NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS

VHSL Class 5 State Championship 2026

VHSL Class 5 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Leesburg. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.

PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL

Calculated Oct 30.

A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.

COVERAGE

Who is rated, and from what.

Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work

Class 5 State 2026 qualifying teams, individual qualifiers, rated runners and ranked teams, by sex
Coverage	Boys	Girls
Qualifying teams	12	12
Individual qualifiers	20	20
Rated runners in the field	104	101
Rated district or regional races (one · two or more)	10479 · 25	10173 · 28
Teams ranked (five or more rated)	12 of 12	12 of 12
Teams unranked	0	0
Statistical Rating K (2026 scale)	487.341	489.861

Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v16, as of 2026-10-30), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 5A, Region 5B, Region 5C and Region 5D championships (Oct 24, Oct 27 and Oct 28) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 25 with two or more, 79 with one, 0 with none; girls: 28 with two or more, 73 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 33 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.

TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD

Girls · Class 5 State 2026 projection

Scoring order in timing-sheet notation: the first five places add up to the score; the sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Lower score is better

Rank

Team

Score

Scoring order

Runners by basis

Glen Allen

1-2-17-18-23 (27)(49)

2026: 7

7 runners

Glen Allen: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
1	Avery Carlson	124.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
2	Emma Stein	123.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
17	Makenna Pardue	89.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
18	Finley Beike	88.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
23	Adalyn Altman	83.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
(27)	Katherine Arjona	80.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
(49)	Izzy Stefanova	60.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27

Midlothian

3-5-16-19-30 (42)

2026: 6

6 runners

Midlothian: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
3	Briella Ansell	122.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
5	Kate Jaeger	121.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
16	Gwendolyn Gardner	90.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
19	Riley Harwood	86.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
30	Charlotte Bazemore	79.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27
(42)	Camila Flakas	67.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27

Kellam

10-12-24-25-28 (29)(40)

2026: 7

7 runners

Kellam: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
10	Kate Spain	100.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
12	Scarlett Johnson	99.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
24	Aliyah Acosta	83.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
25	Kamryn Smith	82.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
28	Eva Jackson	80.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
(29)	Mia Spain	80.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
(40)	Brooke Arboneaux	68.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24

Briar Woods

4-9-11-31-44 (65)(69)

2026: 7

7 runners

Briar Woods: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
4	Chiara LoSchiavo	121.6	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
9	Megan Greenlund	101.7	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
11	Kelsie Humbert	100.2	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Potomac District Championship, Oct 21 · also Region 5D XC Championship
31	Evelyn Tynan	78.0	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
44	Quinnlyn Wright	65.7	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
(65)	Geneve Nathan	41.1	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Potomac District Championship, Oct 21 · also Region 5D XC Championship
(69)	Siya Sharma	34.8	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Potomac District Championship, Oct 21 · also Region 5D XC Championship

Albemarle

117

6-14-15-36-46 (57)(75)

2026: 7

7 runners

Albemarle: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
6	Pia Peterson	114.8	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Jefferson District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 5C XC Championships
14	Carys Murray	95.0	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
15	McKinley Coleman	94.9	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
36	Elise Guillard	72.2	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
46	Abigail Wilkinson	62.1	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
(57)	Nora Mauney	52.6	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Jefferson District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 5C XC Championships
(75)	Elyse Scanlon	12.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 5C XC Championships, Oct 27

Princess Anne

150

8-32-35-37-38 (73)(79)

2026: 7

7 runners

Princess Anne: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
8	Penelope Channell	105.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
32	Louisa Channell	75.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
35	Makayla Spears	72.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
37	Shiloh Kness	70.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
38	Rosie Perez	69.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
(73)	Charlotte Forehand	17.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
(79)	Emily Winstead	—	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24

Granby

173

7-20-26-54-66 (76)(81)

2026: 7

7 runners

Granby: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
7	Ella Pringle	111.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
20	Elizabeth Derby	85.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
26	Camryn Coleman	81.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
54	Anna Wernly	55.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
66	Eleanor Bayer	40.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
(76)	Ella Patton	9.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
(81)	Norah Sanou	—	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28

