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Sep 19, 2024 · Chesapeake, VA

Greenbrier Christian XC Invite

Bells Mill Park · Historical 2024 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 153.7), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

2 of 4 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero. JV races are not calculated on their own. Each uses its meet’s varsity adjustment plus a JV adjustment.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run

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C

62 of 62 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +66.4 s course and conditions +46.2 s in-season fitness +20.3 sCourse constant 514.57 (515)Race constant 517.78 (518)

54 used anchors± 7.8 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.063Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 54 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: the first 50 of 54, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Rachel Prince · Greenbrier Christian Academy: Nike Cross Nationals Southeast Regional (Nov 23) · VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · and 5 more
  2. 2 Jane Earp · Norfolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12)
  3. 3 Rylee Herum · Teach Beach Breakers: Bill McGough Invitational (Sep 14)
  4. 4 Brynn Barley · Cape Henry Collegiate: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  5. 5 Scarlett Bauer · Teach Beach Breakers: Isle of Wight Academy Meet (Oct 3) · Bill McGough Invitational (Sep 14)
  6. 6 Paisley Enos · Norfolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  7. 7 Ella Stufflebeem · Norfolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  8. 8 Leila Mateo · Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  9. 9 Sadie Martin · Cape Henry Collegiate: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  10. 10 Eliana Carson · Nansemond-Suffolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  11. 11 Scarlett Cleveland · Cape Henry Collegiate: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  12. 12 Aya Musselmani · Norfolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12)
  13. 13 Alex Jones · Nansemond-Suffolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  14. 14 Meg Harrison · The Steward School: TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  15. 15 Brynn Johnson · Cape Henry Collegiate: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  16. 16 Allie Keffer · Norfolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  17. 17 Kate Fine · Norfolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  18. 18 Sara Ankley · Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  19. 19 Teagan Ogden · Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 3 more
  20. 20 Maite Guzman · Norfolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30)
  21. 21 Isabella Nator · Cape Henry Collegiate: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  22. 23 Emma Braendeholm · Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  23. 25 Isabella Manning · Denbigh Baptist Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12) · and 2 more
  24. 26 Sophia Grant · Nansemond-Suffolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  25. 27 Lucy Cleveland · Cape Henry Collegiate: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  26. 28 Rhylee Thomas · Norfolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  27. 29 Sofia Ruffin · The Steward School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  28. 30 Audrey Newton · Teach Beach Breakers: Lukes Legacy Last Chance Invitational (Oct 26) · Isle of Wight Academy Meet (Oct 3) · and 1 more
