Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · Hood College HS Invitational (Sep 3)
  19. 20 Joseph Pimentel · Forest Park: Hood College HS Invitational (Sep 3)
  20. 23 Xavier Ogo · Forest Park: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 42 of 42 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Hayden HauserColgan · SRFinish 15:50.315:50.315:48.0174.0
2Hayden GoodmanWoodbridge · SOFinish 16:11.016:11.016:08.7167.1
3Jaiden LockhartWoodbridge · SRFinish 16:18.916:18.916:16.5164.5
4John HargisForest Park · SRFinish 16:36.316:36.316:33.9158.7
5Andrew KightColgan · JRFinish 16:48.416:48.416:46.0154.6
6Dylan ZimmermanColgan · JRFinish 16:54.016:54.016:51.6152.8
7James YohoWoodbridge · SRFinish 17:15.717:15.717:13.2145.6
8Nathanael McMahonWoodbridge · JRFinish 17:30.117:30.117:27.6140.8
9Gavin KeglerWoodbridge · SRFinish 17:30.317:30.317:27.8140.7
10Collin KeehanWoodbridge · SOFinish 17:31.417:31.417:28.9140.3
11Connor FineganColgan · SOFinish 17:43.817:43.817:41.2136.2
12Joseph MooreForest Park · SRFinish 17:45.617:45.617:43.0135.6
13Leo MantoanC.D. Hylton · SRFinish 17:46.117:46.117:43.5135.5
14Jacob HakizimanaColgan · JRFinish 17:56.317:56.317:53.7132.1
15Owen RenquistWoodbridge · SOFinish 17:56.417:56.417:53.8132.0
16Braxton McDanielPotomac Senior High · JRFinish 18:15.918:15.918:13.3125.6
17Dustin CrawfordForest Park · JRFinish 18:19.418:19.418:16.8124.4
18Aidan RiggleColgan · SRFinish 18:28.818:28.818:26.1121.3
19Andrew SagerForest Park · SRFinish 18:51.518:51.518:48.8113.7
20Joseph PimentelForest Park · SOFinish 19:05.419:05.419:02.6109.1
21Jacob ZimmermanColgan · FRFinish 19:15.419:15.419:12.6105.8
22Jesse EarpForest Park · SOFinish 19:27.619:27.619:24.8101.7
23Xavier OgoForest Park · SRFinish 20:29.820:29.820:26.881.0
24Farraj Al-AminFreedom (Woodbridge) · SOFinish 20:43.420:43.420:40.476.5
25Jelonnie BlountFreedom (Woodbridge) · SOFinish 20:59.020:59.020:56.071.3
26Triston CrawfordFreedom (Woodbridge) · SOFinish 21:06.521:06.521:03.568.8
27Ky'Ellis TumblinPotomac Senior High · FRFinish 21:08.321:08.321:05.368.2
28Adam MarcellC.D. Hylton · SRFinish 22:02.822:02.821:59.650.1
29Edward KoromaPotomac Senior High · SOFinish 22:13.822:13.822:10.646.4
30Matthew ParadaGar-Field · SRFinish 22:24.722:24.722:21.542.8
31Jason RomeroGar-Field · SOFinish 22:38.722:38.722:35.438.2
32Leonel Cortez-AmayaC.D. Hylton · SRFinish 22:40.622:40.622:37.337.5
33Ray VegaGar-Field · SOFinish 23:09.823:09.823:06.527.8
34Charles DubiosC.D. Hylton · JRFinish 23:11.923:11.923:08.627.1
35Keenen DavisFreedom (Woodbridge) · FRFinish 23:20.923:20.923:17.524.1
36Antonio JamesGar-Field · SRFinish 23:24.523:24.523:21.122.9
37Andrew BoatengGar-Field · JRFinish 23:29.823:29.823:26.421.2
38Travis MissickFreedom (Woodbridge) · JRFinish 24:18.524:18.524:15.05.0
39Lucas MedinaPotomac Senior High · SOFinish 24:24.324:24.324:20.83.0
40Cameron ParoskieC.D. Hylton · JRFinish 24:30.824:30.824:27.30.9
41Sean DavisPotomac Senior High · FRFinish 26:13.226:13.226:09.4—
DQREESE, JeremiahGar-Field · JRFinish UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Girls Varsity 5k

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C

35 of 35 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −35.6 s course and conditions −12.5 s in-season fitness −23.2 sCourse constant 488.14 (488)Race constant 485.21 (485)

