NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS

VHSL Class 4 State Championship 2026

VHSL Class 4 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Leesburg. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.

PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL

Calculated Oct 30.

A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.

COVERAGE

Who is rated, and from what.

Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work

Class 4 State 2026 qualifying teams, individual qualifiers, rated runners and ranked teams, by sex
Coverage	Boys	Girls
Qualifying teams	12	12
Individual qualifiers	20	20
Rated runners in the field	103	103
Rated district or regional races (one · two or more)	10372 · 31	10377 · 26
Teams ranked (five or more rated)	12 of 12	12 of 12
Teams unranked	0	0
Statistical Rating K (2026 scale)	487.341	489.861

Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v16, as of 2026-10-30), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 4A, Region 4B, Region 4C and Region 4D championships (Oct 27 and Oct 28) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 31 with two or more, 72 with one, 0 with none; girls: 26 with two or more, 77 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 33 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.

TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD

Boys · Class 4 State 2026 projection

Scoring order in timing-sheet notation: the first five places add up to the score; the sixth and seventh, in parentheses, can displace other teams’ runners.Lower score is better

Rank

Team

Score

Scoring order

Runners by basis

Blacksburg

1-2-8-35-36 (73)

2026: 6

6 runners

Blacksburg: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
1	Rivers Matthews	185.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
2	Calvin Wilbon	174.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
8	Isaac Devine	163.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
35	Henry Olsen	146.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
36	Reece McFall	146.7	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
(73)	Bebo Himes	125.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27

Smithfield

6-14-17-26-30 (53)(58)

2026: 7

7 runners

Smithfield: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
6	Caleb Greer	164.7	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
14	Logan Greer	160.0	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
17	Lucas Sistare	158.4	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
26	Caden Fontana	153.6	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
30	Brennen Thompson	150.0	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
(53)	Zachary Canady	137.9	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
(58)	Noah Owens	135.2	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship

John Handley

114

7-11-31-32-33 (50)(68)

2026: 7

7 runners

John Handley: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
7	Everett Otto	164.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
11	Emerson Redcay	162.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
31	Ethan Truban	149.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
32	Avery Miller	149.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
33	Noah Meleason	148.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
(50)	Tristan Wheeling	140.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
(68)	Samuel Plitt	128.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27

Woodgrove

120

13-18-19-29-41 (64)(75)

2026: 7

7 runners

Woodgrove: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
13	Noah Chinemilly	160.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
18	Alex Reis	158.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
19	Jackson Hershey	158.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
29	Kaleb Anglin	150.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
41	Blaise Crosby	145.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(64)	Truman Noll	131.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(75)	Michael Awenowicz	119.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28

Jamestown

125

4-22-27-34-38 (40)(66)

2026: 7

7 runners

Jamestown: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
4	Lucas Henderson	167.4	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
22	Ephram Stevens	156.0	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
27	Harold Dahl	152.2	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
34	Ty Smith	147.1	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
38	Alexander Gianoukos	146.4	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
(40)	Travis Smith	145.7	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
(66)	Mason Burkhalter	130.4	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship

Tuscarora (VA)

160

3-9-37-55-56 (65)(79)

2026: 7

7 runners

Tuscarora (VA): the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
3	Caleb Leang	167.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
9	William Wagenbach	163.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
37	Zak Johnson	146.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
55	Alexander Stolkey	136.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
56	Jake Miller	136.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(65)	Ryan Fincham	130.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(79)	Milo Getz	115.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28

Grafton

160

12-20-23-45-60 (69)(76)

2026: 7

7 runners

Grafton: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
12	Oran Barker	160.3	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
20	Tyson Britton	157.3	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
23	Landon Clymer	156.0	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
45	Evan Argabright	143.2	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship
60	Gabriel Shenton	133.8	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
(69)	Evan Britton	128.3	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Bay Rivers District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4A Championship
(76)	Isaac Jenks	117.4	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4A Championship, Oct 27 · also Bay Rivers District Championship

Loudoun Valley

163

5-16-44-47-51 (62)(77)

