NOVARUNNERS PROJECTIONS
VHSL Class 2 State Championship 2026
VHSL Class 2 State Championship, Sat Nov 7, 2026, Salem. Team standings projected from ratings, with each rating’s basis in view where it rests on a meet.
PROJECTION · UNOFFICIAL
Calculated Oct 30.
A deterministic projection, not a result. Each qualifying team’s seven highest-rated runners and the individual qualifiers are placed in rating order in one combined field per sex; the teams are then scored like a cross-country meet, with individuals taking no team place. It predicts no times and gives no probabilities.
COVERAGE
Who is rated, and from what.
Each runner’s rating is their best 2026 Statistical Rating on the day among their rated district and regional championship races, not their season best: varsity races only, middle-school runners left out, lower-tier races dropped. The field comes from the regional championships the coverage notes name, matched to that rating by athlete ID; a runner without a rated 2026 district or regional race is counted but not listed. How on-the-day ratings work
| Coverage | Boys | Girls |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying teams | 12 | 12 |
| Individual qualifiers | 20 | 20 |
| Rated runners in the field | 102 | 102 |
| Rated district or regional races (one · two or more) | 10290 · 12 | 10293 · 9 |
| Teams ranked (five or more rated) | 12 of 12 | 12 of 12 |
| Teams unranked | 0 | 0 |
| Statistical Rating K (2026 scale) | 487.341 | 489.861 |
Ratings are each runner’s best 2026 on-the-day rating among their rated district and regional championship races (v16, as of 2026-10-30), not their season best. Field: the top 3 teams from the Region 2A, Region 2B, Region 2C and Region 2D championships (Oct 28) and from each, the first 5 finishers not on a qualifying team, who run as individuals. Each qualifying team runs its 7 highest-rated runners among those who ran for it at its regional championship; the rest of its regional squad is not in the field. Individuals take no team place, so they never score or displace. Rated district and regional races per runner, over every runner the qualifying rule gives (each qualifying team’s squad and the individual qualifiers), boys: 12 with two or more, 90 with one, 0 with none; girls: 9 with two or more, 93 with one, 0 with none. A runner with none is not listed. The meet’s team list was not yet posted, so the field follows the qualifying rule alone. Regular-season races are not used; the 33 rated district and regional championships are on the meets page.
TEAM STANDINGS · COMBINED HYPOTHETICAL FIELD
Girls · Class 2 State 2026 projection
| Rank | Team | Score | Scoring order | Runners by basis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Clarke County | 61 | 6-8-9-16-22 (25)(47) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Clarke County
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 02 | Radford | 88 | 3-5-18-23-39 (41)(66) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Radford
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03 | Poquoson | 110 | 10-14-21-29-36 (38)(49) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Poquoson
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 04 | Floyd County | 126 | 1-11-26-42-46 (48)(55) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Floyd County
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 05 | James River (Buchanan) | 137 | 13-15-20-28-61 (62)(64) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for James River (Buchanan)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06 | Strasburg | 160 | 4-19-34-50-53 (63)(78) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Strasburg
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 07 | Fort Defiance | 185 | 2-27-31-57-68 (72)(74) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Fort Defiance
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 08 | Wise Central | 203 | 7-24-40-65-67 (69)(81) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Wise Central
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 09 | Union | 212 | 30-33-44-51-54 (82) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for Union
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | John S. Battle | 230 | 12-43-56-59-60 (70)(71) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for John S. Battle
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Bruton | 230 | 17-37-45-58-73 (76)(77) | 2026: 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 runners for Bruton
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | King William | 273 | 32-35-52-75-79 (80) | 2026: 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 runners for King William
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A score adds the first five team places. Team places count only runners on ranked teams, so they can be lower than the overall rating order. Tied scores are broken by the sixth runner’s place, and a team with a sixth runner ranks ahead of one without.