Ocean Lakes

218

21-45-47-52-53 (59)(62)

2026: 7

7 runners

Ocean Lakes: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
21	Rebekah Graham	85.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
45	Zoey Pham	65.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
47	Scarlett Smith	61.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
52	Madilynn Mokrzycki	55.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
53	Jordyn Moore	55.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
(59)	Elizabeth Gong	50.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24
(62)	Cameran Culley	46.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL CLASS 5A REGIONAL CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP 2026, Oct 24

Potomac Falls

227

34-39-43-55-56 (63)(67)

2026: 7

7 runners

Potomac Falls: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
34	Jada Stone	72.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28
39	Maria Nizheberskaya	68.6	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
43	Evie McCombs	65.8	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Potomac District Championship, Oct 21 · also Region 5D XC Championship
55	Yasemin Tasdogan	54.0	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
56	Eva Soucy	53.6	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
(63)	Eliza Anderson	44.3	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
(67)	Annabelle Walther	39.5	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Potomac District Championship, Oct 21 · also Region 5D XC Championship

Lightridge

229

22-48-50-51-58 (61)(64)

2026: 7

7 runners

Lightridge: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
22	Caroline Segersten	84.2	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
48	Kaia Hall	60.3	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
50	Claire Pugh	58.9	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
51	Sophia Abdo	57.0	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Potomac District Championship, Oct 21 · also Region 5D XC Championship
58	Amaya Juvvadi	51.6	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
(61)	Elle Bellanca	47.3	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Region 5D XC Championship, Oct 28 · also Potomac District Championship
(64)	Aadya Ravva	43.7	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Potomac District Championship, Oct 21 · also Region 5D XC Championship

Norview

275

13-41-70-71-80

2026: 5

5 runners

Norview: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
13	Treasure McClain	96.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
41	Melanie Gallardo-Rensendiz	68.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
70	Aaliyah Cobia	34.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
71	Genesis Rios	29.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
80	Hannah Bordegard	—	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28

Maury

307

33-60-68-72-74 (77)(78)

2026: 7

7 runners

Maury: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
33	Layla Petersen	75.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
60	Lylah Buchinger	48.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
68	Madeleine Hooper	36.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
72	Kaelyn Grochowski	27.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
74	Sofia Hallberg	13.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
(77)	Everleigh Epps	6.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28
(78)	Elizabeth Traylor	5.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Class 5 Region B Cross Country Championship, Oct 28

A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.

TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION

Girls · top 100 rated runners

Girls top rated runners, 1 to 25
Order	Runner / team	Statistical Rating	Rating basis	Team status
01	Avery CarlsonGlen Allen	124.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
02	Emma SteinGlen Allen	123.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
03	Briella AnsellMidlothian	122.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
04	Chiara LoSchiavoBriar Woods	121.6	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
05	Kate JaegerMidlothian	121.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
06	Pia PetersonAlbemarle	114.8	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
07	Ella PringleGranby	111.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
08	Dahae MeseroleDeep Run	108.7	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
09	Penelope ChannellPrincess Anne	105.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
10	Megan GreenlundBriar Woods	101.7	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
11	Alexis RiceHickory	101.3	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
12	Kate SpainKellam	100.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
13	Kelsie HumbertBriar Woods	100.2	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
14	Scarlett JohnsonKellam	99.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
15	Treasure McClainNorview	96.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
16	Danielle MaynorCox	96.5	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
17	Alanna GagenDouglas Freeman	95.9	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
18	Charlotte WilkersonFirst Colonial	95.3	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
19	Carys MurrayAlbemarle	95.0	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
20	McKinley ColemanAlbemarle	94.9	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
21	Elena AtchisonDouglas Freeman	94.0	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
22	Sincere BryantWarwick	92.3	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
23	Gwendolyn GardnerMidlothian	90.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
24	Makenna PardueGlen Allen	89.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
25	Loren GrossmanMills Godwin	88.9	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)

Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer

Girls top rated runners, 26 to 100
Order	Runner / team	Statistical Rating	Rating basis	Team status
26	Finley BeikeGlen Allen	88.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
27	Jules HandGreat Bridge	87.5	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
28	Riley HarwoodMidlothian	86.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
29	Elizabeth DerbyGranby	85.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
30	Rebekah GrahamOcean Lakes	85.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
31	Grace SchootDeep Run	85.1	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
32	Caroline SegerstenLightridge	84.2	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
33	Jillian PerryWarwick	83.8	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
34	Adalyn AltmanGlen Allen	83.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
35	Aliyah AcostaKellam	83.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
36	Kamryn SmithKellam	82.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
37	Camryn ColemanGranby	81.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
38	Katherine ArjonaGlen Allen	80.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
39	Eva JacksonKellam	80.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
40	Mia SpainKellam	80.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
41	Charlotte BazemoreMidlothian	79.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
42	Madeline HowellRiverbend	78.3	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
43	Evelyn TynanBriar Woods	78.0	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
44	Louisa ChannellPrincess Anne	75.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
45	Layla PetersenMaury	75.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
46	Ashleigh MenzenwerthRiverbend	73.7	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
47	Jada StonePotomac Falls	72.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
48	Makayla SpearsPrincess Anne	72.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
49	Elise GuillardAlbemarle	72.2	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
50	Shiloh KnessPrincess Anne	70.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
51	Sydney FoleyRiverside	70.1	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
52	Rosie PerezPrincess Anne	69.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
53	Maria NizheberskayaPotomac Falls	68.6	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
54	Brooke ArboneauxKellam	68.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
55	Brooke LangaGreat Bridge	68.4	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
56	Melanie Gallardo-RensendizNorview	68.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
57	Camila FlakasMidlothian	67.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
58	Evie McCombsPotomac Falls	65.8	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
59	Quinnlyn WrightBriar Woods	65.7	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
60	Zoey PhamOcean Lakes	65.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
61	Abigail WilkinsonAlbemarle	62.1	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
62	Scarlett SmithOcean Lakes	61.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
63	Kaia HallLightridge	60.3	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
64	Izzy StefanovaGlen Allen	60.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
65	Claire PughLightridge	58.9	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
66	Sophia AbdoLightridge	57.0	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
67	Chiara ParillaKings Fork	56.6	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
68	Madilynn MokrzyckiOcean Lakes	55.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
69	Jordyn MooreOcean Lakes	55.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
70	Anna WernlyGranby	55.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
71	Yasemin TasdoganPotomac Falls	54.0	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
72	Eva SoucyPotomac Falls	53.6	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
73	Nora MauneyAlbemarle	52.6	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
74	Amaya JuvvadiLightridge	51.6	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
75	Alexis HylandFreedom (South Riding)	51.6	2026 · 2 meets	Individual qualifier (no team)
76	Elizabeth GongOcean Lakes	50.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
77	Lylah BuchingerMaury	48.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
78	Elle BellancaLightridge	47.3	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
79	Cameran CulleyOcean Lakes	46.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
80	Reagan PerrottaStone Bridge	46.5	2026 · 2 meets	Individual qualifier (no team)
81	Eliza AndersonPotomac Falls	44.3	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
82	Aadya RavvaLightridge	43.7	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
83	Chloe LongWarwick	43.7	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
84	Geneve NathanBriar Woods	41.1	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
85	Eleanor BayerGranby	40.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
86	Annabelle WaltherPotomac Falls	39.5	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
87	Madeleine HooperMaury	36.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
88	Siya SharmaBriar Woods	34.8	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
89	Aaliyah CobiaNorview	34.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
90	Genesis RiosNorview	29.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
91	Kaelyn GrochowskiMaury	27.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
92	Britain HowellKecoughtan	24.7	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
93	Charlotte ForehandPrincess Anne	17.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
94	Sofia HallbergMaury	13.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
95	Elyse ScanlonAlbemarle	12.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
96	Ella PattonGranby	9.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
97	Everleigh EppsMaury	6.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
98	Elizabeth TraylorMaury	5.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
99	Emily WinsteadPrincess Anne	—	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
100	Hannah BordegardNorview	—	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven

Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.

UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS

0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners

Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.

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What this projection is not.

A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 5 State course time.
No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.