NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS

VHSL Class 4 State Championship 2026

VHSL Class 4 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Leesburg. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.

PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL

Calculated Oct 30.

A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.

COVERAGE

Who is rated, and from what.

Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work

Class 4 State 2026 qualifying teams, individual qualifiers, rated runners and ranked teams, by sex
Coverage	Boys	Girls
Qualifying teams	12	12
Individual qualifiers	20	20
Rated runners in the field	103	103
Rated district or regional races (one · two or more)	10372 · 31	10377 · 26
Teams ranked (five or more rated)	12 of 12	12 of 12
Teams unranked	0	0
Statistical Rating K (2026 scale)	487.341	489.861

Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v16, as of 2026-10-30), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 4A, Region 4B, Region 4C and Region 4D championships (Oct 27 and Oct 28) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 31 with two or more, 72 with one, 0 with none; girls: 26 with two or more, 77 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 33 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.

TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD

Girls · Class 4 State 2026 projection

Scoring order in timing-sheet notation: the first five places add up to the score; the sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Lower score is better

Rank

Team

Score

Scoring order

Runners by basis

Blacksburg

3-4-5-8-25 (40)

2026: 6

6 runners

Blacksburg: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
3	Ruthie Delapp	127.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
4	Avery Whitson	126.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
5	Lola Olsen	126.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
8	Harper Olsen	118.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
25	Sally Prince	96.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
(40)	Penny Griggs	86.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27

Hanover

7-13-15-20-22 (24)(32)

2026: 7

7 runners

Hanover: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
7	River Smith	120.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
13	Bria Hanville	109.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
15	Callah Steppe	107.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
20	Emma Van Meter	101.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
22	Lydia Miller	97.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
(24)	Alexandra Shoppell	96.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
(32)	Sydney Boucher	92.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27

Charlottesville

100

2-14-18-19-47 (58)(69)

2026: 7

7 runners

Charlottesville: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
2	Juliana Pierce	128.7	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
14	Catherine Crook	109.7	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
18	Phoebe Fischman	105.9	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
19	Liliana Jones	104.9	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
47	Lula Jacobs	80.5	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
(58)	Caris Garcia	70.6	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
(69)	Hazel Semmelhack	62.3	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Jefferson District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4D Championship

Grafton

108

1-9-10-43-45 (52)(62)

2026: 7

7 runners

Grafton: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
1	Macy Dodson	136.5	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
9	Amelia Valenti	115.2	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
10	Jillian Wallen	113.5	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
43	Sophia Fitzer	83.0	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
45	Ashlin Barker	81.6	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
(52)	Abigail Divietro	76.5	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
(62)	Emily Kobulnicky	67.8	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship

Loudoun Valley

116

11-16-27-29-33 (35)(48)

2026: 7

7 runners

Loudoun Valley: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
11	Evelyn O'Rourke	113.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
16	Harper Bartlett	107.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
27	Aaliyah Abdoo	96.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
29	Anna Ruth Lovorn	95.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
33	Lucy Popp	92.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(35)	Zoey Betz	90.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(48)	Ivy Haws	78.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28

John Handley

161

6-21-39-41-54 (70)(77)

2026: 7

7 runners

John Handley: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
6	Ella Seniff	125.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
21	Sage Welpott	97.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
39	Seneca Welpott	87.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
41	Audrey Rinker	86.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
54	Nadia Lopez	75.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
(70)	Jayleh Porter	62.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
(77)	Charlotte Thomsen	45.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27

Atlee

170

12-28-37-38-55 (60)(74)

2026: 7

7 runners

Atlee: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
12	Carissa Ambrose	111.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
28	Reilly Coyne	95.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
37	Sophia Tricoli	89.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
38	Amelia Sobotka	87.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
55	Sofia Henderson	74.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
(60)	Isabella Baldwin	70.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
(74)	Maria Scherbakova	52.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27

Tuscarora (VA)

215

23-30-31-56-75 (78)(79)