  29. 31 Karsen Creager · The Steward School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 3 more
  30. 32 Lea Poteran · Norfolk Academy: 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12)
  31. 33 Delaney Petka · Broadwater Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Bill McGough Invitational (Sep 14)
  32. 34 Katherine Conrod · Nansemond-Suffolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  33. 35 Elizabeth Lynch · Catholic: Isle of Wight Academy Meet (Oct 3) · Bill McGough Invitational (Sep 14) · and 1 more
  34. 36 Aviyah Tromburg · Teach Beach Breakers: Bill McGough Invitational (Sep 14)
  35. 37 Noelle Swogger · Greenbrier Christian Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12)
  36. 39 Cece Lentz · The Steward School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 3 more
  37. 40 Sarah Prince · Greenbrier Christian Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12) · and 3 more
  38. 41 Maggie Guild · Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  39. 42 Allie Rivera · StoneBridge School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Walsingham Invitational (Sep 11)
  40. 43 Khloe Pecos · Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 3 more
  41. 44 Presley Letellier · The Steward School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 3 more
  42. 45 Grace Hennessey · Teach Beach Breakers: Bill McGough Invitational (Sep 14)
  43. 46 Ali Dias · Oaktree Academy: Lukes Legacy Last Chance Invitational (Oct 26) · 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12)
  44. 47 Marcella Chee · Nansemond-Suffolk Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 2 more
  45. 48 Molly Hooks · Cape Henry Collegiate: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 1 more
  46. 49 Julia Ostrom · Teach Beach Breakers: Lukes Legacy Last Chance Invitational (Oct 26)
  47. 52 Cassidee Boyles · Atlantic Shores Christian School: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · Isle of Wight Academy Meet (Oct 3)
  48. 54 Olivia Walrond · StoneBridge School: Walsingham Invitational (Sep 11)
  49. 56 LaNyah Franklin · Gateway Christian Academy: Isle of Wight Academy Meet (Oct 3)
  50. 57 Bella Barriault · Greenbrier Christian Academy: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12) · and 2 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 50 of 62 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Rachel PrinceGreenbrier Christian Academy · JRFinish 20:26.120:26.119:26.5103.2
2Jane EarpNorfolk Academy · SOFinish 21:09.621:09.620:07.989.4
3Rylee HerumTeach Beach Breakers · 7Finish 21:38.921:38.920:35.880.1
4Brynn BarleyCape Henry Collegiate · SOFinish 21:40.721:40.720:37.579.6
5Scarlett BauerTeach Beach Breakers · 8Finish 21:53.521:53.520:49.775.5
6Paisley EnosNorfolk Academy · FRFinish 22:22.122:22.121:16.966.4
7Ella StufflebeemNorfolk Academy · JRFinish 22:32.422:32.421:26.763.2
8Leila MateoCatholic · JRFinish 22:35.922:35.921:30.062.1
9Sadie MartinCape Henry Collegiate · SRFinish 22:52.322:52.321:45.656.8
10Eliana CarsonNansemond-Suffolk Academy · JRFinish 23:05.823:05.821:58.552.6
11Scarlett ClevelandCape Henry Collegiate · 8Finish 23:13.823:13.822:06.150.0
12Aya MusselmaniNorfolk Academy · SRFinish 23:17.923:17.922:10.048.7
13Alex JonesNansemond-Suffolk Academy · SOFinish 23:25.323:25.322:17.046.4
