NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
VHSL Class 5 State Championship 2026
VHSL Class 5 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Leesburg. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 30.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying teams | 12 | 12 |
| Individual qualifiers | 20 | 20 |
| Rated runners in the field | 104 | 101 |
| Rated district or regional races (one · two or more) | 10479 · 25 | 10173 · 28 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 12 of 12 | 12 of 12 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 487.341 | 489.861 |
Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v16, as of 2026-10-30), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 5A, Region 5B, Region 5C and Region 5D championships (Oct 24, Oct 27 and Oct 28) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 25 with two or more, 79 with one, 0 with none; girls: 28 with two or more, 73 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 33 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Boys · Class 5 State 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Albemarle | 38 | 2-7-8-10-11 (14)(20) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Albemarle
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | Deep Run | 84 | 3-5-16-17-43 (50)(66) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Deep Run
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | Ocean Lakes | 103 | 9-19-22-26-27 (40)(44) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Ocean Lakes
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Kellam | 113 | 6-21-24-25-37 (48)(51) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Kellam
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | Midlothian | 144 | 1-13-23-52-55 (57)(60) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Midlothian
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | Riverbend | 150 | 12-30-33-34-41 (45)(58) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Riverbend
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 07 | Freedom (South Riding) | 169 | 4-31-38-47-49 (53)(69) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Freedom (South Riding)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 08 | Briar Woods | 218 | 15-42-46-54-61 (71)(73) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Briar Woods
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 09 | Maury | 249 | 29-36-59-62-63 (65)(76) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Maury
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Granby | 275 | 18-32-70-77-78 (80)(84) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Granby
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Norview | 288 | 28-35-72-74-79 (81)(83) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Norview
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Kempsville | 294 | 39-56-64-67-68 (75)(82) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Kempsville
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Boys · top 100 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Grayson SpillerMidlothian | 178.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Luke KronebuschAlbemarle | 176.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Raymond TrageserDeep Run | 174.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Ebenezer TemesgenFreedom (South Riding) | 170.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Samuel KeeferDeep Run | 169.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Finnegan MannyKellam | 169.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Bryce WrightAlbemarle | 168.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Eli DuncanAlbemarle | 168.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Fenton MillionOcean Lakes | 167.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Jack MackeyAlbemarle | 167.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Benjamin HenleyAlbemarle | 165.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 12 | Colby BonannoClover Hill | 164.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 13 | Ethan HackingRiverbend | 162.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Zach SpencerMidlothian | 162.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Lewis McMillanGlen Allen | 161.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 16 | Jackson Pryor-KolsterGlen Allen | 160.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 17 | Brody LawsonAlbemarle | 159.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Easton FurrMassaponax | 158.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 19 | Ishaan ShethBriar Woods | 158.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Mitchell ElwellFranklin County | 158.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 21 | Luca CarlomagnoDeep Run | 157.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Jackson KepplerDeep Run | 156.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Davin PayneGranby | 156.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Levi PearsonOcean Lakes | 156.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Luke GoffAlbemarle | 155.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Stryker BalkKellam | 155.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Brady CurullaOcean Lakes | 155.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Kai WotringMidlothian | 154.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Emmett RaeRiverside | 153.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 30 | Levi WongStone Bridge | 153.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 31 | Grayson MannyKellam | 153.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Davis NewlinJames River (Midlothian) | 153.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 33 | William JacksonKellam | 153.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Jack IngramOcean Lakes | 152.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Joshua LeidelOcean Lakes | 152.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Ethan FassSalem (Virginia Beach) | 152.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 37 | Cayden ColemanNorview | 152.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Michael NigburPrincess Anne | 152.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 39 | Levi HighfillSalem (Virginia Beach) | 151.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 40 | Liam WinkelMaury | 151.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Ryan ArnoldRiverbend | 151.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Clay ReeceBethel | 151.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 43 | Charlie DixonFreedom (South Riding) | 150.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Timothy SigmundLightridge | 150.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 45 | Gabriel BarrientosStone Bridge | 150.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 46 | Wesley JonesFirst Colonial | 149.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 47 | Melvin GarciaGranby | 149.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Samuel ThompsonRiverbend | 149.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Griffin PesnellRiverbend | 149.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 50 | Deagan WhylesNorview | 149.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Xaul AnteroMaury | 148.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Lucien RouthierKellam | 148.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 53 | Colin GunnoudFreedom (South Riding) | 148.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Kaleo ArrowsmithKempsville | 148.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Trevor HolmesOcean Lakes | 148.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 56 | Peyton EimersRiverbend | 147.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Ramanathan VenkateshBriar Woods | 147.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Maximus HeiseTallwood | 146.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 59 | Nikhil ShahDeep Run | 146.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 60 | Nathen VargheseOcean Lakes | 146.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Aden AvalosRiverbend | 145.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 62 | William BroadfootBriar Woods | 144.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 63 | Tanish LimgalaFreedom (South Riding) | 143.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 64 | Nolan MeadowsKellam | 143.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Ryan RafalkoFreedom (South Riding) | 143.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Grant ReillyDeep Run | 142.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Flynn DruryKellam | 142.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 68 | Noah IniguezMidlothian | 141.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 69 | Jacob VanisonFreedom (South Riding) | 139.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Enzo FranksBriar Woods | 139.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Rahul ThornMidlothian | 138.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Cyrus WilliamsKempsville | 137.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Kingston ClarkWarwick | 136.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 74 | Garrett TambourineMidlothian | 136.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Jay RoguckiRiverbend | 134.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Ben KiefnerMaury | 134.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Kyle SeguraMidlothian | 133.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Titus LogsdonWarwick | 133.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 79 | Curtis Lassiter IIIWoodside | 133.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 80 | Benjamin HarrisBriar Woods | 132.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Soren HinesWarwick | 131.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 82 | Jackson McMurdieMaury | 130.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 83 | Xulian CangaMaury | 129.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Derek BharwaniKempsville | 129.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Luke SadrMaury | 127.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Henry HowardDeep Run | 126.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Joseph VarberoKempsville | 126.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Asher BarryKempsville | 125.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Akash NairFreedom (South Riding) | 122.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 90 | Eliyahu Guillen ChaconGranby | 121.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 91 | George ButlerBriar Woods | 119.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Donte WilliamsNorview | 118.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Zach SicaBriar Woods | 118.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Alixander RiveraNorview | 115.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Richard LeatherburyKempsville | 114.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 96 | Chance BoneyMaury | 111.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Orlando RodriguezGranby | 110.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Eli WhittenGranby | 109.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 99 | Romalies FernandezNorview | 108.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Angel MoralesGranby | 106.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS
0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
- Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 5 State course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.