TOP INDIVIDUALS · RATING ORDER · NOT A FINISH PREDICTION
Girls · top 100 rated runners
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Annika BeegleFloyd County | 93.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 02 | Henley Ann CoffmanFort Defiance | 92.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 03 | Cora MosbyRadford | 91.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 04 | Elly NashAppomattox County | 81.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 05 | Piper DellingerStrasburg | 79.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 06 | Abigail CastleberryRadford | 74.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 07 | Lyla GerenskiClarke County | 73.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 08 | Cadence FletcherWise Central | 71.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 09 | Adella WatkinsonStonewall Jackson (Quicksburg) | 70.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 10 | Margaret MyerClarke County | 69.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 11 | Layah HeistonPage County | 69.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 12 | Virginia BeckettClarke County | 68.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 13 | Isabella ButterfieldPoquoson | 66.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 14 | Natalie DaltonFloyd County | 66.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 15 | Carlee BryantMadison County | 65.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 16 | Gabrielle PerkinsJohn S. Battle | 65.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 17 | Maddie DavidsonJames River (Buchanan) | 59.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 18 | Lauren JonesPoquoson | 59.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 19 | Maren PauleyJames River (Buchanan) | 57.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 20 | Morley HudsonClarke County | 56.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 21 | Journee PerryRidgeview | 56.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 22 | Kyley StinnettLiberty (Bedford) | 56.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 23 | Torey GreenierBruton | 56.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 24 | Olivia CloseRadford | 55.2 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 25 | Allie JonesLee | 54.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
Show all 100 (75 more)Showing all 100 · show fewer
| Order | Runner / team | Statistical Rating | Rating basis | Team status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Willow FielderLiberty (Bedford) | 53.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 27 | Hannah LoganStrasburg | 51.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 28 | Macy WeddleJames River (Buchanan) | 50.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 29 | Katelyn WolfordSouthern Gap | 50.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 30 | Naomi VillarrealPoquoson | 49.6 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 31 | Emma HustedClarke County | 46.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 32 | Lily HyattRadford | 46.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 33 | Fionna NieceWise Central | 46.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 34 | Mia TimberlakeClarke County | 45.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 35 | Jalyn OsborneLebanon | 44.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 36 | Mary Ann WristonFloyd County | 43.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 37 | Riley BirtFort Defiance | 41.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 38 | Ivy CuthieRidgeview | 40.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 39 | Cameron RakesPatrick County | 38.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 40 | Jasmine MontgomeryJames River (Buchanan) | 37.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 41 | Lilly DykstraPoquoson | 37.2 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 42 | Rain DavisPatrick County | 36.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 43 | Avery HamiltonUnion | 35.0 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 44 | Camila CruzFort Defiance | 33.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 45 | Alexis HasslerKing William | 33.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 46 | Riley SpainUnion | 31.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 47 | Kyra GordonStrasburg | 31.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 48 | Olivia HayesKing William | 30.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 49 | Mia GreenPoquoson | 30.0 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 50 | Keziah DelValleBruton | 29.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 51 | Natalie HendrenPoquoson | 27.7 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 52 | Macie FentonRadford | 25.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 53 | Peyten BeamBuckingham County | 25.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 54 | Jane HootonCentral Lunenburg | 25.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 55 | Rheagan SullivanWise Central | 25.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 56 | Clara CloseRadford | 24.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 57 | Alice HappFloyd County | 24.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 58 | Kinley FinksCentral (Woodstock) | 23.8 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 59 | Maggie MizelleJohn S. Battle | 23.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 60 | Abigail RobertsUnion | 22.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 61 | Mia MelendezBruton | 21.3 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 62 | Alyssa BootheFloyd County | 15.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 63 | Carmen RussellClarke County | 14.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 64 | Ava CockramFloyd County | 13.9 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 65 | Alana RobinsonPoquoson | 12.9 | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 66 | Grace AroseStrasburg | 11.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 67 | Leah LevinsonSouthampton | 11.6 | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 68 | Noelle WellsUnion | 9.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 69 | Natalie WechslerKing William | 8.1 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 70 | Alexie McGowanStrasburg | 7.7 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 71 | Madison BarnetteUnion | 6.5 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 72 | Miley HopperFloyd County | 2.4 | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 73 | Haylea WatsonJohn S. Battle | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 74 | Jayla PittmanSouthampton | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 75 | Kora BraunFort Defiance | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 76 | Julie RaydoBruton | — | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 77 | Aubree WilsonJohn S. Battle | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 78 | Chloe BacchiNandua | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 79 | Maddison JonesJohn S. Battle | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 80 | Holly WeddleJames River (Buchanan) | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 81 | Jacey WalkerJames River (Buchanan) | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 82 | Julianna SecristStrasburg | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 83 | Alexandra BonaJames River (Buchanan) | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 84 | Carlie AnunsonWise Central | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 85 | Camille HidalgoRadford | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 86 | Addison SturgillWise Central | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 87 | Lydia ShiflettFort Defiance | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 88 | Caroline TurnerWise Central | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 89 | Adria RogersJohn Marshall | — | 2026 · 1 meet | Individual qualifier (no team) |
| 90 | Haleigh BrushJohn S. Battle | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 91 | Ayden TurnerJohn S. Battle | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 92 | Stella SwatsFort Defiance | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 93 | Sydney DunnBruton | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 94 | Kali MaxwellFort Defiance | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 95 | Alyssa DurginKing William | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 96 | Olivia BassBruton | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 97 | Nayeli SandovalBruton | — | 2026 · 2 meets | In team’s seven |
| 98 | Brendy AbacStrasburg | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 99 | Hailey BarberKing William | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
| 100 | Anna BakerKing William | — | 2026 · 1 meet | In team’s seven |
Order is by Statistical Rating among every rated runner in the field: each qualifying team’s seven and the individual qualifiers, who score for no team. A rating is the runner’s best district or regional race. The coverage notes describe the field. Runners with the same shown rating stay in unrounded order.
UNRANKED TEAMS · GIRLS
0 qualifying teams with fewer than five rated runners
Unranked means not scored, not last. Their rated runners still appear in the individual order.
READ BEFORE USING
What this projection is not.
- A combined hypothetical field per sex. Qualification comes from the regional championships, not from the meet’s own lists, so the field can differ from who actually runs. This is not an official division result.
- Qualifiers are not starters. A team’s seven highest-rated regional runners may not be the seven who run, and a qualifier may not start; each team’s other regional runners are not shown. A runner’s best district or regional race may be older than the regional championship.
- Points are not predicted times. A Statistical Rating puts every course on one yardstick; it is not a predicted time, and not a Class 2 State course time.
- No probabilities. Nothing here is a chance of winning, a margin or an interval.
- Gaps stay gaps. Unrated runners and incomplete teams are missing evidence, not predictions of a slow or last-place finish.