14Meg HarrisonThe Steward School · SRFinish 23:29.723:29.722:21.245.0
15Brynn JohnsonCape Henry Collegiate · 8Finish 23:50.323:50.322:40.838.5
16Allie KefferNorfolk Academy · JRFinish 23:51.823:51.822:42.238.0
17Kate FineNorfolk Academy · SOFinish 23:56.423:56.422:46.636.5
18Sara AnkleyCatholic · JRFinish 24:00.924:00.922:50.935.1
19Teagan OgdenCatholic · FRFinish 24:32.924:32.923:21.424.9
20Maite GuzmanNorfolk Academy · SOFinish 24:38.024:38.023:26.223.3
21Isabella NatorCape Henry Collegiate · FRFinish 24:53.524:53.523:41.018.4
22Sophia StavridesCatholic · SOFinish 25:12.425:12.423:58.912.4
23Emma BraendeholmCatholic · JRFinish 25:14.725:14.724:01.111.7
24Sallee CarboneCape Henry Collegiate · SOFinish 25:22.925:22.924:08.99.1
25Isabella ManningDenbigh Baptist Christian School · JRFinish 25:55.825:55.824:40.2—
26Sophia GrantNansemond-Suffolk Academy · JRFinish 26:05.426:05.424:49.4—
27Lucy ClevelandCape Henry Collegiate · 8Finish 26:11.026:11.024:54.7—
28Rhylee ThomasNorfolk Academy · FRFinish 26:15.626:15.624:59.1—
29Sofia RuffinThe Steward School · FRFinish 26:21.926:21.925:05.1—
30Audrey NewtonTeach Beach Breakers · FRFinish 26:25.626:25.625:08.6—
31Karsen CreagerThe Steward School · SOFinish 26:26.626:26.625:09.5—
32Lea PoteranNorfolk Academy · SOFinish 26:30.026:30.025:12.8—
33Delaney PetkaBroadwater Academy · SRFinish 26:41.826:41.825:24.0—
34Katherine ConrodNansemond-Suffolk Academy · SRFinish 26:56.426:56.425:37.9—
35Elizabeth LynchCatholic · JRFinish 27:22.327:22.326:02.5—
36Aviyah TromburgTeach Beach Breakers · 8Finish 27:26.927:26.926:06.9—
37Noelle SwoggerGreenbrier Christian Academy · SRFinish 27:31.727:31.726:11.5—
38Ana LiberatoreCatholic · JRFinish 27:33.827:33.826:13.5—
39Cece LentzThe Steward School · FRFinish 27:35.727:35.726:15.3—
40Sarah PrinceGreenbrier Christian Academy · FRFinish 27:49.627:49.626:28.5—
41Maggie GuildCatholic · JRFinish 27:50.627:50.626:29.4—
42Allie RiveraStoneBridge School · JRFinish 27:52.527:52.526:31.3—
43Khloe PecosCatholic · SOFinish 27:58.327:58.326:36.8—
44Presley LetellierThe Steward School · FRFinish 28:22.828:22.827:00.1—
45Grace HennesseyTeach Beach Breakers · JRFinish 28:26.428:26.427:03.5—
46Ali DiasOaktree Academy · SOFinish 28:40.328:40.327:16.7—
47Marcella CheeNansemond-Suffolk Academy · FRFinish 29:06.629:06.627:41.8—
48Molly HooksCape Henry Collegiate · SRFinish 29:14.529:14.527:49.3—
49Julia OstromTeach Beach Breakers · JRFinish 29:30.229:30.228:04.2—
50Kate KiggansCatholic · SOFinish 29:33.329:33.328:07.2—
Show all 62 results (12 more)Showing all 62 results · hide rows 51–62
Girls results, rows 51 to 62 of 62
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
51Sarah LeBlancStoneBridge School · JRFinish 30:34.830:34.829:05.7—
52Cassidee BoylesAtlantic Shores Christian School · FRFinish 32:12.932:12.930:39.0—
53Lea DiasOaktree Academy · 6Finish 32:21.432:21.430:47.1—
54Olivia WalrondStoneBridge School · JRFinish 32:33.032:33.030:58.1—
55Curling AnnaliseOaktree Academy · 6Finish 33:03.733:03.731:27.3—
56LaNyah FranklinGateway Christian Academy · SRFinish 33:24.433:24.431:47.0—
57Bella BarriaultGreenbrier Christian Academy · SOFinish 33:43.633:43.632:05.3—
58Emma HudginsGreenbrier Christian Academy · JRFinish 34:14.034:14.032:34.2—
59Anna TerrayAtlantic Shores Christian School · SOFinish 35:00.535:00.533:18.5—
60Anela ShawAtlantic Shores Christian School · SOFinish 35:00.635:00.633:18.6—
61Addalyn MideyOaktree Academy · 7Finish 35:15.635:15.633:32.8—
62Samirah SmithGateway Christian Academy · SOFinish 39:04.839:04.837:10.9—

