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Oct 23, 2023 · Nokesville, VA

Cardinal District XC Championships

Nokesville Park · Historical 2023 results

Other years: 2025 · 2024 · 2022

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Checked against TullyRunners at 8 held-out meets, 2023's ratings sit a median of 2.1 points (boys) and 7.1 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

2 of 2 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

2023 VHSL Cardinal District XC Championships Nokesville Park, Nokesville, VA - 10/23/2023 Girls 5000 Meters (High School)

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C

34 of 36 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −36.9 s course and conditions −14.5 s in-season fitness −22.4 sCourse constant 488.64 (489)Race constant 486.63 (487)

24 used anchors± 11.7 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 494.161Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 24 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 24, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Elizabeth Gregory · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  2. 2 Liana Eberly · Woodbridge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  3. 3 Mauli Harford · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · VTCA Fall Classic (Sep 30) · and 1 more
  4. 4 Caroline Drunasky · Woodbridge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  5. 5 Psalmn Jones · Colgan: VTCA Fall Classic (Sep 30)
  6. 6 Marleigh Wilson · Woodbridge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  7. 7 Penny Nowell-Shortt · Woodbridge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · VTCA Fall Classic (Sep 30)
  8. 8 Natalia Dias · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 1 more
  9. 9 Rania Carter · Potomac: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Katelyn Brown · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 1 more
  11. 11 Padma Reilly · C.D. Hylton: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2)
  12. 12 Grace Gregory · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  13. 13 Alyssa Galarza · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · VTCA Fall Classic (Sep 30)
  14. 14 Aklecia Ambachew · Gar-Field: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2)
  15. 15 Vayda Rich · Woodbridge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  16. 16 Enya Joseph · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2)
  17. 17 Heather Masters · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7) · and 1 more
  18. 18 Jane Dick · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  19. 19 Annabelle Holman · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
  20. 20 Isabelle Kostan · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2)
  21. 21 Brooklyn George · Woodbridge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  22. 22 Marissa Ogo · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
  23. 25 Ella Jensen · Forest Park: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
  24. 33 Kaylan Culpepper · Potomac: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
Girls results, places shown 1 to 36 of 36 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Elizabeth GregoryForest Park · SRFinish 18:17.118:17.118:35.4122.4
2Liana EberlyWoodbridge · SOFinish 18:44.918:44.919:03.6113.0
3Mauli HarfordColgan · JRFinish 20:08.120:08.120:28.284.8
4Caroline DrunaskyWoodbridge · FRFinish 20:33.620:33.620:54.176.1
5Psalmn JonesColgan · SRFinish 20:59.520:59.521:20.567.3
6Marleigh WilsonWoodbridge · SOFinish 21:04.921:04.921:26.065.5
7Penny Nowell-ShorttWoodbridge · JRFinish 21:14.321:14.321:35.562.3
8Natalia DiasColgan · SRFinish 21:39.721:39.722:01.353.7
9Rania CarterPotomac · JRFinish 21:50.421:50.422:12.250.1
10Katelyn BrownColgan · FRFinish 21:52.521:52.522:14.349.4
11Padma ReillyC.D. Hylton · FRFinish 21:55.121:55.122:17.048.5
12Grace GregoryForest Park · SOFinish 21:56.521:56.522:18.448.0
13Alyssa GalarzaColgan · JRFinish 21:57.021:57.022:18.947.9
14Aklecia AmbachewGar-Field · JRFinish 22:04.422:04.422:26.445.3
15Vayda RichWoodbridge · SOFinish 22:31.222:31.222:53.736.3
16Enya JosephColgan · FRFinish 22:32.922:32.922:55.435.7
17Heather MastersColgan · JRFinish 22:35.222:35.222:57.834.9
18Jane DickForest Park · SOFinish 22:40.722:40.723:03.333.0
19Annabelle HolmanForest Park · SRFinish 22:45.122:45.123:07.831.6
20Isabelle KostanForest Park · FRFinish 23:33.923:33.923:57.415.0
21Brooklyn GeorgeWoodbridge · SOFinish 23:48.023:48.024:11.810.2
22Marissa OgoForest Park · JRFinish 23:52.223:52.224:16.08.8
23Sereen MataC.D. Hylton · FRFinish 23:52.923:52.924:16.78.6
24Ruqayyah ByrdFreedom (Woodbridge) · SRFinish 23:54.623:54.624:18.58.0
25Ella JensenForest Park · SRFinish 24:10.624:10.624:34.72.6
26Lauryn PearsonC.D. Hylton · JRFinish 25:06.225:06.225:31.3—
27Madelynn BurnsC.D. Hylton · FRFinish 26:26.926:26.926:53.3—
28Diana GuzmanC.D. Hylton · JRFinish 26:34.326:34.327:00.8—
29Salma KamalC.D. Hylton · JRFinish 28:54.628:54.629:23.5—
30Laylah ParkerGar-Field · SRFinish 28:58.728:58.729:27.6—
31Samantha HerdtFreedom (Woodbridge) · FRFinish 29:21.429:21.429:50.7—
32Nhyira KutortseC.D. Hylton · JRFinish 33:28.033:28.034:01.4—
33Kaylan CulpepperPotomac · SOFinish 35:02.435:02.435:37.4—
34Tatiana BaltianGar-Field · JRFinish 35:17.035:17.035:52.2—
35Marie SesayGar-Field · SRFinish 46:42.646:42.6UnavailableUnavailable
DNSBUTTERFIELD, AnyaForest Park · FRFinish UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

1 row: time outside the rated range.