22 used anchors± 6.4 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.465Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 22 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Listed here: all 22, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Elizabeth Gregory · Forest Park: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Ava Okun · Forest Park: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  3. 3 Liana Eberly · Woodbridge: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Kennedy Korzen · Forest Park: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Mauli Harford · Colgan: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  6. 6 Madeline Johnson · Forest Park: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 2 more
  7. 7 Psalmn Jones · Colgan: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Camila Giudici · Colgan: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Jill Crunkilton · Woodbridge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Grace Gregory · Forest Park: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 1 more
  11. 11 Rania Carter · Potomac Senior High: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3)
  12. 12 Neve Kelly · Woodbridge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  13. 13 Angela Payne · Colgan: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · Albemarle Invitational (Oct 8)
  14. 14 Ella Jensen · Forest Park: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · and 1 more
  15. 15 Marleigh Wilson · Woodbridge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  16. 16 Charlotte Bobeck · Forest Park: VHSL Class 6 State XC Meet (Nov 12) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Erin Brennan · Colgan: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  18. 18 Anna Roberts · Woodbridge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  19. 19 Natalie Masters · Colgan: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  20. 20 Paige Brown · Colgan: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15) · and 1 more
  21. 21 Vayda Rich · Woodbridge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
  22. 23 Brooklyn George · Woodbridge: 6B Region Championship (Nov 3) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 15)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 35 of 35 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Elizabeth GregoryForest Park · JRFinish 18:35.118:35.118:52.4115.0
2Ava OkunForest Park · SRFinish 19:35.019:35.019:53.394.7
3Liana EberlyWoodbridge · FRFinish 19:55.319:55.320:13.987.8
4Kennedy KorzenForest Park · SRFinish 20:25.220:25.220:44.377.7
5Mauli HarfordColgan · SOFinish 20:56.720:56.721:16.367.0
6Madeline JohnsonForest Park · SOFinish 21:03.721:03.721:23.464.7
7Psalmn JonesColgan · JRFinish 21:19.421:19.421:39.359.4
8Camila GiudiciColgan · JRFinish 21:19.521:19.521:39.459.3
9Jill CrunkiltonWoodbridge · SRFinish 21:30.021:30.021:50.155.8
10Grace GregoryForest Park · FRFinish 21:35.221:35.221:55.354.0
11Rania CarterPotomac Senior High · SOFinish 21:36.421:36.421:56.653.6
12Neve KellyWoodbridge · JRFinish 21:41.121:41.122:01.352.0
13Angela PayneColgan · SRFinish 21:56.821:56.822:17.346.7
14Ella JensenForest Park · JRFinish 22:07.722:07.722:28.443.0
15Marleigh WilsonWoodbridge · FRFinish 22:09.522:09.522:30.242.4
16Charlotte BobeckForest Park · SOFinish 22:17.022:17.022:37.839.9
17Erin BrennanColgan · SRFinish 22:33.822:33.822:54.934.2
18Anna RobertsWoodbridge · FRFinish 23:19.423:19.423:41.218.7
19Natalie MastersColgan · SOFinish 23:22.023:22.023:43.817.9
20Paige BrownColgan · SRFinish 23:40.723:40.724:02.811.5
21Vayda RichWoodbridge · FRFinish 23:45.223:45.224:07.410.0
22Ruqayyah ByrdFreedom (Woodbridge) · JRFinish 24:19.424:19.424:42.1—
23Brooklyn GeorgeWoodbridge · FRFinish 25:01.025:01.025:24.4—
24Amanda BoatengFreedom (Woodbridge) · JRFinish 25:32.225:32.225:56.0—
25Diana GuzmanC.D. Hylton · SOFinish 25:43.625:43.626:07.6—
26Lauryn PearsonC.D. Hylton · SOFinish 25:44.225:44.226:08.2—
27Madilynn SantosFreedom (Woodbridge) · SOFinish 28:51.228:51.229:18.1—
28Kasey DiggsFreedom (Woodbridge) · SRFinish 30:03.730:03.730:31.8—
29Camay McCurdyGar-Field · SOFinish 30:34.830:34.831:03.3—
30Viviana SaezC.D. Hylton · SOFinish 30:35.230:35.231:03.7—
31Irenose EhichioyaPotomac Senior High · SRFinish 31:33.331:33.332:02.8—
32Samah OsmanGar-Field · SRFinish 32:03.932:03.932:33.8—
33Madison SwaniganC.D. Hylton · SOFinish 33:59.833:59.834:31.5—
34Yasmin Mendez DiazGar-Field · JRFinish 34:15.234:15.234:47.2—
35Jasmaine WatsonGar-Field · SRFinish 36:41.536:41.537:15.7—

Cardinal District XC Championships, Oct 27, 2022

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.