GIRLS · JV · 5,000 M

Boys' & Girls' 5000 Meters (JV) Girls Girls

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D

45 of 45 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 +73.6 s course and conditions +53.3 s in-season fitness +20.4 sCourse constant 522.17 (522)Race constant 526.62 (527)

Unavailable used anchors± 21.2 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.063Modeled distance 5,000 m

Girls results, places shown 1 to 45 of 45 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Brooke BirckholtzGreenbrier Christian Academy · 7Finish 23:53.223:53.222:35.940.1
2Carmen RiveraCape Henry Collegiate · 8Finish 24:13.424:13.422:55.033.7
3Mahi KapoorCape Henry Collegiate · 8Finish 24:54.124:54.123:33.520.9
4Lucy BooneNorfolk Collegiate · 7Finish 25:31.625:31.624:09.09.1
5Carissa SmithGreenbrier Christian Academy · FRFinish 25:38.525:38.524:15.56.9
6Payton ChambersGreenbrier Christian Academy · 6Finish 26:00.526:00.524:36.30.0
7Anabel KassubaGreenbrier Christian Academy · 6Finish 26:03.326:03.324:38.9—
8Lila WareNorfolk Academy · JRFinish 27:02.727:02.725:35.1—
9Gillian VanGorderBroadwater Academy · 8Finish 27:38.427:38.426:08.9—
10Olivia ThomasNorfolk Academy · 8Finish 27:54.427:54.426:24.0—
11Clara GustafsonCatholic · SOFinish 27:57.927:57.926:27.4—
12Harper YoungNorfolk Academy · FRFinish 28:13.628:13.626:42.2—
13Charlotte PomeroyCatholic · FRFinish 28:58.628:58.627:24.8—
14Keilani HealeyCatholic · FRFinish 29:38.729:38.728:02.7—
15Ella HuberIsle of Wight Academy · 7Finish 29:42.429:42.428:06.2—
16Adalia PalmaGreenbrier Christian Academy · 8Finish 30:34.830:34.828:55.8—
17Sophia BuckleyGreenbrier Christian Academy · SOFinish 30:34.930:34.928:55.9—
18Olivia CliftonCatholic · JRFinish 30:42.930:42.929:03.5—
19Juliana MorrisBroadwater Academy · FRFinish 31:00.031:00.029:19.6—
20Leah JohnsonCatholic · SOFinish 31:06.831:06.829:26.1—
21Caroline RegnerNorfolk Academy · FRFinish 31:11.131:11.129:30.1—
22Evangeline ManningDenbigh Baptist Christian School · 8Finish 31:51.631:51.630:08.4—
23Charlotte BristowGreenbrier Christian Academy · 6Finish 32:01.032:01.030:17.3—
24Elliana VitolloGreenbrier Christian Academy · FRFinish 32:01.632:01.630:17.9—
25Vivian CastelowGreenbrier Christian Academy · 8Finish 32:04.432:04.430:20.6—
26Harper MerrellCatholic · JRFinish 32:12.632:12.630:28.3—
27Kate McCloskeyCatholic · JRFinish 32:28.332:28.330:43.2—
28Beatrix ClarkNorfolk Academy · FRFinish 32:50.632:50.631:04.3—
29Emily WongNorfolk Academy · FRFinish 33:01.533:01.531:14.6—
30Blinda WilsonCatholic · FRFinish 34:39.434:39.432:47.2—
31Jessica HowesIsle of Wight Academy · 7Finish 34:43.734:43.732:51.3—
32Peyson ParkerNorfolk Academy · 8Finish 35:17.835:17.833:23.5—
33Angelina VitugTeach Beach Breakers · SOFinish 35:27.135:27.133:32.3—
34Emily DanielsenTeach Beach Breakers · 8Finish 35:28.735:28.733:33.8—
35Isabella HaneyNorfolk Academy · 8Finish 35:59.135:59.134:02.6—
36Ellie ColeNorfolk Academy · 7Finish 36:29.836:29.834:31.6—
37Evelyn BurdickGreenbrier Christian Academy · 6Finish 37:32.337:32.335:30.8—
38Isabel RaderBroadwater Academy · 6Finish 37:32.637:32.635:31.0—
39Winter FordBroadwater Academy · 5Finish 38:08.738:08.736:05.2—
40Tannya WilsonNorfolk Collegiate · 7Finish 38:55.338:55.336:49.3—
41Se'Maiya JamisonCatholic · SOFinish 39:52.639:52.637:43.5—
42Alana StevensonGreenbrier Christian Academy · SOFinish 39:59.339:59.337:49.8—
43Annabelle PluimDenbigh Baptist Christian School · FRFinish 40:36.540:36.538:25.0—
44Julia PhilputNorfolk Collegiate · 6Finish 41:00.841:00.838:48.0—
45Aveleen McGarveyBroadwater Academy · 6Finish 42:39.942:39.940:21.8—

Greenbrier Christian XC Invite, Sep 19, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.