NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
VHSL Class 3 State Championship 2026
VHSL Class 3 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Salem. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 30.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying teams | 12 | 12 |
| Individual qualifiers | 20 | 20 |
| Rated runners in the field | 104 | 103 |
| Rated district or regional races (one · two or more) | 10480 · 24 | 10376 · 27 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 12 of 12 | 12 of 12 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 487.341 | 489.861 |
Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v16, as of 2026-10-30), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 3A, Region 3B, Region 3C and Region 3D championships (Oct 27 and Oct 28) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 24 with two or more, 80 with one, 0 with none; girls: 27 with two or more, 76 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 33 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Girls · Class 3 State 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Turner Ashby | 61 | 4-8-12-16-21 (23)(34) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Turner Ashby
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | Western Albemarle | 72 | 5-6-14-18-29 (41)(53) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Western Albemarle
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | Spotswood | 98 | 1-2-13-40-42 (44)(60) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Spotswood
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Christiansburg | 116 | 3-22-25-28-38 (43)(61) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Christiansburg
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | Fauquier | 137 | 7-17-27-37-49 (51) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Fauquier
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | Warren County | 169 | 10-19-35-50-55 (66)(75) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Warren County
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 07 | New Kent | 180 | 26-30-33-45-46 (47)(64) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for New Kent
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 08 | Maggie Walker | 182 | 20-24-32-48-58 (65)(77) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Maggie Walker
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 09 | Abingdon | 215 | 11-39-52-56-57 (62)(76) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Abingdon
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Cave Spring | 243 | 9-36-63-67-68 (69)(72) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Cave Spring
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Tabb | 248 | 15-31-59-70-73 (74)(78) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Tabb
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | York | 365 | 54-71-79-80-81 (82)(83) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for York
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Girls · top 100 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Samantha NitzscheWilliam Monroe | 138.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 02 | Brooke SaundersHarrisonburg | 133.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 03 | Peyton JoynerSpotswood | 114.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Hayley ManciniSpotswood | 113.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Sophie SweetJames Monroe | 108.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 06 | Chloe Von HerbulisKettle Run | 107.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 07 | Mariah ReedChristiansburg | 101.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Emmy DouglasTurner Ashby | 101.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Zoey DownerWestern Albemarle | 101.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Arbour ColeWestern Albemarle | 98.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Natalie VernaFauquier | 98.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 12 | Meredith GoodrichEast Rockingham | 98.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 13 | Ella StriteTurner Ashby | 91.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Caitlin SpringettMonticello | 91.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 15 | Faith BarronAlleghany | 89.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 16 | Ruby BillsCave Spring | 89.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Gretchen GassWarren County | 89.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Lily MorrowAbingdon | 88.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Raleigh HartmanTurner Ashby | 87.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Marykate MillerSpotswood | 86.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Maddie FrittsWestern Albemarle | 86.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 22 | Hillary OpdykeTabb | 86.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Molly HyltonTurner Ashby | 85.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Savannah SeidelFauquier | 84.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Elea Kate SoutherlandWestern Albemarle | 84.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cara GassWarren County | 84.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Lorelai DoranMaggie Walker | 83.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Madelyn HyltonTurner Ashby | 82.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Kaylin LarimerChristiansburg | 81.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Catherine HinegardnerTurner Ashby | 79.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Zara SchultzJames Monroe | 79.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 32 | Cora BryantMaggie Walker | 79.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Zoiee WilliamsChristiansburg | 78.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Andrea DallaireNew Kent | 77.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Vivienne FurrowJames Monroe | 76.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 36 | Alexis AustinWaynesboro | 76.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 37 | Gracie Gibson-HanesFauquier | 75.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Lily SayersChristiansburg | 72.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Hannah SeidemanWestern Albemarle | 71.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Olivia HudsonNew Kent | 71.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Melissa DoverTabb | 70.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Anne ThorneLord Botetourt | 70.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 43 | Charlotte OristianMaggie Walker | 70.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Lizzie CarmeanNew Kent | 69.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Reece KiracofeTurner Ashby | 68.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Evelyn ReinhardWarren County | 68.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Tabitha WilsonCave Spring | 68.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Lina Reyes YassineFauquier | 67.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Nora SawyersChristiansburg | 67.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 50 | Clara BakkerAbingdon | 66.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Nolan GarrovilloSpotswood | 64.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Nina Bucey-CardPulaski County | 63.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 53 | Daisy McCownWestern Albemarle | 63.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Catherine SmithSpotswood | 62.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Lila BaroneHidden Valley | 62.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 56 | Madeline SaiaChristiansburg | 59.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Nora JarrelsSpotswood | 58.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Audrey HudsonNew Kent | 58.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 59 | Emily KnoblockNorthside | 58.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 60 | Nicole DallaireNew Kent | 56.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Mackenzie FischerNew Kent | 55.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 62 | Lana HutsonMaggie Walker | 55.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 63 | Braelyn HandyNorthside | 55.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 64 | Eliana HunterFauquier | 54.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Yaretzy GonzalezWarren County | 53.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Avery ArmisteadFauquier | 51.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Tiana FlemingHopewell | 49.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 68 | Aubrey HubbardAbingdon | 48.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 69 | Olivia SmithWestern Albemarle | 45.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Julie WeaverYork | 45.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Allie MusilWarren County | 44.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Hannah DukeAbingdon | 42.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Reagan SmithAbingdon | 41.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Julia JonesMaggie Walker | 35.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Claire ChampionTabb | 35.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Anna LoweSpotswood | 34.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Abbey NicholsonChristiansburg | 31.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Alexis HessAbingdon | 31.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 79 | Olivia HypesCave Spring | 31.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Leela MauroNew Kent | 30.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Claire HillMaggie Walker | 29.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Lillian LeslieWarren County | 25.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 83 | Julianna TangCave Spring | 25.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Annabelle BrattonCave Spring | 23.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Grace KadolphCave Spring | 22.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Michelle MayTabb | 21.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Caroline NeiceYork | 16.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Alice HicksCave Spring | 15.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Alina HarrisColonial Heights | 13.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 90 | Nicole RooneyTabb | 12.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Madison RodriguezTabb | 9.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Madelaine KidwellWarren County | 9.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Eleanor WebbAbingdon | 6.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Sarah ShepherdMaggie Walker | 6.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Ariana PembertonTabb | 5.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 96 | Celia BoelmanYork | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Fiona WuYork | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Rowyn ElliottLake Taylor | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 99 | Patricia RamosColonial Heights | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 100 | Karmen MatthewsI.C. Norcom | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS
0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
- Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 3 State course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.