2026: 7

7 runners

Tuscarora (VA): the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
23	Christabel Agyeman-Duah	96.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
30	Catherine Moschera	94.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
31	Avery Caskey	94.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
56	Safia Harry	74.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
75	Izabelle Ramirez	49.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(78)	Alaina Cherubin	41.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(79)	Elise Sillman	32.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28

Jamestown

234

36-44-46-51-57 (67)(68)

2026: 7

7 runners

Jamestown: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
36	Erica Foster	90.4	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
44	Nancy Vogel	81.6	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
46	Maggie Pittman	80.6	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
51	Sophie Plaskon	76.5	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
57	Madeline Buckley	71.7	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
(67)	Kathleen Kellogg	64.8	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
(68)	Natalya Austin	62.8	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship

Lafayette

254

17-49-50-65-73 (81)(82)

2026: 7

7 runners

Lafayette: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
17	Catherine Ickes	106.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27
49	Ainslie Emerson	78.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27
50	Sydney Scott	76.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27
65	Caroline McHenry	66.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27
73	Mei Li Chin	53.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27
(81)	Megan Mills	18.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27
(82)	Cora Hunt	12.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27

Monacan

271

26-42-61-66-76 (80)(83)

2026: 7

7 runners

Monacan: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
26	Islah Junkermann	96.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
42	Heidi Bohannon	86.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
61	Samantha Hinds	68.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
66	Erin DeFazio	65.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
76	Amelia Morgan	49.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
(80)	Ashlyn Kearney	31.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
(83)	Chloe Clemmons	—	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27

Dominion

273

34-53-59-63-64 (71)(72)

2026: 7

7 runners

Dominion: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
34	Claire Semler	91.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
53	Caroline Taylor	75.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
59	Allison Florkowski	70.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
63	Eliana Fair	67.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
64	Hannah Yonas	66.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(71)	Jessica Taylor	59.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(72)	Sarah Tuttle	58.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28

A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.

TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION

Girls · top 100 rated runners

Girls top rated runners, 1 to 25
Order	Runner / team	Statistical Rating	Rating basis	Team status
01	Macy DodsonGrafton	136.5	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
02	Juliana PierceCharlottesville	128.7	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
03	Ruthie DelappBlacksburg	127.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
04	Avery WhitsonBlacksburg	126.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
05	Lola OlsenBlacksburg	126.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
06	Ella SeniffJohn Handley	125.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
07	River SmithHanover	120.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
08	Harper OlsenBlacksburg	118.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
09	Fallon FetterolfLoudoun County	115.4	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
10	Amelia ValentiGrafton	115.2	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
11	Jillian WallenGrafton	113.5	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
12	Evelyn O'RourkeLoudoun Valley	113.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
13	Carissa AmbroseAtlee	111.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
14	Bria HanvilleHanover	109.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
15	Catherine CrookCharlottesville	109.7	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
16	Callah SteppeHanover	107.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
17	Harper BartlettLoudoun Valley	107.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
18	Catherine IckesLafayette	106.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
19	Phoebe FischmanCharlottesville	105.9	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
20	Liliana JonesCharlottesville	104.9	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
21	Natalie AdamsMecklenburg County	104.7	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
22	Kennedy CombsMillbrook (VA)	103.2	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
23	Carter VassPatrick Henry (Ashland)	101.3	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
24	Emma Van MeterHanover	101.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
25	Sophia PriceHeritage (Leesburg)	99.3	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)

Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer

Girls top rated runners, 26 to 100
Order	Runner / team	Statistical Rating	Rating basis	Team status
26	Sage WelpottJohn Handley	97.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
27	Lydia MillerHanover	97.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
28	Christabel Agyeman-DuahTuscarora (VA)	96.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
29	Alexandra ShoppellHanover	96.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
30	Sally PrinceBlacksburg	96.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
31	Islah JunkermannMonacan	96.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
32	Aaliyah AbdooLoudoun Valley	96.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
33	Reilly CoyneAtlee	95.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
34	Lillian BeattyMecklenburg County	95.6	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
35	Lily GaddLouisa County	95.5	2026 · 2 meets	Individual qualifier (no team)
36	Anna Ruth LovornLoudoun Valley	95.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
37	Catherine MoscheraTuscarora (VA)	94.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
38	Avery CaskeyTuscarora (VA)	94.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
39	Liliana SweatSpotsylvania	93.7	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
40	Sydney BoucherHanover	92.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
41	Lucy PoppLoudoun Valley	92.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
42	Samantha MadiganJefferson Forest	91.5	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
43	Claire SemlerDominion	91.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
44	Zoey BetzLoudoun Valley	90.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
45	Erica FosterJamestown	90.4	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
46	Sophia TricoliAtlee	89.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
47	Amelia SobotkaAtlee	87.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
48	Seneca WelpottJohn Handley	87.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
49	Mary DayWarhill	87.3	2026 · 2 meets	Individual qualifier (no team)
50	Penny GriggsBlacksburg	86.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
51	Audrey RinkerJohn Handley	86.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
52	Heidi BohannonMonacan	86.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
53	Delaney ReganLoudoun County	85.8	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
54	Adilyn SteinmetzMillbrook (VA)	85.5	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
55	Savannah MansonHeritage (Leesburg)	85.2	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
56	Isabella AguillonLouisa County	83.0	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
57	Sophia FitzerGrafton	83.0	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
58	Nancy VogelJamestown	81.6	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
59	Ashlin BarkerGrafton	81.6	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
60	Adriana MappManor	81.3	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
61	Maggie PittmanJamestown	80.6	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
62	Lula JacobsCharlottesville	80.5	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
63	Libby PencePatrick Henry (Ashland)	80.4	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
64	Ivy HawsLoudoun Valley	78.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
65	Ainslie EmersonLafayette	78.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
66	Penelope SeemillerWoodgrove	77.9	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
67	Ella CloveSmithfield	77.9	2026 · 2 meets	Individual qualifier (no team)
68	Sydney ScottLafayette	76.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
69	Sophie PlaskonJamestown	76.5	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
70	Abigail DivietroGrafton	76.5	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
71	Caroline TaylorDominion	75.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
72	Nadia LopezJohn Handley	75.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
73	Sofia HendersonAtlee	74.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
74	Safia HarryTuscarora (VA)	74.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
75	Reagan IrvineSmithfield	74.2	2026 · 2 meets	Individual qualifier (no team)
76	Ellie FetschSmithfield	74.2	2026 · 2 meets	Individual qualifier (no team)
77	Madeline BuckleyJamestown	71.7	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
78	Caris GarciaCharlottesville	70.6	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
79	Allison FlorkowskiDominion	70.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
80	Isabella BaldwinAtlee	70.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
81	Samantha HindsMonacan	68.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
82	Emily KobulnickyGrafton	67.8	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
83	Eliana FairDominion	67.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
84	Hannah YonasDominion	66.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
85	Caroline McHenryLafayette	66.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
86	Erin DeFazioMonacan	65.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
87	Kathleen KelloggJamestown	64.8	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
88	Natalya AustinJamestown	62.8	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
89	Hazel SemmelhackCharlottesville	62.3	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
90	Jayleh PorterJohn Handley	62.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
91	Jessica TaylorDominion	59.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
92	Sarah TuttleDominion	58.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
93	Mei Li ChinLafayette	53.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
94	Maria ScherbakovaAtlee	52.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
95	Izabelle RamirezTuscarora (VA)	49.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
96	Amelia MorganMonacan	49.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
97	Charlotte ThomsenJohn Handley	45.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
98	Alaina CherubinTuscarora (VA)	41.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
99	Elise SillmanTuscarora (VA)	32.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
100	Ashlyn KearneyMonacan	31.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven

Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.

UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS

0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners

Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.

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What this projection is not.

A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 4 State course time.
No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.