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Oct 26, 2024 · Newport News, VA

lukes legacy last chance invitational 2024

Newport News Park · Historical 2024 results

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Checked against TullyRunners at 9 held-out meets, 2024's ratings sit a median of 1.7 points (boys) and 4.4 points (girls) from TullyRunners'.

Boys results are not shown: no boy at this meet rated above 170 (top 158.7), so its boys races are lower tier. They stay in the fit.

2 of 4 archived races included · Every result row is listed; the first 50 of each race show by default.

Ratings are on the day: adjusted times remove course and conditions and half of the in-season fitness part, so an early-season run keeps half of its credit for low fitness. How on-the-day ratings work

AN = anchor runner (compared to set its race’s adjustment). The race title is as the results print it. Grade describes how precisely the race was adjusted, not a runner’s ability. Results include runners of every affiliation. The adjustment SE is not a prediction interval for a runner’s next race. Each runner’s SE is the header’s 20:00 value scaled to their adjusted time. A row the fit did not rate is still rated from its race’s adjustment: LN marks one linked to an athlete by name, NM one not matched to an athlete record; a row that stays unrated shows “Unavailable”, never zero. JV races are not calculated on their own. Each uses its meet’s varsity adjustment plus a JV adjustment.

GIRLS · VARSITY · 5,000 M

Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run

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C

25 of 25 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −36.2 s course and conditions −10.9 s in-season fitness −25.2 sCourse constant 490.54 (491)Race constant 484.37 (484)

15 used anchors± 7.2 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.063Modeled distance 5,000 m

Adjusted from 15 anchor runners

Anchor runners ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing their times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment. The most unusual tenth at each end is left out of the average, so one great or bad day can’t move it much. Returning runners who ran only this race this season can also help a little; they are not listed or counted here. Listed here: all 15, in place order, each with up to two of their most recent other races; every anchor is marked AN in the results.

  1. 1 Lydia Shields · Maggie Walker Gov. School: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  2. 2 Alyssa Pongracz · Peninsula Catholic: VISAA Cross Country State Championships (Nov 7) · TCIS XC Championships (Oct 30) · and 4 more
  3. 3 Lillian Davies · Maggie Walker Gov. School: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  4. 4 Callie Kennedy · Maggie Walker Gov. School: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 3B XC Championships (Nov 6) · and 2 more
  5. 5 Evelyn Hayter · Maggie Walker Gov. School: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 1 more
  6. 6 Alina Laraway · Maggie Walker Gov. School: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 3B XC Championships (Nov 6) · and 3 more
  7. 7 Abigail Martin · Maggie Walker Gov. School: VHSL Region 3B XC Championships (Nov 6) · The VA XC Showcase (Oct 19) · and 2 more
  8. 8 Ada Rolfes · Maggie Walker Gov. School: VHSL Class 3 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · VHSL Region 3B XC Championships (Nov 6) · and 2 more
  9. 9 Lana Hutson · Maggie Walker Gov. School: VHSL Region 3B XC Championships (Nov 6)
  10. 10 Logan Kauffman · Menchville: VHSL Class 5 State XC Meet (Nov 16) · 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12)
  11. 13 Jalesa Edwards · Manor: VHSL 4 Region A Championship (Nov 6) · 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
  12. 14 Audrey Newton · Teach Beach Breakers: Isle of Wight Academy Meet (Oct 3) · Greenbrier Christian XC Invite (Sep 19) · and 1 more
  13. 16 Ali Dias · Oaktree Academy: 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12) · Greenbrier Christian XC Invite (Sep 19)
  14. 20 Julia Ostrom · Teach Beach Breakers: Greenbrier Christian XC Invite (Sep 19)
  15. 25 Ny'omi Carroll · I.C. Norcom: VHSL Region 3A Championships (Nov 7) · 8th Atlantic Coast XC Invitational (Oct 12) · and 1 more
Girls results, places shown 1 to 25 of 25 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Lydia ShieldsMaggie Walker Gov. School · SRFinish 19:12.519:12.519:31.0101.7
2Alyssa PongraczPeninsula Catholic · SRFinish 19:50.919:50.920:10.088.7
3Lillian DaviesMaggie Walker Gov. School · JRFinish 20:09.920:09.920:29.382.3
4Callie KennedyMaggie Walker Gov. School · SRFinish 20:18.320:18.320:37.879.4
5Evelyn HayterMaggie Walker Gov. School · JRFinish 20:33.820:33.820:53.574.2
6Alina LarawayMaggie Walker Gov. School · JRFinish 21:09.321:09.321:29.662.2
7Abigail MartinMaggie Walker Gov. School · JRFinish 21:10.521:10.521:30.961.8
8Ada RolfesMaggie Walker Gov. School · FRFinish 21:23.721:23.721:44.257.3
9Lana HutsonMaggie Walker Gov. School · SOFinish 21:26.721:26.721:47.356.3
10Logan KauffmanMenchville · JRFinish 21:53.321:53.322:14.447.3
11Charlotte OristianMaggie Walker Gov. School · FRFinish 22:10.222:10.222:31.541.6
12Grace ManaderoMenchville · JRFinish 23:41.723:41.724:04.510.6
13Jalesa EdwardsManor · SRFinish 23:59.223:59.224:22.24.7
14Audrey NewtonTeach Beach Breakers · FRFinish 24:08.424:08.424:31.61.5
15Nyssiah RhodesBethel · SRFinish 24:44.324:44.325:08.1—
16Ali DiasOaktree Academy · SOFinish 24:55.524:55.525:19.4—
17Charley DaughertyMenchville · JRFinish 25:43.525:43.526:08.2—
18Isabella ShivelyMaggie Walker Gov. School · FRFinish 25:55.125:55.126:20.1—
19Sarah ShepherdMaggie Walker Gov. School · SOFinish 26:59.026:59.027:25.0—
20Julia OstromTeach Beach Breakers · JRFinish 27:06.327:06.327:32.4—
21Trinity FaberMaggie Walker Gov. School · FRFinish 27:08.427:08.427:34.4—
22Leilani PorterMenchville · JRFinish 27:47.127:47.128:13.8—
23Arianna Del ValleMenchville · JRFinish 28:41.428:41.429:08.9—
24Emma GrassmanMenchville · SRFinish 29:34.529:34.530:03.0—
25Ny'omi CarrollI.C. Norcom · SOFinish 29:54.329:54.330:23.0—