BOYS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Boys 5000 Meters (High School)

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D

36 of 37 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −2.6 s course and conditions +18.8 s in-season fitness −21.5 sCourse constant 496.13 (496)Race constant 494.32 (494)

24 used anchors± 15.0 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 489.934Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 24 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 24, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Hayden Goodman · Woodbridge: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · and 3 more
  2. 2 Andrew Kight · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  3. 3 Nathanael McMahon · Woodbridge: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · and 3 more
  4. 4 Owen Renquist · Woodbridge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Collin Keehan · Woodbridge: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · and 2 more
  6. 6 Cameron McDuffie · Woodbridge: NXR Southeast Regional (Nov 19) · VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · and 1 more
  7. 7 Deaven Roberts · Woodbridge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Jacob Zimmerman · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Joshua Duncan · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  10. 10 Jacob Hakizimana · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 3 more
  11. 11 Braxton McDaniel · Potomac: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  12. 12 Patrick Stormer · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  13. 13 Mason Riggle · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7)
  14. 14 Colin Magnell · Colgan: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · Third Battle Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  15. 15 Mitchell Scofield · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  16. 16 Dustin Crawford · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
  17. 17 Bradley Johnson · Woodbridge: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 1 more
  18. 18 Josh Andersson · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  19. 19 Edward Koroma · Potomac: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Great Meadow Invitational (Sep 9)
  20. 20 Kieran McDaniel · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · and 2 more
  21. 21 Brandon Durham · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
  22. 22 John Pedersen · Forest Park: VHSL Region 6B Cross Country Championships (Nov 2) · MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14)
  23. 25 Jason Flannagan · Forest Park: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7)
  24. 26 Ahmir Harris · Potomac: MileStat.com XC Invitational (Oct 14) · Octoberfest Invitational (Oct 7)
Boys results, places shown 1 to 37 of 37 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Hayden GoodmanWoodbridge · JRFinish 16:19.916:19.916:08.6167.1
2Andrew KightColgan · SRFinish 16:30.116:30.116:18.7163.7
3Nathanael McMahonWoodbridge · SRFinish 16:41.316:41.316:29.7160.0
4Owen RenquistWoodbridge · JRFinish 16:58.716:58.716:46.9154.3
5Collin KeehanWoodbridge · JRFinish 17:06.917:06.916:55.0151.6
6Cameron McDuffieWoodbridge · JRFinish 17:23.817:23.817:11.7146.0
7Deaven RobertsWoodbridge · JRFinish 17:32.617:32.617:20.4143.1
8Jacob ZimmermanColgan · SOFinish 17:57.617:57.617:45.1134.9
9Joshua DuncanColgan · SRFinish 18:01.818:01.817:49.3133.5
10Jacob HakizimanaColgan · SRFinish 18:08.018:08.017:55.4131.5
11Braxton McDanielPotomac · SRFinish 18:08.618:08.617:56.0131.3
12Patrick StormerColgan · FRFinish 18:11.618:11.617:59.0130.3
13Mason RiggleColgan · FRFinish 18:19.918:19.918:07.2127.5
14Colin MagnellColgan · SOFinish 18:20.218:20.218:07.5127.4
15Mitchell ScofieldForest Park · SRFinish 18:29.618:29.618:16.8124.3
16Dustin CrawfordForest Park · SRFinish 18:42.718:42.718:29.7120.0
17Bradley JohnsonWoodbridge · FRFinish 18:49.418:49.418:36.3117.8
18Josh AnderssonForest Park · JRFinish 18:52.818:52.818:39.7116.7
19Edward KoromaPotomac · JRFinish 19:02.419:02.418:49.2113.5
20Kieran McDanielForest Park · JRFinish 19:20.719:20.719:07.3107.5
21Brandon DurhamForest Park · JRFinish 19:28.219:28.219:14.7105.0
22John PedersenForest Park · JRFinish 19:29.419:29.419:15.9104.6
23Ezkiel AmbachewGar-Field · FRFinish 19:52.219:52.219:38.497.1
24Ky'Ellis TumblinPotomac Senior High · SOFinish 19:53.219:53.219:39.496.8
25Jason FlannaganForest Park · JRFinish 20:07.420:07.419:53.492.1
26Ahmir HarrisPotomac · JRFinish 20:36.920:36.920:22.682.4
27Dominic NewbiePotomac Senior High · FRFinish 22:03.522:03.521:48.253.9
28Tyler EspinozaGar-Field · FRFinish 22:51.622:51.622:35.738.0
29Joselius CastilloGar-Field · SRFinish 23:07.223:07.222:51.232.9
30Jason RomeroGar-Field · JRFinish 23:38.223:38.223:21.822.7
31Travis MissickFreedom (Woodbridge) · SRFinish 23:42.223:42.223:25.821.3
32Andrew BoatengGar-Field · SRFinish 26:02.226:02.225:44.1—
33Ellis Bowers JrFreedom (Woodbridge) · JRFinish 26:12.826:12.825:54.6—
34Benjamin WolfordC.D. Hylton · FRFinish 26:15.426:15.425:57.2—
35Seifeldin ElsayadiGar-Field · FRFinish 31:33.731:33.731:11.8—
36Bryce MessiFreedom (Woodbridge) · SRFinish 35:49.635:49.635:24.8—
DNSLEE, RobbieForest Park · JRFinish UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Cardinal District XC Championships, Oct 23, 2023

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Not rated. The finish time is outside the range we rate (12:00–45:00 for a 5K), so it has no adjustment or rating.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.