NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
VHSL Class 3 State Championship 2026
VHSL Class 3 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Salem. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 30.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying teams | 12 | 12 |
| Individual qualifiers | 20 | 20 |
| Rated runners in the field | 104 | 103 |
| Rated district or regional races (one · two or more) | 10480 · 24 | 10376 · 27 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 12 of 12 | 12 of 12 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 487.341 | 489.861 |
Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v16, as of 2026-10-30), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 3A, Region 3B, Region 3C and Region 3D championships (Oct 27 and Oct 28) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 24 with two or more, 80 with one, 0 with none; girls: 27 with two or more, 76 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 33 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Boys · Class 3 State 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Western Albemarle | 17 | 1-2-3-5-6 (12)(23) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Western Albemarle
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | Broadway | 59 | 4-9-11-15-20 (32)(36) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Broadway
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | Rockbridge County | 93 | 7-18-19-24-25 (27)(34) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Rockbridge County
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Christiansburg | 127 | 8-21-26-31-41 (49)(68) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Christiansburg
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | Fauquier | 168 | 17-29-30-39-53 (54)(55) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Fauquier
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | Hidden Valley | 178 | 10-13-14-66-75 (80)(84) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Hidden Valley
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 07 | Warren County | 216 | 22-35-38-56-65 (76)(77) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Warren County
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 08 | Abingdon | 218 | 16-33-40-62-67 (72)(74) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Abingdon
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 09 | Brentsville District | 226 | 37-42-44-46-57 (82)(83) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Brentsville District
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | New Kent | 244 | 28-48-51-58-59 (61)(64) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for New Kent
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Tabb | 254 | 45-47-50-52-60 (70)(73) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Tabb
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | York | 324 | 43-63-69-71-78 (79)(81) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for York
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Boys · top 100 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Christophe De WekkerWestern Albemarle | 178.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Thomas FulcherBassett | 175.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 03 | Noah KaminsteinWestern Albemarle | 175.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Finn SmithWestern Albemarle | 173.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 05 | Peyton AllenBroadway | 172.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Henry BowmanWestern Albemarle | 170.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Bryce DriverTurner Ashby | 169.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 08 | Ethan ApicellaWestern Albemarle | 169.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Leif GuseRockbridge County | 168.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 10 | Wyatt SemonesChristiansburg | 167.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Cerak AtoshmTurner Ashby | 166.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 12 | Julian GalianoWilson Memorial | 164.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 13 | Preston VaughnLord Botetourt | 163.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 14 | Max FletcherBroadway | 162.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Joaquim EdwardsMonticello | 162.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 16 | Enzo ConiglioneHidden Valley | 160.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Henry CoffmanBroadway | 160.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Silvio SicoliWestern Albemarle | 160.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Eliot VillagomezKettle Run | 160.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 20 | Wyatt BealeHidden Valley | 158.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Boris DmytriyevHarrisonburg | 158.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 22 | Noah StewartHidden Valley | 158.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 23 | Caleb HoseBroadway | 157.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Eduardo EspindolaWilliam Monroe | 157.5 | 2026 · 2 meets | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 25 | Parley StatonAbingdon | 157.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cj ForemanFauquier | 155.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 27 | Sammy EastwoodRockbridge County | 154.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Grant SwentyRockbridge County | 153.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Caleb CombsBroadway | 153.8 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 30 | Jack FraserChristiansburg | 152.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Emiliano ErikssonWarren County | 151.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 32 | George GeisWestern Albemarle | 151.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Tyler LudtkeRockbridge County | 151.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Blake McClungRockbridge County | 151.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Patriot FentressChristiansburg | 150.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 36 | Lincoln SteeleRockbridge County | 150.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Carter HenningNew Kent | 149.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Patrick MoravekFauquier | 148.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 39 | Liam HullFauquier | 148.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 40 | Tyler HamlinChristiansburg | 147.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Lee SouderBroadway | 146.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Ashton KochelMaggie Walker | 146.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 43 | Luke DornAbingdon | 145.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Will DitzelRockbridge County | 145.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Avery DeVillierWarren County | 145.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Lincoln FletcherBroadway | 144.3 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Jonas WestermanBrentsville District | 142.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Giovany Saligan-MedelBassett | 142.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 49 | Brian MartinezWarren County | 141.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 50 | Caden O'GradyFauquier | 141.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Max BodenhorstAbingdon | 141.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Carston DibenedettoWilliam Byrd | 139.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 53 | Benjamin WirtChristiansburg | 139.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 54 | Corvin CampbellBrentsville District | 139.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 55 | Isaac SchallonCave Spring | 138.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 56 | Jacob QuinteroMaggie Walker | 137.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 57 | Connor FitzsimmonsYork | 137.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Billy CampbellKettle Run | 134.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 59 | Arthur MolnarBrentsville District | 131.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 60 | Joshua LapetodaTabb | 131.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Tobias CrespoBrentsville District | 130.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 62 | Marcos OrnelasTabb | 129.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 63 | Abram ScottNew Kent | 129.4 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 64 | Chandler HillChristiansburg | 129.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 65 | William DahlquistTabb | 127.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Colt RenickNew Kent | 125.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Landon ReevesTabb | 125.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 68 | Vincent DemarrFauquier | 124.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 69 | George AdamecFauquier | 123.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Kayden ColesFauquier | 123.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Louis ReschWarren County | 123.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Gabriel PassalacquaColonial Heights | 123.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 73 | Pace CampbellBrentsville District | 122.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Lucas NegreteNew Kent | 122.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 75 | Ethan JohnsonNew Kent | 122.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Blake HillTabb | 122.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Dylan HollowayNew Kent | 122.1 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 78 | George PillionAbingdon | 121.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 79 | Evren RisvanogluYork | 120.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Chandler AshleyNew Kent | 119.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Eduardo PortilloWarren County | 118.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Ben DeckerHidden Valley | 118.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 83 | Charlie BrownAbingdon | 117.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 84 | James BrandowChristiansburg | 116.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Liam VirtsYork | 112.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Mason BarkleyTabb | 112.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Dominic ThompsonYork | 112.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Aulden RaineyAbingdon | 108.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Corban LashleyTabb | 107.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 90 | Daniel JarvisAbingdon | 106.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Ethan CoatesHidden Valley | 104.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Stephen CraigWarren County | 102.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Raul HerguthWarren County | 96.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Kai Diesel-ReynoldsYork | 92.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Michael DanielsLakeland | 89.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 96 | Peter BuckwalterYork | 86.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Xzavier Adams-ToneyLake Taylor | 85.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 98 | Jack SwankHidden Valley | 84.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 99 | Carson BurrisYork | 84.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Zachariah OravetzBrentsville District | 83.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · BOYS
0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
- Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 3 State course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.