GIRLS · JV · 5,000 M

Junior Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run

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D

11 of 11 rows rated

How this race was adjusted

Race effect at 20:00 −29.5 s course and conditions −4.2 s in-season fitness −25.4 sCourse constant 492.95 (493)Race constant 486.16 (486)

Unavailable used anchors± 21.0 s adjustment SE at 20:00Statistical Rating K 492.063Modeled distance 5,000 m

Girls results, places shown 1 to 11 of 11 result rows
PlaceRunner / school · gradeFinish timeAdjustedStatistical Rating
1Rylee HerumTeach Beach Breakers · 7Finish 20:29.320:29.320:41.978.1
2Scarlett BauerTeach Beach Breakers · 8Finish 20:40.520:40.520:53.274.3
3Aviyah TromburgTeach Beach Breakers · 8Finish 24:35.324:35.324:50.5—
4Lea DiasOaktree Academy · 6Finish 26:59.626:59.627:16.2—
5Kelis Major-SampsonBethel · SOFinish 28:28.628:28.628:46.2—
6Curling AnnaliseOaktree Academy · 6Finish 28:43.928:43.929:01.6—
7Leilani WrightBethel · FRFinish 29:51.329:51.330:09.8—
8Sienna GoodBethel · FRFinish 29:57.429:57.430:15.8—
9Jessica FrederickBethel · SOFinish 31:52.931:52.932:12.5—
10Emily DanielsenTeach Beach Breakers · 8Finish 33:04.433:04.433:24.8—
11Angelina VitugTeach Beach Breakers · SOFinish 33:14.933:14.933:35.4—

lukes legacy last chance invitational 2024, Oct 26, 2024

Statistical Rating. Higher is faster: points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, so 1 point = 3 s; shown to 0.1 point, with a dash below 0. K is set for each sex and season so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale at meets both systems rated.Adjusted time. The finish time with the race adjustment taken out, then moved by half of a typical runner’s fitness gain or shortfall for its date, counted from late September. Lower is faster; it puts every course on one yardstick and is not a predicted time.Place. Finish place as recorded in the source results; a row without one shows its status instead.Runner / school · grade. The runner, with school and school grade. Results list every runner, not only those eligible for the leaderboards.Finish time. The finish time in the source results, before any adjustment.Used anchors. Runners here with at least two races this season, whose times, compared with their other races, set this race’s adjustment; a race needs at least 8 to be rated. From 2023, returning runners with one race this season also help but are not counted here.Anchor runner. AN marks an anchor runner, who ran at least one other varsity race we cover this season. Comparing anchors’ times here with their other races sets this race’s adjustment, leaving out the most unusual tenth at each end.Adjustment SE at 20:00. How far this race’s adjustment is typically off, for a 20:00 run; the race’s grade is based on it. It is not a range for a runner’s next race, and it scales with each runner’s time: smaller for faster runners, larger for slower ones.Race effect at 20:00. How much slower (+) or faster (−) this race ran than a typical race that season, in seconds for a 20:00 run. Ratings take out its course-and-conditions part and half of its in-season fitness part, counted from late September.Course and conditions at 20:00. The race effect with the shared in-season fitness curve taken out: our estimate of what the course and the day did. It is not a clean split, because early-season heat and fitness both follow the calendar.In-season fitness at 20:00. The part of the race effect put down to runners being less fit (+) or fitter (−) than on the season’s average race day, an estimate that also picks up anything tied to the date, such as early-season heat. Ratings keep half of it, counted from late September, so early-season runs keep half of their credit for low fitness.Course constant. The course and the day’s conditions as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, using a K fitted to all of the season’s matched meets; whole points in parentheses. It is not the number behind this race’s ratings: that is the race constant.Rows rated. Result rows with an adjusted time, including rows rated only from their race’s adjustment (LN: linked to an athlete by name; NM: not matched to an athlete record). Unrated rows show ratings as unavailable, never zero.Race constant. The race as one number on TullyRunners’ points scale, from its finishers’ median adjustment; whole points in parentheses. The constant minus finish seconds ÷ 3 equals a shown rating only at that median adjustment, because the adjustment is a share of the time.Statistical Rating K. The season’s scale number for this sex in points = K − adjusted seconds ÷ 3, set so that our ratings sit on TullyRunners’ scale. It only sets where the scale sits and never enters the model.Modeled distance. The distance in the race title, unless the course was verified at another distance. Finish times are never rescaled: the race effect absorbs a course’s length along with its terrain.