2026: 7

7 runners

Loudoun Valley: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
5	Isaac Stiltner	167.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
16	Jack Swartz	159.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
44	Henry Nardiello	144.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
47	Luke Bratrud	142.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
51	Sawyer Clark	139.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(62)	Caden Pelletier	132.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28
(77)	Caiden Wells	117.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: Region 4C XC Championship, Oct 28

Hanover

163

15-24-28-39-57 (67)(70)

2026: 7

7 runners

Hanover: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
15	Eli Etheredge	159.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
24	Eli Warner	154.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
28	Eli Hayden	152.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
39	Brady Street	146.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
57	Grady Timm	135.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
(67)	Daniel Truong	130.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
(70)	Damien Krakowiak	128.1	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27

Louisa County

227

21-43-48-52-63 (72)(80)

2026: 7

7 runners

Louisa County: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
21	Bryson Nemec	156.7	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Jefferson District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4B XC Championships
43	Carson Shepard	145.3	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Jefferson District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4B XC Championships
48	Bryce Whetzel	141.2	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
52	Brayden Nemec	138.2	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship
63	Caleb Spaid	131.2	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Jefferson District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4B XC Championships
(72)	Kristian Diest	126.3	2026 · 2 meets	Best: Jefferson District Championship, Oct 21 · also VHSL Region 4B XC Championships
(80)	Ethan Waggy	114.9	2026 · 2 meets	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27 · also Jefferson District Championship

Sherando

229

25-42-49-54-59 (74)(81)

2026: 7

7 runners

Sherando: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
25	William Norris	154.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
42	Huntley Combs	145.4	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
49	Noah Farringer	140.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
54	Austyn Zeis	137.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
59	Quintin Priest	134.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
(74)	Charles Russell	121.6	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27
(81)	Andrew Schaefer	107.9	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4D Championship, Oct 27

Courtland

266

10-46-61-71-78 (82)(83)

2026: 7

7 runners

Courtland: the seven highest-rated regional runners, in rating order, with team-scoring places
Team place	Runner	Stat. rating	Basis	Evidence
10	Kristopher Armknecht	163.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
46	Gideon Pierce	142.3	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
61	Logan Bergin	132.2	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
71	Jack Pierce	126.8	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
78	Andres Iglesias	116.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
(82)	Braxton Cunningham	107.5	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27
(83)	Liam Anderson	96.0	2026 · 1 meet	Best: VHSL Region 4B XC Championships, Oct 27

A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.

TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION

Boys · top 100 rated runners

Boys top rated runners, 1 to 25
Order	Runner / team	Statistical Rating	Rating basis	Team status
01	Rivers MatthewsBlacksburg	185.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
02	Michael TafeLoudoun County	181.5	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
03	Cameron PreiteJefferson Forest	177.3	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
04	Timithy WingeartKing George	174.4	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
05	Calvin WilbonBlacksburg	174.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
06	Andrew WellsBroad Run	171.1	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
07	Caleb LeangTuscarora (VA)	167.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
08	Lucas HendersonJamestown	167.4	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
09	Isaac StiltnerLoudoun Valley	167.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
10	Caleb GreerSmithfield	164.7	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
11	Everett OttoJohn Handley	164.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
12	Isaac DevineBlacksburg	163.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
13	William WagenbachTuscarora (VA)	163.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
14	Kristopher ArmknechtCourtland	163.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
15	Emerson RedcayJohn Handley	162.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
16	Luca CavalloHeritage (Leesburg)	161.7	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
17	Daniel LonderganDominion	161.4	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
18	Jack CassidyLoudoun County	161.0	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
19	Oran BarkerGrafton	160.3	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
20	Noah ChinemillyWoodgrove	160.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
21	Logan GreerSmithfield	160.0	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
22	Eli EtheredgeHanover	159.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
23	Jack SwartzLoudoun Valley	159.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
24	Alex WilliamsAmherst County	158.9	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
25	John StovallSalem (Roanoke)	158.7	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)

Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer

Boys top rated runners, 26 to 100
Order	Runner / team	Statistical Rating	Rating basis	Team status
26	Lucas SistareSmithfield	158.4	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
27	Alex ReisWoodgrove	158.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
28	Jackson HersheyWoodgrove	158.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
29	Tyson BrittonGrafton	157.3	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
30	Bryson NemecLouisa County	156.7	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
31	Austin ProsserSalem (Roanoke)	156.7	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
32	Ephram StevensJamestown	156.0	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
33	Landon ClymerGrafton	156.0	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
34	Cy KeeseckerCharlottesville	155.2	2026 · 2 meets	Individual qualifier (no team)
35	Eli WarnerHanover	154.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
36	William NorrisSherando	154.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
37	Caden FontanaSmithfield	153.6	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
38	Harold DahlJamestown	152.2	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
39	Eli HaydenHanover	152.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
40	Kaleb AnglinWoodgrove	150.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
41	Brennen ThompsonSmithfield	150.0	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
42	Ethan TrubanJohn Handley	149.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
43	Avery MillerJohn Handley	149.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
44	Noah MeleasonJohn Handley	148.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
45	Ty SmithJamestown	147.1	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
46	Henry OlsenBlacksburg	146.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
47	Reece McFallBlacksburg	146.7	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
48	Zak JohnsonTuscarora (VA)	146.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
49	Alexander GianoukosJamestown	146.4	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
50	Brady StreetHanover	146.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
51	Travis SmithJamestown	145.7	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
52	Blaise CrosbyWoodgrove	145.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
53	Huntley CombsSherando	145.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
54	Carson ShepardLouisa County	145.3	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
55	Henry NardielloLoudoun Valley	144.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
56	Michael DickeyAtlee	144.6	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
57	Evan ArgabrightGrafton	143.2	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
58	Gideon PierceCourtland	142.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
59	Luke BratrudLoudoun Valley	142.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
60	Magnus HermesEastern View	142.1	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
61	Coby WitcherAtlee	141.9	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
62	Bryce WhetzelLouisa County	141.2	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
63	Noah FarringerSherando	140.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
64	Tristan WheelingJohn Handley	140.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
65	Sawyer ClarkLoudoun Valley	139.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
66	Bryson WorthingtonPatrick Henry (Ashland)	139.3	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
67	Brayden NemecLouisa County	138.2	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
68	Zachary CanadySmithfield	137.9	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
69	Austyn ZeisSherando	137.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
70	Alexander StolkeyTuscarora (VA)	136.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
71	Timothy IckesLafayette	136.5	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
72	Jake MillerTuscarora (VA)	136.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
73	Grady TimmHanover	135.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
74	Noah OwensSmithfield	135.2	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
75	Quintin PriestSherando	134.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
76	Gabriel ShentonGrafton	133.8	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
77	Logan BerginCourtland	132.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
78	Caden PelletierLoudoun Valley	132.0	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
79	Caleb SpaidLouisa County	131.2	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
80	Truman NollWoodgrove	131.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
81	Ryan FinchamTuscarora (VA)	130.9	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
82	Aaron YanezaLafayette	130.8	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
83	Mason BurkhalterJamestown	130.4	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
84	Daniel TruongHanover	130.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
85	Samuel PlittJohn Handley	128.4	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
86	Evan BrittonGrafton	128.3	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
87	Damien KrakowiakHanover	128.1	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
88	Scott KramerWarhill	127.0	2026 · 2 meets	Individual qualifier (no team)
89	Jack PierceCourtland	126.8	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
90	Kristian DiestLouisa County	126.3	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
91	Johnathan WoodWarhill	125.3	2026 · 2 meets	Individual qualifier (no team)
92	Bebo HimesBlacksburg	125.2	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
93	Mathew Reel-MullinsDenbigh	121.8	2026 · 1 meet	Individual qualifier (no team)
94	Charles RussellSherando	121.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
95	Michael AwenowiczWoodgrove	119.6	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
96	Isaac JenksGrafton	117.4	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven
97	Caiden WellsLoudoun Valley	117.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
98	Andres IglesiasCourtland	116.5	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
99	Milo GetzTuscarora (VA)	115.3	2026 · 1 meet	In team’s seven
100	Ethan WaggyLouisa County	114.9	2026 · 2 meets	In team’s seven

Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.

UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS

0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners

Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.

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What this projection is not.

A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 4 State course time.
No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.